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Recession

The country's largest bank says the types of spending most sensitive to interest rates are experiencing the largest falls
19th Sep 24, 11:35am
The country's largest bank says the types of spending most sensitive to interest rates are experiencing the largest falls
NZIER's latest consensus forecasts see zero GDP growth in the 12 months to the end of March 2025
16th Sep 24, 2:21pm
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NZIER's latest consensus forecasts see zero GDP growth in the 12 months to the end of March 2025
Activity in New Zealand’s services sector 'inched its way higher' during August
16th Sep 24, 11:53am
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Activity in New Zealand’s services sector 'inched its way higher' during August
David Hargreaves assesses the prospects for the forthcoming quarterly GDP figures, which are likely to be grim, but might hopefully point to better times ahead
15th Sep 24, 6:30am
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David Hargreaves assesses the prospects for the forthcoming quarterly GDP figures, which are likely to be grim, but might hopefully point to better times ahead
David Hargreaves examines the apparently set path we are on to a series of interest rate reductions and wonders if there could yet be some potholes along the way
8th Sep 24, 6:30am
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David Hargreaves examines the apparently set path we are on to a series of interest rate reductions and wonders if there could yet be some potholes along the way
Soaring levels of business confidence in the wake of interest rate cuts have got the economists wondering how quickly the country's economy might get rolling again
3rd Sep 24, 1:15pm
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Soaring levels of business confidence in the wake of interest rate cuts have got the economists wondering how quickly the country's economy might get rolling again
HSBC economist Paul Bloxham is suggesting ways New Zealand could reclaim the former superstar status he bestowed upon us
28th Aug 24, 2:48pm
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HSBC economist Paul Bloxham is suggesting ways New Zealand could reclaim the former superstar status he bestowed upon us
Employment enters weakest period since the Global Financial Crisis with the number of filled jobs down 0.5% on the same time a year ago
28th Aug 24, 1:13pm
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Employment enters weakest period since the Global Financial Crisis with the number of filled jobs down 0.5% on the same time a year ago
While service sector activity recovered a little last month from the 'horrendous' June results, the Performance of Services Index is still below the levels seen during the Global Financial Crisis
19th Aug 24, 11:36am
5
While service sector activity recovered a little last month from the 'horrendous' June results, the Performance of Services Index is still below the levels seen during the Global Financial Crisis
Reserve Bank starts long awaited interest rate cuts, and is forecasting further cuts before the end of the year. It also now sees annual inflation falling to just 2.3% by the end of this quarter
14th Aug 24, 2:11pm
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Reserve Bank starts long awaited interest rate cuts, and is forecasting further cuts before the end of the year. It also now sees annual inflation falling to just 2.3% by the end of this quarter
HSBC economist Paul Bloxham suggests the RBNZ's May Official Cash Rate guidance 'was not a genuine reflection of the central bank's reaction function'
12th Aug 24, 2:20pm
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HSBC economist Paul Bloxham suggests the RBNZ's May Official Cash Rate guidance 'was not a genuine reflection of the central bank's reaction function'
David Hargreaves previews the forthcoming OCR review in which all attention revolves around whether the Reserve Bank will stick to its own script - or acquiesce to the urgings of financial markets for cuts, not so much now, as YESTERDAY, please
11th Aug 24, 6:30am
138
David Hargreaves previews the forthcoming OCR review in which all attention revolves around whether the Reserve Bank will stick to its own script - or acquiesce to the urgings of financial markets for cuts, not so much now, as YESTERDAY, please
Westpac economists say latest Stats NZ data shows jobs market in New Zealand is 'now clearly softening'
29th Jul 24, 1:25pm
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Westpac economists say latest Stats NZ data shows jobs market in New Zealand is 'now clearly softening'
Latest card spending data from the country's biggest bank shows that annual growth has fallen below 1%, suggesting sales volumes are still falling
15th Jul 24, 2:16pm
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Latest card spending data from the country's biggest bank shows that annual growth has fallen below 1%, suggesting sales volumes are still falling
Activity in the service sector has dropped sharply again in June to once again be at the lowest level in 17 years apart from during lockdowns
15th Jul 24, 11:43am
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Activity in the service sector has dropped sharply again in June to once again be at the lowest level in 17 years apart from during lockdowns
Policymakers should stop fighting the last war and start focusing on New Zealand’s post-inflation recovery, Dan Brunskill argues
13th Jul 24, 9:21am
46
Policymakers should stop fighting the last war and start focusing on New Zealand’s post-inflation recovery, Dan Brunskill argues
Kiwibank economists say they would recommend cutting the Official Cash Rate in August
8th Jul 24, 1:45pm
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Kiwibank economists say they would recommend cutting the Official Cash Rate in August
The Reserve Bank's likely to cheerfully ignore the growing clamour for some public indication of when the Official Cash Rate will be cut when it has its next review of the OCR in the coming week
7th Jul 24, 6:30am
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The Reserve Bank's likely to cheerfully ignore the growing clamour for some public indication of when the Official Cash Rate will be cut when it has its next review of the OCR in the coming week
BNZ economists say they hope the Reserve Bank will 'eventually accept' there are a number of relative price increases such as insurance and rates that can be 'looked through'
2nd Jul 24, 10:55am
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BNZ economists say they hope the Reserve Bank will 'eventually accept' there are a number of relative price increases such as insurance and rates that can be 'looked through'
David Hargreaves says it looks too late to 'save' this year, but if we can beat inflation, then the RBNZ will call off the dogs and the prospects for next year will be for a gradual recovery. If we can beat inflation...
30th Jun 24, 7:00am
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David Hargreaves says it looks too late to 'save' this year, but if we can beat inflation, then the RBNZ will call off the dogs and the prospects for next year will be for a gradual recovery. If we can beat inflation...
David Hargreaves sums up the first (nearly) six months of the year and thinks it would be a very good idea to stop it and start again. Unfortunately though, we will have to carry on. Here's what's transpired so far...
23rd Jun 24, 7:00am
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David Hargreaves sums up the first (nearly) six months of the year and thinks it would be a very good idea to stop it and start again. Unfortunately though, we will have to carry on. Here's what's transpired so far...
[updated]
RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway says the country is in a 'slow-to-no-to-negative' growth environment, but the outlook is slightly more positive for the future and the outlook is also for continued declines in inflation
19th Jun 24, 9:49am
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RBNZ chief economist Paul Conway says the country is in a 'slow-to-no-to-negative' growth environment, but the outlook is slightly more positive for the future and the outlook is also for continued declines in inflation
Long-running survey records the worst ever non-Covid-affected level of activity for the services sector; 'This tells of a services sector in reverse at pace'
17th Jun 24, 12:11pm
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Long-running survey records the worst ever non-Covid-affected level of activity for the services sector; 'This tells of a services sector in reverse at pace'
It's a line ball call whether GDP figures out in the coming week will reveal the country still to be in recession or not. But whatever the outcome, economists don't see a particularly rosy path for the economy in the immediate future
16th Jun 24, 6:30am
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It's a line ball call whether GDP figures out in the coming week will reveal the country still to be in recession or not. But whatever the outcome, economists don't see a particularly rosy path for the economy in the immediate future
Latest spending data from the country's biggest bank highlights the extent to which Kiwis have put their wallets away as rising costs and higher interest rates have taken their toll
11th Jun 24, 11:36am
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Latest spending data from the country's biggest bank highlights the extent to which Kiwis have put their wallets away as rising costs and higher interest rates have taken their toll