A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; CPI inflation eases more than expected, rents top out, dairy prices surprise, Synlait surprises again, swaps uncertain, NZD firms, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes today here either, so far. All rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here. But we should remind readers that the 6.15% BNZ 6 month TD special expires today.

BELOW FORECAST
Overall inflation fell to a three year low at 3.3% in the June quarter. Falling transport costs and flat food prices dragged annual inflation down to just above the 1% to 3% target band during the June quarter. But, and it is a big 'but', tradable inflation fell to +0.3% pa its lowest since Q4-2020 but non-tradable inflation held high at 5.4%, and has now been over 5% continuously for almost three years. The gap between tradable and non-tradable inflation is its most in 20 years.

WHEN WILL RATE CUTS COME?
Analysts and the financial markets are divided on this question. We may have to wait a little while longer. Still-'sticky' domestic inflation may convince the Reserve Bank to sit tight on the Official Cash Rate at least for now.

FINANCIAL MARKET REACTIONS
Financial market reacted after the data release with the NZD rising +30 bps on the news. NZGB yields rose marginally, less than +5 bps. The equity market rose after the data release (+0.5% at time of writing). But don't forget, data like this isn't the only influence on market pricing. We have eyes on how the swap rates will change today. Those key changes will be reflected in the chart below because they will come after this story is published.

BUT WHEN? GIVE ME A DATE
Some banks, notably ANZ and Westpac, have changed their view on when the OCR will next be cut. Signals that are tricky to read from the RBNZ make this a difficult forecast to make. ANZ now says -25 bps in November. Kiwibank agrees, Westpac says November as well. BNZ has always said November. Infometrics isn't so sure and suggests it could be later than that (and if it is, it would be a mistake, they say). Bank analysts seem unsure, but when forced to choose, think the first rate cut will be in November. They seem united in this guess.

HOLDING HIGH
May's national median weekly rent for newly tenanted properties was up $30 from a year ago, now at $600/week. However it was first at this level in December 2023, and apart from one brief tick higher, it has flattened out at this level since.

POLITICS IS KEEPING INFLATION STICKY
While we worry about New Zealand's sticky and high non-tradable inflation, the IMF issued a warning about service sector inflation in the major economies. It's a global problem. A globalised world delivers inflationary relief, but the insulated sectors haven't so far. And that is a broad public policy problem (one that will be made worse - much worse - if a Trump 2.0 closes the US borders because it can't handle ordinary competition. Essentially billionaires don't like to lose their pricing power. All of us will suffer as a result.)

DAIRY SURPRISE
Somewhat surprisingly, dairy prices rose at today's auction, up +0.4% in USD. In NZD they were up +0.9%. The rise was because the milk powers didn't fall as much as feared, and Cheddar cheese and butter (and AMF) all rose, cheese by more than +6%. It was a result that defied recent trends and futures market pricing. USDA price monitoring didn't signal the rise in 'fats' either. Today's results probably don't change farm gate payout prospects.

SYNLAIT 'SURPRISE'
Although Synlait won almost unanimous shareholder approval for a major fundraising (to replace bank funding, because their banks seem to have lost faith in the company) today they told those shareholder that their stripped-down profit guidance will most likely not be achieved. So they have withdrawn the low "lower end of the $45 million to $60 million range" guidance they told shareholders in early June. There will be some pissed-off shareholders.

PICKUP?
Homebuilding is at a low ebb in Australia - bit the March results released today suggest it picked up in Q1.

PATCHY
In Japan, the Reuters/Tankan sentiment index for the factory sector jumped to +11 in July from +6 in June. It was the first rise in 4 months. Meanwhile, the index for the service sector cooled, reflecting a patchy economic outlook. The latest survey comes two weeks before the Bank of Japan’s July policy meeting where it could raise interest rates again and announce its bond purchase tapering plans. (The monthly Reuters/Tankan survey is a key indicator for the Bank of Japan's quarterly tankan survey.)

SWAP RATES HOLD? AGAINST INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be marginally firmer today. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -2 bps at 5.53%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -3 bps from this time yesterday at 4.27%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 2.27%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down just -1 bp at 4.45% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.37% and down another -4 bps from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is down -6 bps at 4.16%. Their 2yr is now at 4.43%, so that curve is now a bit more inverted, by -27 bps.

EQUITIES MOST HIGHER
The NZX50 is up +0.5% from yesterday in late trade. The ASX200 is a full +1.0% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened its Wednesday trade up a mere +0.1%. Hong Kong is down -0.1% however in another dip. Shanghai is down -0.5%, and Singapore is unchanged. Earlier, Wall Street rose +0.6% on the S&P500 and that is an all-time high for this icon index.

OIL LOWER AGAIN
The oil price is down a bit more than -US$1 at just under US$80/bbl in the US, and now just on US$83/bbl for the international Brent price.

GOLD HITS RECORD HIGH
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$49 from this time yesterday at US$2475/oz and a new all-time high.

NZD TURNS UP
After the CPI result, the Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from this time yesterday, now at 60.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at 90.2 AUc. Against the euro we are only up +10 bps at 55.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 69.5 and up +20 bps.

BITCOIN RISES AGAIN
The bitcoin price is up +1.7% from this time yesterday at US$65,770. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.9%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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