What happened Tuesday

Economy / news

A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; housing market stays cold, job ad levels fall, incomes up faster than inflation, inflation expectations stay high, swaps up, NZD stable, & much more

15th Aug 23, 3:59pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
Nothing today.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None to report so far here either.

STAYING COLD
The July REINZ report shows that the housing market remained cool in July. There was not a lot of movement with sales volumes low, the median price down slightly and the HPI up slightly.

FEWER JOB ADS
Job ads fell for a fourth consecutive month in July, down -25% from the same month last year. The anticipated sharp cooling in the labour market is beginning. It is toughest in the south, and toughest in the FIRE sector.

PRESCIENT?
The RBNZ household inflation expectations survey, one they are paying much more attention to these days, shows households expect CPI inflation to be 6.0% over the next year, and then fall to 3.3% in the following year. Interestingly StatsNZ said CPI inflation was 6.0% in the year to June, so there isn't the divergence there used to be. But 6% is still far above where the RBNZ needs it to be. These same households said house prices will be unchanged in a year, but up +7% in five years time. More here.

CASH EARNINGS SLIP
NAB's Q3 trading update revealed that cash earnings before tax and credit impairment charges declined -5% on margin pressure and more credit provisioning. NAB is BNZ's parent. BNZ represents 9% of the NAB Group assets. Full year results for the year to September won't be released on November 9, 2023 and that is when we will get BNZ details. In the 2021/22 year BNZ earnings rose +13.7% when the NAB Group earnings rose +8.2% in the same period.

INCOMES UP MORE THAN INFLATION FOR MOST
Stats NZ released data today that showed for the year to June 2023, median weekly incomes rose +7.1% to $1273. CPI inflation over the same period was 6.0%. For men the rise was +6.1% and for women by +8.1%. But that still left the overall pay gap at -8.6% for women, they said. Income from Government transfers increased by $30/week of +7.5% to average $432. Income for the self-employed had no change, remaining at $767/week.

'HALF ARE STRUGGLING'
The Retirement Commission says their research reveals over half of the people surveyed this quarter are feeling the pinch financially (54%) with 51% ‘starting to sink, or treading water’ and a further 3.5% ‘sinking badly’. This marks the widest gap between those who are ‘starting to swim/swimming happily’ and those who are ‘treading water/sinking a bit’ since we started surveying back in February 2021. And the gap is widening for women compared to men in terms of optimism, financial sentiment, personal savings and savings for retirement they say.

NERVOUS AHEAD OF THE DAIRY AUCTION
Maybe half our dairy farmers are 'struggling' too? There is a GDT auction event tomorrow. The NZX dairy analysts suggest it will be a weak one, with WMP prices trending toward US$2600/tonne which would be a -9% fall if it got there tomorrow. Rather they think tomorrow will 'only' bring a -6% fall. SMP might bring a -3.3% fall, and butter a -2.2% fall. And they remind us that China has produced +25% more WMP over the last 12 months while the domestic consumption of the commodity down -8.7%. H/T AWB.

HSBC RETAIL WIND-DOWN 'PROGRESSING AS ANNOUNCED'
The wind-down of HSBC's New Zealand wealth and personal banking business "is progressing as announced in June," according to a Sydney-based HSBC spokeswoman. She says HSBC continues "to support and communicate with our customers on items related to their banking needs and ask that our customers contact us if they have any questions." On June 13 HSBC announced it would wind-down its NZ retail banking operations over several years, stopping accepting new customers with immediate effect.

JAPAN SHINES
In Japan, strong export growth propelled their economy in Q2-2023, up at a 6.0% annualised rate, far higher than expected (+3.1%) or the Q1 expansion (+3.7%). It was the third consecutive quarter of strong growth. Japan not only has unusual growth, it also has unusual inflation which is running at a +3.3% rate.

CHINA DATA LACKLUSTER
Meanwhile, China is in economic defence mode. Their central bank cut its one-year medium-term lending facility rate by -15 bps to 2.50% today. It's their biggest cut since 2020. This came after Chinese new bank loans plunged almost -90% from June to the lowest since late 2009. And it came as they released industrial production data that was weaker than expected. This was so even after steel production surged more than +14%, so a sharp cutback there seems almost inevitable. And retail sales were weaker than expected too. However, electricity production was up +3.6% from a year ago, a slightly enhanced rate from June, maybe because they kept production higher than end-market demand. A lot of steel would go into property development, but their national real estate development investment was -8.5% lower than a year ago, and that base wasn't flash in the first place.

