Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
SBS Bank has trimmed -11 bps off their six month fixed rate, now at 7.24%. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
AMP has now removed its 'special premium' from its term deposit offers. SBS Bank has trimmed -10 bps from its 9 month and 1 year rates, and -5 bps from its six month rate offer. This review may be useful. All rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
'FALLING PRECIPITOUSLY'
The June factory PMI makes for very grim reading. As BNZ says: "The manufacturing PMI has now been below 50 for 16 consecutive quarters. As if this isn’t bad enough forward orders have been sub-50 for 22 consecutive quarters suggesting further declines in output lie ahead. Indeed, if anything, the weakness appears to be deepening with June readings for four of the five PMI sub-indices falling precipitously from May’s already suppressed levels. While the weakness in these series has not been as deep as during the GFC the length of it has been longer, and it’s not over yet. Manufacturing activity is highly leveraged to domestic demand, particularly residential construction and household spending. Both of these are faltering."
RETAIL SHOWS DEPTH OF HOUSEHOLD PULLBACK
It is not only the manufacturing sector. Retail have its own tough signals in June. Card spending as a proxy for retail activity fell for the fifth consecutive time in June as households face ongoing financial strain.
FROM APP TO BANK?
Money app Dosh said it will apply to become a bank in New Zealand. If successful, this will make Dosh New Zealand’s first locally owned, digital-only bank. Dosh is locally owned, controlled by the two founders, and with a key equity stake by Avanti Finance.
DOOR WIDE OPEN
The number of permanent arrivals into Australia is now almost at a new record high in a very sharp rebound. +12,680 people arrived in the country in May, taking the annual level to +161,000. The record high permanent arrival level was +163,400 in February 2009.
CHINA TRADE FADES EXCEPT TO 3 COUNTRIES
China's exports were expected to rise +8% in June ahead of new American tariffs. But they actually rose +8.6% to a 15 month high. Their imports fell -2.3% however when a +2.8% rise was expected. They reported they imported almost -16% less from New Zealand in June than in the same month a year ago. They exported +2.4% more to us. For Australia, imports were down -5.2% and exports down -4.9%. For the US, their imports from them were down -4.9% and exports to them up +1.5%. Overall trading with China is pretty muted now. The only destinations that China has good exports to were Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia, and surprisingly Taiwan. Everyone else - Russia included - is very ho-hum. And total trade (imports and exports) is only healthy with Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brazil.
SWAP RATES SETTLE
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be just marginally softer today after Wednesday's falls although there remains downside risk. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 5.55%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -3 bps from this time yesterday at 4.39%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 2.27%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -6 bps at 4.58% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.51% and down another -7 bps from yesterday, down -22 bps from a week ago. The UST 10yr yield is down -7 bps from yesterday at 4.22%. Their 2yr is still at 4.53%, so the curve is now less inverted, by -31 bps.
EQUITIES EXUBERANT
The NZX50 is up +0.5% from yesterday in late trade and heading for an unusually large +2.7% weekly gain. And the ASX200 is up +0.9% in afternoon trade, heading for its own +1.7% weekly rise. Tokyo is down -2.0% at its open, and if that holds it will be up a net +1.3% for the week. Hong Kong is up +1.8% and heading for its own +2.7% weekly rise. Shanghai is unchanged to open and so far that is a weekly +1.0% rise. Singapore is down -0.1%. Wall Street ended its Thursday trade with the S&P500 down -0.9% and despite still being near its all-time high, it is only a gain of +0.3% since their Monday open.
OIL HOLDS
The oil price is essentially unchanged at US$82/bbl in the US, and at still just on US$85.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
GOLD RISES
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$33 from yesterday at US$2410/oz.
NZD EASES SLIGHTLY
The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday, now at 60.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 90.1 AUc. Against the euro we are also down another -10 bps at 56.1 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 69.9 and also down -10 bps.
BITCOIN LOWER
The bitcoin price is down -1.1% from this time yesterday at US$57,215 US$57,865. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.5%.
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145 Comments
"New Zealand’s first locally owned, digital-only bank" - remember BankDirect? It was owned by ASB (so not meeting that criteria), but obviously wasn't successful. Ahead of their time?
