A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; Auckland auction results gruesome, migrant remittances rise, commodity prices rise, swaps unchanged, NZD on hold, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here either.

GRUESOME SLOWDOWN
Last week there was a jump in the number of properties being auctioned, but only 30% of them sold under the hammer. In Auckland it was only 18% and vastly different from Christchurch's 86%.

LARGER WORKFORCE BUT NOT LARGER SPENDING
Kiwibank economists note that as migrants send some portion of their wages back to their home countries this suggest weaker local consumption than otherwise.

TAILWIND
Commodity prices rose in April, were boosted by a sagging NZD. The ANZ World Commodity Price Index lifted +0.5% in April from March as stronger meat and aluminium prices offset further weakness in forestry returns. In New Zealand dollar terms, the index gained +2.7% in the month as the TWI fell. Year on year, prices are up +3.2% in world price terms, up a sharpish +7.3% in NZD terms. But both are still well below the 2022 highs.

ON THE WAY BACK UP
Westpac NZ reported a profit rise in their latest half-year results, after big drop in loan impairment charges. It rose to $562 mln for their half year. They report that fewer customers are suffering hardship than they expected. The bank sees "good momentum", and is optimistic the economy will start improving by end of this year.

CHINA'S SERVICE SECTOR EXPANDS
In China, the private Caixin services PMI brought some good solid news. It was little-changed in April from the expansion in March, now the 16th straight month of expansion of services their services sector. This private survey reports a faster expansion than the official version. Of special note is that new business grew the most in nearly a year and the fastest since May 2023. Foreign sales rising the most in ten months.

EASING
In Australia, the Melbourne Institute monthly inflation monitor for April found an increase in monthly inflation, although annual inflation continues to decline. Annual changes in the cost of living also fell for most household types.

HIGHER DEMAND BRINGS HIGHER PRICES
It is very noticeable that mineral prices are on the rise again. That includes zinc, nickel, tin, lead, aluminium, and copper. A rise in global demand is behind the broad recent increases. There are some tighter supply points too as is usual in the transition.

SWAP RATES STABLE
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be little-changed. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 5.63%, a level it has hovered around for more than 70 days. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps from this morning, now at 4.45%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bps after their holiday at 2.32%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp to 4.86% and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.78% and down -3 bps from Friday. The UST 10yr yield is currently little-changed from Saturday's close at 4.50%. Their 2yr is now at 4.88%, so the curve is shallower at -30 bps inverted.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is down a sharpish -0.9% to start the week in late trade. However the ASX200 is up +0.6% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is on holiday (Children's Day). Hong Konh has opened little changed, but Shanghai is up a full +1.0%, returning after a week's holiday so this is catchup. Singapore is up +0.4% at its open. The S&P500 futures suggest Wall Street will open tomorrow little-changed from its Friday close.

OIL HOLDS SOFT
The oil price is remains today from this morning, at just over US$78/bbl in the US, while still just over US$83/bbl for the international Brent price.

GOLD FIRM
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$10 from this morning, now just under US$2311/oz.

NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from this morning at 60.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are marginally softer at 90.8 AUc. Against the euro we are also softer at 55.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 69.3, and little-changed.

BITCOIN STABLE
The bitcoin price has risen to US$64,106, and very little difference from the US$64,262 when we opened this morning. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at +/-1.2%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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