Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
TSB trimmed its one year fixed rate to 6.99%, down -15 bps. That aligns it with Kiwibank's offer for that term, and both are below the carded one year fixed rates from the other main banks. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
Nothing to report today. All rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
NEW RESPONSIBLE LENDING CODE RELEASED
The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) says a new version of the Responsible Lending Code has been approved by Minister of Commerce and Consumer Affairs Andrew Bayly and is available here.
SINKING I
At just 681 properties sold by Auckland's dominant realtor in June, Barfoot & Thompson's sales were at a 14 year low while stock levels available for sale were at a 14 year high.
SINKING II
Business survey suggests economy contracted in June quarter. Most businesses saw less trading activity in the past three months and expect conditions to worsen in the coming quarter, according to NZIER’s June survey.
SINKING III
Company liquidations hit their highest level for a May month in 10 years. Centrix says all sectors have seen liquidations rise, with retail trade companies experiencing the largest increase annually followed by the property/rental and transportation sectors.
SINKING IV
There were 34,851 new dwelling building permits in the year ended May 2024, down -23% compared with the year ended May 2023. The record for the number of residential dwellings consented was 51,015 in the year ended May 2022. In the two years since, the number of homes consented has fallen -32% from that peak. In the month alone, there were 3,175 new dwelling building permits in May, down -15% compared with the same month a year ago.
LOOK THROUGH SOME INFLATION FOR A RATE CUT
BNZ economists say they hope the Reserve Bank will 'eventually accept' there are a number of relative price increases such as insurance and rates that can be 'looked through'. However there is 'a very real chance' the central bank continues to be surprised by strength of domestic inflation they say.
BUSINESS INTEREST ALMOST DOUBLES
Interest paid by businesses surged 92% or +$26.5 bln in 2023, reaching a total of $55.3 bln. Figures from Stats NZ’s annual enterprise survey published yesterday show the most substantial growth in interest paid occurred in the financial and insurance services industries, which includes trading banks, with a 137% or $21 bln increase compared to a year earlier. Stats NZ said the jump coincided with the increase in interest rates between late 2021 and mid-2023. Outside the financial and insurance services industries, the largest amounts in business interest were reported in the rental services and agriculture industries, up an annual +$1.4 bln and +$1.2 bln respectively.
SINKING V
The total value of non-residential building permits were down -31% in May from a year earlier. The biggest drivers of the annual decline came from education (down -$130 mln), hospitals (down -$85 mln), and retail (down -$80 mln).
URGENT PATCH REQUIRED
Security vendor Qualys finds a bad bug has resurrected after 18 years, one that could allow full remote takeover of millions of computers. Details here.
BRACE
There is another dairy auction tomorrow morning. However, the signs for rising prices are not great. Last week's GDT Pulse event brought a sharp retreat to the SMP price. It went from US$2660 on June 11 at that Pulse event, to US$2766 a week later at the last GDT event, and then down to US$2540 at the Pulse event last week. The futures market suggests tomorrow could come in at US$2610 which would be a weak recovery over these last two weeks but still leave them below the level of three weeks ago. Last week's GDT Pulse event brought a minor retreat to the WMP price. It went from US$3417 on June 11 at that Pulse event, to US$3394 a week later at the last GDT event, and then dipped slightly to US$3382 at the Pulse event last week. The futures market suggests tomorrow could come in at US$3165 which would be a an unfortunate fall over these last two weeks and leave them -7% below the level of three weeks ago. (The futures market is an unreliable indicator of actual auction results however.)
IT'S GOING TO TAKE A WHILE
Westpac is saying that higher prices and better profitability for sheep meat and beef farmers depends heavily on a recovery in consumer demand in China. Global red meat consumption is growing but not in our traditional Western markets. They say that once 2025 is past us, the fortunes for red meat farmers will likely improve.
INFLATION LOWER
In South Korea inflation slowed further to 2.4% in June, from 2.7% in a month earlier and below market expectation of 2.7%. It pointed to the lowest reading since July 2023 for them and the June 2024 reading was lower than May 2024.
STRESS TESTING THE BIG INSURERS
The RBNZ said it will be running stress tests for the major general insurers, with results released in Q1-2025. The seven companies involved cover about 80% of the market and will be tested on their resilience to a major seismic event, and to a major cyber attack.
RBA MINUTES TEST MARKETS
In Australia, the central bank minutes for its June 18 meeting were released earlier today and these claimed they are on track to meet their inflation target of between 2 and 3% ... in 2026. That brought a few market guffaws. It is clear from these minutes that a rate hike is still on the table if data deviates from what they need to achieve their target.
