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A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; another Notice Saver launches, PSI terrible, REINZ June data not much better, tractor sale dire, swaps stable, NZD eases, & more

Economy / news
A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; another Notice Saver launches, PSI terrible, REINZ June data not much better, tractor sale dire, swaps stable, NZD eases, & more
15th Jul 24, 3:59pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes today here either, so far. All rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here. However, please note that Xceda Finance (B+) has added a 90 day Notice Saver account paying 6.00%.

FREEZING OVER
Another day another dismal set of economic data. Activity in the service sector dropped sharply again in June to once again be at the lowest level in 17 years apart from during the pandemic lockdowns. They were weak in every region and across all components.

MORE THAN 'A LITTLE CHILLY'
Housing market sales crashed to GFC levels in June, crashing to GFC levels in June. The REINZ describes the market as 'a little chilly', but that is just a euphemism. For the first time, the REINZ folded in listing data from realestate.co.nz showing a very sharp rise in the number of houses buyers want to sell.

SPENDING DECLINING FASTER
Latest card spending data from the country's biggest bank shows that annual nominal growth has fallen below +1%, suggesting sales volumes are still falling

JUNE TRAFFIC AT AUCKLAND AIRPORT STABLE
Auckland International Airport had 1.36 million passenger movements in June, up 1% from a year earlier. There were 745,000 international passenger movements which was +6% higher than June 2023. NZ passport holders accounted for 55% of all international passengers. Domestic passenger movements however fell by -4% to 615,000. The airport said the domestic weakness came from the Auckland to Wellington route, fewer peak days and more off-peak days than this time a year ago.

TRACTOR SALES DRY UP
In June 2000, 114 tractors were sold in the month. 24 years later, the tractor sales total was only 115 for the month. The average for the prior ten years for a June was 192, so June 2024 is -40% lower. Tractor sales are a good de facto indicator of farmer confidence. It is terrible, by this measure. June 2024 is the lowest since February 2001 of any month (apart from the April 2020 lockdown month).

CASHING UP EARLY
The RBNZ said it will buy back the April 2025 NZGB on behalf of the NZDMO. The reasons to do this when NZDMO sales of NZGBs are rising are more to do with maintaining an 'efficient' market for these pristine securities. But it will mean the released funds will need to be reinvested, and much of it should flow to other NZGB issues. The RBNZ already owns NZ$5.9 bln or the $15.1 bln on issue.

LOWER THAN EXPECTED
Despite expectations that CCP discipline would press China's Q2 GDP result to the party's target, in fact they published a much lower than expected growth result. The Chinese economy expanded +4.7% in Q2 from the same period in Q3, missing market forecasts of +5.1% and slowing from a +5.3% growth in Q1. It was the weakest yearly advance since Q1-2023, and comes amid their persistent property downturn, weak domestic demand, a falling yuan, and trade frictions with the West. Irt also comes on the opening days of the CCP "Third Plenum", a huge set piece of Chinese policy making. Real reform is not anticipated however.

FALLING FASTER
Underscoring the real estate industry problems, China said new dwelling sales were -25% lower in June than a year ago. New house prices in 70 cities declined by -4.5% year-on-year in June, after a -3.9% equivalent fall in the previous month. It was the 12th straight month of retreat and the fastest pace since June 2015. Only one of those 70 cities recorded a year-on-year rise. None recorded rises for secondhand home sales. Some cities are now recording -12% sales price falls.

'REAL' GROWTH ALTHOUGH MINOR
China also said June retail sales were up +2.0% from the same month a year ago, up +3.0% in you exclude car sales. At least this is better than inflation, so it records 'real' gains.

VERY MODEST ELECTRICITY RISE
And China reported that electricity production rose +2.3% in June from year-ago levels. It is crude, but this may be a better indicator of 'growth' than the official GDP data. Still, they claim industrial production rose +5.3% in June on the same basis. It seems unlikely unless they are making impressively large energy efficiency gains nationwide. (Maybe readers know how to reconcile these various data claims better than us? Please clarify for all in the comment section below.)

SWAP RATES SETTLE
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be just marginally softer today with downside risk. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate was little-changed at 5.56%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps from this morning at 4.37%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 2.26%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down another -4 bps at 4.51% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.49% and down another -2 bps from Friday. The UST 10yr yield is unchanged at 4.24%. Their 2yr is still at 4.46%, so the curve is now much less inverted, by -22 bps.

EQUITIES CALM
After last week's exuberant rise, the NZX50 is essentially unchanged near its Monday close. The ASX200 is up +0.8% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -2.4% however and Hong Kong is down -1.0% at their respective opens. Shanghai is essentially unchanged. Singapore is basically unchanged as well. Wall Street looks like it will open tonight up +1.3% if futures trading is to be the guide. Equity markets seem to be ignoring rising US political instability.

OIL HOLDS
The oil price is essentially unchanged at US$81.50/bbl in the US, and at still just on US$84.50/bbl for the international Brent price.

GOLD ALSO ON HOLD
In early Asian trade, gold is virtually unchanged from this morning's open at US$2410/oz.

NZD EASES
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from this morning, now at 61 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 90 AUc. Against the euro we are down another -10 bps at 56 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 69.7 and down -20 bps.

BITCOIN RISES STRONGLY
The bitcoin price is up +3.9 from this time morning at US$62,388. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.7%.

Daily exchange rates

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Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

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Source: NZFMA
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This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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163 Comments

by  powerdownkiwi  |  15th Jul 24, 4:04pm 1721016262

Dismal and terrible, David? 

Inevitable and long-predicted, I'd have said. 

No emotion necessary. 

:)

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by  Alex13  |  15th Jul 24, 5:33pm 1721021639

Cyclical...

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by  powerdownkiwi  |  15th Jul 24, 8:04pm 1721030641

Which way do you look when you're walking? 

Just asking. 

 

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by  Alex13  |  15th Jul 24, 8:23pm 1721031836

We look ahead to recognise the visuals of the path based on our PAST memory of this road.

We look up, down, back and to the sides as, from our PAST experiences, we are aware of potentials dangers we should anticipate.

We look forward arriving to the destination as, based on our PAST experience, we know that we will arrive at the destination and, also based on our PAST experiences, we know, at least approximately, when we’ll arrive.   

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by  powerdownkiwi  |  15th Jul 24, 9:19pm 1721035144

Doesn't work with a cliff.

Which is my point. 

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by  Alex13  |  15th Jul 24, 9:36pm 1721036187

Many cliffs have been predicted at various times, by those who thought and claimed they knew. The road, in the meantime, has been mostly up and down, up and down – cyclical. And if/when it came to a cliff, humanity has been good at building bridges…

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by  Flying high  |  16th Jul 24, 7:00am 1721070054

Agreed and well stated

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by  HouseMouse  |  15th Jul 24, 6:34pm 1721025264

DTE - so DGM….

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by  IT GUY  |  15th Jul 24, 4:05pm 1721016318

Broken ferries, Broken PM Aircraft, now we need new wheels for the NZ Economic bus.....

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by  Baywatch  |  15th Jul 24, 4:07pm 1721016443

At least we are back on the right track..pot holes and all...

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by  barnesn  |  15th Jul 24, 4:07pm 1721016427

Oh, tractor sales have dried up. Didn’t know the Coalition Government had pulled the subsidy on them….after all, that’s the only possible explanation for purchases of large capital items to drop off isn’t it? 

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by  Pat.T  |  15th Jul 24, 4:27pm 1721017677

I'm not aware that the government subsidies farm machinery, do you know more.

Farming and particularly sheep are dealing with low meat prices, $9.20 / kilo 2.5 years ago, now $6.40 ish, was down to $5.60 three months ago.

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by  solardb  |  15th Jul 24, 5:45pm 1721022356

Maybe they are waiting for the electric ones...

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by  Blackdog  |  15th Jul 24, 6:09pm 1721023781

To meet carbon zero tractors are being replaced by gas less donkeys

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by  Yvil  |  15th Jul 24, 4:23pm 1721017419

JUNE TRAFFIC AT AUCKLAND AIRPORT STABLE

The upgrades at Auckland International airport are starting to make travel better.  Different passenger routes are being proposed upon arrival, cutting queue lines markedly, well done!  The new carpark is good but the long walk at 5:30 am to the "Ride share" vehicles is a bit chilly in winter.

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by  pacifica  |  15th Jul 24, 8:35pm 1721032520

Except trying to travel through the Airport is an abomination, (zero accessibility, enormously faulty passport checks, strip search & grope in public security etc) and if you come through from domestic to international you better book a car service. Having been through the airport regularly the only thing I can say that is positive about it is that you should never need to be there for more then a few hours, (much like experiencing dental surgery with poor pain relief). There is nothing worthwhile at Auckland airport and the need to BYO any food & drink or have an enema beforehand so you never need to use the bathrooms is pretty high. It looks absolutely awful with zero style and design and made to be more winding and arduous with every development just to try to get to gates. I witnessed a bus transport from planes that failed to account for disabled people because the airport had no accessible services to enable transfer from planes to the terminal, (they had already prebooked wheelchair assistance) and then staff actually told the wheelchair users to walk without any aid to the terminal from a stop (a distance greater then 50m). I saw falls and extreme pain and staff who were callous and abusive. They also were trying to force disabled people up and down stairs (denying the airport had any lifts to airline staff) while zero assistance was provided, watching a disabled man try to crawl up stairs in pain unaided and then slip partway down again was an "experience". No cheap box of out of date crackers, chips, nuts & raisins would suffice as the apology for that trauma, (even the cardboard box they come in was worth more).

