economic forecasting
Mohamed El-Erian offers his predictions for the new year while acknowledging that the range of possible outcomes is widening
27th Dec 24, 12:05pm
3
Mohamed El-Erian offers his predictions for the new year while acknowledging that the range of possible outcomes is widening
Mohamed El-Erian considers why economic forecasters have been responding so dramatically to each data release
2nd Sep 24, 12:00pm
Mohamed El-Erian considers why economic forecasters have been responding so dramatically to each data release
Cheaper mortgages, tamed inflation and even higher home prices: how 29 forecasters see Australia’s economic recovery in 2024-25
1st Jul 24, 11:00am
2
Cheaper mortgages, tamed inflation and even higher home prices: how 29 forecasters see Australia’s economic recovery in 2024-25
ANZ's economists cut their house price forecast but admit no one can forecast the housing market with a high degree of precision
26th Jun 24, 3:09pm
37
ANZ's economists cut their house price forecast but admit no one can forecast the housing market with a high degree of precision
Mohamed El-Erian explains how to recalibrate expectations in the face of yet another forecasting failure
27th Apr 24, 9:36am
1
Mohamed El-Erian explains how to recalibrate expectations in the face of yet another forecasting failure
Nouriel Roubini considers what might derail markets' positive baseline scenario for growth, inflation, and monetary policy
9th Jan 24, 12:00pm
13
Nouriel Roubini considers what might derail markets' positive baseline scenario for growth, inflation, and monetary policy
Stephen Roach looks back on his 50 years of forecasting and finds that 'exceptional' crises have been the norm
24th Dec 23, 7:30am
47
Stephen Roach looks back on his 50 years of forecasting and finds that 'exceptional' crises have been the norm
Economist Brian Easton offers some insights into how the forecasters think
Economist Brian Easton says the ongoing decline in market income inequality stopped in the 1980s. Since then it has been stable, while 1990 public policy actively increased disposable income inequality
18th Jul 22, 8:32am
17
Economist Brian Easton says the ongoing decline in market income inequality stopped in the 1980s. Since then it has been stable, while 1990 public policy actively increased disposable income inequality
Economist Brian Easton says we cannot be sure if we are facing secular stagnation, but the answer matters - even in the short term
11th Jul 22, 8:32am
9
Economist Brian Easton says we cannot be sure if we are facing secular stagnation, but the answer matters - even in the short term
Economist Brian Easton says behavioural economics challenges our assumptions about the relevance of rational economic man
4th Jul 22, 9:01am
9
Economist Brian Easton says behavioural economics challenges our assumptions about the relevance of rational economic man
Economist Brian Easton crunches the recent March quarter GDP data
Economist Brian Easton says the outlook does not look that promising
Treasury 'meaningfully' revamps house price forecast methodology, putting more weight on the impact of interest rates
16th Feb 22, 4:31pm
38
Treasury 'meaningfully' revamps house price forecast methodology, putting more weight on the impact of interest rates
Brian Easton notes that journalists' misunderstandings about what makes a useful economic forecast results in entertaining commentary, and ignores the few forecasts that have been done rigorously
31st Jan 22, 9:15am
38
Brian Easton notes that journalists' misunderstandings about what makes a useful economic forecast results in entertaining commentary, and ignores the few forecasts that have been done rigorously
Economist Brian Easton explains why most forecasts never eventuate, often with cringe-worthy explanations. Part of the issue is the media focus on unqualified sources
23rd Aug 21, 8:14am
Economist Brian Easton explains why most forecasts never eventuate, often with cringe-worthy explanations. Part of the issue is the media focus on unqualified sources
Canterbury University's Tom Coupé on economists and climate change, uncontrollable technology, rugby and economics, reaping the gains from international migration and the economics Nobel Prize
25th Oct 19, 10:02am
3
Canterbury University's Tom Coupé on economists and climate change, uncontrollable technology, rugby and economics, reaping the gains from international migration and the economics Nobel Prize
Canterbury University's Tom Coupé on whether we can rely on economic forecasts, the bad reputation of forecasts, why they are important, whether we can become better at forecasting, and whether forecasting happiness is any easier
12th Jul 19, 10:12am
17
Canterbury University's Tom Coupé on whether we can rely on economic forecasts, the bad reputation of forecasts, why they are important, whether we can become better at forecasting, and whether forecasting happiness is any easier
Oliver White looks at how online sales are muddying both our understanding and our measures of inflation. The problem will only get worse, he says
8th Sep 18, 10:02am
4
Oliver White looks at how online sales are muddying both our understanding and our measures of inflation. The problem will only get worse, he says
Rodney Dickens checks how reliable economic forecasters' employment growth predictions are and how useful the leading indicators of employment are
5th Jul 18, 5:00am
9
Rodney Dickens checks how reliable economic forecasters' employment growth predictions are and how useful the leading indicators of employment are
Oliver White wonders if economic forecasting can be replaced by artifical intelligence systems. He finds in fact that this is one of the least likely human jobs to be threatened
21st Jan 18, 7:11am
7
Oliver White wonders if economic forecasting can be replaced by artifical intelligence systems. He finds in fact that this is one of the least likely human jobs to be threatened
David Hargreaves wants to see a new Reserve Bank Governor who is thick-skinned and accepts that people will disagree with them
15th Jun 17, 3:17pm
3
David Hargreaves wants to see a new Reserve Bank Governor who is thick-skinned and accepts that people will disagree with them
Reserve Bank says its forecasting ability could be improved if Statistics New Zealand moved to monthly production of inflation data
15th May 17, 5:00pm
13
Reserve Bank says its forecasting ability could be improved if Statistics New Zealand moved to monthly production of inflation data
The PM doesn’t trust the Treasury’s forecasts for the very long term and the very short term, but he thinks we should rely on the medium term one that says we can afford tax cuts, extra social spending, the quake rebuilds and debt repayment
4th Dec 16, 5:02am
34
The PM doesn’t trust the Treasury’s forecasts for the very long term and the very short term, but he thinks we should rely on the medium term one that says we can afford tax cuts, extra social spending, the quake rebuilds and debt repayment
RBNZ widely expected to hold OCR at 2.5% this week, but dovish tone expected
26th Jan 16, 11:19am
RBNZ widely expected to hold OCR at 2.5% this week, but dovish tone expected