Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
HSBC raised its floating rate from today (as announced earlier). Bank of China raised most fixed rates by +10 bps and +20 bps for their 1 year rate.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None so far.
TRADING UP STILL AFFORDABLE
What are the prospects like for existing homeowners wanting to upgrade? Moving up the property ladder is still affordable for most existing home owners according to the May edition of our home loan affordability report.
CLOSE TO THE EDGE
So far in 2023 electricity supply has run uncomfortably close to the safety margin almost as often as it did for the whole of last year, which is putting the electricity industry on edge.
ACTING CORPORATE BANKING HEAD FOR ASB
ASB says Gregory Trotter will be its acting Executive General Manager of Corporate Banking from June 30 until a permanent appointment is made. Trotter is currently ASB's General Manager for Global Transactional Banking. ASB announced in April that Nigel Annett, its current Executive General Manager of Corporate Banking, had resigned and would leave on June 30.
BELTWAY CLUB
The Productivity Commission added a fourth Commissioner today. Vicky Robertson will commence a 3-year term in July 2023, joining Chair Dr Ganesh Nana and fellow Commissioners Dr Bill Rosenberg and Dr Diane Ruwhiu. Robertson only has public service credentials. There are currently no Commissioners with any deep commercial credentials.
WIDESPREAD OUTAGE
In Australia, CBA has 15 mln customers, its largest bank by some margin. 7.7 mln of those use its mobile app. Today they suffered a severe service outage that affected the app and debit cards. It is having a widespread impact on commercial transactions across their economy, especially for SMEs.
SWAPS SLIP SLIGHTLY
Wholesale swap rates are again ending today a little softer. However, the real action in swap rates comes near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 5.69% and +19 bps above the 5.50% OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +2 bps from this morning at 3.96%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 2.71%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is at 4.54% and down -6 bps, and that is still higher than the earlier RBNZ fix which was down -7 bps to 4.48%. The UST 10 year yield is now at 3.73% and down -1 bp from this morning.
EQUITY START THE WEEK CONFUSED
The NZX50 has started the week on a downer, down -0.8% in late trade. The ASX200 is down -0.4% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened its week little-changed but on the upside. Hong Kong is down -0.3% in its early trade. But Shanghai is down sharply at its Monday open, down -1.2% as it returns from holiday. The S&P500 might upen up +0.2% if the S&P500 futures are signaling correctly.
GOLD LOWER AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is at US$1925/oz and up +US$5 from morning.
NZD FIRMER
The Kiwi dollar is up +¼c from this morning and now at 61.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +¼c as well at 92.3 AUc. Against the euro we are firm at 56.4 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is up +20 bps at 70.
BITCOIN SLIGHTLY LOWER
The bitcoin price has fallen back slightly today and is now at US$30,201 which is down -1.1% from where we opened this morning. Volatility has been modest at +/- 1.7%.
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59 Comments
The optics of this announcement are not good. For good or bad, it's gone broke. Why are we shovelling good money after bad, when at best, it could have gone to the food bank people? Because so many livelihoods depend on it? They are going anyway, by the looks of it, and if 'things' get bad, keeping them on life-support is probably not in the best of ideas.
Yes, classic stupid move from the government. Maybe they should just give NIWA a call and ask why there isn't enough snow there anymore. Idiotic move, unless there's a bigger plan to turn them into more dry weather business cases. For instance a MTB park during the summer is always a good idea and works everywhere else around the world its done. Maybe a bit more difficult in volcanic rock?
And meanwhile ... Onewoof continues to push the narrative that because rental listings are down then they must be in short supply ....
.... Or maybe they are not in short supply at all and maybe renters are just staying put because renting is currently way cheaper than owning and/or buying.
discl: trying to rent out a relative's two-bed unit on Auckland's North Shore that's within a 5 minute walk of the town center that usually goes on the day it is listed. But this time it's still there after a week and a half.
Is it funny saying OneWoof?
discl: trying to rent out a relative's two-bed unit on Auckland's North Shore that's within a 5 minute walk of the town center that usually goes on the day it is listed. But this time it's still there after a week and a half.
Lol still there after a week and a half...wow thats terrible. Getting interest I bet though or not going to mention that?
Another anecdote: I have been looking for a 3-4 bedder on North Shore for about a month. Plenty coming up but plenty also looking and have had a number of applications rejected. Had some more luck tonight - preferred candidate - cross your fingers for me - I was priced out of buying long ago so scoring a rental is as good as it gets for me.
You probably won't read this but just in case ...
