A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; no retail rate changes, Auckland house sales soft, non-performing housing loans rise, liquidations rise, swaps stable, NZD eases slightly, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
None to report today, so far at least. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either. All updated rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

STILL FALLING
Dominant Auckland realtor Barfoot & Thompson ended winter with prices for houses they sold continuing to fall and stock levels at a 14 year high for the time of year.

HIGHEST SINCE GFC
Latest RBNZ figures show the total of non-performing housing loans has now risen above $2 bln and is at levels not seen since the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis.

UP BY MORE THAN A THIRD
Centrix says company liquidations are continuing to rise with the manufacturing sector most affected over the past year. Overall company liquidations rose more than a third in the June quarter from the same period in 2023.

TRADE TERMS AVERAGE
Our terms of trade moved against us in Q2-2024 which is the ninth consecutive quarter that this has happened. Perhaps a silver lining is that the latest year-on-year decline is the least in the series - and the last two quarters gained on the prior one.

SOON TO BE A $1 BLN EXPORT?
This same data shows that we exported 12.575 tones of gold in the year to June 2024. That brought an export value of $837 mln.

NZX EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Check out our quick update of how the NZX is faring today, as at 3pm. We welcome comments on that update story. We have added some key index fund performance tracking.

ENGINE ROOM OPTIMISM?
The Hunter Campbell Mood of the CFO survey shows a surprisingly strong outlook for growth in the year ahead, despite clear economic challenges, following on from a remarkably upbeat view of performance over the last year. Thirty percent of CFOs feel upbeat or bullish about company performance over the next 12 months and anticipate modest to strong growth, they report. Only 21% of CFOs reported revenue declines, and 29% reporting profitability declines.

ALLEGED ADVISER THEFT
The FMA has filed criminal charges against a former financial adviser. The defendant, who has interim name suppression, has pleaded not guilty to two representative charges of theft by a person in a special relationship. The FMA alleges that the defendant procured approximately $1.7 million from two sets of clients on the basis that he would invest the funds procured on their behalf. It is alleged the defendant instead used the funds obtained for personal purposes. The alleged offending occurred between 2016 and 2022.

POSITIVE AUCTION LIKELY
There is another full diary auction tomorrow morning and all signs are good at this point. Last week's Pulse event delivered a WMP price that was its highest since October 2022. The dairy derivatives market suggest that the Pulse price levels will be maintained. If that turns out to be the case, WMP prices will be more than +30% higher than year-ago levels.

DEBTORS, LIKE US
Readers might be surprised to learn that, despite strong mineral exports, the Lucky Country is now running balance of payments deficits. Australia’s current account balance fell by AU$4.4 billion to a deficit of -AU$10.7 bln in the June quarter. This was the largest since June 2018, reflecting continued falls in bulk commodity prices and higher income paid to non-residents. They ran a -AU$6.3 bln current account deficit in Q1. For the year to June, they now have a -AU$18.8 current account deficit, the largest annual level since March 2018. In a long look back at their balance of payments data, in fact the 2019 to 2023 period of surplus has been the only period since the start of this data series in 1960 that Australia has run current account surpluses. It is this recent three years that is the anomaly, not the return to deficits.

SWAP RATES LITTLE-CHANGED
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed again today. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -2 bps at 5.21%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -1 bp at 4.04%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 2.16%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 4.37% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.34% and up +5 bps bps from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is holding at 3.91%. Their 2yr is now at 3.93%, so that inversion is now a minor -2 bps.

EQUITIES MIXED & QUIET
The NZX50 is down -0.2% in its late Tuesday trade. The ASX200 is down -0.1% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened its Tuesday trade up +0.2%. Hong Kong is down -0.2% and Shanghai has opened down its own -0.2%. Singapore is up +0.6% at its open. Wall Street is still closed for their Labor Day holiday and the S&P500 futures suggest it will open tomorrow little-changed from Friday's close.

OIL EDHES UP
The oil price is up +US$1 from this time yesterday at just over US$73.50/bbl in the US, and at just over US$77/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON LITTLE-CHANGED
Today the carbon price is marginally softer today at $61.50/NZU. See our new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD DROPS FROM ITS HIGHS
In early Asian trade, gold is up a minor +US$2 from yesterday at US$2494/oz.

NZD EASES BACK
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from this time yesterday, now at 62.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 91.9 AUc. And against the euro we are down -20 bps at 56.2 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 70.2 and down -20 bps.

BITCOIN DROPS AGAIN
The bitcoin price is up +3.5% from this time yesterday, now at US$59,408. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.1%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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