BankDirect began in October 1997 and was the only bank in New Zealand to only operate via Internet and phone without any physical branches. BankDirect used the leverage of not having physical branches to offer lower home loan interest rates and higher interest rates on their savings accounts. On 29 August 2017 BankDirect advised customers that they will be progressively moved to ASB accounts. All BankDirect customers will switch to ASB within the following months and will get new ASB credit cards/ EFTPOS cards to replace BankDirect ones.
SPQR Liquidation
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/aucklands-spqr-restaurant-in-liquidation-…
I wonder what's actually going to be left, possibly suburban as WFH supports a bit, CBD is dead
We got 2 fish, a scoop (which was so big it could have passed for 2) and a spring roll so big that it would have made some of the items in Peaches & Cream blush, for $15 from the 'local' we hadn't tried since moving in.
I'm not the biggest F&C fan as it does leave you feeling a bit rubbish afterwards, but the value was strong.
Thus you have hit the nail on the head. What do people without cooking facilities, ability and time do with raw egg, dry uncooked flour, raw chilled/frozen fish, and raw potato. Do you think putting it out in room temperatures & below for long enough magically turns it into edible food. Protip try having cooked food without the ability to hold a knife and use a cooking element or fire safely. Hence meals on wheels for many. Except actual meals on wheels is more unhealthy and rubbish food then most takeaways (with poorer delivery times, less options, and no function for heating if they deliver it cold in the morning instead). So people naturally turn to takeaways, & premade guff that can be delivered hot. This also has significant benefits if you are on the road or working nights and have no cooking facilities save a hot engine. Many are more then elderly, disabled or living in itinerant conditions, many are actually at work on the road and have no choice but to seek food outside of the location they can sleep. Well actually I have slept on the road before and many cabs can be kitted out better & safer then hostels these days.
Rat-faced down at Greenlane GP at the end of a night, 3 bucks in your pocket gets you a couple of pies, chips and a drink.
I have youngsters laugh at my leftover lunches. Actually I think Baywatch did that here once. Enjoy your $15 Panini and Monster. 5 days a week.
Try having cooked food without the ability to hold a knife and use a cooking element or fire safely. Hence meals on wheels for many. Except actual meals on wheels is more unhealthy and rubbish food then most takeaways (with poorer delivery times, less options, and no function for heating if they deliver it cold in the morning instead). So people naturally turn to takeaways. Good takeaways have more veges & meat then many hospital meals too (and can be made allergen free compared to starving in hospital when they have nothing for those with allergies and anaphylaxis responses; not a recommended experience trust me... a single banana can last 3 days but it hardly is available for more then rarely in a week).
This also has significant benefits if you are on the road or working nights and have no cooking facilities save a hot engine. Many are more then elderly, disabled or living in itinerant conditions, many are actually at work on the road and have no choice but to seek food outside of the location they can sleep. Well actually I have slept on the road before and many cabs can be kitted out better & safer then hostels these days.
so to get to a 5% return the price has to drop to ? yeah 60% of what it cost at 2% TO RETURN YOU 5%
100k returning 2k to produce 2%
at 2k return and 5% price needs to be 40k
We DGMers have been trying to tell you this for a little while now.....
anyway I am off to catch trout because there is always a time not to be short or long, its the time to go fishing
Because its SPQR, not your corner takeaways. Its been around longer than some of the posters on here, and its regular clientele aren't the put $30 of gas in the clapped out old holden sort that are really being smashed by the cost of living. Its clientele are (supposedly) the higher earning and less squeezed by the cost of living crisis types. Or perhaps there were a lot more who were trying to look successful.. the "fake it till you make it" set.
I lived local and never went to SPQR, I was never into flashy or pronouns , I was more of a grand central type of IT Guy...
if anyone wants to know Grand Central was the kind of place where things happened on site or soon after that where NSFW, but made great stories later on
Interestingly Chris Rupe of SPQR started Augustus Bistro in the old BB Cafe building in 2016, it went into liquidation owing more than $660K in 2018, the beginning of the end?
