Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
ASB tweaked some fixed rates by cutting both their 6 and 12 month rates by -6 bps to 7.39%, and raising its five year rate by +6 bps to 6.75%. These changes tend to line them up with the carded rates of their main rivals.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ASB tweaked some TD rates too. They cut their three year offer by -55 bps to 5.55%, and their four year rate by -10 bps to the same level.
TOP END INDICATION
Fonterra raised its milk price forecast by +25c to the range $7 to $8/kgMS, or a mid-point of $7.50/kgMS. They did this by raising the bottom end of their range. Fonterra also said that they are upgrading their earnings forecast (but haven't given a dividend indication). In the 26 years we have been monitoring the Fonterra payout, the latest 2023/24 level is the sixth highest. Also, Rabobank reset their forecast higher at $7.70/kgMS today.
JUST POLITICS?
A business sentiment survey run by Canterbury Employers came in with a very pessimistic view in August. But that has turned up sharply in the December survey released today. Unfortunately, that just adds to the impression that surveys of business people are essentially political.
LOCAL AUTHORITY REVENUES
In the year to September, rates and regulatory income from local authorities rose +9.8%. That is the fastest this has grown since 2009.
THINKING AHEAD
The Aussies have been looking ahead at where their population is going. Today their official statisticians said that in 50 years, their current 26 mln population will grow to at least 34 mln and could well reach 46 mln if the current high immigration does not slow. These forecasts assume the current ten year average annual growth rate (+1.4%) is projected to decline to between +0.2% and +0.9%. Even with high immigration, their median age (38.5 years) is projected to increase to between 43.8 and 47.6 years. over the next 50 years. (For reference, New Zealand's current median age is 38 years.) Australia currently has five times as large population than New Zealand. If that relationship held to 2071 our population would grow to between 7.5 mln and 9 mln.
SWAPS HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are probably marginally firmer today. However, the key reaction will come at the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -1 bp at 5.63% and now +13 bps above the OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -5 bps 4.26%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 2.71%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is holding, up +1 bp at 4.93%, while the earlier RBNZ fixing was at 4.87% which was up +3 bps today. The UST 10 year yield is now at 4.13% and down -6 bps from yesterday. The UST 2yr is now at 4.60% so that key curve inversion is marginally higher at -41 bps.
EQUITIES RETREAT FURTHER
The NZX50 is heading for a minor -0.1% retreat in late trade today. But the ASX200 is down a more substantial -0.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened down -1.6% in a continuing back-peddling. Hong Kong has opened down -1.7% and is now down -4% for the week so far. Shanghai is down -0.4% at its open. And Singapore is down -1.0% at its start. The S&P500 ended down -0.4% in Wednesday trade in New York.
OIL SLIPS YET AGAIN
The crude oil price is down -US$2.50 from yesterday, now at US$70/bbl in the US, and the Brent benchmark is at US$74.50/bbl. Although to be fair, most of this retreat happened last night.
GOLD FIRMS SLIGHTLY
In early Asian trade, gold is now at US$2028/oz and up +US$8 from this time yesterday. Earlier in New York it closed at US$2025/oz. And earlier still it closed in London at US$2026/oz.
NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is moved sideways from this time yesterday, now at 61.4 USc. Against the Aussie we have risen +20 bps to 93.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 57 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is little-changed at 70.6.
BITCOIN TAKES A BREATHER
The bitcoin price has moved up to US$43,940 and up a mere +0.2% from where this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 1.0%.
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44 Comments
The Aussies have been looking ahead at where their population is going. Today their official statisticians said that in 50 years, their current 26 mln population will grow to at least 34 mln and could well reach 46 mln if the current high immigration does not slow.
Subjectively it feels they're heading towards socio-economic collapse. You cannot have unconstrained popn growth without the requisite spend on infrastructure. And nobody seems to be challenging this at all, except those on the 'fringe' like Maccy B.
I've read it, you might be right one day. But at the moment:
- The government has money - they can afford $3 billion for a tiny tax cut for example. The Aussie government has even more money.
- People can build stuff for money - it happens on a daily basis.
- So the only thing missing is for the government to give some money to people to build stuff - not sure why this bit is so hard.
Add on all the infrastructure that is coming up for renewal and the fact it's increasingly going to get more expensive to extract energy and materials and transport them, we're reaching a tipping point. The recent record rate increases is not even keeping us treading water.
Hamilton council still has 700 thousand to move the bus stop that is directly outside the peaches and cream adult shop. Event though the stop and the shop have both been there for many years the new councillors wish to use their new brooms.
The same council sold off all their major income generating land and buildings assets for peanuts. They wasted the proceeds.
Seems in an invalid word.
And folk don't just occupy land - they need supporting acres.
And in the last 100 years, we added underground-stored, fossilised acres. Those are half-gone. Trying to displace those fossil acres using real-time above-ground ones, means about 2 billion global inhabitants. Extrapolate for Aus/NZ.
Physics just IS.
Seems?
I bags being Lord Humungus
Nobody challenging? More like no one has a choice. A vote for tweedle dum, or tweedle dumber, same bollocks. Socio economic collapse will come after the environmental collapse. We'll see what happens when they can only bath in recycled sewerage once a week when it's 40+deg every day for two months.
...if the current high immigration does not slow.
At present if you extrapolate out declining fertility rates we'll get there well before the UNs 2050 estimate. Global population growth is slowing rapidly. Most people who move countries are young, there will be fewer young people:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population-by-age-group-with-project…
Seeing as we are already a few billion above planet Earths carrying capacity and we are drawing down nonrenewable resources and turning them into toxic waste as fast as possible, there's more factors than just declining fertility to extrapolate future population.
agree i think long term dep prob good right now , but is see mortgages reseting to 5.6-5.85% as the base rate for 1-2 years forget lower , if it does go lower you will have a lot more to worry about then your mortgage payments, the world will be screwed
As the big squid says we are moving to a time where bad news is BAD NEWS
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