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Reserve Bank of Australia lifts cash rate 25 basis points as it assesses the outlook for inflation and economic growth

Bonds / news
Reserve Bank of Australia lifts cash rate 25 basis points as it assesses the outlook for inflation and economic growth
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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased its cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.60%.

Financial markets had expected the RBA to lift the cash rate by 50 basis points.

The RBA says it's committed to returning inflation to its 2% to 3% target range over time. Over the 12 months to the June 2022 quarter, Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 6.1%. The RBA says its central forecast is for CPI inflation to be around 7.75% over 2022, a little above 4% over 2023 and around 3% over 2024.

"The cash rate has been increased substantially in a short period of time. Reflecting this, the Board decided to increase the cash rate by 25 basis points this month as it assesses the outlook for inflation and economic growth in Australia," the RBA says.

"Wages growth is continuing to pick up from the low rates of recent years, although it remains lower than in other advanced economies where inflation is higher."

The RBA started increasing the cash rate from a low of just 10 basis points in May.

The Australian share market rose on the RBA news and the Aussie dollar weakened. On Wednesday the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to increase the Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points to 3.50%.

Below is the RBA's full statement.

At its meeting today, the Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 2.60 per cent. It also increased the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances by 25 basis points to 2.50 per cent.

The Board is committed to returning inflation to the 2–3 per cent range over time. Today’s increase in interest rates will help achieve this goal and further increases are likely to be required over the period ahead. The cash rate has been increased substantially in a short period of time. Reflecting this, the Board decided to increase the cash rate by 25 basis points this month as it assesses the outlook for inflation and economic growth in Australia.

As is the case in most countries, inflation in Australia is too high. Global factors explain much of this high inflation, but strong domestic demand relative to the ability of the economy to meet that demand is also playing a role.

A further increase in inflation is expected over the months ahead, before inflation then declines back towards the 2–3 per cent range. The expected moderation in inflation next year reflects the ongoing resolution of global supply-side problems, recent declines in some commodity prices and the impact of rising interest rates. Medium-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, and it is important that this remains the case. The Bank’s central forecast is for CPI inflation to be around 7¾ per cent over 2022, a little above 4 per cent over 2023 and around 3 per cent over 2024.

The Australian economy is continuing to grow solidly and national income is being boosted by a record level of the terms of trade. The labour market is very tight and many firms are having difficulty hiring workers. The unemployment rate in August was 3.5 per cent, around the lowest rate in almost 50 years. Job vacancies and job ads are both at very high levels, suggesting a further decline in the unemployment rate over the months ahead. Beyond that, some increase in the unemployment rate is expected as economic growth slows.

Wages growth is continuing to pick up from the low rates of recent years, although it remains lower than in other advanced economies where inflation is higher. Given the tight labour market and the upstream price pressures, the Board will continue to pay close attention to both the evolution of labour costs and the price-setting behaviour of firms in the period ahead.

Price stability is a prerequisite for a strong economy and a sustained period of full employment. Given this, the Board’s priority is to return inflation to the 2–3 per cent range over time. It is seeking to do this while keeping the economy on an even keel. The path to achieving this balance is a narrow one and it is clouded in uncertainty.

One source of uncertainty is the outlook for the global economy, which has deteriorated recently. Another is how household spending in Australia responds to the tighter financial conditions. Higher inflation and higher interest rates are putting pressure on household budgets, with the full effects of higher interest rates yet to be felt in mortgage payments. Consumer confidence has also fallen and housing prices are declining after the earlier large increases. Working in the other direction, people are finding jobs, gaining more hours of work and receiving higher wages. Many households have also built up large financial buffers and the saving rate still remains higher than it was before the pandemic.

Today’s further increase in interest rates will help achieve a more sustainable balance of demand and supply in the Australian economy. This is necessary to bring inflation back down. The Board expects to increase interest rates further over the period ahead. It is closely monitoring the global economy, household spending and wage and price-setting behaviour. The size and timing of future interest rate increases will continue to be determined by the incoming data and the Board’s assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labour market. The Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that.