Auckland fine dining restaurant Augustus Bistro owes creditors more than $660,000 - NZ Herald
SPQR was always rubbish food even if you were wealthy. Having been able to drop more then $600 for a single dinner (even amongst a couple) we knew the best spots in Auckland (some came with actual shows with the food as well or extremely rare experiences) in less then a few minutes drive from the location of SPQR and many would cost half as much as what SPQR would charge, (so on an financial basis why on earth go to SPQR). SPQR was where you go when you had no taste and were really ignorant of food quality. Anyone there was really there for the cheap awful tasting grog more then anything. And there is not a good profit on cheap grog & bad food.
Gah just a refresh look at the menu& drinks list now it is so bad it reminds me of why I BYO when able to. Ironically the price & value of our stock has increased but we better have some of it before the angels do. Man I do miss some of my favourite stops though. Some good ones closed through generational changing hands & selling off, (others have multigenerational plans & handover plans e.g. kids getting degrees and experience in fields as the work and asset values get better and technology integration improves so more skills needed).
Let’s see in another few months shall we
my best guess is that good, more affordable places will do fine. I would have thought that high end places would be ok, and mid range places struggle - but perhaps not
Some of the trendy, higher end places are probably quite reliant on business clientele and ponzi recipients, both of whom will be pulling back spending (generally). I think these kinds of outfits are vulnerable.
Solid, traditional places may be ok. The kind of places that people in their 60s and 70s enjoy. My dad has a couple of favourites in Wellington that he keeps going to.
I'm not doubting that a lot of places will shut down, its tough out there. But the odd place shutting down isn't that unusual, its par of the course for restaurants and bars, especially at the top end where people want fancy and trendy as opposed to the bottom end with their regulars.
I know a couple of people running well regarded establishments. They have never seen it worse (apart from lockdowns, obviously). One of them is on the brink. Nothing to do with irresponsible or poor business practices. All to do with rising costs and declining patronage.
GST increases tend to increase against multiple things so the end result was increases far above the 2.5%. The biggest sin of the 2.5% increase was that it applied to life saving medications sought on compassionate grounds from overseas because they did not make Pharmac's budget. Leaving many to beg even more and even more missing out & being forced to become medical refugees to the likes of Australia. Because a 2.5% increase is crippling over a lifetime.
Would be interesting to know what the rising costs are? You sell a $50 meal that’s a small steak and a jus, does it matter if the cost of the meat went up from $17 to $20? In fact if it’s lamb I can’t remember it being cheaper.
I’m guessing rent is the big killer, doesn’t it seem crazy that something that’s been there forever is now unaffordable?
Rents actually one of the lesser components and is also one of the costs that moves around least. Although it is a fixed cost, unlike food and labour which are going to vary based on demand.
Every food business is slightly different, but labour is roughly 25-30% of costs and food somewhere around 35%.
I've thought for a longtime that the period from 2010-2020 would be a "food bubble". The combination of growing variety of high-quality eateries at extremely reasonable prices was unsustainable and had a lot to do with a very low interest rate environment as well as some demographic factors (millenials being a big generation in prime "food worker" age while their parents were also a big generation now able to spend more with rising house prices giving the 'wealth effect').
I don't think that period will be matched again.
> Former hospitality veteran Luke Dallow told Newstalk ZB the pressure on restaurants and eateries “just comes down to escalating food and wage costs”.
> ”It’s so disheartening”, said Dallow, who owned various restaurants and bars over 30 years before selling up just before the Covid-19 pandemic.
> He’s now a real estate agent.
Talk about out of the frying pan.....
There are a lot of places literally hanging on. The data looks horrific.
Anecdotally, hospo folk are saying:
- The lunch trade has died a death as it is the first thing that people cut to save money.
- Our rapidly changing population is making a difference - regular customers are leaving the country in droves, new arrivals aren't coming out to eat (or going somewhere different)
- There is increased competition in urban areas as new migrants are starting food businesses - inc takeaway and delivery. The family set-up means that their labour costs are well below minimum wage.
- Hospo costs have gone up way more than inflation and customers won't pay the prices they are having to charge to cover those costs.
There is a tidal wave of closures coming.
Yes, having lived on Dominion Road for near 20 years it was quite the transformation as one by one those paying legal wages closed. But hey, cheap meals for the Mt Eden crowd...