SWAPS HIGHER
Wholesale swap rates are probably higher again across all tenors. However, the real action in swap rates comes near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is little-changed yet again at 5.65% and now +15 bps above the 5.50% OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +5 bps from this time yesterday at 4.26%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -5 bps at 2.59% and a three year low. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +5 bps to 5.01% and its highest since 2011, and still higher than the earlier RBNZ fix which was up +6 bps bps at 4.94%. The UST 10 year yield is at 4.20% and up another +2 bps from yesterday and its highest since October 2022. Rising long rates are a global trend (except in China).

EQUITIES SHARPLY LOWER IN SHANGHAI AGAIN
The NZX50 is down a marginal -0.1% again today in late trade. The ASX200 is up +0.5%, mainly on the hope that the Chinese will now come up with significant stimulus. Tokyo has opened its Tuesday session up +0.7% in morning trade. Hong Kong has opened down another sharp -0.9% and Shanghai is down another -2.2%. Fear is spreading over the Chinese economy situation and the locals don't have the Aussie optimism on imminent stimulus. The S&P500 ended its Monday session up +0.6%.

GOLD SOFT
In early Asian trade, gold is at US$1906/oz and down a further -US$5 from yesterday. Earlier in New York it closed at US$1907, and wearlier still in London it closed at US$1904/oz.

NZD ON HOLD
The Kiwi dollar is holding, up +20 bps from this time yesterday at just under 59.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are soft at 92.1 AUc. Against the euro we firm at 54.8 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is at 68.8 and up about +20 bps.

BITCOIN STILL NOT GOING ANYWHERE
The bitcoin price is virtually unchanged - again -since tis time yesterday, now at US$29,351 and up a minor +US$76 or +0.3%. Volatility has stayed low at just on +/- 0.7%.

Daily exchange rates

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Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

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Source: NZFMA

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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65 Comments

by hum | 15th Aug 23, 4:14pm 1692072899

Swap going up again, RBNZ can hope and pretend but they will have to follow.

by Justa comment | 15th Aug 23, 7:59pm 1692086397

The 10 yr breached 5% today. Has been rising strongly.

by cjmain | 15th Aug 23, 4:16pm 1692072988

can someone explain why there is such a big difference between Median hourly earnings which has gone up 6.6% and the wage growth index which is 4.5 (https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/wage-growth), is it because lower wages are going up faster than higher wages and that impacts the median more?

by Advisor | 15th Aug 23, 4:34pm 1692074076

The former is part of QES and the latter is LCI. This is from a Parliamentary paper on why LCI is better

The LCI is the recommended measure of wage growth but the QES is also commonly used. The HLFS (Income) is the least commonly used of the three. Wage growth measured by the QES and HLFS (Income) is less reliable than the LCI as both surveys are sensitive to compositional changes in the workforce that the LCI is not. Compositional changes includes changes such as industries with higher or lower average wages making up a larger share of the hours worked or changes in the make-up of the workforce between higher and lower paid workers

by Advisor | 15th Aug 23, 4:18pm 1692073130

The loss of NZ citizens to Australia at 35k in the year to June 2023 was the largest in a decade

Massey University Sociologist and Immigration expert, Paul Spoonley says we're losing the youngest and brightest of New Zealanders

Spoonley said in an interview that we don't the full scale of the brain drain as he suspects many skilled migrants in NZ that are not NZ citizens (not part of the 35k figure) are also moving to Aussie.