If they ever made the bar accessible and easy to find & get to I would be there instead because being drunk and near unconscious going through the place is a better experience then being in any other part of it and cognizant of the complete design blunders compared to even third world airports.

Often you have to travel through Auckland airport but no one who is not forced to actually honestly wants to be there. Protip on the food & drink at the airport, its not worth it, don't buy any (even considering the bar it would be better to take drugs prior to traveling for the same effect & safer). Starving is better then trying to find and then use the retched toilets. There is zero point to duty free, & purchases there. The most expensive items in their for sale are better brought elsewhere and for far less cost (plus there would be more options, more diversity in services/support).

Frankly even Aus airports are better. Of the new features of Auckland Airport pouring money down the drain when they were flooding would have been a better use. Or you know they could have upgraded the drains & weather tightness so the largest airport in NZ did not flood. There is a thought. Because as much as dry Auckland airport is bad, flooded Auckland airport or with slips while you are dry is even worse. 

Oh and this is not airline company specific because I usually fly for a range of companies. But my god the airport staff have left me wanting to come in with a power saw or hammer to destroy several walls and elements. If anything there is that huge distance that is impossible to transit through from domestic to international that they could fix for starters, and for some arrival areas there is a gate blocking vehicle access to what used to be a large vehicle pickup dropoff area (while staff vehicles and tour buses are still allowed through) that would enable being able to leave the airport within the space of 15m rather then over 250m. The gate can be gone with a small truck at speed. Then bulldozing that little barrier between terminals that is just for a patch of weeds and making the transit between terminals accessible, & covered. But nah lets force people to spend more painful time at the airport complex, often wet and miserable then make it impossible to alleviate the pain and bad feeling about the place. If anything the fact they also make disabled people feel worse then luggage, is just another point that makes me want to physically harm the designers, but for able bodied people the airport is a hellhole as well (it just makes you more angry the more you know of the harm they do to other people).

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by  HouseMouse  |  15th Jul 24, 8:53pm 1721033594

I’ll add to that list a lack of airport assistance people and nowhere for anyone to go if they feel sick. My father recently came back from an international flight, he felt very sick and dizzy and there are no rooms to rest up. He had to sit on the floor against a wall until he started to feel well enough to walk and get in a car.  It can’t be a rare thing at all for people to feel ill after flights?

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by  Jonny.Foe  |  15th Jul 24, 4:52pm 1721019144
  • Dad, tell me the 2024 story again. Why you and all the other young people left New Zealand.

Well, son, when your Nana and Grandad were young, you could go to college, get a half decent job, and buy a house in your 20s. But all that changed in the 80s and 90s when NZ Govt decided to embrace some wacky ideas coming out of America.

By the time I left college in 2021, a half decent job wouldn't even get you a damp rental to call your own. The only people doing well were people like your great uncle Rich who had bought a few old state houses to rent out.

Then everything got really expensive and I got laid off from my first job - I'd only been there for 6 months and I didn't have a car so I couldn't do the night shifts they wanted me to do.

  • Why were there so many people looking for jobs?

Ahh, in those days, when things got more expensive because of conflict and climate disasters, the people in charge used to make more people unemployed. They thought that would help.

  • That sounds stupid. So, how come nanan and grandad ended up moving here too? They had a nice house, I've seen it in the pictures.

Well, after I moved in Christmas 2023, things got worse. As more people lost their jobs, people had less money to spend, so more people lost their jobs. It spiralled into a deep recession and the people in charge blamed each other, then they blamed the people doing it toughest, and then they blamed people who had come to NZ looking for work. People got angry with each other, and crime went up. Some places were really unsafe. Nanan and Grandad waited until house prices went up a bit in 2025 and then sold up and moved here.

  • What happened to great uncle Rich?

Ahh, he had a nice place in a gated compound in Auckland where he was pretty safe, but he drank himself to death sadly. That was about 2035 from memory.

  • I'd like to see where you're from Dad, when can we visit?

I'd love to show you son, but what they used to call South Dunedin is underwater now. It's a water treatment plant - they're trying to get all of the nitrates out of the drinking water down there so people can live in that part of NZ without bottled water.

  • That's a sad story dad, isn't it?
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by  Flying high  |  15th Jul 24, 5:15pm 1721020552

The people most strongly in favour of environmental rules bugger off to aussie and other countries with less regulations. More moolah so who cares!!

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by  powerdownkiwi  |  15th Jul 24, 5:29pm 1721021387

Wrong.

As usual.

The cohort who 'bugger off' tend to be those seeking 'riches'. 

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by  Pa1nter  |  15th Jul 24, 5:37pm 1721021845

Riches or shiny.

On the surface, the Kingdom of Bhutan have a good strategy. They've eschewed chasing a figure like GDP, and instead try to follow GNH (gross national happiness). Retaining their culture, not over-commercialising everything, every house gets renewable electricity, water and internet.

Sounds kinda idyllic, right.

The problem? Young people want to gap it, because they're more interested in acquiring the trappings of modern life more than just living a relatively comfortable, sustainable existence.

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by  powerdownkiwi  |  15th Jul 24, 6:04pm 1721023474

Good comment - same re Cuba (which in Limits-to-Growth terms, is one of the smartest countries on the planet). 

It may have it's basis in short-term mass thinking; too few Cassandras. This is the perennial: 

https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2015/04/programmed-to-ignore/

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by  Pa1nter  |  15th Jul 24, 6:58pm 1721026691

Some of the problems also stem from a rejection of traditional wisdom. Enabled by superior information, particularly surrounding the origin of life and the universe, but now we're hell bent on continual momentum, without actually knowing where it is we think we're headed.

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by  OldSkoolEconomics  |  16th Jul 24, 3:35am 1721057742

What's interesting is the continued acceleration of our 'progress' 

Humans didn't actually evolve much in the first million years or so.. but just look at the last couple hundred years.... and now the last few decades.

We are moving a full speed toward self destruction and have our foot to the floor 

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by  Jonny.Foe  |  15th Jul 24, 6:30pm 1721025008

Environmental rules like not crapping in the village drinking water well, or keeping the soil alive so your kids can grow food? Those kind of rules? We've forgotten how to be human.   

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by  Pa1nter  |  15th Jul 24, 6:38pm 1721025535

The longest surviving cultures are those which exploit their land the least, and are more in tune with it.

Modern humanity places itself above all that.

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by  Jonny.Foe  |  15th Jul 24, 6:49pm 1721026141

Yes, agree with that. The challenge is that cultures used to confine their impact to where they lived.

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by  Pa1nter  |  15th Jul 24, 6:54pm 1721026453

That and if they over exploited their immediate area they'd die off, or move.

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by  pacifica  |  15th Jul 24, 8:51pm 1721033491

Er no. The longest surviving cultures learnt how to build sewer systems & water filtration treatment systems that were powered instead of letting human waste drain into the environment and ground water. They also learnt how to use irrigation. It is like you literally took the raw water marketing and believe that if everyone was drinking water with human waste in, and lived in buildings that had zero insulation we would all be better. Come back after you realize how much importance a single sewer instead of using a river was to human civilization and the key lessons of farming from the last 5000 years for providing food for large urban populations.

In essence drop the utter BS of "living in tune with nature". The last time humans lived in tune with nature life expectancy was near 35 years and most children died before becoming adults. But sure if you could live in an area for short periods, create a toxic environment with human waste and then leave it for more time in a nomadic lifestyle that never provides a stable lifestyle & are ok with a shortened lifespan and higher rates of child death go at it. Hunter gatherers were great until there was the inevitable extinction of species in whole areas as there was no way natural replacement was possible with a growing number of mouths to feed all wanting more chances of survival.

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by  Pa1nter  |  15th Jul 24, 8:55pm 1721033719

Humans have existed for hundreds of thousands of years without irrigation and sewer systems.

Dynasties that perfected it, are lucky to last hundreds of years. India possibly the longest current continuous culture, has still not really deployed it fully.

Tribal cultures have managed to exist in relative statis for thousands of years.

Any culture that manages to support very large populations using technology, dont have sustainable foundations. The resilience is only paper thin.

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by  powerdownkiwi  |  15th Jul 24, 9:24pm 1721035457

You are absolutely correct. 

Pacifica - so entangled in agenda - isn't. 

Single example of the Australian Aboriginals will suffice; no 'civilisation' has lasted more than a fractional part of the 10,000 years since we began agrarian lifestyles. They have gone 40-50,000 in one run. 

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by  Pa1nter  |  15th Jul 24, 9:31pm 1721035915

Hah, they were going to be my example. But an easy one, being one of Earth's oldest humans.

Until they had to be catapulted thousands of years into the future, in mere decades.

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by  RookieInvestor  |  15th Jul 24, 5:50pm 1721022601

You should take up Drama as a hobby, you are good at it.

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by  HouseMouse  |  15th Jul 24, 6:41pm 1721025662

What a cheap shot.

unlike you, JFoe offers both high intelligence and empathy in spades

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by  Frank.  |  15th Jul 24, 7:19pm 1721027963

Cheap shot or a bit of good natured ribbing? 

