Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
ICBC reduced all of its fixed home loan rates today. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
And ICBC reduced most of its term deposit rates today too. We know that more banks will be reducing TD rates tomorrow. Update: Westpac has both raised and cut some key TD rates by up to 20 bps. More soon. All rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
MANIPULATOR CAUGHT BUT TO REMAIN ANONYMOUS
The FMA has warned an unnamed individual for engaging in share market price manipulation with Sharesies accounts. The FMA concluded that the individual likely breached the Financial Markets Conduct Act by engaging in trading which was likely to have the effect of creating a false or misleading appearance regarding the price of shares for a listed company. The alleged conduct occurred over two weeks in November 2021. During that period, the individual used his partner's Sharesies account to place eight sell orders for the shares. During the same period, he used his own Sharesies account to place 11 buy orders and his partner's account to place another four buy orders. A number of the buy orders had higher volumes than the prevailing best ask volume and higher price limits than the prevailing spread. These order terms allowed the key buy orders to clear the volume at the existing best ask price, then trade into the volume at the next higher price step. As a result, market spread and/or the last trade prices for the shares moved higher on at least 10 occasions.
FINCO CAUGHT IGNORING CCCFA
The Commerce Commission has warned Aotea Finance for non-compliance with CCCFA regulations. "... inconsistent application of policies by staff ..." seem to be the cause here, rather than actions by the Company generally. The right policies were in place and generally followed. But there weren't procedures to ensure this was carried out by all.
AIR NZ WITHDRAWS FROM CARBON TARGET
Air New Zealand has become the first major airline to scrap its ambitious 2030 carbon emissions reduction targets, saying it is unachievable now. But it says it remains committed to the 2050 target it signed up to. Essentially, delays by aircraft suppliers to its fleet renewal plan means the measures they have put in place without new aircraft won't be enough for 2030. More generally, without taxpayer subsidies, the green transition struggles. "The rent is too high."
ONLINE CASINOS GET GREEN LIGHT
The Government has agreed to a high-level approach to regulating online casinos designed to minimise harm, support tax collection, and provide consumer protections - or so they say. Hard on the heals of Entain taking over the TAB and ramping up betting promotion, now online casinos are getting a local boost. Apparently harm minimisation can only go hand-in-hand with organised increases in harm. The lessons from regular casinos remain unlearned.
WAITING FOR BULLOCK
In Australia, they are waiting for the Q2-2024 CPI data to be released on Wednesday (1:30 pm NZT). Markets expect that to come in at 3.8% and up from 3.6% in Q1. And they will release the June month inflation indicator at the same time where a 3.8% rate is expected, down from 4.0% in May. This data will go a long way to setting the RBA stance expectations for their Tuesday, August 6 MPS review.
AUSSIE RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION IN THE DOLDRUMS
Meanwhile, Australian building consent levels for June came in weak, led by low apartment and townhouse construction intentions. In fact, the levels for these dwellings that are not stand-alone houses are now down at levels last seen in 2011. Over the past 12 months, there have been a total of 162,892 dwellings approved, compared to 177,936 in the 12 months prior, representing a -8.5% decrease. This too is the lowest number of dwellings approved on a June year basis since 2011/12.
A HEADLONG RUSH OUT OF HOUSING RENTALS - INTO AIRBNB
As you probably know, resistance is growing to the AirBnB-style short-term accommodation industry that seems to cannibalise rental for residents in favour of higher-yielding casual tourists. Venice and Barcelona are at the forefront of the resistance. The scale of the issue in Europe became clear overnight with the EU releasing data that shows these short-term booking rose a remarkable +28% in Q1-2024 over Q1-2023. It is an issue that is just starting (despite this industry pushback).
SWAP RATES EASE SLIGHTLY
Wholesale swap rates are probably softer again today at the short end. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -1 bp at 5.45% and a new 115 day low. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps from this time yesterday to 4.33%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -5 bps at 2.13% in an unseemly dive for them. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 4.43% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.37% and unchanged from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is unchanged at 4.18%. Their 2yr is now at 4.40%, so that curve is now inverted by -22 bps.
EQUITIES MOSTLY LOWER, THE NZX50 THE EXCEPTION
The NZX50 is up +0.6% in late trade. But the ASX200 is down -0.6% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened its Tuesday trade down a full -1.0%. Hong Kong is down -1.3% at its open. Shanghai is down another -0.5%. Singapore is up a minor +0.1%. Wall Street ended its Monday trade with the S&P500 up just +0.1% and far less than expected.
OIL WEAKER
The oil price is down nearly -US$1.50 to just over US$75/bbl in the US, and down a bit more at US$78.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE FIRMS
Today the carbon price rose to now $51/NZU and up from $50/NZU at this time yesterday but down from $53 a week ago. Please note that we have a new daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD LOWER
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$13 from this time yesterday at US$2379/oz.
NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is holding from this morning's open, now back at 58.8 USc and down -20 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are softish at 89.8 AUc. Against the euro we are fractionally firmer at 54.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 68 and really, little-changed.
BITCOIN FALLS HARD
The bitcoin price is -5.0% lower from this time yesterday, now at US$66,001. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been high at just on +/- 3.1%. A large sale of Silk Road BTC holdings is behind today's fall.
USE OF AI
No articles on this news service are produced with AI. Occasionally we use AI to derive images. They are always identified in the attribution.
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