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42 Comments

So their official cash rate is only at 2.6%, it seems the AUD could take a dive...

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6

Slipping back 0.4% on the US cross. Falling coal and iron ore prices would put pressure on AUD. 

There is the bubble to consider as well. While they don't (and can't) say explicitly, I suspect that this is an important determinant. Also, recent events in the UK and U.S. probably make them more circumspect. 

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2

I am sure all the central banks share Intell, not that you need it to know many economies are in trouble and inflation is likely to come off the boil big time.

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4

No.  Inflation is like a rat infestation. Nothing good ever comes from going easy.

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20

Yawn

most, including you, are blind to the demand destruction and associated inflation quelling on its way…

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4

No we are not. We know what is needed to get the job done. Grow up micey boy.

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19

Its very hard to brake an 18 wheeler on ice

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2

Hopefully it does, It may give the RBNZ something more to think about before their turn.

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2

Hopefully it does, It may give the RBNZ something more to think about before their turn.

Kaumatua Orr is on a different spiritual level than most central bankers. The Gods will guide him. 

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17

The Bank of England's dramas have probably given the RBA some cover to be dovish.

Though, we'll have to wait-and-see how the AUD story plays out.

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5

AUD already trading down 0.8%, it's going to get hammered.

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3

It would all be a bit of a chuckle if it wasn't so worrying.

A rise of an additional 0.25% to levels that are still historically low has terrified the RBA to the extent it has to scale back normalisation. Mind you, the BoE/Truss Government probably didn't help.

This isn't good. Not by a long shot. It just confirms what a mess we are all in.

If The Fed holds its course, then what does the RBA do? And if it, too, doesn't.....then all credibility is forfeit.

 

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14

Agreed. This is some real "rock and a hard place" territory now. Surely something has to give eventually? 

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3

RBA is actually the RBP - 'Reserve Bank of Property'.

"We needed to look like we were doing something about inflation. But it's not exactly a priority. There are families in the Eastern Suburbs of Sydney struggling to pay the mortgage and the high fuel bills of owning a high-powered top of the line European luxury SUV."

https://twitter.com/RBASHAGGER/status/1577143855211692032?s=20&t=SKSO7v…

(caution: parody comment and twitter account)

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22

"We needed to look like we were doing something about inflation. But it's not exactly a priority. There are families in the Eastern Suburbs of Sydney struggling to pay the mortgage and the high fuel bills of owning a high-powered top of the line European luxury SUV."

Parody with a healthy dose of reality 

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9

Yes I have a good laugh when I read the tweets on that account. There is a certain amount of truth to them (unfortunately!)

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1

"Labour as a limiting factor is still at 1970s levels. The CUBO measure of capacity utilisation remained high, and in fact ticked up slightly to 94.5% in Q3. That’s off the recent record high of around 97, but still too high (and sticky) to provide the RBNZ much comfort. Conversely, capacity as a constraint fell 4 points to 9%, but that’s more to do with labour shortages becoming even more of a concern for many firms. The biggest constraint on firms expanding their production continues to be labour, lifting to a new record high of 43. It’s that 70’s show out there folks, and not in a cool Jimi Hendrix kind of way. The RBNZ should be worried about the wage-price spiral implications of these data, which are still looking more developed than previously thought"

https://twitter.com/sharon_zollner/status/1577052544383471617?s=20&t=Ff…

(Zollner ANZ)

Apologies - this was intended for the daily wrap up and not this thread as its NZ economic data....but will leave for anyone interested. 

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5

Capacity and other valid measures. However, Ocam's Razor .

HT_ Macrobusiness. This afternoon..

'There are many other guides to the extreme overvaluation of Australian property. The ratio of household debt (overwhelmingly mortgages) to disposable income is the highest in the world at 186%. Median price to income multiples are anything from 12x in Sydney, to 10x in Melbourne, down to still immensely unaffordable 6x in smaller capitals, up from 3-4x times in all over the long run for all. The extent of overvaluation is plain.

What makes the Australian property bubble unique is the degree to which it has warped the nation’s political economy.'