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by  gnx  |  15th Jul 24, 6:43pm 1721025823

a lot of emotive story telling there jfoe

let me guess...lowering rates will help?

yeah...nah

 

 

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by  Jonny.Foe  |  15th Jul 24, 6:55pm 1721026509

Forgive for me being direct, but you realise that the choices we have do not boil down to increase OCR, leave OCR alone, and reduce OCR, right? The one lever to rule them all!? My kids and my friends' kids are leaving the country because they don't see a future here. How much do we need to fiddle with the OCR lever to change that?

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by  JimboJones  |  15th Jul 24, 7:03pm 1721026999

What can we possibly do about it? They are going to a country that digs billions out of the ground, we don’t have that (despite what Shane Jones thinks). Otherwise they have all the same problems as us. 

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by  Pa1nter  |  15th Jul 24, 7:06pm 1721027173

They actually have way worse economic complexity than us (we're 46th and they're 82nd).

But yes an impossible task to compete with such easily obtained wealth that's only a few hours flight away.

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by  HouseMouse  |  15th Jul 24, 7:19pm 1721027954

We could have done lots of things. But we didn’t. And it’s mostly too late now. It’s now about mitigating.

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by  Pa1nter  |  15th Jul 24, 7:31pm 1721028703

We were never going to compete, and kiwis have been fleeing for bright lights for decades.

I fled to the sticks after enduring city living for decades. My now nearly adult children have/will leave, because the place doesn't have the opportunities of employment and entertainment younger people seek.

The nation is going to encounter the same phenomenon at scale, and the world has rapidly urbanised for the same reasons.

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by  HouseMouse  |  15th Jul 24, 7:36pm 1721028974

Disagree.

We may not ever have competed at the top top table, but with better planning and strategic investment, and better policy, I would argue that we could have been in a much better position than we are today. 

 

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by  JimboJones  |  15th Jul 24, 8:09pm 1721030955

The problem is that Australia is basically the top table. Can you think of a better country in terms of economy / weather / lifestyle / etc? Definitely not an English speaking one.

I don’t think we do that bad considering our location and size. 

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by  Pa1nter  |  15th Jul 24, 8:10pm 1721031021

Yeah I guess we beg to differ. Much of the trajectory is pre-ordained, many of the reasons people are leaving NZ, are the same pretty much everywhere, it's just human nature to feel the grass is greener.

There is actually a wealth of opportunity in this country for people able to see it and follow through. Just often not as an employee for someone else. It's just a shame that setting yourself up as an SME is being slowly strangled by ever increasing hurdles to entry. Everything is being funneled into being an agent for someone else to profit from.

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by  Jonny.Foe  |  15th Jul 24, 8:14pm 1721031262

Yes, this is the key point. If the country used it's productive capacity to support families and kids rather than rentiers, we could be the best place to live on earth. We have the natural resources we need to be ridiculously successful, but we are stuck in colony mode.

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by  Pa1nter  |  15th Jul 24, 8:21pm 1721031690

We've just spent 20 odd years making a huge investment in tertiary education, for no tangible improvement.

Then again we've taken a hands off approach to matching that education with our economic requirements.

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by  pacifica  |  15th Jul 24, 9:03pm 1721034233

I am sure many of the media studies and arts grads were valuable, (considering their overabundance in comparison to STEM grads who find no career growth or decent work options and leave the country promptly for high paying roles overseas). Some serve coffee at the hospital while waiting for specialists to exist, some become politicians or job recruiters, some end up in marketing roles. All leading me to think we need to build a few ships to travel to another place and some less necessary roles can go on Ark Fleet Ship B (The Restaurant at the End of the Universe reference).

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by  Jonny.Foe  |  15th Jul 24, 9:08pm 1721034528

Tertiary funding here is terrible. Just because it went up a bit didn't make it enough. Our issue is that most of the population (and our ecosystem) is working to create a surplus for the few. Private sector wages are $120bn and profits are $100bn... and profits are income for the wealthy. 

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by  Pa1nter  |  15th Jul 24, 9:26pm 1721035616

Tertiary funding in America is terrible. Uni enrolments quadrupled over the past 40 years.

This is net profit you're talking about?

So an additional $30b for state coffers.

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by  Jonny.Foe  |  16th Jul 24, 8:08am 1721074131

What? The state has given the private sector billions more dollars than it has taxed back for the last few years. That's why Govt net debt has increased.   

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by  IT GUY  |  15th Jul 24, 7:08pm 1721027282

We didn't like the Flavour of Labour's change, and now National not really offering a new Flavour...

Its pretty obvious we all want to go back to the free money from a housing Ponzsi

The party is over, they RBNZ took the punch bowl away and now all that remains is a really bad hangover and a lot of debt that's not supported by cashflows

Apart from the Spruiker's everyone with any memory or international experience knows what is coming, the debt is written off, or paid back.....

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by  Yvil  |  15th Jul 24, 7:18pm 1721027896

The punch bowl will be put back on the table, probably sooner than you and many think.

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by  HouseMouse  |  15th Jul 24, 7:20pm 1721028056

How?

Incremental cuts to the OCR will take a long time to filter through. Aggressive cuts cannot be justified on inflationary grounds.

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by  Pa1nter  |  15th Jul 24, 7:33pm 1721028817

Why not? 

If the OCR was hovering around 3 for a decade, with 1-3% inflation, logically once inflation is back there, why take the OCR from 5.5 to 5.25.

Regardless , I think things will shit the bed and we'll see some sort of more than incremental measure.

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by  HouseMouse  |  15th Jul 24, 7:39pm 1721029146

It’s likely to take quite some time to get back to 3%, unless things get really really bad.

And there’s no way retail rates at 5% plus will lead to boom times in real estate. Support for increases, yes. Boom times, no.

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by  IT GUY  |  15th Jul 24, 7:47pm 1721029634

You are old enough to know that once the sunlight comes up the party is over.......

Regardless , I think things will shit the bed and we'll see some sort of more than incremental measure.

we all know what that means for pooperty

Nats between rock and another rock, unless they borrow more then any stimulus will have  be be funded by tax....

A few roads is not going to cut it.   I think they are totally lost and have no clue right now....    they are probably praying the fed will have to cut hard, real hard.

 

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by  Pa1nter  |  15th Jul 24, 7:52pm 1721029968

You are old enough to know that once the sunlight comes up the party is over.......

I'm old enough to know that financial reinvention is the system's MO in dire economic circumstances.

Anyone expecting an instant recovery to be instant could be in for a shock.

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by  IT GUY  |  15th Jul 24, 8:02pm 1721030549

Correct , most smaller players will loose, The RBNZ will not allow collapse on its watch, but it can allow creative wealth destruction.

The US bailed out the Banks in the GFC, not the over reached pooperty holders.

Deposits will be safe, but as Bishop knows Pooperty is coming down hard.

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by  Pa1nter  |  15th Jul 24, 8:18pm 1721031525

The over extended weren't rescued but the feds' post GFC stimulus created the longest expansion period in their history, and commensurate property appreciation.

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by  Roelof  |  15th Jul 24, 5:02pm 1721019777

The worst recessions/downturns are associated with a declining real estate mkt.

Govt tightening the belt in the face of this...is politically risky....It's a Shame that fiscal/monetary policy isn't coordinated.

If National isn't careful....it will lose next election.

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by  RookieInvestor  |  15th Jul 24, 5:49pm 1721022548

votes are up for them currently and as Luxton for PM

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by  Baywatch  |  15th Jul 24, 5:57pm 1721023024

Yes the country is now experiencing the effects of its voting base..

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by  powerdownkiwi  |  15th Jul 24, 6:08pm 1721023729

I see the PM is up a t

Not sure that translates into votes, though - from here on, incumbents go out on their ear. Not fair to them, of course, they captain the trolley but not the track. 

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by  Blackdog  |  15th Jul 24, 6:11pm 1721023861

Yes 6 years of stupidity before they realised the folly of voting labour

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by  HouseMouse  |  15th Jul 24, 7:22pm 1721028157

Labour created much of this mess, but National lacks a coherent plan to steady the ship. Austerity is not what is needed.

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by  J.C.  |  15th Jul 24, 5:16pm 1721020561

By-product of the Ponzi in Aussie. The $13-billion land lease industry - "its growing popularity has attracted property heavyweights including Stockland, Mirvac and GemLife to the fray, all vying for a slice of the industry's fat profit margins and a ready supply of over-50s" -  is screwing people financially. 

So far, 80 residents at the Wollert Lifestyle Community have quietly lodged a claim against Lifestyle Communities in the Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal (VCAT) over fees they believe are excessive and in breach of the law.

It comes as a tide of discontent washes over investors who in recent months have been raising their own questions about Lifestyle after it tapped them for $275 million in fresh equity to grow the business.

Weeks later, in April, the company announced a downgrade of its new home settlements for the year to June 2024, which triggered a sharp fall in Lifestyle's share price from $18 to $12.50.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-15/lifestyle-communities-faces-chal…

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by  JamesM  |  15th Jul 24, 6:04pm 1721023457

Never, ever, ever buy leasehold property folks. It will be the worst investment you ever make.

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by  Yvil  |  15th Jul 24, 7:20pm 1721028040

Buy freehold land, with leasehold property on top of it.  Best deal !

