DAIRY
Soil moisture levels as May is reached are very low, and any rain from now on will come with colder temperatures and opportunities for reduced opportunities for growth.
Many of the inland ponds are low or dry and the ducks will be dispersed far and wide looking for water to settle, as the first week in May arrives.
NIWA states in its 3 month climate forecast that May until July will have increased temperatures, normal winter rains, and see soil mousture levels recover to near normal ranges.
However many in the dry areas believe normal weather patterns will not be enough to recover the extremely dry situation to normal, and are apprehensive about growing conditions this spring.
Facial ecema outbreaks in northern regions have been described as the worst seen for years especially those provinces now getting dry, and vets warn that the affects of this disease are often sub clinical, revealing itself later, in lower production levels or in times of stress at calving.
Paddocks of low producing light cows are arriving on thin dryland pastures with straw as the winter grazing period starts, but properties with irrigation look a picture and show the value of water during these dry times.
Careful planning will be needed to ensure cows are well fed to achieve their BCS targets at calving, but not over allocated so costs can be held, but many graziers are holding out for returns of 20c/kg dm, minimum.
Some hard decisions will also need to be made on how much is spent on preventative mastitis control, as short term savings may be costly in next year’s production if the infection returns.
Officials have now reported velvet leaf has been found in a North Island maize crop, as any hope of containing this weed to a single season outbreak, has all but disappeared.
In the auction overnight, more evidence that values are just bumping along the bottom with an overall fall of 1.4% for the mix of milk commodities, but another small lift for the big volume product whole milk powder, is pleasing.
Fonterra announces that milk collection for the first 10 months is 3% down on last year, but the Lincoln University Dairy Farm has produced a pleasing result with increased production and lower costs.
Globally there are less signs that present pricing levels are influencing milk flows, with latest figures from the US showing a 1.8% growth and cows producing at their highest per head levels since 2003.
A similar situation is happening in Europe and while the increase in production is slowing, it appears surplus supply will still influence the coming season negatively.
After promising optimistic milk forecasts, Australian dairy giant Murray Goulburn has had to eat humble pie and slash downwards to where others now sit, and two directors and the CEO have resigned and share values have been downgraded as a result of these poor predictions.
21 dairy farms sold in the month of March in a trend of understandably lower values, but more recievership sales are being drip fed onto the market as the banks carefully manage this downturn.
Out of the gloom the industry continues to reveal positive examples of managers skills of reducing costs down to levels relative to the payout, others using this as an opportunity to improve their genetic value of their herd, and determination to survive this downturn and learn it's lessons to be more profitable in the future.
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13 Comments
Good to see the mention of FE. Have heard of a couple of dairy herds in the dryer areas that have 90%+ of cows affected with FE. The implications on next seasons production of any wide spread infection rates may not be understood by those outside the industry. It has the potential to be significant.
Aj I understand the infection rates are pretty ugly for both dairy and non dairy. Just what farmers across the sectors don't need. Hope you were able to make good feed supplies earlier. Down south we had an ugly spring but are having a cracka autumn. Feel for those of you going in to winter still dry now.
Ah, but the season usually evens itself out - winter just may be 2/3months later. ;-) Was on farm recently - 23deg in late March is unusual, but doesn't give us the problems it does up your way where it is dry. I heard some farmers recently say they may continue milking in to June as they cows are still milking well. But that could change if we get our usual May flurry of snow.
We've lost two calves with FE. Spread grazed and they drew the short straw their paddock must have been toxic. Couple of other Calves showing light signs and a few cows, we dreid off on the 20th.
It's the first time in twenty odd seasons dairying that I've lost an animal with FE. Hopefully that's it despite the warm weather as we've no more zinc.
the fake forecasting from MG is still ringing
A group of dairy farmers is preparing for "war" after Murray Goulburn and Fonterra slashed the prices paid for raw milk. The group, which calls itself Farmer Power, is calling on federal Agriculture Minister Barnaby Joyce to "urgently intervene to establish a totally independent review" of Australia's dairy industry.
Group president Chris Gleeson said the cuts to the farm-gate price threatened to push farmers off the land, cull herds for meat, or switch completely to beef farming. "Saleyard figures indicate a real risk that herd numbers are already being reduced, and that without immediate action the industry will continue its downward spiral," Mr Gleeson said.
Murray Goulburn reduced its farm-gate price from an average of $5.60 to $4.75-$5 last month after it said it would struggle to meet even half of the profit forecast outlined in its prospectus for its partial float on the ASX less than a year ago. The downgrade stemmed from the co-operative's management over-estimating Chinese sales of adult milk powder, which led to the resignations of managing director Gary Helou, chief financial officer Brad Hingle and two board directors last week.
Fonterra, which is obliged to meet Murray Goulburn's prices under its supply agreement, followed, cutting its price from an average of $5.60 to $5.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/dairy-farmers-go-to-war-on-murray-goulbu…
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook
Murray Goulburn's chairman, Philip Tracy, claims the co-operative's board and management were vigilant at all times, despite it posting a monstrous profit downgrade and slashing milk payments to farmers.
Murray Goulburn's managing director, Gary Helou, resigned this week after he massively overestimated sales figures, sparking anger from farmers.
The co-operative, Australia's biggest milk processor, will now struggle to meet half of its net profit forecast outlined in the prospectus for its partial float on the ASX less than a year ago.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/murray-goulburn-board-vigilant-at-all-ti…
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How bad is bad. Bad. The joint is fractured.
A third director has quit the board of Murray Goulburn in the wake of the dairy co-operative's big profit downgrade and its cut to the price it pays farmers for their milk.
Murray Goulburn on Tuesday said supplier/director Duncan Morris had resigned, effective immediately.
http://m.smh.com.au/business/murray-goulburn-director-duncan-morris-res…
See the games played a little differently there.
http://i.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/dairy/79830421/Australian-dairy-f…
She said as soon as Murray Goulbourn suppliers heard about their price cut, some quickly moved to other, better paying processors, and now there was no space left.
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