Many with critical skills have direct pathways to residency in Aussie and no longer have to stick around until getting their NZ citizenship.

by Rob Reid | 15th Aug 23, 6:16pm 1692080185

Skilled migrants have no sticking power. They should be here paying rent, working in hospitals and retirement villages on barely adequate wages and paying tax to support our welfare state. Instead they pursue a better standard of living elsewhere. With an attitude like that its good riddance.

by Von Metternich | 15th Aug 23, 8:43pm 1692089012

I wouldn't take Spoonley's word on anything. The guy reinvented himself as an immigration advocate and demographer after the fall of the Berlin Wall, but he was a hard marxist before that. Read his early output from the 70s and 80s, he is an unrepentant Red.

by Foxglove. | 15th Aug 23, 4:22pm 1692073358

NZH headline crypto merchants Dasset likely down the drain. One investor, says $40k represents life savings! Guess this sort of forms the part of the electorate that are inclined to vote for WP & NZF? Only fools and horses. There it is.

by J.C. | 15th Aug 23, 4:28pm 1692073684

NZH headline crypto merchants Dasset down the drain. One investor $40k represents life savings!

As I've said before, Dasset is little more than a conduit for normies taking the plunge (and who haven't done their homework) to get wrecked.

“This has been a slow-moving train wreck for many months. I have Bitcoin on the exchange and have been completely ghosted by the company.”

First, as everyone has been told, you don't keep digital assets on exchanges (except in Japan where exchanges are required to keep 1:1 reserves). If people are not prepared to take individual responsibility, they deserve all they get. May sound harsh but that's the reality.

by Foxglove. | 15th Aug 23, 4:35pm 1692074117

Do believe the reluctance and/or ignorance of NZRs to take individual responsibility is a core issue for the nation negatively speaking. Extraordinary really the level, the attitude of denial and evasion of responsibility that has permeated right through our society

by J.C. | 15th Aug 23, 4:48pm 1692074882

Extraordinary really the level, the attitude of denial and evasion of responsibility that has permeated right through our society

Unfortunately I have to agree with you. And that doesn't just mean people burnt on shonky crypto exchanges, it goes to the top. You might even apply to Princess Xindy. She hardly set an example.

by Foxglove. | 15th Aug 23, 4:53pm 1692075213

Nothing like a clean pair of high heels, over the hills and far away, before the manure hits the rotary blades.

by J.C. | 15th Aug 23, 5:09pm 1692076176

What is quite alarming is that one of the clowns behind Dasset (shareholder) claims to be on the RBNZ's CBDC Forum.

by pacifica | 27th Aug 23, 11:38am 1693093119

That's not hard, more like a forum of clowns with close ties and roles handed to them through nepotism & wealth. In that group a shonky crypto exchange founder who has been shown to have stolen customer funds is really amongst their peers. Ethics and financial prudence be damned. You too can be on that forum with a close friend or family member in the groups formation and a substantial lack of all ethics and morals to collect the checks.

by EdwardD | 15th Aug 23, 5:32pm 1692077556

You would think by now that people understood that DEX is the only way if you hold crypto (and DRS for shares).

by J.C. | 15th Aug 23, 5:46pm 1692078369

You would think by now that people understood that DEX is the only way if you hold crypto

Not necessarily. The depth offered by a CEX I use enables the depth, security, and tax treatment I require, as well as providing an isolated, secure cash facility.

by Hardly | 15th Aug 23, 5:58pm 1692079139

Some people consider crypto is a good hedge because they are worried about fiat currencies failing lol.

by J.C. | 15th Aug 23, 6:06pm 1692079590

Some people consider crypto is a good hedge because they are worried about fiat currencies failing lol.

Plenty of examples of failed fiat currencies. In reality, all fiat currencies fail over time in terms of purchasing power and store of value properties.

Doesn't mean "crypto" is a hedge. Bitcoin possibly.

by Officebound | 15th Aug 23, 4:27pm 1692073620

I really hope the RBNZ isn't paying attention to consumers expectations of CPI.

For as long as I can remember, it basically comes out as whatever the last 12 months CPI was....

by J.C. | 15th Aug 23, 4:49pm 1692074971

For as long as I can remember, it basically comes out as whatever the last 12 months CPI was.

Recency bias

by Flying high | 15th Aug 23, 8:01pm 1692086500

Trump Junior muddled his lines saying

"Trump has the charisma of a mortician and the energy that makes Jeb Bush look like an Olympian"

Unbelievable, he meant to say Ron De Santis!! Now Trump, who's the person with dementia???

