US payrolls swell faster than expected; two US banks collapse; Canadian payrolls stable; Kuroda signs off claiming success; China's bank debt rises quickly; UST 10yr 3.71%; gold up and oil down; NZ$1 = 61.6 USc; TWI-5 = 70.2

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news fears are high at both ends of the scale.

First up today, the US non-farm payrolls were stronger than expected, with the headline number swelling by +311,000 when +205,000 was expected, on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Their strong labour market just keeps on  growing and confounding all analysts. Digging deeper into the actual data, their workforce is now touching 154 mln which is 1.1 mln more than in January. These is data from employer payrolls. If we use the household survey which takes in unincorporated sole traders as well, the employed workforce is 159.7 mln and it expanded by just over +1 mln in February from January. Either way, the demand impetus has risen by more than +1 mln people in February, showing why the Fed's efforts to tamp things down have been insufficient so far.

Bolstering this swelling is that their participation rate is rising, as the healthy jobs market draws more people into employment. That shift is even faster than the jobs growth, and their jobless rate ticked up to 3.6%, although that is still very low.

Markets are in fear mode today about what the Fed will do in two weeks when they next review their monetary policy settings. Equity prices are sharply lower, but bond yields have crashed on these fears (see below). Larry Summers now thinks the Fed will have to raise its policy rate to 6%.

But market fears are more than just what the Fed will do. They have other things to worry about.

Financial markets are being roiled by some banks in crisis. SVB Financial Group (Silicon Valley Bank) has collapsed following a run on their deposits, their largest bank failure since 2008. It has been taken over by its regulator, the FDIC in a move to quickly avert a crisis. It is the first FDIC-insured bank to fail this year. It comes after crypto bank Silvergate abruptly shut down, who is also 'working with the FDIC". Contagion fears are marking down equity prices for all banks, and spilling over to the whole stock market. (Readers should remember that there are more than 5000 banks and S&Ls in the US, and some fail every year. Whether a failure generates a banking crisis very much depends on the size and interconnectedness of the bank in trouble - and whether the authorities organise a restructuring.)

The American budget outcome for February brought the -US$262 bln deficit expected and taking the rolling 12 month total to -$1.4 tln. In the background still are the partisan negotiations for the debt limit expansion. They lurk like a cancer on their political system.

Across the northern border, Canadian payrolls were expected to be unchanged in February after some sharp January growth, and this is what happened, although the actual result was a bit more positive than analyst estimates.

In Japan, the outgoing Bank of Japan governor Kuroda defended his monetary easing policies after his final Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting, claiming success that their economy is nearing the bank's elusive goal of sustained +2% inflation.

Producer prices in Japan increased by +8.2% in February from a year ago, slowing from a +9.5% rise in January. This was less than the expected +8.4% rise and was the lowest producer inflation since October 2021. Of some concern is that the shift in February from January was deflation at almost a -5% rate. They haven't had that in almost 30 months.

China's banks extended ¥1.81 tln in new yuan loans in February, down from a record ¥4.9 tln in the previous month but above market expectations of ¥1.5 tln. It was also the largest amount of new bank loans for a February month since at least 2004.

Indian industrial production rose in January by +5.2% from a year ago, slightly beating the +5% rise expected. This is on top of a good +4.7% rise in December.

We should also note that the La Niña weather pattern is ending and we are moving to more normal climate patterns for the next few months. But later in the year El Niño may well return.

The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.71% and a huge -22 bps dump from yesterday and down -26 bps from a week ago. It is still falling. The UST 2-10 rate curve is sharply less inverted at -93 bps. Their 1-5 curve inversion is more inverted at -103 bps. Their 30 day-10yr curve is sharply more inverted at -99 bps. The Australian ten year bond has crashed -22 bps to 3.49% and down -38 bps in a week. The China Govt ten year bond is down -2 bps at 2.89%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year is starting today at 4.50% and down another -9 bps from this time yesterday. A week ago it was 4.76% so a net -26 bps dump from there.

On Wall Street, the S&P500 is ending its Friday session down -1.5% in late trade heading for a -4.8% skid for the week. Overnight, European markets were lower by about -1.3%, London a bit more. Yesterday Tokyo ended its session down -1.7% to be just -0.1% lower for the week. Hong Kong fell another -3.0% to end the week down -5.5%. And Shanghai fell -1.4% yesterday to be -3.1% lower for the week. The ASX200 ended its Friday session down -2.3% to be 2.0% lower for the week, while the NZX50 got off relatively lightly, down -0.8% on the day and down -1.2% for the week.

The price of gold will open today at US$1864/oz and up +US$38 from yesterday. The gain from a week ago has been +US$17/oz.

And oil prices start today marginally softer at just under US$77/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is still just over US$82.50/bbl. These levels are a -US$2.50 drop in a week.

The Kiwi dollar is firmer again, now at 61.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are also up a little at 93 AUc. Against the euro we are a little softer at 57.8 euro cents. That leaves the TWI-5 little-changed at 70.2. A week ago it was at 70.8.

The bitcoin price has fallen hard from this time yesterday, now at US$19,917 and down -7.3%. And that is an -11% fall for the week. However, volatility over the past 24 hours has been very high at +/-4.8%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».