I think it's hugely unfair that those doing the right thing are put out of business by those not following NZ laws.
This is a fascinating comment, really enlightening actually. I rarely eat out, however find the food and hospitality industry interesting in terms of how it reflects our society as a whole.
The demise of some upscale restaurants can be hastened by the effect of becoming unfashionable too. Once they become unpopular no one wants to be seen in them.
Don’t underestimate the increase in sick days and stats. There’s still a select few who will only take sick days when sick but most will take their total 10 as it’s “their right” Also an employee culture of thinking they’re special. Honestly hiring staff in 2024 is a literal minefield. If you hurt someone’s feeling they can go to sacked kiwi or many other no win/no fee companies who will try their luck with an employer. You’re better off paying 5K to make it go away than 5K for your lawyer and the stress and time to fight it in court.
I have very fond memories of that place from when I lived in Auckland, it was my regular Sunday night hangout. Very sad to see it go. The fallout from lockdowns will continue to reverberate for years to come. I just came back from Melbourne, and its the same over there. Places are dead, iconic hospitality venues have closed, and more will follow. All thats left is a proliferation of Asian restaurants and vape shops staffed by exploited workers. That's Auckland's future too.
Yep K.W. there is going to be a real issue trying to get those operators to pay tax. The whole thing is a lose. But I guess that is the future for our country. Unavoidable really as the dynamics of the population changes to more of an Asian influence. India is a bit like Greece when it comes to getting people to pay tax.
My local restaurant SPQR, a bit of an institution, closed down, put into liquidation 😪 immediately. I was operating since 1992.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/aucklands-spqr-restaurant-in-liquidation-…
Edit: oops, I posted before reading the comments.
I was recently having this conversation with a 23 year old about why nobody was going out on the town anymore. She replied that everyone her age had just gotten used to staying home during Covid and just interacting on their phones. I feel so sorry for the generation that came of age in the last four years. Their social development has been well and truly stunted.
How it began was understandable. So much was unknown and some health authorities and academics were quite frantic with predictions of impending doom and the media sucked that in and blew it out fivefold. Somewhere along the way it seemed as if the then government came to be more than satisfied with themselves with the degree of control that could be inflicted on the people and became very reluctant to loosen that grip. That control was unnecessarily punitive, pedantic and prolonged. There were many warnings from other health authorities and academics from the psychological side of the profession, that there would be adverse social consequences and it is now quite obvious that unheeded advice was correct.
"So much was unknown". Bullshit. Cindy, Chippie and Bloomer knew exactly what they were doing - maximising sales of experimental gene therapy. The young were cash cows. Any punter could have read the Diamond Princess data and observed the Wuhan flu didn't harm healthy young people <65. Much was known yet the Two Shots for Summer was rolled out.
"In its 9 Dec 2021 memo CV TAG expressed concerned that its advice had not been followed to require under 18s to have only one dose for the purpose of mandates. CV TAG did not consider it justifiable to require two doses as it would expose them to an increased risk of myocarditis. Why did the government ignore this advice?"
https://x.com/CranmerWrites/status/1643816406633553921/photo/1
Any punter could have read the Diamond Princess data and observed the Wuhan flu didn't harm healthy young people <65
Agreed, Princess Diamond was an excellent early case study that said it shortened life by an average of 3 weeks (and that was for an older cruise ship demographic). I recall at the time telling people any lockdown that lasted more than 3 weeks was a net negative for people under 50 like me and I'd rather take my chances with the virus (and have my freedom back if I lived).
In the beginning probably not. But I don’t think they would have so protracted the extreme measures enforced. For instance the Auckland lockdown prior to Xmas that had all the characteristics of borders akin to the Iron Curtain. Watercraft proposed on the harbour to stop the yachties escaping, exhaustive traffic stops every family car. So much so the police finally said to Hipkins, nuff off, can’t be done or do it yourself. Also add in the midst of a pandemic that they could not possibly have been so disengaged with the requisite priorities that $millions were poured into a restructure of MoH headquarters in Wellington while front line staff at hospitals were so under equipped and pressured.
agree, a daughter turned 17 recently and had lots of friends over for the birthday, wow none of them are trying to sneak into clubs etc underage.... they all went through the lock downs and just do not quite know who they are yet.... not sure any look 16, they are a very different generation, I am scared about how robust they are. (and i mean that in a concerned way)
I commented to others recently, this recession feels a bit like the lockdown, we are being lied to on the news constantly...
