Has the Reserve Bank of New Zealand intervened to try and drive the NZ dollar down?
In data released today, the RBNZ balance sheet shows it spent at least NZ$199 million selling the NZ$ in December, on top of at least NZ$64 million in late November.
We have asked the RBNZ whether these transactions represent part of a programme to modify the rising pressure on the currency. A spokesperson said "We do not comment on these statistics."
The last time they acknowledged doing this was in June/July/August 2007 when they spend at least NZ$2.3 billion trying to suppress the currency. At that time the TWI had risen to 76.88 on July 24, 2007. It fell to 67.9 by the end of August 2007.
The RBNZ was back in the market as a net seller of the NZ$ in the period February to May 2008 selling another NZ$1.5 billion. Over this period the TWI reached a high of 74.2, and ended that period at 69.7.
The TWI ended today at 75.42 and reached a recent high of 75.71 on January 11, 2013. The all time high was 76.88 on July 24, 2007.
Today's data release suggests some minor level of intervention, although it has had no material impact in lowering the currency.
It is quite possible given the low values involved that other central bank activities could have generated the data, such as funding New Zealand's commitments to international organisations.
The next time this data is released will be Wednesday, February 27.
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6 Comments
Good news if they have intervened. I had wondered that the TWI seems to have hit a peak, even though Japan has announced plans to print trillions, and GB, the US and Europe also still have very active virtual printing presses, which otherwse might have seen the NZD continue northwards. I wonder if Mr Wheeler hopefully has decided that keeping the exchange rate stable, or at least no higher, is essential for trading industries to not all gradually go to the wall. He may just be slowing the water torture (which would be a shame, against actually setting a ceiling), but if he is determined to hold the line, then very good.
By all means then keep the OCR where it is; and not have the exchange rate perform inflation resistance through killing off the industries we actually need to support.
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