SWAP RATES FIRMISH
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be a little firmer on the extending global rate moves, especially at the long end. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is little-changed at 5.62%, a level it has hovered around for 120 days now. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up another +5 bps from this time yesterday at 4.48%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +4 bps on PoBC activity 2.24%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 4.75% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.71% and up +2 bps from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is up +11 bps from yesterday at 4.45%. Their 2yr is now at 4.76%, so the curve is much less inverted at -31 bps.
EQUITIES MINOR & MIXED
The NZX50 is down a minor -0.1% today in late trade. But the ASX200 is down another -0.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +0.3% at its open. Hong Kong is up +0.8%, and Shanghai is up only +0.2% to open their week. Singapore is up +0.5%. The S&P500 was up +0.3% in their Monday trade on Wall Street.
OIL RISES
The oil price is up +US$1.50 at US$83/bbl in the US, and just over US$86.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
GOLD FIRMISH
In early Asian trade, gold is little-changed since this time yesterday, up a minor +US$6 at US$2332/oz.
NZD RETREATS
The Kiwi dollar is -½c softer from this time yesterday, now at 60.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are a -¼c lower at 91.1 AUc. Against the euro we also down -¼c at 56.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is down -40 bps at 70.1.
BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price has dipped -0.4% from this time yesterday, now at US$62,967. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.0%.
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113 Comments
Whichever way you look at it, this is very, very bad. People are being shafted and they have no idea.
Marking their own homework’:
Inside Australia’s $200b unregulated private credit boom: An investigation by The Australian Financial Review has found evidence that funds are reluctant to write off badly performing loans – and tell those invested. Others are paying themselves in fees more money than they hand over to investors. Some are even lending to companies that promptly go broke, raising questions about the thoroughness of due diligence.
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/investors-realise-priv…
Sony has thrown in the towel and are going into crypto.
The cryptocurrency industry has seen the arrival of several major firms into its ecosystem. Following this cryptocurrency trail Sony, Japan’s multi-industry conglomerate has decided to acquire Amber Japan, a prominent crypto firm. Through this deal, Sony will be debuting into the cryptocurrency exchange sector.
With a $100 billion market valuation, Sony has long spoken about diversifying its holdings. To build its portfolio, the company entered the cryptocurrency market. The commercial subsidiary of the company, Sony Network Communications, collaborated with the Japanese blockchain startup Startale Labs to create Sony’s own public blockchain network last year.
https://watcher.guru/news/sony-to-launch-cryptocurrency-exchange-in-jap…
‘Inflation-adjusted US government spending in less than 4 years now exceeds the combined spending of:
- World War I
- World War II
- 1970 to 1990
This is very concerning for the long-term health of the economy
Everyone, except the US government, seems to understand this’
https://x.com/gameoftrades_/status/1807839083651105127?s=46&t=MUwQeKa7M…
Yes it always works for the reverse currency nation right until the point that it doesn’t and there is a run on the currency as globally everyone realises that their bonds are worthless (ie the productivity of the nation has no possible way of delivering on the IOUs it has promised in return for funding the reserve currencies forever wars/military spending).
Have a read of ‘Changing World Order’ by Ray Dalio to better understand the lifecycle of reserve currency nations. The US is currently in the final path towards default and loss of reserve status (quite likely over the next 50 years or so). Their debt is spiralling out of control - printing money to fund their deficit spending is only going to accelerate their death spiral. No reserve currency nation of the past 500 years has survived the position the US currently finds itself in (debt to GDP).
Nobody in the US knows what the hell is going on, let alone hoping about what the future holds.
Unless you can show me their 50 and 100 year plans? As opposed to the extremely short term existential Trump vs Biden crisis they currently in. The bridge is out on their current track but nobody is slowing the train down to avoid a disaster (but this is a common theme in reserve currency nations as they enter their decline).
They're currently pulling out of the Middle East, as they've become self sufficient in fossil fuels. They're also undertaking a significant internal boost in manufacturing capacity, and much manufacturing is being re-homed from non-Americas territories to Mexico.
So it would seem they are backing away from their role as global trade sheriff. Presumably we are going to see globalisation fragment, trade routes getting disrupted, and many nations being subject to some pretty hefty inflation and supply shortages. From a relative perspective, in spite of the debt, America could well retain it's status as one of the head economies on earth (if not at the top).
Dalios a smart man and very successful, but he's also a bit willfully ignorant of just how bad things look for most other leading nations.
Unfortunately it is not like the' you dont need to run faster than the lion analogy.'...the US may outdo China in the performance stakes....and still collapse. And earlier than they otherwise would have.
When a global system crashes, all the worlds economies crash.