I'll add, I absolutely hate Trump Jnrs body language and expressions.

https://youtube.com/shorts/IEWAHdK1-l4?feature=share

by J.C. | 15th Aug 23, 4:30pm 1692073843

In Japan, strong export growth propelled their economy in Q2-2023, up at a 6.0% annualised rate, far higher than expected

Now for the bad news. in 2021, PM Kishida confirmed Japan has overstated construction data used in GDP. The relevant Ministry had exaggerated data for nearly a decade, according to the media.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-15/kishida-confirms-jap…

by Advisor | 15th Aug 23, 4:53pm 1692075195

Most large European economies (Finland, Germany, Belgium, Netherland, Sweden, Denmark) are posting a significant pick-up in inflation pace in July. It might be a while before the inflation genie is back in the bottle despite the economies having ground to a halt.

Inflation Rate Mom - Countries - List | Europe (tradingeconomics.com)

by IT GUY | 15th Aug 23, 4:33pm 1692073993

Anyone else reading The polling that The Guardian is doing in NZ

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/12/youthquake-rumbles-to-a-s…

Polling released this week in the inaugural Guardian Essential poll found that among New Zealand’s 18- to 34-year-olds, just 20% were voting for Labour, the major centre-left party, compared with almost 40% supporting the centre-right National party. Support was not being distributed further left – the Labour-Greens coalition accounted for 34% of millennial votes, compared with a National-Act coalition sitting at close to 50%.

by Zwifter | 15th Aug 23, 4:37pm 1692074227

Hardly a surprise is it ? I'm expecting Labour to drop to between 22% and 25% support on Election day.

by JimboJones | 15th Aug 23, 4:40pm 1692074443

I'd agree, particularly if the economy goes down further. Unless National put their foot in it of course, hard to rule that out...

by Foxglove. | 15th Aug 23, 4:50pm 1692075058

Agree to agree here and would think this poll is a solid pointer to Labour being even further behind on election day. Hard to defy gravity when on a slippery slope. But take your point. National are quite capable of shooting themselves in the foot, if some of the goofy and thoughtless utterances of late, are any measure.

by Independent_Observer | 15th Aug 23, 5:16pm 1692076596

I think this is an election you want to lose. Sit on the sidelines and watch the mess. If National look good/impressive over the next 3 years given the economy they are likely to be taking over, I will be really surprised (and that is regardless of any political bias - I think whoever takes over risks looking very poor).

by Landgirl | 15th Aug 23, 10:04pm 1692093882

Agree - the scale of the policy mess is immense and the funds are non-existent. Whoever is in charge has nothing but the public (assets, taxes, or less service) left to wring money from and that means they won’t be popular in three years. Given we aren’t at war, we don’t have a common threat and we all feel the current mess isn’t our fault - it’s hard to see the nation rallying to provide such self sacrifice. Political quagmire awaits.

by Flying high | 15th Aug 23, 10:12pm 1692094354

If lab lose big, the gnats only have to be ok as a guvermint. Labour will be in opposition in disarray. Already they are in- fighting

by Hamish | 15th Aug 23, 10:54pm 1692096851

I think between all the MPs in parliament at the moment, you'd struggle to pick a 'best of' team which could form a competent cabinet. And of course, you want some semblance of a competent opposition to keep the ruling party(s) on their toes.

by Advisor | 15th Aug 23, 4:44pm 1692074652

I don't think NZ National are any better than the incompetent lot running the show right now. Why anyone would vote for them is beyond me, instead of voting Act and giving Seymour more bargaining power to keep NZ National from turning into Labour-lite.

by JimboJones | 15th Aug 23, 4:49pm 1692074991

I wonder if we will get a repeat of the last election once Labour slump further - Labour voters voting for National to keep the looney right ACT out.

by WellingtonInvestor | 15th Aug 23, 4:53pm 1692075194

They aren't and based on what some come out and say, some seem to live in their own entitled world as a career politician. I don't know who to vote for because I don't like the policies of any of the parties. I wish we could pick and choose policies. At the moment it looks like the retirement age will effectively be rising to 67 for most people under 50, despite voting in Labour to successfully reverse this policy 6 years ago. People didn't want it, but it is going to come in by default on the back of National based on current polling.

by General Comment | 15th Aug 23, 5:03pm 1692075834

FWIW (which isn't much) I'm under 50 and have no problem at all with moving the super age up to 67. I don't know if anyone is still forced to retire at 65, and with the number of healthy over-65s still working it's little more than a bonus payment for not dying young. Those with health issues before the age of 65 have a number of other benefits to support them for the 2 gap years.

