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Nick Smyth
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US Services PMI slumps further into contractionary territory, raising the market's recession concerns. Markets brush off hawkish Fed speak, but not ECB
19th Dec 22, 7:22am
US Services PMI slumps further into contractionary territory, raising the market's recession concerns. Markets brush off hawkish Fed speak, but not ECB
Higher-than-expected US PPI release gets market nerves running ahead of crucial CPI data tomorrow night. Global rates rebound strongly and equity markets fall
12th Dec 22, 7:43am
Higher-than-expected US PPI release gets market nerves running ahead of crucial CPI data tomorrow night. Global rates rebound strongly and equity markets fall
Bond yields and equities rebound modestly overnight, USD weaker. NZ curve flattening continues - 2y10y swap curve approaching record levels of inversion
9th Dec 22, 7:54am
Bond yields and equities rebound modestly overnight, USD weaker. NZ curve flattening continues - 2y10y swap curve approaching record levels of inversion
US nonfarm payrolls stronger than expected. Initial hawkish market reaction quickly faded. NZ rates sharply lower on Friday as market starts to question RBNZ's 5.5% terminal rate projection
5th Dec 22, 7:29am
US nonfarm payrolls stronger than expected. Initial hawkish market reaction quickly faded. NZ rates sharply lower on Friday as market starts to question RBNZ's 5.5% terminal rate projection
US rates higher ahead of Powell, equities slightly lower. Optimism around an eventual end to the China zero-Covid policy continues to grow
1st Dec 22, 7:31am
US rates higher ahead of Powell, equities slightly lower. Optimism around an eventual end to the China zero-Covid policy continues to grow
Chinese assets rally as the authorities take steps to increase vaccination rates among the elderly, seen as another step towards eventually ending the zero-Covid policy. CNH appreciates more than 1%, Hang Seng surges 5%
30th Nov 22, 7:46am
Chinese assets rally as the authorities take steps to increase vaccination rates among the elderly, seen as another step towards eventually ending the zero-Covid policy. CNH appreciates more than 1%, Hang Seng surges 5%
Markets trade with a risk-off tone after the weekend anti-government protests in China. Market reaction relatively contained so far - police deter further protests and markets sense the inevitable end to the zero-Covid policy next year
29th Nov 22, 7:54am
Markets trade with a risk-off tone after the weekend anti-government protests in China. Market reaction relatively contained so far - police deter further protests and markets sense the inevitable end to the zero-Covid policy next year
Market moves subdued after the US Thanksgiving holiday. Markets unperturbed so far by news of rising Covid cases in China and further piecemeal restrictions by the authorities
28th Nov 22, 7:40am
Market moves subdued after the US Thanksgiving holiday. Markets unperturbed so far by news of rising Covid cases in China and further piecemeal restrictions by the authorities
China growth concerns resurface. Bond market curve flattening trend continues. Market prices 70% chance of a +75bps RBNZ hike tomorrow
22nd Nov 22, 7:50am
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China growth concerns resurface. Bond market curve flattening trend continues. Market prices 70% chance of a +75bps RBNZ hike tomorrow
Currencies little changed, consolidating after their recent big moves. UST 10-year rate continues to grind lower and 2y10y yield curve reaches its most inverted level since early 1980s, warning of recession next year
17th Nov 22, 7:59am
Currencies little changed, consolidating after their recent big moves. UST 10-year rate continues to grind lower and 2y10y yield curve reaches its most inverted level since early 1980s, warning of recession next year
Markets continue to digest US CPI downside surprise. Equities rally hard, USD weakens further, commodities surge. Big falls in NZ rates as markets price the November RBNZ meeting as a 50-50 bet on a 50bps hike and a 75bps move
14th Nov 22, 7:40am
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Markets continue to digest US CPI downside surprise. Equities rally hard, USD weakens further, commodities surge. Big falls in NZ rates as markets price the November RBNZ meeting as a 50-50 bet on a 50bps hike and a 75bps move
Investors waiting on US midterm election results and US CPI later this week. Global rates lower overnight while equities continue to recover
9th Nov 22, 7:40am
Investors waiting on US midterm election results and US CPI later this week. Global rates lower overnight while equities continue to recover
Optimism around Chinese reopening likely to be short lived, with government officials doubling down on zero-Covid over the weekend. Market pares back Fed rate hike expectations, USD falls sharply
7th Nov 22, 7:22am
Optimism around Chinese reopening likely to be short lived, with government officials doubling down on zero-Covid over the weekend. Market pares back Fed rate hike expectations, USD falls sharply
US Fed's higher-for-longer messaging continues to sink in for markets. US rates push higher, USD stronger across the board, equities weaken further. NZGBs finally find some support at yesterday's bond tender
4th Nov 22, 7:59am