US Govt spending creates the dollars in the reserve system that are used to buy the bonds.
The Fed can always set the value (and yield) of the bonds by offering to buy any amount at a floor price.
There is literally zero chance of the US going bust. Unless it chooses to, which is all a bit crazy, ay?
Doing this would risk being highly inflationary though, no? While I agree that the US govt would never default in the traditional sense if their only way out is to debase their currency to reduce the debt burden they have done a form of "soft default", right? Borrowed money at a certain purchasing power and returned said money with much decrease purchasing power in real terms?
How are they debasing their currency? Are they still on the gold standard? What actually is a 'soft default'?
The mistaken assumption here is thinking that the US Govt borrows money from the private sector by selling bonds and then spends it. This takes you to the logical but flawed question: What if nobody will lend us any US dollars to spend? Oh, no, we will be bankrupt!
Once you understand that a sovereign Govt spends money into existence and then taxes it back, your understanding of the economy changes. Once you understand that bonds sales are a simple swap in the form that Govt debt takes (from reserve account balances to Bonds) you can start to see the economy like the Fed sees it. Why would the US default when it can spend a trillion dollars into existence to buy back a trillion dollars worth of bonds?
Isn't this perspective basically just MMT? Modern monetary theory? The major risk of what you are saying here is serious and sustained inflation. And serious and sustained inflation is what we appear to have worldwide atm....
Eventually what you are saying leads to a loss of belief in the currency globally and a severe and rapid devaluation of the currency. Which in the US case will also mean a loss in reserve currency status.
Okay, well I agree on the description of the plumbing in that case.
I'm just point out that while it is true what you are saying (the US govt is extremely unlikely to ever do a hard default) there is definitely the possibility of a "soft default". A "soft default" is when debts taken out in nominal terms (as all debts are) end up being paid back in a currency that due to significant inflation does not reflect a return of equivalent purchasing power to the lender. The literal amount borrowed is returned but the same amount of purchasing power is not. Not technically a default but would have serious negative ramifications on the perceived and actual creditworthiness of the US government.
I think the mistake you're making is thinking that US Treasuries are any different to credits in reserve balances. Bonds and reserve balances are both US Govt debt. So the 'lender' is actually a saver that wants to exchange an asset returning a floating rate return for a highly tradable asset that returns a fixed rate!
I suggest you read ‘Changing World Order’ by Ray Dalio. There is a reasonable possibility that US defaults in the next 50 years. Every reserve currency nation that has found itself in the position the US is currently in (debt to GDP) has defaulted and destroyed that reserve currency in the process (no exceptions that I’m aware of).
Removal of the gold standard by the USA was the first sign that they were going to devalue their currency into oblivion with excessive deficit spending and money printing to fund their forever wars and massive military. It is another sign of a reserve currency nation that is on the path of self destruction. Link the USD back to a gold standard to prevent the US money printing and watch what happens!
JFoe have you read about the demise of the Dutch and British as reserve currencies? In the end, over extending military and deficit spending (even if printing money to fund the deficient) is the path to destruction for that nation - the same path the US is currently heading down. Eventually everyone realises the IOUs (bonds) are no good and no longer want them.
US Govt spending creates the dollars in the reserve system that are used to buy the bonds.
This question is embarrassing for post-Keynesians (nowadays rebranded "MMT"). It's premised on the false claim the CB=gov't. The answer: 1) US presidents who tried to issue state money got shot (by bond coupon rentiers. 2) So gov'ts don't issue money but borrow it at interest. Link
The 12 regional Fed banks are owned by banks.
Only if they are truely self contained....Id suggest they are not. They still require heavy oil from Saudi, their shale output is measured in years not decades and they have an inequality problem thats likely to impact their function ahead of many....nevermind their political system.
Oh, and their deficit is currently provided for from offshore.
It could all fall apart very quickly.
Yeah, nah.
Shale gas and tight oil production in the United States is forecast to increase to nearly 35 trillion cubic feet by 2050, up from 26.91 trillion cubic feet in 2022.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/183740/shale-gas-production-in-the-…
Strong continuing international demand for petroleum and other liquids will sustain U.S. production above 2022 levels through 2050, according to most of the cases we examined in our Annual Energy Outlook 2023 (AEO2023). We project that the United States will continue to be an integral part of global oil markets and a significant source of supply in these cases, as increased exports of finished products support U.S. production.
https://www.artberman.com/blog/draining-america-first-the-beginning-of-…
"The signals are flashing yellow if not red about the future of tight oil production. My analysis is not an outlier. In May, Pioneer CEO Scott Sheffield said that Permian output will peak in 5 to 6 years. In November, Continental Resources Chair Harold Hamm suggested that core areas of the Bakken play were reaching their peak, and that deeper “tough rock” objectives would be needed to sustain production. Goehring and Rozencwajg wrote in May that the Permian basin was depleting faster than generally believed and that output might peak in 2023.