 

 

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3

Only CB,  ever, that has been captured by the FIRE.

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2

First bank to respond to the UN's call to HALT interest rate increases... 

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-n-calls-on-fed-other-central-banks-to-ha…

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2

Never mind war, famine, or political persecution, the real affront to human rights and dignity is the potential loss of cheap credit. 

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21

I went looking for the source of that, and ended up in a WSJ spam_junk_news loop.

So I searched and searched, even tried here, https://www.un.org/en/site-search?query=interest+rates, and found nothing,I

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1

We must have growth at any cost!

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0

Pussycats! RBA not what it used to be.

 

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2

Reason and excuse for Mr Orr to follow RBA.

 

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2

Except it won't, 0.50% raise tomorrow.

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6

Core inflation vs Central bank interest rate

Australia: 6.2% - 2.6%

Canada: 5.8% - 3.25% (tipped to hit 3.75% before the RBA meets again)

New Zealand: 6.2% - 3.0% (expected to hit 3.5% tomorrow)

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4

This move coupled with the earlier NZIER report, saying inflation is on the wane could easily justify a wait and see approach by rbnz. I'm giving a 50/50 chance of 50 points 

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3

And the other 50%? Higher or lower?

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0

Have a guess... you have 50 percent chance of getting the cheese

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6

Careful HM, it's a trap

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4

Mousetrap 😄

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3

Inflation is definitely not on the wane. 
this is what I’m experiencing in the Manawatu in the last month or so. 
Wheelie Bin Renewel up from $420 to $484 for the year

electrician same company October 2021 $60hr last week $85hr plus gst of course

family cell phone plan gone from $100 to $130 a month and was actually a downgrade. 
broad band went from $60 to $78 but was able to a switch companies and get $65 a month n

Rates increase not to bad this year only about 7%

Grocery prices are still going through the roof. Ploughman s bread had gone up in bits over the year from $3.20 a loaf to $4.20 over the last year. 
Yoghurt went from 3.99 a tub to 4.49 a month  ago. 
cat food of all things has almost doubled in price over the last couple of months. 
eating put is getting expensive ton fish and chips has gone from about $30 a family meal to almost $50. I have also notice McDonald’s has really ramped up there prices too putting them up on an almost weekly basis and removing the free drinks machine from all there stores.

the only thing that has actually dropped is petrol, but that can go up just as fast as it has got me down.

my wages haven’t moved. 

so inflation is still rampant so the middle and lower class. If the next CPI comes in lower it will just prove that it’s an absolutely BS fake figure designed to hide the truth. 
 

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12

So no dreaded wage price spiral. So what’s the point of increasing interest rates?

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0

Australia has a lot of resources and is a much bigger economy and they are probably not worried about inflation. They want inflation so they can charge more to sell their resources. So it makes sense for their Central Bank to play it safe and make more money for the country with high inflation. 

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2

Got to keep the aussie housing ponzie going aye Brock...✈️🏡📈🇦🇺

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8

This will mean their correction will take longer, Orr has already said he is going hard so higher rates wont last for so long. Odd bunch this RBA.

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3

I see it differently. I see us at the lip of an inverse Bell Curve.

You get a Misky Bar, and you get a Minsky Bar, and you, and you and you.

One child bought a few years ago in Mid Central Akl, they will be ok, the other is in Japan , why would he come home?

There are few winners in creative destruction, and it pains me to say it, but I hope the whole rotten house burns down,

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2

Is this the RBA's underarm & sandpaper moment?

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6

RBNZ ought to look closely and limit itself to 0.25 as well - take stock of all the mortgages currently rolling onto new rates and those to come.   Very sensible approach by the RBA in my view.

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2

Delayed effect will be overdone

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2

I think RBA have got this wrong at a time when "Aussie building consents raced higher in August on the back of a strong recovery in consents". Food inflation continues +5% last month in europe. OIl back up 7% last 2 days as OPEC signals production cuts (they want $90 +) Will be watching Oz inflation versus ours in 6 months time.

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0