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by  26@Main  |  15th Jul 24, 7:37pm 1721029051

For sure, I feel for these owners of Harbour View apartments in Parnell, they can't even give them away and it cost them $19k each trying to negotiate with the Anglican Church, they lost. 

https://www.thepost.co.nz/nz-news/350339402/anglican-church-holds-desperate-leaseholders-increasing-rents 

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by  Flying high  |  15th Jul 24, 8:00pm 1721030442

While the trust board arm empties their pockets, the church board arm will give them foodbank handouts. From the article:

"Valuer Gary Cheyne says the traditional residential leasehold model is not fit for purpose in Auckand any more, and such properties shouldn’t be passed on through the generations.

“Without a doubt the current conditions weren’t anticipated [in the 1920s]. I think there was a general view that the level of rent would always remain reasonable because land values were stable.” "

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by  longjohndrop  |  15th Jul 24, 5:19pm 1721020752

Swaps back to pricing from nearly 2 years ago. Let’s ride it down now. 

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by  Pragmatist  |  15th Jul 24, 5:33pm 1721021585

Last time swaps were at these levels mortgage rates were about 120bps lower.   Refix due end of the month...  I think i'll wait till the banks move.

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by  JimboJones  |  15th Jul 24, 6:59pm 1721026799

I’ve moved onto floating, first time ever. I won’t stay on it long, at least until the CPI numbers come out and then a bit longer if those numbers are lower than expected. 

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by  Flying high  |  15th Jul 24, 5:30pm 1721021435

The 114 tractor sales in 2000 were probably a lot less powerful than those ones sold this year. I suspect they would be far less capable than todays modern tractor. If you are going to compare individual numbers sold, then there should be a comparison of the models and horsepower ratings. 

Did anyone else see the young farmer contest at claudelands event centre or online.

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by  powerdownkiwi  |  15th Jul 24, 6:21pm 1721024504

The bigger point is that EVERY tractor sold from here on in - and probably from some time ago - will see the end of fossiil energy availability, before it has done its 'lifetime'. 

They're all destined to be stranded assets - unless we set aside land for bio-diesel, which of course impacts land available for food-production. It's just the other end of the burn, from carbon sequestration which requires acreage too. 

So much changes when the buried acres run down. 

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by  Yvil  |  15th Jul 24, 7:22pm 1721028168

You're a fun guy !

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by  Harvey W  |  15th Jul 24, 7:52pm 1721029976

PDK, which decade do you expect the fossil fuels to run out to the extent that the tractors will be obsolete?

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by  powerdownkiwi  |  15th Jul 24, 8:18pm 1721031488

Great question. 

I think the first move will be to hoard what's left, and defend it. That puts us out in the cold, earlier than outright depletion does. 

But I'd be surprised if we get to 2040, my private pick is war by 2030, causing supply-line shutdowns. 

If you search: World3, BAU2   (it's a single graphic; the 'double-resources' World3 run) you'll find the one which is best-fit after 50 years. Note non-renewable resources, note food. 

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by  Flying high  |  15th Jul 24, 8:49pm 1721033360

Just how many decades have you been spouting the same near term nonsense, at least since 1970 after the hippie era. Then in 1980s you were in regional council blathering on

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by  Pa1nter  |  15th Jul 24, 8:42pm 1721032972

The war would be less about depleted fossil fuels and more about global political fragmentation.

America ran and provided security for global free trade and it hasn't worked out to their aspirations. China expanded beyond Americas expectations, the US doesn't need oil from the Middle East anymore (and their involvement there has only worsened conditions), and Russia is, well Russia.

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by  powerdownkiwi  |  15th Jul 24, 9:36pm 1721036194

'Anymore' is perhaps incorrect. Fracking has a steep decline-rate, and they are down to a couple of sweet spots. Tar-sands don't do the EROEI, and it's light sweet crude that is wanted - so yes, the US were/are in the Middle East because they (will) need the oil. We burn 100 million barrels a day, and the US are 1/5 of that. 

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-states/oil-consumption  (the first graph - note it's not zero-based)

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/data-and…

Notice they seem to be off the unconventional peak...

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by  Pa1nter  |  15th Jul 24, 9:52pm 1721037159

For the past 10+ years, their remaining interest in the ME has been to secure the FF for their other trading partners.

They don't even have an aircraft carrier permanently on station there anymore.

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by  Pa1nter  |  15th Jul 24, 6:36pm 1721025365

The 114 tractor sales in 2000 were probably a lot less powerful than those ones sold this year. I suspect they would be far less capable than todays modern tractor. If you are going to compare individual numbers sold, then there should be a comparison of the models and horsepower ratings. 

It's potentially more than just the power capability, and also how the machines are used.

25 years ago, on a plot of land like mine, the farmer would own their own tractor, and maybe use it 50hrs a year. Today, I use a contractor with a much larger and more capable piece of farm machinery than I could justify, and that piece of equipment is being used up to 1000hrs a year across many other properties.

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by  Flying high  |  15th Jul 24, 8:06pm 1721030763

Agreed and that is where I was going as I "ploughed" my way through

Its still good to have a tractor on the farm in case the contractor doesnt arrive at the optimum time for sowing etc

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by  Pa1nter  |  15th Jul 24, 8:14pm 1721031285

Mmmm, I can't make the maths work, by the time I factor in purchase cost, maintenance, fuel, and my time operating it.

Will depend on what you're doing with the land a bit.

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by  Flying high  |  15th Jul 24, 8:44pm 1721033048

As I don't own a tractor its good not to have to worry about the costs or whether "the fossil fuels will dry up"

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by  Grattaway  |  15th Jul 24, 5:35pm 1721021731

The airport said the domestic weakness came from the Auckland to Wellington route, fewer peak days and more off-peak days than this time a year ago.

So less civil servants commuting to Wellington and no more consulting gigs then - good sign

 

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by  J.C.  |  15th Jul 24, 5:51pm 1721022706

Russia's rustbelt economy is booming. 



As Russia braces for a long war, state orders to arm, fuel, feed and clothe the army are injecting vast sums of money into the economy.

This has led to a boom where many expected western sanctions to deal a painful blow: Russia’s economy is forecast to grow 3 per cent this year, far above the US and most European states.

The effect is most pronounced in rustbelt regions such as Anton’s Chuvashia in central Russia, which is home to 1.2mn people and where Soviet factories have been revived and are working around the clock to supply the war. 



“Some of the most underperforming regions have suddenly started to grow. Manufacturing regions, areas where there is a lot of defence and related industry,” said political scientist Ekaterina Kurbangaleeva.

“The most under-developed regions and the low-income segments of the population are the ones that are winning,” Kurbangaleeva said. “That’s where the money is going.”

https://www.ft.com/content/b9749a86-b8dc-4eaa-a1d1-ebccf179d747

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by  Audaxes  |  15th Jul 24, 6:00pm 1721023222

Russia's GDP grew by 5% in the first five months of this year, which is significantly higher than forecast, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said at a meeting on economic issues. Link

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by  Pa1nter  |  15th Jul 24, 6:14pm 1721024043

Inflation potentially hitting 18%

Their prime male workforce has either fled or getting shot to hell

Much if their "new" war machinery is ancient Soviet era stockpiles being refurbished. Most of which has now been cleaned out.

Apparently it's better to burn out, than to fade away.

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by  Foxglove.  |  15th Jul 24, 8:03pm 1721030582

It’s getting to an interesting question as to whether or not Russia has been able to circumvent the sanctions etc and keep its aircraft flying and its armaments firing without replenishment of components and electronics  etc from  overseas supply. Ironically enough enhancement of independence in that regard would be an industry in itself and a bonus to its home security.

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by  Pa1nter  |  15th Jul 24, 8:16pm 1721031405

If you believe what you read, their airframes are stretching well past the flight hours their built for, and even in times without sanction their production rate was pretty low.

But a lot of their current munitions are either aged stuff from storage, or dumb munitions with tacked on guidance capabilities.

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by  Audaxes  |  15th Jul 24, 5:53pm 1721022803

China’s GDP expands 5% in H1

China's GDP expanded 5 percent to reach 61.68 trillion yuan ($8.49 trillion) in the first half of 2024, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Monday, indicating the world's second-largest economy has sustained the momentum of post-pandemic recovery, thanks to a continuous improvement in overseas demand, a pick-up in home consumption, and stepped-up government policy support, despite facing internal and external uncertainties.



In the second quarter, the GDP grew by 4.7 percent year-on-year, slightly down from the 5.3-percent growth recorded in the first quarter. 

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by  IT GUY  |  15th Jul 24, 6:47pm 1721026041

Do they ever revise these numbers or do they just run with the number they made up first time around?

 

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by  J.C.  |  15th Jul 24, 6:09pm 1721023747

Robbo settling into his new role at Otago University according to Granny. 

Addressing the financial challenges faced by the University of Otago will be a top priority for Robertson, 

So basically he will be reviewing other people's work and making the hard calls on cost cutting and how to increase revenue. 

Is he really the best person for the job? Surely someone from the public or private sector experienced with the nuts and bolts would be more suitable.   

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/former-labour-finance-minister-grant-robe…

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by  powerdownkiwi  |  15th Jul 24, 6:28pm 1721024889

Neither.

Sir Peter Gluckman and team are currently looking ahead, too. But both are hamstrung by economics-thinking. It's not the money anymore - the tertiary 'business model' was a product of surplus energy, always doomed to reverse. As per Health, Local Government... 

But teaching will be even more important, where we are headed. Indeed, it was willful ignorance - fiercely chosen ignorance, in many cases - which got us into this mess. So teaching will be done, but for less money. Perhaps even for none (some of us already do this on a regular basis). 