I feel the media does not want to tell us the hard truth anymore, people are losing there homes, I know of 3 yet nothing in the media
Kids of both sexes are fairly risk adverse these days. Teenage alcoholism, drug taking and pregnancy are all trending down. Which sounds like a parents dream, but they're not really learning cause and effect for themselves.
Girls are struggling because they can eviscerate each other online.
Boys are struggling because they're being over mothered, and sit in their rooms playing games too much.
If we think the birth rates bad now, the next 10-20 years is going to be pretty telling.
We had 7 teenage girls kill themselves over a 12 month period, out of a population of maybe 1500 kids. And traditionally teenage girls haven't been high risk for suicide.
My kids are teenagers, and the most common issue cited by all of their mates is loneliness and anxiety.
They're far from ok. But I guess they're not clogging up the A&E, right?
We're doing society fundamentally wrong if our children are mental basket cases before they've even aged enough to have the world kick their arse a few times.
Virtually all the posters on here are some of the last people to grow up in an analogue environment. There will be other factors, but it'd appear a solely digital existence isn't great for the old grey matter.
I 100% agree with this and for so many reasons..... but we can now not turn it off....
i feel luckl that i have somewhat isolated my girls from as much of this BS as I could, but they are now interfacing with a community already infected with likes and upticks, but even in professional life they are stuck in a world on LinkedIn madness.
It's kind of hard with doing the isolation thing, it's how kids socialize, and also the de facto way that generation operate.
My lofty hope is that in the coming years, as AI makes the internet almost impossible to differentiate between what's real and what's not that the younger generations largely abandon it.
That's terrible numbers for suicide. Went to a top Auckland college for years and the role was about 1700 and I don't remember a single suicide. One girl got killed riding a horse on the road and a guy got killed on his motorbike and that was about it. Social Media is to blame, what else has changed that much over time.
It’s about $11 for a beer at a pub. It’s not just the young people staying away.
Went away recently with a bunch of mates, most have pretty decent wealth, no one wanted to waste money on a restaurant. We cooked and drunk fancy wine at our own place. I was againest doing this but I admit, it was much better.
If NZ Labour had hitched their britches and legalised weed the tax revenue would now be 2.5bn and rising. Combined with the 3bn spent on the criminal justice system enforcing weed offences, the $5.5bn would pay for a future proofed ferry system.
oh, and stoned people in Auckland would be less likely to get into fights. Never seen any convictions for stoned people smashing others over the head. Stoned and drunk people tend to fall asleep.
I tend to agree that the offenders in Auckland CBD are not primarily weed offenders....
and yeah its easy to get the medical card now just like it used to be in California....
once you have that first script, who knows how u fill up that small plastic container.....
I remember the Finance Plaza in AKL in 1993, you had to avoid the team police and dog squad getting out and away from Cactus Jacks (not sure this name but was a dodgey bar next to the night club full of pokeno girls)
Or the islanders who would beat up the white boys walking up Q street at 2am....
Mind you back then it seemed that worst that could happen to you was a blood nose or a case of the clap, now days king hits and other stuff seems to make us scared to venture outside.
I used to wear a tight T shirt and look ripped, and I almost never went out alone.
That said its so nice to be out in a city like Singapore where you just feel ... S A F E
Sorry I will keep to the safer locations, there is nothing in the CBD I Need or want to visit at night
IMHO, it was until about 4 years ago then it got more equal, easy to clean up it cops want to now.
just need some tough love and bring back the police dogs, everyone loves a cute police doggy
I seriously believe that if we doubled the police dog numbers we could halve the street crime....
If it was so many people's "local institution", why did it close?
I have more than a fair idea, but it would be very inappropriate to share this publicly. Suffice to say that any business can be ruined by mismanagement that runs too much unnecessarily debt. When the interest rate rises on said debt...boom
Coal maxing out tonight. We needs to do better.
https://www.transpower.co.nz/system-operator/live-system-and-market-dat…
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