Yes. Getting some interest. (I've just picked it up as my wife's been dealing with it and she is now on holiday.) Feedback is that some tire-kickers are looking for 'new' or 'modern' as they've seen 'new builds' for a 'bit more'. Also want all appliances provided (owner doesn't want to do this, a mistake IMHO).. Recently reno'ed. Rent has gone up by by 3.2% per annum from last rent amount. Given its 'walk-anywhere' location - including to the beach - my view is that they're under-renting and my TradeMe watchlist confirms.
Anyway - my point was a drop in rental listing doesn't necessarily mean what Onewoof's economist suggests (concludes?) it means. People tend to stay put and take less risk in troubled financial times - this is a defining characteristic of a Recession - and can in fact make them longer and deeper.
Any advice that forces the government of the day to rethink its neoliberal stance and fix macroeconomic issues with targeted reforms is not welcome.
The recommendations from the PC on NZ's immigration settings made a lot of sense. In fact, the report even blatantly implies our loose migration settings is a quick fix for policy failures across education & training, narrow tax base, etc.
Huh?? If we all had grid tied solar we would have exactly the same problem! Especially at this time of year when most of the country is completely dark at 6pm, the solar panels aren't doing anything then but catching dew.
The problem is the time of max power usage, 6pm. We need to be producing as much electricity as possible during the busiest period and power companies aren't exactly incentivised to build more power as when the supply is short, their prices are high. So they like to keep this "almost running out of power" situation the same so they can maximise profits. Let's not be naive, they would absolutely love rolling power cuts due to low supply as prices would be off the charts, they would be printing money for shareholders. Same reason OPEC is slashing output, trying to keep energy prices as high as possible.
Solar PV systems are not a standalone solution, especially during cold mornings where solar irrandiance is low.
200k or so households with battery systems installed behind the meter or EVs with V2L charging ability should help reduce some of the excess load during peak winter mornings.
Yes, this is the way. Only a battery backed solar system would work to spread the load, but then it might be better to back it with centralised batteries for better scale and safety etc. I see there is already some batteries being built now by energy companies in NZ to make money off supply price arbitrage.
Janine Grainger, CEO of Easy Crypto recognised as High Tech Inspiring Individual at the IBM High Tech Awards. Few mutterings about Sam Bankman-Fried, Ponzis, and scams around the water cooler when I bought this up.
https://www.hitech.org.nz/awards/winners/year/2023
buy distressed assets
Business collapses have hit the highest monthly level in more than seven years, as failures spread beyond property construction to retail, healthcare, childcare and mining.
Higher interest rates, weaker consumer spending and directors throwing in the keys after a temporary pandemic reprieve are the main reasons for the jump in insolvencies.
Baker McKenzie partner Maria O’Brien says insolvencies are hitting some unexpected sectors. Oscar Colman
Insolvency and restructuring appointments hit 868 last month, the highest monthly result since November 2015, according to analysis of Australian Securities and Investments Commission data.
While some of the spike is attributed to a “catch-up” of struggling businesses that delayed folding during the pandemic, insolvency practitioners say momentum is building after a quiet few years.
¾ of Aussie small business owners taking home less than the average wage according to the Aussie Small Business and Family Enterprise Ombudsman. According to the ABS, 97% of Aussie businesses have less then 17 employees.
https://twitter.com/solo_dio_/status/1673126788556546050
Quelle surprise.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said he's no longer using the term "ESG" (environment, social and governance) because it is being politically "weaponized" and he's "ashamed" to be part of the debate on the issue.
- "I never said I was ashamed," he said, incorrectly. "I'm not ashamed. I do believe in conscientious capitalism."
- "I'm not going to use the word ESG because it's been misused by the far left and the far right," he added.
https://www.axios.com/2023/06/26/larry-fink-ashamed-esg-weaponized-desa…
Hamilton By the Sea - worse traffic than Auckland:
https://i.stuff.co.nz/bay-of-plenty/300909599/worst-city-in-new-zealand…
Good that we have MacroBusiness across the ditch to call nonsense on things. Leith nailing the nonsense that is The Economist’s’Most Liveable City’:
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2023/06/brisbane-is-the-real-most-live…
Electricity demand close to safety margin? Good thing our political overlords and the team of unaccountable lobbyists that set policy aren't stupid enough to create more unnecessary demand then. The surge in immigration must be from people not needing anywhere to live, food to eat, or any other products or services? Obviously not needing a place to live, no energy will be needed for heating either?
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/122698/asb-economists-say-current-in…
Ultimately, when there are particulate rules applied to the whole country, to "protect" our growing 100 000 000 population, you will be relegated to using your heat pump, like everyone else. Although only on days when intermittent elec supply allows, i.e above 10degC. Growth means freeedooommmm......
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