This is the beginning of the end for the Permian and other tight oil plays. There are decades of remaining production but at lower rates. The data is clear. Wells are producing less than in previous years. It doesn’t take a degree in petroleum geology or engineering to understand what that means. The production peak may come in 2024 or several years later. The details do not interest me."
https://www.artberman.com/blog/beginning-of-the-end-for-the-permian/
Sinking indeed. Worth noting that those eye-watering business debt servicing costs climbed much higher into 2024. Businesses are now throwing more than $15bn per year in interest payments at the banks - up from $6bn a couple of years ago. Now, how do businesses get the money to pay all of that extra interest? Do they raid their little piggy banks? Or do they, just maybe, pass on those extra costs to their customers?
What do you call it when a lot of prices go up again? Inflaming? Irritation? Imitation?
With sunken demand, their higher prices may not have enough sales volume to cover the difference. So some go under, and the survivors become a little more monopolistic due to decreased competition.
End results the same though; the opposite of what central banks are claiming to be doing.
Yes, businesses with sufficient market power pass on higher costs, those that don't, go bust. This leaves more businesses with market power and the effect strengthens.
I used to think that this effect was questionable, but our biggest sector (wholesale with $150bn+ of sales pa) increased profit margins and nominal profits through late 2023 and into early 2024. They got the power.
Or do they, just maybe, pass on those extra costs to their customers?
If you can. For ex, price of a Big Mac in the US has increased 100% over the past 10 years vs "actual inflation" of 31%.
I did a comparison with Japan over the past 7.5 years as I have the data and a Big Mac increased in price by approx 15% - twice the rate of inflation.
You can only pass costs to consumers if they're willing to pay - not forgo consumption or find substitues.
In the case of Maccas Japan, market share is too important for them. And they're likely to be largely debt free and operate on razor thin margins.
Correct. Public debt is high. Owed to themselves and they're a creditor nation.
Also, 5-year correlation of USD/JPY with 10y UST yield suggests 10y yield could head back toward 5%.
Problem is US can't afford the interest, entitlements, & Cold War 2.0 at a 5% 10y without more USD liquidity.
Conclusion: Weak JPY is as much the Fed's & Treasury's problem as it is the BOJ's.
Yes but we’ve just had 30+ years of the reverse of this cycle where interest costs were experiencing disinflation so it shouldn’t be a problem now that we have the reverse cycle playing out should it?! The trick was to use the low rates as an opportunity to be debt free or low debt relative to income just in case rates normalised (see history, it always happens in the long term) - but what did people do in this period? They loaded up with more debt!
The trick was to use the low rates as an opportunity to be debt free or low debt relative to income just in case rates normalised (see history, it always happens in the long term) - but what did people do in this period?
NZ h'hold debt to GDP was approx 28% in the early 90s (now approx 92%).
Fat chance of ever going back to 28% unless there is some kind of debt jubilee.
The banking system would have to be dismantled.
Agree, although it is worth remembering that the private debt increase from the 1990s to 2008 enabled the Govt deficit reduction over the same period. It was a debt swap at the macro level. Here's a chart that shows this clearly.
So, one way of reducing that debt would be, for example, for Govt to take on some of that debt - e.g. Crown buying land off home owners on the condition that all proceeds wipe out mortgage debt, and then renting the land back to the owner. This would have to be accompanied by a serious capital gains and / or land tax of course to change the incentives.
Imo inflation is locked in regardless of which way we go here. Debt is borrowing from the future. We had too low interest rates for decades, borrowed enormous sums from the future and far too much went into consumption/non-productive assets, and now many of the things that allowed for such a low inflation rate (China/Ex-USSR joining global economy, globalisation, women entering workforce, etc) have ended. So now the neutral rate is much higher meaning we are in a far more inflationary environment globally.
Unfortunately we are now also dealing with massive debt loads on unproductive assets to go along with it. Which takes more and more money from people out of the productive economy. We could drop interest rates but it would need to be by more than 1-2% to make much of a difference. And if we do that, we experience what Japan is right now: downward pressure on the currency. Which will do what? Make our imports more expensive. Which will mean what? More inflation.
We are in the "pick our poison" stage of things here looking for the least lethal option. Because of the nature of our economy (very dependent upon and open to trade), our economic management for decades (especially severe mismanagement of the housing market), and global conditions we don't have much choice but to follow the Fed.