 

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by  J.C.  |  15th Jul 24, 6:46pm 1721026002

I hear you Power. Unfortunately if the 'limits to growth' lot take power, I feel that 80%+ of the population are going to have to be exterminated. The cities will be emptied and civilization as we know it will be finished. Just pockets of Jonestown-like communes left and a slave elite who get to work on the services required by the remaining ruling elite. Gates, Tony Blair, etc ( Dame Jacinda Kate Laurell Ardern GNZM might just sneak in to the top brass group - if she's lucky). 

 

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by  Advisor  |  15th Jul 24, 6:37pm 1721025450

You think this is bad? Electrical Engineers’ Association NZ just appointed a new CE who is not even an engineer by trade or qualification.

She has a degree in political science and the closest she got to working as an electrical engineer is having led the comms team at Transpower.

DEI at its finest!

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by  Pa1nter  |  15th Jul 24, 7:04pm 1721027076

Sometimes I feel like our governance should be similar to jury service.

Rather than electing a raft of career politicians with little to no practical knowledge or experience of the functions of their portfolios, we could instead draw a handful of field related professionals out of a ballot. I.e. every 5 years or so, 6 proven nurses/doctors get picked to oversee health.

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by  Advisor  |  15th Jul 24, 8:21pm 1721031688

Not the worst idea.

The current finance ministers of NZ and her predecessor without as much work experience in finance as a cashier at a corner dairy got offered the responsibility to run the national fiscal accounts.

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by  agnostium  |  15th Jul 24, 8:32pm 1721032340

That's generally why you need a well trained and highly qualified, well paid (less open to corruption and potential conflict of interest), insulated from changing political whims impartial civil service. 

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by  agnostium  |  15th Jul 24, 8:25pm 1721031909

I've suggested it before.

  • 1/3 parliament constituency MPs
  • 1/3 parliament list MPs 
  • 1/3 parliament random citizens from a ballot (like Jury Service)
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by  Let me be Frank  |  15th Jul 24, 8:55pm 1721033735

.zero constituency MPs

.zero list MPs

.100%  randomly selected citizens.

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by  pacifica  |  15th Jul 24, 9:14pm 1721034857

Outside of needing a quick intro to govt guide which our politicians already get paid by us there would be no difficulty for them to adapt to the role of a politician. Although it would be better to select people who have some basic knowledge of the departments they are paired with. E.g. don't put someone who thinks homeopathy can cure cancer in charge of our health dept & policy.

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by  Let me be Frank  |  15th Jul 24, 9:34pm 1721036065

How many in a Parliament of say 100 would think 'homeopathy can cure cancer'?....In a randomly selected parliament all MPs would be members of the 'ruling party' and able to select the leader and portfolio holders.

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by  pacifica  |  15th Jul 24, 10:07pm 1721038022

If you think any random selection does not sometimes bring up snake eyes then you have not tried even random selection with dice or coins. Given a large sample size the chances of all not being cognizant of simple medical practices for any one government is entirely possible and even highly probable (esp even given our current crop of politicians).

Sadly far too many. If we went for the bulk of the population instead of selecting from the plutocracy (who had more access to higher education), that proportion would increase significantly (especially since most fail basic high school assessments including for subjects they choose now). It is not just health either. Not many of the population know of basic STEM knowledge and historical human developments in civilizations (we canned teaching any history outside of NZ in large ways).

Too many think drinking untreated water & high risk food uncooked is aok regardless of the very well known death risks. Too many think we should abandon our key power sources and materials used for medical care. Too many think you can cure diabetes through faith. Too many think 5G is killing people. Too many think government and public education should be non secular. Way way too many think women's rightful place is as a homemaker, women's health is mostly hysteria (still practiced in our medical industry with functional diagnosis), LGBTQI+ are immoral pedophiles and that abortions should be banned, etc.

When dealing with the ramifications of poor policy are we really willing to chance it. To allow untested food and chemicals to be sold as food, filter our sewage through wetlands then drink it all possible options yet somehow it is not an ideal one for population health. How about letting criminals walk free without any protection for the survivors or the victims family? Our systems of government are not built on consensus to ensure the basic needs of our population to survival conditions. Many don't survive. It is by luck much of the population are mostly unaffected (not dead) by government ineptitude. But a great many are. Just look at ACC as one example for where we failed more then a million people.

 

 

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by  Let me be Frank  |  15th Jul 24, 10:23pm 1721039019

A number of points.

Nobody, and that includes those who think they do (i.e. professional politicians) has the required breadth of knowledge....that is why we consult experts in their fields.

Higher education is no guarantee of wisdom.

A randomly selected Parliament would not operate upon consensus (though it may)...it would operate upon majority.

You may see a risk of poor policy making by a group you see as (potentially) intellectually inferior....me, I just look at what we have now, and what we've had for the past couple of decades and realise, they couldnt do any worse.

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by  pacifica  |  15th Jul 24, 10:55pm 1721040948

Then you failed to see many self run groups & orgs now who not only did worse but had mass casualty events or even mass graves. Trust me they could and in the past very much have done worse. Actually don't trust me, lookup historical records. We have more then millions who have been severely harmed in NZ so it is not hard to find them. That is NZ alone. Go on to looking worldwide and through history. It is not a small amount of harm done. Have our politicians the potential to be as criminally inept as most the public... sure, but the probability is that it is not an event horizon you would want to see anytime soon without a few efforts at containment & prevention. Hence our existing methods to consensus over a range of skilled professionals and key stakeholders (in case you did not know you actually were advocating for consensus methods there).

We also have forms of consensus now in government but it requires a high degree of the public's personal involvement and time which many now do not have so we have in many ways we lost engagement and have weakening levels of consensus to even what we had 10 &20 years ago. Given much of the public can no longer spend 10 hrs a week solely on government participation then we should invest in more straightforward forms of consensus rather then hoping everyone in the nation has oodles of free time. Take even the levels of participation in councils for voting & census forms... this is not a good sign we cannot even rely on most the population to fill in a quick survey of less then 5min.

For example take a key critical unworkable change to gas fitters and drain layers laws. Not every plumber will have time to follow govt movements, be aware of them, prepare reports and submit to the proposals, track the progress week to week over the course of years to ensure it does not screw up their business and risk lives etc. Not even most engineering experts or major companies will. Not even most expert researchers (those often without field knowledge). Neither will most the public likely most at risk or affected. In essence so few do submit and most cannot keep abreast of updates that take months to years to progress because they have other jobs to do and lifestyles in NZ have become more time poor. 

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by  Pa1nter  |  15th Jul 24, 10:50pm 1721040609

At the moment you are eligible for the potential of days, weeks, or months of your time to perform jury service.

If we really believe we have a say in how the country is run, there's no reason you couldn't have actual public representatives having to be eligible for full time public service for limited periods. You would have to compensate them, but in many cases an MPs salary is much larger than the average salary of whatever portfolio they are overseeing.

The democracy we have is basic red team vs blue team competition that seems to now be incapable of performing basic functions, let alone our more lofty ambitions.

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by  pacifica  |  15th Jul 24, 10:58pm 1721041120

Clearly you have never understood why some people are inappropriate for jury duty or are disqualified from acting as jury on certain cases. Not even the best jury is qualified and able to be on every case either hence the judge alone trials because there literally are things that are life and death matters naturally complex.

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by  Pa1nter  |  15th Jul 24, 11:09pm 1721041746

Some people are inappropriate for anything, hence I'd advocate more of a majority board type decision making situation.

And again, I'm talking about selection from a base of proven experienced professionals. You will get the odd kook, but to me that's better than someone more in the dark (who can still be a kook) taking policy decision from often self selected advisors.

When did we vote for our immigration policy?

How many of us voted for measures making housing so ridiculously expensive and complex to construct?

Who voted for more health bureaucrats instead of more nurses and doctors?

There's very little consensus, it's a representative democracy and we don't really generate our own representatives.

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by  pacifica  |  16th Jul 24, 12:11am 1721045473

You voted for those policies through a direct avoidance of investment in them. You did not submit or raise any doubts, in fact you presented no stakeholder evidence and no reports even when able to do so. YOU COMPLETELY SAT BACK IN APPROVAL OF THEM BY NOT COMMITTING ANY TIME TO THEM. Hence the problem. If you have to invest time to policy to participate in it (where most of our expert consensus lies & most of our checks and balances with the public & stakeholders) then there is an issue when ever those most vocal commit nothing to actual effort (not out of laziness but more time poor). Even most of our key "experts" commit no time, neither do most of our major companies. Far fewer actually submit, most stakeholders go unheard and some who do submit actually advocate for direct harm to other stakeholders (yikes problematic in that case when direct harm can result in death but aok to some eh).

Likewise most experts are often those who like any other member of the public are equally fallible and often do not know the effects on key stakeholders their actions have. Why engineers and doctors must consult and follow codes and even then we have many thousands of code breaches.

No single human can be an expert without the backing of consensus by fellows. Likewise no person can be completely aware of the effects of policy on everyone which is why we have opportunities for members of the public to submit and voice evidence to critically affect policies being made and how they look.

Your health policies to increase back office roles actually did go through opportunities for submission and to date I recall only one policy being so universally hated for increasing back office roles by those it advertised itself to benefit that it was shot down as it would only increase barriers of officiousness without any front line changes or positive effects (the accessibility law - see submissions). All other policies that set up initiatives and organisations and even more offshoot depts went through, many costing us billions but not a single benefit on the front line medically and in fact it got far worse as the back office drained funds the front line could have used. Did you submit to the consensus process? Could you submit? Could most people submit? Could even most experts in the fields submit? In case you missed it the answer was no to these.