If there's any govt super at all by the time I'm 65 I'll be quite amazed.

by WellingtonInvestor | 15th Aug 23, 5:45pm 1692078300

The issue I have is that many won't really have a choice to retire at 65 if they want to access your Kiwisaver, as that too gets increased to 67. If they kept kiwisaver withdrawal at 65, then that would at least allow people who have saved for their retirement and want to retire at 65 to retire earlier. Or those that have o choice but to retire due to the sort of work they do. Otherwise people will need to save an extra $70k in the 15 + years (if they are near 50), at least, to retire at 65.

by singautim | 15th Aug 23, 9:44pm 1692092660

Good point. No reason for access to Kiwisaver to coincide with receipt of Super. In fact it may be a good idea to have them spaced.

by WellingtonInvestor | 16th Aug 23, 12:56am 1692104183

IMO it is a no brainer to decouple KiwiSaver eligibility from Super eligibility. But no one seems to notice that this is going to occur and what it means. Despite it having the potential to significantly affect peoples lives at that age. It potentially means people can still retire at 65 and get access to their Kiwisaver to cover them until Super Kicks in. I guess the winners will be the banks and Kiwisaver managers who get an extra 2 years of KiwiSaver fees off people, and these fee at 65,66, and 67 could be very large.

by Pat.T | 15th Aug 23, 4:54pm 1692075260

Zwifter, hope your prediction becomes a reality, they are a disaster, the GST announcement that will save a family $5 a week is pointless, the costs to administer it may exceed the gain.

They would have been better to target those who require it by lifting benefits etc by another $5 a week.

The Labour caucus has lost the plot bid time.

by JimboJones | 15th Aug 23, 4:39pm 1692074380

Not surprising at all. Young people don't care about bread and butter issues, they want environment policies and affordable housing, all things Labour promised at previous elections then failed to achieve.

The article says Labour have gone more centre with Hipkins, I would suggest it is the opposite, they have gone more socialist with handouts in every direction, but less progressive.

by WellingtonInvestor | 15th Aug 23, 5:49pm 1692078546

I think they gave a lot more handouts under JA. The wage subsidy IMO was the biggest rort, where they should have required it to be paid back if it wasn't needed. We all then end up paying for it, despite only a % of NZers getting it.

by Te Kooti | 15th Aug 23, 5:02pm 1692075764

Where did they find the 18-34 year olds, I thought they'd all left? I saw an interview with a couple of Kiwi cops on the beach in the GC loving life.

by WellingtonInvestor | 16th Aug 23, 12:57am 1692104253

Many will want to come back if there is another pandemic of globel warming gets worse, or for retirement.

by JimboJones | 15th Aug 23, 5:04pm 1692075852

This article confirms a lot of things I have been saying: https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/300950485/we-live-on-bare-basics…

Rent is way too high. Almost takes up an entire income. Need to build more houses
There is already a lot of government help for poor people, $500 a week in WFF!
Having 6 kids on one minimum wage income is going to be tough, always has been and always will be. Taxing the buggery out of everyone else to try and fix this inequality will just make everyone poorer. I guess that does address inequality!

by tomjones_04 | 15th Aug 23, 5:22pm 1692076941

What's Nationals stance on affordable housing? Genuine question. We need an immediate solution, medium term solution, and a long term solution. Not band aids.

by The Person | 15th Aug 23, 7:42pm 1692085373

They cancelled affordable housing a couple of months ago. Going with a slow drip feed of super expensive to service far away greenfield.

by Advisor | 15th Aug 23, 5:24pm 1692077050

Need to build more houses

That's an oversimplification. We bring most of the skills, materials and capital from overseas and yet have high build costs, keeping our residential construction sector in a permanent boom-bust loop.