It's actually worse than that. We didn't just borrow 'money' from our future, we have locked in super high energy use and used up the bulk of the freely and easily available energy.
Any 'growth' would need to be underpinned by growth in energy use and that can't happen indefinitely. The growth model has an end point and that point is fast approaching. Instead of preparing for a lower per capita energy consumption world we are using the remaining energy to speed quickly towards the wall.
PDK posted a link here the other day with a series of talks at a recent conference. Watch the Hagens link, he explains it better than I could. It isn't necessarily that energy will run out, it's that the consequences of continued draw down are unsustainable (not just carbon emissions) Link below.
https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/128472/murray-grimwood-shines-…
Indeed we have infinite energy below and above us the critical thing though is the financial incentive, manufacturing/processing costs & profit margins to be collected on it. There will never be a running out of energy (anyone who says that is an idiot) but there could be a social collapse with us losing the skills and knowledge to process energy in less environmentally damaging ways (i.e. we could go back to just burning everything we find in a Matariki style bonfire 24/7 vs being able to build & run power generation facilities and secure transmission lines). Significant amount of FF is used for heating & cooking worldwide, alongside the manufacturing & food/fashion logistics costs. In the Mad Max or social collapse world while we can accept a degrading diet, loss of massive manufacturing we still resort to just burning the world for heating and cooking (both aspects essential for survival and even now most will claim burning is culturally necessary & still do in large degrees in NZ regardless of the significant environmental harm and pollution).
US consumer defaults have hit the highest since the GFC - chart here:
https://x.com/gameoftrades_/status/1807809094297993520?s=46&t=MUwQeKa7M…
Of course. Just like the RBNZ did in 2021, when it begrudgingly raised the OCR to....ta-da...0.5%, even into the face of its own date showing CPI rising 4%. But of course it looked-through that and saw a future of 2%....But, hey. At least the driver of our economy was going gang busters - "CoreLogic’s House Price Index rose a further during the month of September, with the index rising by 27.8 percent over the year."
"The Reserve Bank expects annual inflation to increase above four percent in the near term. Annual inflation is then expected to fall to around two percent
https://www.parliament.nz/mi/pb/library-research-papers/monthly-economi…
Pleeeaaase...don't be nieve to think they are not one and the same thing. Being endless bank profit for global banking shareholders.
You can use AI to uncover shareholders. That will lead you quickly thru Aussie banks, to Blackrock and Vanguard Group in the US. Who also have very intertwined ownership in each other. Aka lots of the same owners. Past that point its gets deliberately vague clearly to mask the real owners.
Specuvestors are just the risk proxies.
What is though overlooked in the acclaimed housing ponzi or whatever, is that some NZ folk wanted no more than a house to call home, raise a family and live to a standard they could afford. That used to be a fundamental and realistic ambition and lifestyle which today seems to be regarded as naive. Worse than that it is too being reviled by some as being privileged as if somehow attending to such a basic means they have been flagrant participants in some sort of rip off. Instead by my view, the root cause is that not since Norman Kirk’s third Labour government, has any government made any meaningful attempt to differentiate between a property that is owned by a household as opposed to one that is not. To put in simply, the former houses a family, even a family of one, the latter is some form of business. That is the crux of the distortion that has seen house prices unrelentingly become more and more difficult, for young families for instance, to make home ownership achievable.
Fabulous suite of stories this afternoon to be fair. Or maybe I am just relieved that more people are finally realising that the economy snapped months ago and we are now in a tailspin.
I've been saying this for a couple of years now. But the place is so fixated on the housing ponzi narrative, the wide reaching ramifications have been ignored.
We have lots of house listings, and flat prices which is what people have been waiting for. And also record insolvencies, falling consents, rising unemployment, more job competition, and shrinking sales.
Under MMT, inflation is obviously the 'increase in the money supply' - namely the M2 Money Supply.
Again and also obviously, higher interest rates suck money out of the domestic economy and unless reissued that money (in theory) ceases to exist.
Unfortunately for workers and particularly renters - leveraged traders (those with a mortgage) and indebted businesses are going to try and extract their higher debt-servicing-costs through them.
Mortgage holders and property investors will TRY to extract by increasing rents, boarding costs and commercial leases.
Businesses, again obviously, will TRY to extract by rightly increasing their prices charged for goods-&-services.
Unfortunately for the New Zealand economy, house prices are extremely high and social mobility low. This has lead to a steady decline in home ownership:
As Such:
- The demand for homewares isn't there:
Some would say, "WONDERFUL, that means homeware prices will decrease!" Perhaps, OR, retailers start shutting shop and the remaining stores look at the TWI and NZD/USD and start upping their prices!