If you want a system without consensus look closer to Pharmac.

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by  Pa1nter  |  16th Jul 24, 12:16am 1721045806

Private citizens typically don't have the same sort of political access and leverage as entities that have more say, even in the consultation process.

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by  Let me be Frank  |  15th Jul 24, 10:52pm 1721040747

A parliament of randomly selected individuals is not a 'self run group'.

"Actually don't trust me, lookup historical records. We have more then millions who have been severely harmed in NZ so it is not hard to find them. That is NZ alone."

A hyperbolic claim, one you can provide examples of i'm sure.

You appear somewhat obsessed with consensus....why, i'm not sure.

 

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by  pacifica  |  15th Jul 24, 11:21pm 1721042477

Sure did you miss the 250,000+ of direct victims/survivors and in addition to that their families (intergenerational) for starters on a single limited topic scope (limited to people affected during a fixed timeframe from a single type of failure). I gave you a direct org to pull more then hundreds of thousands of cases from. It is not like we have a few Royal Commissions that have had more then 100 news articles related (my reference list actually went past 500 and then I had to hard copy the links from database files because I capped the data allowance on my apps for how many it could keep & export). Its not like the UN has many reports lambasting NZ on this to the point we breached and continue to breach UN conventions on torture (here is another tip the UN reports you can look up in case you don't trust or read NZ news or Royal Commission reports). But sure you have been absent of the most common news topics in NZ for the past couple of decades and were born yesterday. You also failed to know NZ and world history and have no idea how to learn that. If you want a direct copy of over 500 articles then that is literally trolling because there is no way you have the capability to even read one as you have proven with your ignorance of them.

But I get it, utopia, rose coloured glasses and ignorance are so attractive to you. Also those who absolutely agree and nod yes to everything you say without any comments. I don't expect you to agree with opinions but you cannot change the fact that NZ has severely harmed more then a million people and a significant amount of them in a fixed timeframe due to severe critical failures in governance. With most torture by normal people of the kind you would often see on your street, in your community. It is not a small thing to the people they killed, (some who got to voice in court all the harm before they died of complications, many who could not afford court) and their families. You can be ignorant of the facts but you cannot change those people & their families. They did not fail to exist simply because of your failure to see them. They exist, what happened to them existed and far too many died and far too many members of their family were deeply scarred long term. Come back when you find out how to lookup a Royal Commission series of references (one site has over 100 reports, videos and transcripts, in this case I really would suggest the cooper legal law ones for a good overview).

 

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by  Pa1nter  |  15th Jul 24, 11:20pm 1721042439

You keep talking about history, deaths and consensus, but over the past hundred years, with the exception of Japan most of the politically derived harm is usually a result of when the power is seized by groups thinking they know what's best for everyone.

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by  pacifica  |  16th Jul 24, 1:05am 1721048734

Er no. But I get it. You are ignorant of much of history, especially recent history.

Even if you take events of the Rwanda genocide you can hardly say the government was the one to cause most deaths. It was not even in a position to prevent or stop the harm taking place perpetrated by members of the public and those who were outside of government.

Systemic harm exists and often those at the lower end are committing the most abuse, often unchecked by those in power. In the last 100 years we did have genocide events (using the most severe def of genocide), but we also have genocide events (using the more open def of genocide). But the most events occurred not from single political derived harm of those in power but of harm from members of the public who are not in power. Given the reach of many organizations in NZ that can be greater then direct government influence alone they did have much greater & wider levels of harm.

However the government of the time responsible for enacting laws should have been responsible in criminal prosecution and prevention of harm. It failed that, however they did not directly harm or set policies to enact it. The torture was perpetrated by people who had no power to direct organizations and they were completely able to abuse, harm and kill others. We called it care when a child was arsed raped with a pipe to the point they got a sepsis infection when parts broke off inside them. We called it care when teeth were pulled without pain relief to enable force feeding. We called it care when kids were electrocuted without any pain relief and to parts of their bodies and we called it care when we paralyzed parts of them. Practices of abuse so commonplace and accepted (not by the medical industry but by the public that these people could be abused worse then animals without punishment), as were the deaths that much of the public who were alive at the time don't even bother to call it out now. All things we enabled & through ignorance of the public now of NZ recent past, and our lack of government oversight or powers to prevent we continue and knowingly persist in breaching UN conventions on torture and continue to cause deaths to many of the survivors and their families.

There are far more events in NZ history in the past 100 years even if I look outside the limited scope of the last few decades, and for a single issue. If you fail to see them by lack of research that is your failure but a few genocides worldwide are not mere things to overlook. I get it the concept of systemic harm, torture, abuse and killings are a bit outside of your wheelhouse. They still happened and too this day none of those responsible faced proper criminal charges and sentencing. It is all a bit brushed under the rug so ignorance can perpetuate even with over 100 articles and over 500 public references.

But I am sure you were never sterilized because of your race, religion or ability at birth. You never had family affected so you are alright jack. How on earth could something outside of your experience exist except for the hundreds of publicly documented pieces of evidence of it and many thousands of pieces of closed to the public evidence.

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by  Pa1nter  |  16th Jul 24, 12:20am 1721046036

I have a fairly extensive formal education and knowledge of history built up over decades. Mostly specialized in the last 200 years but with a fairly decent background framework going back to the Neolithic Revolution.

The issue seems more down to your specific interpretation or re-defining of terms.

I also have a severely disabled close relative who was subjected to electro shock therapy and other procedures which are deemed barbaric by today's standards. But I don't view it as deliberate as yourself, because even today we have fairly primitive understanding of how to adequately approach many disabilities. That and I can definitely identify how much better this person has been looked after by our state, compared to most of the rest of the world.

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by  pacifica  |  16th Jul 24, 12:30am 1721046605

Unmodified ECT was never treatment and was always viewed as torture in the medical profession. Lookup the difference in modified and unmodified ECT. Lookup the Gallen report on it. Even a yokel could understand purposely electrocuting someone to cause them severe pain is torture. Paralyzing them on purpose is torture. Likewise raping children was never acceptable medical treatment. But maybe it was different in your family. Maybe to you that is acceptable disability treatment. No wonder it was the public who mass approved of Aktion T4. I feel very sorry for your family member to be related to a person like you after your statements and for your ignorance of basic torture even the US is not likely to use in the worst interrogation.

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by  Pa1nter  |  16th Jul 24, 12:29am 1721046562

So what, you're now accusing my family of raping our relative, or somehow thinking that's ok?

This person has had to spend 50+ years undergoing a raft of treatments and methods, spending years under serious distress, causing self harm and trauma, and medical professionals have only just managed to work out a pharmaceutical and behavioural approach to helping them lead a relatively calm and peaceful life.

If they were born today, who knows what sort of life they could have had. We have just had to accept they were born in a much more primitive time for the condition they were born with.

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by  pacifica  |  16th Jul 24, 12:41am 1721047315

Unmodified ECT was never treatment and was always viewed as torture in the medical profession At The Time.

It was never medical treatment and no medical professional ever admitted it was standard practice at the time. All experts in the field at the time openly stated it was torture. All thought there should have been criminal prosecution but since the time for limitations ran out before survivors could make their case none could be brought. Please educate yourself. It was never standard or even medical practice. Neither was raping children, nor was paralyzing them as punishment. None of it was actual medical practice. ALL of it was torture recognized by the profession at the time and yet never prosecuted because survivors families did nothing to push for justice, survivors were often made powerless. By brushing torture under the rug as aok because it must be how you treat disabled people by their birth it is far more horrific ethics by you. Geez just ignorance would have been fine but you knew of the more then a million from the outset and yet thought: hey killing & torturing kids was fine so long as they are disabled and you can claim it is medical even against all medical evidence from the time.

That is why I am very sorry towards your family member to have someone like you who literally makes the journey so much harder because you are literally devaluing their life and saying that torture of them because of their birth was just what they could expect. They had no value in their life compared to you. How on earth do you sleep being such an awful person that you would do that to your own family...

 

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by  Pa1nter  |  16th Jul 24, 12:38am 1721047098

I feel very sorry for your family member to be related to a person like you after your statements and for your ignorance of basic torture even the US is not likely to use in the worst interrogation.

Well, you need to develop some better question asking or decision making tools.

I wasn't involved in this persons early life treatment regime, I was born after most of it was done. All I have done to them is try to care and relate to this person as best I can, given our differences in communication and experiential ability. Despite the differences I manage sometimes to help shine a light on them, and that light gets returned from them to me, if I'm doing it properly.

You could probably do with dialling down the animosity and ignorant assumptions.

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by  pacifica  |  16th Jul 24, 12:43am 1721047415

Geez just ignorance would have been fine but you knew of the more then a million from the outset and yet thought: hey killing & torturing kids was fine so long as they are disabled and you can claim it is medical even against all medical evidence from the time.

I am very sorry towards your family member to have someone like you who literally makes the journey so much harder because you are literally devaluing their life and saying that torture of them because of their birth was just what they could expect. They had no value in their life compared to you. How on earth do you sleep being such an awful person that you would do that to your own family...

