A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; inflation hits farmers hardest, population skewing older, border relief on the way, swaps lower again, NZD holds, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Nothing changed today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
The Cooperative Bank raised their TD rates for terms 1 year and longer. None are market-leading.

INFLATION HITS BUSINESSES MUCH HARDER THAN CONSUMERS
Producer prices rose a sharp +8.8% in the year to September, but that was down from a +9.7% rise in the year to June and 9.8% in March. So perhaps the peak has passed? However, capital goods prices rise more than +12% again, but that was due largely to construction costs. On the farm, things are very tough with input costs (other than livestock) rising more than +16% in the year to September, up from +14% in the year to June, and less than +5% in the year to September 2021. Farmers are the main sector being hit the hardest. Dairy farmers face operating cost rises over +17%. Consumer prices are 'only' up 7.2% over the same period.

SKEWING OLDER
Our population rose by a minor +12,500 in the year to September to 5,127,400. That seems to indicate that the pandemic low occurred as at March 2022 of just +500. The median age of our population is now over 38 years, the highest on record. (Twenty years ago it was under 32 year.) Twenty years ago, 66% of our population was of working age, and 11% were 65 or older. Today those proportions are 65% and 16½%. The big change is that the population under 15 is shrinking. There are now 845,000 over-65s, and 203,000 are over 80 years, about the total population of Auckland's Waitakere (204,000), or Wellington City (216,000). There are only four urban areas larger (Christchurch, and the other three Auckland quadrants.)

DEMOGRAPHIC RELIEF COMING?
The ageing pressure may about to ease however. Overseas worker numbers and international student arrivals are rising strongly again. The number of overseas workers coming to NZ could be back up to pre-pandemic levels by the beginning of next year.

2022 FUND MANAGER GONGS
Passive fund manager Smartshares has taken out the annual Research IP overall Fund Manager of the Year Award held overnight. Separate winners were announced in fifteen categories. In addition there were four Advisor Choice awards, and one Investor Choice award (to Generate Investment Management). A full list of finalists and category winners, is here.

RUSSELL JONES TAKES ON WESTPAC CIO ROLE
Westpac NZ has appointed Russell Jones, the former long-term ASB executive who also spent three years at BNZ, as its Chief Information Officer. Jones has been acting in the role since May having succeeded Andrew Henderson. His appointment is subject to Reserve Bank non-objection.

SOLID AUSSIE JOBS DATA
Australia added +32,000 jobs in October and their jobless rate dipped to 3.4% from 3.5% in September. Better yet, there were +47,000 new full time jobs, and a fall of -15,000 part-time jobs here. These better-than-expected and solid labour market results will likely mean the RBA will add another +25 bps to their official rate in early December, taking it to 3.10%. Markets have priced in slightly less than that prior to this jobs data release.

UNINSURABLE
And we should note that in the middle of the inland floods in Australia's eastern state, insurers have had enough, advising residents who live on floodplains (most of the good agricultural region) that their insurance won't be renewed.

LOG IN STILL AN ISSUE
We still have a known issue for readers logging in via Press Patron, which affects ad-free access. We are working on a fix, although don't have a resolution yet. Apologies

SWAP RATES LOWER AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates may be slightly softer today, but the real action comes near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 4.16%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.65% and down -5 bps. The China 10 year bond rate has risen to 2.85% and back up +2 bps. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.18%, and down another -5 bps and now above the RBNZ fix for the NZGB 10 year which down another sharp -6 bps at 4.13%. The UST 10 year is now at 3.73% and down another -5 bps from this time yesterday.

EQUITIES ONLY RISE IN NZ
The S&P500 ended its Wednesday trade down -0.8% and slipping back to Monday's level. Tokyo has opened down -0.2%. But Hong Kong has opened sharply lower, down -2.7%. Shanghai has opened down another -0.8%. The ASX200 little-changed in early afternoon trade. The NZX50 is up a modest +0.3% late in the Thursday session, and led by an Investore (IPL, #37) recovery, and F&P Healthcare (FPH, #1).

GOLD STAYS FIRM
In early Asian trade, gold is at US$1768/oz and down -US$7 from this time yesterday. It's been hovering at this level for basically two years now.

NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is marginally lower than this time yesterday at 61.3 USc. Against the AUD we are little-changed at 91.2 AUc. Against the euro we off slightly at 59.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 is now at 70.2 and very little-changed from this time yesterday.

BITCOIN DIPS
Bitcoin is now at US$16,650 and down -1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest also at just over +/- 1.8%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».