- Again, obviously, this applies to restaurants and bars too. The wealthy can only eat and drink so much to make up for the lack of purchasing power of workers/renters.. ..hospitality prices need to increase!
Entrepreneurship dies:
- Though New Zealand has had a Number 8 Wire mentality.. ..fix anything with a tin can and a rubber band.. ..not having the right tools for the job is nothing to be proud of.
- With people spending vast sums of time and money to meet rent obligations, there is little room and more importantly capital for an entrepreneurial culture to develop.
Immigration becomes a tourniquet around New Zealand's neck:
- Those being extracted from have and are leaving NZ in historic numbers - often to Australia and the UK - taking whatever capital and skills they possess.
- A skill shortage ensues and though there are unquestionably capable and qualified Kiwis still left, NZ's housing situation is so dire, relocating people within NZ is not financially sustainable/doable for many NZ businesses.
- Low skilled immigration speaks for itself
..and this post is now long enough.. ..and I can't be bothered proofreading it.. ..sorry, NOT sorry.
great post
With people spending vast sums of time and money to meet rent obligations, there is little room and more importantly capital for an entrepreneurial culture to develop.
people do not have garage in cheap rentals they have been turned into bedrooms, you cannot learn how to do things in a workshop with your dad, if you neither the workshop.... or a dad around.
Dads letting you fail at small things when young set you up to cope with failure later when its important, and teach you its ok, you can try again.
Roy Morgan poll update
National support increases marginally in June as support for Labour slumps back below 30%
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9623-nz-national-voting-intention-ju…
Since before the election its been clear that every demographic except child bearing age women supports the Coalition.
"Younger women aged 18-49 are the biggest supporters of the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 55% and well ahead of the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition on 38% - a gap of 17% points."
The Coalition should be asking themselves why that is
~7 years ago I blamed this split on Bill Englishs blanket & blinkered (by his religious & patriarchal intolerance) refusal to remove abortion from the Crimes Act when Jacinda embraced the change during the 2017 election campaign.
Luxon said he won't be reversing this now. So it's apparently not a single issue prejudice for younger women.
Perhaps any women commenting here could enlighten us? Kate?
From "The Paradox of Declining Female Happiness" self‐reported subjective well‐being indicate that women are less happy today than they were in the 1970s. This finding of a decline in women’s well‐being, both absolutely and relatively to that of men, raises questions about whether modern social constructs have made women worse of.
Sorry they are much happier...unless you can post some data?
The young educated and skilled have voted with their feet and said see ya after seeing what the coalition were offering, that will impact the survey feeling.
We're undergoing a significant population change which will not be captured by the surveys. It would be great if they also interviewed people when they left to get a better handle on reasons why people are choosing to leave. We're in a global competition for talent, I'm not sure many people grasp this.
In a much larger way our low wage economy and high cost housing markets (both rental and for ownership) have left little to no future for those trying to live in the same mindset and to ethically live. Even young greens in NZ leave for Aus and overseas to work in FF & environmentally damaging jobs based on the merest offering of higher wages, more affordable housing & food. It is not a case of who is in government. Most survey's show people generally leave a country for certain reasons and in NZ we currently have: family obligations overseas, job opportunities/career growth, cost of living comparison including housing, NZ lacking essential medical care needed for survival, and the desire for an OE to boost experiences as the main reasons to leave.
We have a much more limited pool coming back as none of those reasons to leave improve here over time compared to overseas, (at best the experience gained working overseas can help increase the potential wage in NZ... but it does not solve the severe housing affordability issues).
However we also have high migration from many 3rd world countries to NZ for those same reasons, (except the better wages, housing & career growth part is relative to many nations lower caste and many would move simply for the access to long term benefits and would work for next to nothing, live in illegal deplorable conditions until they or family could claim them). If we flipped a coin could we say those leaving the country were worth the same skills as those coming into the country. I have seen theatre & ER nurses working as carers at near minimum wage, while much of our building industry is unskilled labor working for amounts that cannot afford individual bedrooms let alone housing. We have many sectors that have been made up largely of migration labour, with poor controls to prevent fraud, manipulation, and with wages that lead to poor living standards.
Take a look at our essential skills list to see why that is allowed to continue. Yet with a rapidly growing and ageing population we have caught ourselves in a real rut. We cannot seem to get the right staff mix and those we train here in essential roles we discourage gaining experience, future career growth and wages to afford to live on. We just hire from outside NZ instead regardless of actual experience & without fixing the issues that caused loss of staff. Just look at the staff mix in our govt depts and councils. Look at the dysfunction and burnout in our health system. We openly encourage a lack of equitable opportunity and lowering living standards in NZ for those born here.