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US Fed's higher-for-longer messaging continues to sink in for markets. US rates push higher, USD stronger across the board, equities weaken further. NZGBs finally find some support at yesterday's bond tender
Equity markets rally strongly on Friday. Big upside surprise to German CPI sees European rates rise and push up UST 10yr. Significant offshore NZGB buying today and some buying of the NZD likely
31st Oct 22, 7:48am
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Equity markets rally strongly on Friday. Big upside surprise to German CPI sees European rates rise and push up UST 10yr. Significant offshore NZGB buying today and some buying of the NZD likely
ECB raises rates by 75bps. Lower European rates spill over to other bond markets - US 10y back below 4%. NZD outperforms. Big falls in NZ bond rates as market gears up for WGBI bond index inclusion for NZGBs on 1 November
28th Oct 22, 8:07am
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ECB raises rates by 75bps. Lower European rates spill over to other bond markets - US 10y back below 4%. NZD outperforms. Big falls in NZ bond rates as market gears up for WGBI bond index inclusion for NZGBs on 1 November
Global rates continue to push relentlessly higher - US 10-year breaks above 4.20%. USD/JPY breaks above 150 for the first time since 1990 - market wary of further FX intervention from Japanese authorities
21st Oct 22, 8:03am
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Global rates continue to push relentlessly higher - US 10-year breaks above 4.20%. USD/JPY breaks above 150 for the first time since 1990 - market wary of further FX intervention from Japanese authorities
Volatility remains extremely high, with markets continuing to digest US CPI surprise and UK political saga. USD strengthens sharply amidst rising risk aversion, higher US rates
17th Oct 22, 7:33am
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Volatility remains extremely high, with markets continuing to digest US CPI surprise and UK political saga. USD strengthens sharply amidst rising risk aversion, higher US rates
Stronger ISM Services index drives a big lift in global rates and the USD. US 10-year back above 3.75%, EUR back below 0.99. OPEC+ announced 2m barrels per day reduction to oil supply quotas
6th Oct 22, 7:56am
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Stronger ISM Services index drives a big lift in global rates and the USD. US 10-year back above 3.75%, EUR back below 0.99. OPEC+ announced 2m barrels per day reduction to oil supply quotas
Equity markets rally strongly for the second day running. RBA hikes rates by only 25bps, sparking big fall in Aussie rates and underperformance in the AUD. USD significantly weaker amidst recovery in risk appetite
5th Oct 22, 7:51am
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Equity markets rally strongly for the second day running. RBA hikes rates by only 25bps, sparking big fall in Aussie rates and underperformance in the AUD. USD significantly weaker amidst recovery in risk appetite
ISM manufacturing survey surprises on the downside, UK govt. decides to retain top tax rate, driving big falls in global rates. Commodity currencies recover strongly
4th Oct 22, 7:46am
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ISM manufacturing survey surprises on the downside, UK govt. decides to retain top tax rate, driving big falls in global rates. Commodity currencies recover strongly
European headline inflation hits 10%, US core PCE inflation surprises on the upside as well. US rates higher on Friday, capping off a big monthly move. OPEC+ now meeting in person this week, suggesting a big oil production cut is likely planned
3rd Oct 22, 8:05am
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European headline inflation hits 10%, US core PCE inflation surprises on the upside as well. US rates higher on Friday, capping off a big monthly move. OPEC+ now meeting in person this week, suggesting a big oil production cut is likely planned
Equity markets fall heavily. Global rates higher overnight, although modest moves in the context of recent volatility. Fed and ECB officials continue to beat the hawkish drum
30th Sep 22, 8:01am
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Equity markets fall heavily. Global rates higher overnight, although modest moves in the context of recent volatility. Fed and ECB officials continue to beat the hawkish drum
UK announces big fiscal loosening on Friday night, prompting huge sell-off, reverberating in other markets. Broad-based USD strength sees EUR, NZD and Yen all fall. Markets brace for inevitable economic crunch
27th Sep 22, 8:01am
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UK announces big fiscal loosening on Friday night, prompting huge sell-off, reverberating in other markets. Broad-based USD strength sees EUR, NZD and Yen all fall. Markets brace for inevitable economic crunch
Equity markets weaker again on gloomy global growth expectations. Lower US inflation expectations data help calm the bond market. Big move higher in NZ rates on Friday
19th Sep 22, 7:52am
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Equity markets weaker again on gloomy global growth expectations. Lower US inflation expectations data help calm the bond market. Big move higher in NZ rates on Friday