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by  Pa1nter  |  16th Jul 24, 12:57am 1721048252

The great news is they can't read or have conversations involving more than about 2 or 3 words, so the extent to which you think I'm devaluing their life bares no difference on the actual amount and value of positive interactions I have with them.

They'd probably pick up from your vibe that you're a bit of a dick though.

Again, turn down the hyperbole bro, it's destroying whatever well intentioned point you're trying to make.

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by  pacifica  |  16th Jul 24, 12:58am 1721048299

As an apologist for electrical torture against your own family and then extrapolating that to be an apologist for the harm caused to more then a million people in NZ you are an even bigger dick then I could imagine.

You should not be in charge of pets let alone people.

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by  Pa1nter  |  16th Jul 24, 1:06am 1721048788

Apologist is your word, not mine.

Life is full of misguided acts and misfortune. I've had to experience some directly, but no where near as bad as others close to me, disabled or no.

I don't have a time machine, and the road to retribution is harsh and mostly fruitless. I find the best use of my time isn't to stand on some soap box, but to love and support those around me the best I can. This I feel has the most positive direct impact I can have on these people's lives. Being in a constant state of anger, or spending mental energy looking back would only dilute my ability to relate to these people positively.

You obviously differ in approach, and are extremely intolerant of anyone who won't blindly nod or bend the knee.

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by  pacifica  |  16th Jul 24, 2:02am 1721052164

Bend the knee to what. You were the one who disputed that the events occurred, that it occurred en masse to many in NZ and when you openly admitted oh wait it happened to family but it was ok because that was what they and those like them should have expected at the time (in an attempt to deflect) you then broke your own argument that the events never occurred. Because if they occurred to your own family and the others like them how could they have never existed?

You then claimed it is ok to abuse those because it was ok at the time (which is never was as stated by the medical profession) and it was better then what they could expect in other nations... what torture, rape and death of many was better then the treatment in other nations. Er are you going by the length of time of the torture or how about the electrical power used? Because in many other nations that did not happen in those decades... they moved past that point of torturing people using the most extreme means because of their birth long before, you know after the genocide of disabled people it became unfashionable to continue practices used in the process of a genocide.

You also claimed no other mass death event occurred that was not caused by the political leaders worldwide and yet we know of many genocides (using the stricter definition of intentional mass killing of people because of their race, religion, or ability). I even gave a clear example for which you also continued to dispute it by feigning ignorance and trying to reach for an even longer history timeline even though the genocide occurred in our lifetimes.

This is not about bending the knee but you certainly destroyed your own arguments in an effort of one upmanship that showed even more concerning lack of ethics by you towards others and how poor choices of members of the public can lead to disastrous long term effects that take many generations to correct and provide adequate redress.

BTW: Do you know that many people who were tortured were denied education and language during their "stays" so many have been denied the opportunity for much voice at all. Because if you are beaten for speaking, denied any education and beaten for trying to learn then in essence you don't. In many cases they called the behavioral response reactions things like the Kimberly cringe as people as a whole in the buildings instantly flinched in fear if a staff member approached them. They literally lost words and vocabulary in the organizations and no education support was provided to regain the lost opportunity for language & education. This is perhaps something you should be cognizant of as well. So while you clearly were feigning not knowing of the harm to millions, claiming hyperbole, you then professed direct knowledge, you then also appear as damaged as you are ok with the torture to others like family and offer no long term support to help them have that redress. Because after all what responsibility does the state & family have to their care after what was taken from them. Do you help seek even recognition for others, nope you dispute their existence and then deny they have the rights to redress and recognition of the torture.

What value do you place on your ability to live a life free of torture, to have education in language & skills so you can care for yourself, to be independent and have romantic relationships. What value do you place on your life that is not available to them and do you even care if that redress is still denied. Your answer is you clearly don't care and sure let them live a life of destitution without the necessary medical and vocational support, let them be forever recovering from trauma without justice or healing. Not your problem. After all what care should you have if you were denied your life and were in their position instead. You have a voice. What if you never fully had one and could never work or seek medical care that you need when you need it, could never seek justice. 

While we claim the politicians have been ineffectual in providing adequate redress & not reading reports, you, who have a family member involved, did not bother either and that makes you measurably worse then any of our current politicians in that position. Because you have direct knowledge. Your claiming that they did not exist or that it was somehow ok or better then they could expect elsewhere is even worse. Having anyone like you as part of a make up of any government is pretty bad.

Any random lottery cannot test for severe ethical failings nor can it test for expert knowledge. Hence we need adequate controls and protection measures for consensus so many experts can have meaningful contributions, and all NZders have living needs and essential survival needs available. With things like being able to live free of torture, having access to housing, food, education and essential medical care that should be a given but obviously some members of the public still struggle upholding those. I get some people think 'let the families take on the full medical & housing costs for their family member's care' and provide no nursing or GP support subsidies for everyone. But lets remember not everyone has a family so invested in their care and future life & opportunities. Some people have family who are dead so they cannot provide for their loved ones. Some have family who are so destitute they can barely afford their own living let alone that of other family members. Some just are more concerning in their approach. 

We don't have a government that is adequate now and if politicians are barely competent sure lets roll the dice but lets also remove the wheel and ensure there is no accelerator and large protections in place before we put anyone in the drivers seat. Lets have the drivers seat be purely visual not actual. Lets use a system where the control, should there be any, is in better hands and has a more reasoned approach based on a wealth of experience rather then a desert. If we are to accept that politicians and other people would be equally as capable we also need to have in place far better methods of consensus then the submission approach that most people cannot participate in and even their family would not participate in for them on their behalf if they cannot. 

 

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by  Pa1nter  |  16th Jul 24, 7:48am 1721072896

You were the one who disputed that the events occurred

No, from the get go what you were trying to convey wasn't overly clear, as if you were continuing a discussion that was 90% concluded, without the rest of the audience being present for the majority of it.

Like that very long post you've made, which is full of false assumptions on my behalf, and structured in such a way that makes having any level of civil discussion about some or any of it fairly futile.

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by  pacifica  |  16th Jul 24, 7:22pm 1721114570

I get it reading text is not your thing and you get distracted easily. I have made clear points:

that we cannot trust any in political roles,

that random selection of the public is a very bad idea (worse then our current crop of politicians so if we were to do it they should be purely figureheads with no chance to affect things),

that any major control should be removed and spread better amongst those with the field expertise & stakeholders,

we should have more visibility and say in the management of departments,

and that more avenues for consensus of the public (stakeholders affected by a policy & experts) is needed that enables more actual participation without needing to follow and track every single policy for hours per week.

For an example of changes that had such low expert and stakeholder input take the DHB merging to one org and then the splitting again to 2 health orgs that cost billions for the result of a much worse health system service with even less access to core services in many regions and far less local input.

You just provided a very good example of why we cannot trust anyone via random selection along the way.

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by  Let me be Frank  |  16th Jul 24, 12:17am 1721045852

And your suggestion is what?...

a commission would not have been held under a randomly selected Parliament?

abuse in care would have been more prevalent if Parliament was randomly selected?

a randomly selected Parliament would condone such acts?

 

 

 

 

 

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by  pacifica  |  16th Jul 24, 12:28am 1721046482

You seem to miss the point that members of the public as I have always argued are not only as likely to cause harm as politicians but more likely. Esp given our increasing lack of general education. Even you became an apologist because you think it was ok to torture more then a quarter million people due to their birth and then traumatize, &harm their families as well leading to the inter generational harm and abuse of more then a million people. Even ACC records of this are very brutal. Congrats for proving you should never be in a position to hold any power or decision making that could affect the lives of others.

That even a few "experts" in a single field does not remove the need for consensus and inclusion of stakeholders in policy design and processes. That even politicians & dept experts does not remove our need to seek a level of consensus even though we now need to rethink it given most people & experts in the field being affected do not have the time for submissions.

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by  Let me be Frank  |  16th Jul 24, 12:43am 1721047410

OK...I note this all occurred under the current system of selecting Parliamentarians, and further note you assume that somehow the general public is less capable than professional politicians who are oddly, members of the general public but with the ambition to control others lives.

I reiterate....they couldnt do any worse.

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by  pacifica  |  16th Jul 24, 3:19am 1721056785

In general for the desire to control versus our education system failings it is a big toss up. Which can do more harm? Using maslow and hanlons razor most damage is caused by ignorance rather then absolute malice. We have in history some very big acts of malice but also some even larger acts of ignorance. Could we find ways to counter the effects of both. Yes and in that we do need more changes because part of that is the public including experts ability for significant meaningful engagement (protests, polls, petitions, & voting is not it and does not even ensure their own survival on critical issues).

Admittedly career politicians are not worth much and in general to any member of the public it could be the equivalent of winning lotto that also comes with housing, free transport, bills paid, private medical care and long term pension (often more valuable then most lotto wins). 

It would better for everyone if the trappings of political roles could be more shared. If the political role is just one primarily of spokesperson & policy pusher with little power for policy approvals and enactment then it would be better if we could also have more say in the direct operations of departments and who manages them. As well as better options to ensure consensus for stakeholder needs & survival around policies compared to the limited submission process which is highly time consuming. 

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by  agnostium  |  15th Jul 24, 8:29pm 1721032145

every 5 years or so, 6 proven nurses/doctors get picked to oversee health

Being a good nurse or doctor doesn't have any relationship to being competent at running a health department. Same with teachers and education, etc. They are fundamentally different skill sets. Sometimes a health professional will also have those skills but more often than not they will not. 