There is a serious issue in NZ in that we openly encourage drops in living standards and have been on a steamroller to discourage essential skilled rolls. Meanwhile we increase the dept staffing rates & pay above and beyond that of the main workforce. We value those who can drive ego not social services & infrastructure. Our main nursing workforce in the community are at minimum wage (the govt actually funds them below min wage and does not fund public holidays/annual leave leaving private citizens and companies to make up the gap). Our main building workforce we cannot even trust anymore and have no civil justice options when things go wrong. Infrastructure training and career options is a mess and has been for a while. Our main retail workforce have been abused and threatened so much even the employers take advantage beyond mere bullying (let alone the customers). Our tech sector has more broken code and fraud that we ended up with billions lost to systems that never live up to the sales pitch and opened us up to more theft. Should we perhaps look at what is classed as essential still and look at the wages on offer for such essential roles & the local training required (with the tech training in NZ the most abysmal). Or should we keep pretending that a minimum wage job pushing a vacuum is so complex no one in NZ could do it, especially not those leaving govt dept roles. Oh dear me no. We need more high paid consultancy, research, managerial & policy jobs for them while we still have nurses and what should be skilled roles on rock bottom wages. Easy to see part in where we are going wrong in NZ with the media outcry over jobs going in depts on that angle alone.
So would any person or parent willingly choose a worse lifestyle for their future if they had the opportunity to leave? Keep in mind health, housing, access to work & education are a key factor in leaving NZ and for a long time we have nothing to offer in comparison to even our closest neighbour except ease of benefit access upon retirement. Even America is over 30 years ahead of NZ and that is a pretty bad state of affairs. There are rats on subway stations in the US that have better access to work, medical care and food then much of the NZ public. Go team.
I have four daughters and one daughter in law in that age group. Not a single one support major parties. All own property and have kids but none of them work full time. Their careers, and they do have successful careers, are sorted around family which also ranks higher than their partners career. Whanau is everything.
They all consider themselves extremely lucky . They hate the main parties for the country they have created, they hate the housing ponzi and the concentration of most on having to work long hours.
You'd have to look at what the coalition is offering. Basically for petrol heads, tough on crime, corporate mentality, smoking, ignore climate change, nothing overall younger female friendly. People voted to punish labour , not for the coalition. I am only surprised younger males, and older woman support them.
you do realize most our public transport, medical system, food, trades (e.g. electrical & sewage) and fashion is moved on roads. Or are townships being cut off from medical centers, going without power & water for weeks, crashing buses and shortages of main food supplies really what gets you up in the morning.
In many towns there are potholes that significantly cause high risk crashes and damage that threaten human life. Potholes that grow into larger collapses of the road surface & safe transport. But sure who cares eh all those things (public transport, medical system, food, trades e.g. electrical & sewage etc etc) are not needed to live eh. Sure most people can source their own food tomorrow if there were no stocked stores, foodbanks, etc and who actually needs hospitals and ERs to function anyway. Who cares if the bridges wash out, state highways collapse and towns are cut off.
Not you.
After all you are one of the lucky ones who never actually needs to use power and sewage installations in your home. You can live without buying anything that was made more then a few km from your home. Your home & all furniture was made from items sourced less then a few km away. You never needed a hospital or medical supplies even when you were born, you anti vax special child. After all you're special so the lives of other humans does not matter to you at all. Tell me what are you typing on again... did it use magic to travel to your hands.
Lets be honest. We are running out of debt we can cripple future generations with so the upkeep of everything is a tradeoff of opportunity costs and we already decided significant amounts of the population we cannot afford to let them live so we cut off their essential needs. Who else would you have us cut out of society and from living... Anyone else you want to cut off/die in short order so you can have more luxuries you do not actually need.
Most younger women actually advocate for a tough on crime approach especially when it comes to sexual and intimate partner violence crimes. Strangely the offer of in person mediation with your rapist so they can have a sentence of community detention while returning to the same spaces, classes and businesses as you never really appeals to young women... I wonder why. Why can't most young women appreciate the position of their rapist and that they were merely under the weather at the time... hmm. I am sure you have the answer to that one.
With sexual offenses & reporting of sexual offenses rising and more and more repeat sexual offenders being released into the community to offend again is it a surprise that the lets not be tough on crime, no prison approach might not appeal to those whose lives are literally under threat should their attacker get released even temporarily. After all the rates of trauma are increasing while at the same time adequate support & access to support for victims is dropping. Even access to police & ambulance during emergency life threatening events is dropping significantly. Hence it is not unusual for many young women to be all for "tough on crime" the moment they actually realize the actual level of threat they face with an attack and the real lack of justice and protection for their lives.