We just lost a once-in-a-generation opportunity to try and fix this when National decided to withdraw its support from the half-decent planning reforms proposed by Labour.

by tomjones_04 | 15th Aug 23, 5:44pm 1692078275

I've heard build more houses for decades! We just spin our wheels. I'd be looking internationally at good pre-built solutions for the near term. Kit sets. Make tax on land high, so land banking is discouraged. Consult internationally and get apartment blocks built. We make such a meal of building good quality/affordable homes for our young. It makes me angry all the bickering and beauracracy. Just get it done.

by WellingtonInvestor | 15th Aug 23, 5:50pm 1692078631

IMO we don't want to be looking at Australia for how to build houses, because they seem to have some major issues with quality of new builds over there and leaks etc.

by WellingtonInvestor | 15th Aug 23, 5:47pm 1692078442

Houses are a bit like a mobile handset. They are useless unless there is the supporting infrastructure to support them. That is NZs problem. It is only a matter of time IMO before we have a power crisis for example, as NZs electricity network demands are likely to skyrocket over the next few decades. .

by Hardly | 15th Aug 23, 6:02pm 1692079331

Snip

by Audaxes | 15th Aug 23, 5:17pm 1692076672

CNY DOWN = BAD

Another rough day for yuan, the PBOC, and dollar dooming. No is actually a dollar bull, just aware of how the dollar works meaning Euro$. It is getting alarmingly tight...right in time for September. https://buff.ly/45kwLxa Link

by Independent_Observer | 15th Aug 23, 5:36pm 1692077816

Interesting that the 1 year swap is flat, but rising for the longer durations (i.e. have a look at 3, 5, 10 year).

Could it be that we are starting to see the yields return to a normal spread? (i.e. so they are no longer inverted?)

If so, in the past, this is when financial markets tend to break - in the months after the yields return to a normal spread.

by nzphoenix | 15th Aug 23, 7:38pm 1692085109

Tick tock.

by Justa comment | 15th Aug 23, 8:02pm 1692086523

Yes 10 yr breached 5% today. Looks like some are picking higher for a lot longer.

by Matt_B | 15th Aug 23, 8:32pm 1692088325

The only way is up

by Hardly | 15th Aug 23, 5:52pm 1692078751

Apparently China isn’t going to report youth unemployment anymore.

https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1691272122306289664?s=20

by Rob Reid | 15th Aug 23, 6:29pm 1692080984

Hardly surprising - it's a politically inconvenient 20%+.

Here is another roundup of how people are just giving up:

(244) ‘Let it rot’: surviving China's high unemployment and cost of living - YouTube

I wonder if they will start rounding them up, loading them on invasion barges and taking them for a 160km cruise with some covering fire?

by Hardly | 15th Aug 23, 8:37pm 1692088637

Good graph showing the rise and fall in economic statistics that China publishes.

https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1691341030925193216?s=46&t=1FTm2FPeEr…

by Rob Reid | 15th Aug 23, 9:27pm 1692091655

Not a problem - as a DGM I'll just assume the worst.

by kiwikidsnz | 15th Aug 23, 6:40pm 1692081631

The USA middle class zeitgeist is going viral this week...helpfully colourblind

(Caution: Country music)

"Rich men north of richmond"

https://youtu.be/sqSA-SY5Hro

by Independent_Observer | 15th Aug 23, 7:00pm 1692082851

Yes lots of shares on twitter - people saying its the type of song that starts a revolution. A lot of what he says is very similar to RFK Junior's campaign views. Even though you would associate this with more republican types. Political lines are quite blurred right now, especially in the US.

by NZGecko | 15th Aug 23, 8:39pm 1692088770

I like it and his others!! Strikes a cord.

Go the Virginga ginger ??

This homeboy from the hooood even like him....

(122) Oliver Anthony - Rich Men North Of Richmond | Reaction - YouTube

by Zwifter | 15th Aug 23, 8:44pm 1692089086

30 seconds of that and I wanted to shoot myself in the head. No wonder they need so many guns over there.

by NZGecko | 15th Aug 23, 9:15pm 1692090916

I rest my case Judge.......

- Wanton Spruikers are heartless sods.