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by  Pa1nter  |  15th Jul 24, 8:35pm 1721032531

If you're on the ground you're more adept at determining what's lacking, what works and what doesn't.

Put it another way, it's super rare to encounter highly competent management/decision makers that don't have an experiential background in the process at hand.

Hence our history of appointing generic management to core services, with terrible outcomes.

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by  pacifica  |  15th Jul 24, 9:41pm 1721036485

Er most doctors and senior nurses have to manage hundreds of people & operating to a budget. So your thoughts they would be inept at management is pretty bad. Even a simple GP must also undertake significant training of new staff, business management & management of staff goals and progress.

The idea they do not have those skills is a fallacy managers use to explain away their abject uselessness, worthlessness and inability to perform their roles adequately in skilled industries. In most cases managers would be hired to free up time you can hand over tasks that require few skills to perform. If I had someone to say perform the intro safety induction, or training and goal setting, or work progress monitoring I could do more useful work instead and since I already have the docs &wiki written, (the financial tasks are mostly automated and financial planning was always using the most basic mathematics we expect kids to know), taking someone through the management tasks using the step by step guides already is an option. Following a checklist requires no skills outside of basic reading comprehension.

Yet is does sometimes require monitoring. There is a surprising number of previous business managers & admin staff I have hired who cannot follow a single checklist or show reading comprehension so I have to be more hands on with them still and cannot trust them to do simple tasks without a risk to property or human safety. Asking them if the instructions could be improved always ends up with disappointing responses of oh I did not bother with them, I skipped reading, I did not look at the picture provided alongside text, I did not bother to follow/ignored those steps, I did not look at the label or what colour it is (neon blue versus black... even though they have asserted 20/20 vision & not colourblind, if a staff member was blind tactile labels could be used instead anyway) etc. These people would have difficultly putting together IKEA furniture or cooking a cake from a simple recipe.

There is no management skill to enable absolute control over people. In those cases it normally just requires more training in the causes for the importance of steps, empowerment to feel ok to ask for more information, more monitoring/QA of tasks or switching to checklist before next step style task (e.g. they have to complete one task step and have it asserted before being able to progress). STEM fields have entire sections of training in management styles, principles, financial planning, and useful practices to prevent faults or failures. But you cannot help those who literally are luddites who aim to fail at their roles.

E.g. a senior engineer has to plan, manage, & ensure monitoring of large scale projects worth hundreds of millions with hundreds of subcontractors. And you think they cannot manage a single dept of office seat warmers who mostly output reports most people in their own office don't read. 

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by  Pa1nter  |  15th Jul 24, 9:55pm 1721037322

But if you got rid of all the managers

Who would be there to organize meetings, to discuss what the next meeting should be about.

And personal development seminars.

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by  pacifica  |  15th Jul 24, 10:32pm 1721039553

Hah those working in the fields do enough of that already.

It is good to cut back some of the medical, science & tech meetups, the heavy drinking lifestyle can affect the attempt at staying off the sauce. But many are fun, the seminars are great entertainment. Meetings less so. There is endless infinite hours of training & meetings ahead, solely run, designed and managed by those performing the work... infinite hours... shudder... don't start on best tools to use for visualizations versus monitoring versus analysis & diagnosis versus core services & logic, there is a small screaming man in my head trying to forget those memories. Medical fields have less useless meetings (more directed to human health) but there still a lot of new material, policies, new procedures, monitoring guidelines being changed/updated and needing to be digested. No one person even given years of training or experience can know everything in their field of expertise. With that we will always need to be upskilling & integrating with others so the training and meetings will never end... never end. So might as well enjoy continuous development and get into night courses alongside the daytime ones.

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by  JimboJones  |  15th Jul 24, 6:28pm 1721024880

Still no banks following westpac with rate cuts. Maybe waiting for CPI first. 

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by  HouseMouse  |  15th Jul 24, 6:37pm 1721025439

I reckon the past 30 years of the one trick pony that is the NZ economy is really coming home to roost. Vested interests, self interest, laziness and poor leadership.

A form of karma is playing out

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by  Pa1nter  |  15th Jul 24, 6:41pm 1721025702

There's multiple tricks, just not enough to afford everyone's aspirations.

60% of our economic activity is consumption. Should be more like 20% consumption, and 80% production.

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by  HouseMouse  |  15th Jul 24, 6:44pm 1721025846

Well, one main one - pumping real estate. Of course all sorts of things feed in to that - immigration, tax, and regulatory policies

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by  Pa1nter  |  15th Jul 24, 6:49pm 1721026175

Well, that and most of us need to live in a house.

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by  Advisor  |  15th Jul 24, 6:54pm 1721026442

Not if you believe what economists are predicting: deep OCR cuts will be here in no time and the rising housing tide will lift all boats once again. Never mind the fact that well-over a hundred thousand young Kiwis have departed the country in under 2 years, so the economy will be more capacity-crunched than before.

We could get there though if we are ready to work 6-day weeks as a team of 5.3 million!

Very soon we will all be dancing our way to pubs each night to grab a $14 craft beer paired with the $26 burger of the day.

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by  HouseMouse  |  15th Jul 24, 7:25pm 1721028359

I can’t recall any economists saying deep OCR cuts will be on the way. I think they all say the cuts will be incremental?

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by  Pa1nter  |  15th Jul 24, 10:16pm 1721038587

There are plenty of economists (mostly outside NZ) who are of the impression the only way to pull up from what's coming is to resume some form of low interest QE.

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by  goldni  |  15th Jul 24, 10:26pm 1721039171

Planned incremental cuts.

+

Unplanned significant disaster (once in 100 years!)

=

Big cuts surely

 

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by  Rampart  |  15th Jul 24, 6:42pm 1721025770

Things really do seem to be unravelling

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by  HouseMouse  |  15th Jul 24, 6:45pm 1721025936

The economy is f%#>!<

Good thing the government has a coherent plan to address things

sarc

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by  Pa1nter  |  15th Jul 24, 6:51pm 1721026317

Any plan of lasting merit runs counter to the publics desire to recover from a short term downturn.

You'd need the public to accept a lesser quality of life, while the same resources needed for a bailout are deployed into future investment.

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by  IT GUY  |  15th Jul 24, 6:54pm 1721026446

You cannot bail out a housing crash....

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by  Pa1nter  |  15th Jul 24, 6:59pm 1721026790

You can if your actions were the catalyst in the first place.

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by  JimboJones  |  15th Jul 24, 6:53pm 1721026381

What do you define as f%#>!< ?

At the moment none of the stats look that bad, what level do you anticipate unemployment will get to or GDP? 

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by  HouseMouse  |  15th Jul 24, 7:30pm 1721028641

Have you not been reading all the news on leading indicators over the past week?

I don’t think the economy will grow more than 1% over the whole of 2024/2025. I called unemployment of 5% by end of 2024, and north of 6% by end of ‘25. As I have said before, the only thing stopping it from being 7-8% is the large number of people on work visas, who will be collateral damage.

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by  JimboJones  |  15th Jul 24, 8:16pm 1721031364

It’s bad, but I wouldn’t say it’s f%#>!< yet, more proper evidence needed. 

The obvious leading indicator was the RBNZ raising interest rates at unprecedented speed, I’ve actually been surprised how resilient the economy has been. The big question is how fast things recover once they take the brakes off. 

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by  Flying high  |  15th Jul 24, 9:03pm 1721034229

Its not just house prices that you have a negative perspective on then

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by  IT GUY  |  15th Jul 24, 6:53pm 1721026392

see post above re new wheels required for the bus

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by  Let me be Frank  |  15th Jul 24, 9:03pm 1721034217

Something very wrong in Immigration NZ ...and I don't mean 'inappropriate workplace chats'.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/350325354/evidence-witnesses-recordings…

How long can the politicians continue to pretend?

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by  pacifica  |  15th Jul 24, 9:11pm 1721034683

As long as dog whistles keep being picked up by media. That article has already disappeared from most views, there is no in depth journalism investigation and there is no transfer to other news sources so it has already become invisible to most the population. Out of sight, out of mind. No politician ever need worry about bad performance with our news media being more fickle and without any investigative journalism attention. Even the ads for [enter harmful product advertising here] last longer then most bad news and are more visible to the public on every page. Plus if there is media bias bad performance of certain politicians during their term can be made into some heartfelt tell all to setup for their career post. In most cases department failures have no one responsible. Not the leaders, not the managers, not the politicians who front the dept, not the policy writers or researchers, not the systemic issues that everyone can see clear as day.

 

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by  HouseMouse  |  15th Jul 24, 9:50pm 1721037057

Our mass and fairly indiscriminate immigration policy was always going to throw up multitudes of issues

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by  Let me be Frank  |  15th Jul 24, 10:43pm 1721040185

Does that include the refusal to acknowledge and address that multitude of issues because that sounds a lot like corruption to me.

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by  IT GUY  |  15th Jul 24, 10:57pm 1721041069

All up, the controversial Three Waters - axed by the new National-led Government - cost $1.3b, of which about $800m was given to councils and other organisations to spend on infrastructure.

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by  pacifica  |  16th Jul 24, 2:10am 1721052628

Sure but does that relate to immigration or was there an agricultural visa for irrigation and water management that we were giving out en masse? How about for drain layers? Has there been signs of large amounts of migration visas, migrant exploitation in the water management fields related to the money given to councils?

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