By Roger J Kerr
In the slide deck of a recent presentation on the forecast outlook for the NZ dollar we included a list of the major forces and influences on the NZD/USD exchange rate movements.
Those key determinants and how they might play out to drive the Kiwi dollar in 2017 are summarised as follows:-
The tricky part is assigning weightings to each driver to determine whether the Kiwi moves up or down. Whilst there are more NZD negatives than positives, our overall impressive economic story does not allow anything more than minor depreciation against the stronger US dollar.
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Roger J Kerr contracts to PwC in the treasury advisory area. He specialises in fixed interest securities and is a commentator on economics and markets. More commentary and useful information on fixed interest investing can be found at rogeradvice.com
2 Comments
But what about the real Elephant in the room - a global Banking Crisis - Italy's major Banks are probably insolvent, as is Deutche Bank so if Apple pays its Euro fine and the US pressures Deutche to pay up which it probably cant will there be a domino effect of unprecedented proportions? At some point the EU regulations will require a bail in of a major European Bank and how likely are that countries citizens likely to say that's OK instead of were's the Kalashnikov Klara I am just popping out to shoot some vermin.
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