Look at those calling for the tough on crime approach the most and it is victim & survivor organizations, those harmed and their families. Those who deal with a steady influx of those so harmed and damaged they will never actually recover from attacks. They often can be not only experiencing long term MH trauma but physical impairments from the attacks as well. We don't offer them even a modicum of the same support we offer offenders of crime. So yeah they are angry at the lack of redress and physical protection from being harmed again by the same person. No surprises you seek to claim National is tough on crime when for a long time the key drivers were victims and their families and the greatest abusers & criminals are those in higher positions of privilege and power. Think less of the kid down the street on-selling their weed and think more on the next door wealthy students who drug drinks, the uncle who will be released back into the victims community space for home detention or the highly respected priest caught abusing children. Think on the numerous perpetrators who walk back out to community detention even with rape or deaths on their hands. All because none could be held truly accountable for their actions because how could they know mortal wounding can kill or that rape can harm people. Its also not like a teenager or someone in their 20s can comprehend stabbing someone could kill them. Nope that is such a complex idea that a teenage brain cannot understand the cause and effect. Neither could they understand that if a person says No or if you drugged them first then do not continue to rape them as they do not want it and that it causes harm. Nope way too complex to understand. How about if you are a teacher, that you should not sexually abuse students and attack them... nope those standards are too complex for NZs teaching council to uphold.
Come back next week to claim we need no prisons for such offenders as they are way too goodhearted, they should have access to all the same spaces as the victims and they pinky promise not to do it again (even though they have already repeatedly done it to multiple victims).
Easy answer, social benefits. Predominantly women still are raising children even in single parent households (or actually especially in single parent households). Most carer roles are not appreciated and even public health carers are also significantly underpaid. Yet women even while struggling to hold down 2 or more jobs are still required to pay for housing & essentials so benefits are a large source of income.
It is easy to draw votes when you brand yourself the giver of social benefits, and the opposition must be the one to take them away. Take for instance Labours marketing slip up when they pushed heavily that National was going to take away disabled funding for public transport (despite Labour never having provided this or even access to PT in the first place) and that National were going to cut disability benefits (despite Labour having cut the funding and reduced it below the agreed levels so they ran out months before years end so had to stop providing essential needs like wound care, food prep, hygiene & medical checks) and that National were going to can pay equity settlements (despite Labour actually having done so years before for many female dominated underpaid roles with releases that there could be no more applications or extensions far before the election with just a whisper of press release). Or that Labour had already put in place policies to cut benefits and kept systems that entrench social deprivation and discrimination in the last few years so many women who cannot work cannot even access social benefits; all while claiming it would be National to do this if elected (got to keep the threat of a sword hanging over the heads of the populace in case they don't do what you want them to). So many women are forced into abusive relationships to survive.
It is easy to paint Labour as the party of social benefits even though they are actually closer to the opposite. However it is the universal benefit above the age of 65 that is crippling the country, taking away the opportunity to fund those in need of support. It is the largest costing social benefit (compared to all other benefits combined) that is the least needed and that no party actually will touch so those currently drawing on it will ever need to worry about cuts to it. So again misinformation in marketing but effective in targeting the demographic desired as parents, especially mothers, heavily influence the votes of their children who are starting to vote.
The Greens, NZ First etc & other parties (in fact all parties) are the same with the same corruption & fraudulent marketing. TPM was just more blatant with the vote buying. But all parties lie, National, Act, Labour Greens etc they all lie and they are all in many ways self serving and blatant in dog whistles. The difference is the marketing spin on those lies to cater to different markets and how stupid most the public is.
Sadly with dropping rates of education and less time for people to read and understand history & political vs dept branches of govt we really have a problem that all marketing and misinformation can find the NZ public easy targets. This is a problem in many ways as misinformation tactics can be used for a cause and against a cause. The more people are drawn into us vs them the less they critically think as it becomes more of a meaningless sport with artificially drawn sides to fight of evil doers and lots of dog whistles. Just replace your imagined caricatures of them for your imagined caricatures of us. Compare each sides imagined version of evil doer, they are not real people just storybook villains a party puts up to distract the general public.
No party is without marketing lies, misinformation and dog whistles in this country. The less educated the public the better for them, sadly, hence most have stuck to plans to continue to reduce education standards. The more we allow cognitive biases and lack of education in our teaching staff and youth the more we have it in our adult population as well. Sadly this trend is continued as the teacher training is lacking much of science, reading techniques, basic mathematics techniques and even general knowledge... the amount of basic education needed for teaching staff gets larger with each year we allow declining standards in primary & high school education.
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