David Norton on the upcoming limits to widespread conversion of productive farmland into exotic plantations while still allowing for sustainable afforestation that maintains biodiversity

The Government’s recent announcement on changes to the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) represents a significant shift in how farmland can be converted to exotic forestry. These changes, set to take effect in October 2025, aim to curb the widespread conversion of productive farmland into exotic plantations while still allowing for sustainable afforestation.

The policy introduces a moratorium on registering exotic forest in the ETS on land use capability (LUC) class 1 to 5 farmland, effectively preventing high-quality farming land from being swallowed up by forestry interests looking to cash in on carbon credits. Additionally, the policy sets a national limit of 15,000 hectares per year for the registration of exotic forest on LUC class 6 farmland, ensuring that medium-versatility land is not disproportionately lost to afforestation.

There are exemptions within the policy to allow for continued, measured investment in forestry. Farmers can still convert portions of their land to forest and register it in the ETS, and those who had already taken steps towards afforestation before the December 2024 announcement can proceed, provided they can show evidence such as a land purchase agreement or seedling order. Certain Māori land holdings are also exempt, recognising their unique status and historical context. Importantly, there are no restrictions on the registration of native forests, which is a positive step towards encouraging indigenous afforestation.

While some might argue that these regulations place undue restrictions on landowners looking to diversify their income streams, the long-term implications of unchecked afforestation are undeniable. The past decade has seen growing concern over the loss of productive farmland to exotic forestry, a trend that not only impacts food production but also has serious implications for biodiversity and rural communities. Blanket pine plantations provide little in terms of ecological diversity, and their dominance risks undermining the health of New Zealand’s landscapes.

Professor David Norton, an expert in biodiversity and sustainable land use, has long been an advocate for balancing afforestation with the needs of farming and conservation. Much of his work has informed these latest ETS changes, and his perspective on biodiversity payments offers an alternative model for landowners looking to contribute positively to climate goals without resorting to monocultural forestry. His insights into the role of native vegetation and the importance of maintaining biodiversity alongside productive farming are critical as we navigate the future of land management in New Zealand.

The challenge ahead is ensuring that these regulations strike the right balance between climate action and economic sustainability. Farmers need viable alternatives that make conservation financially sustainable, and biodiversity payments could provide a solution. Encouraging the planting of native species rather than exotic forests not only enhances biodiversity but also contributes to long-term carbon sequestration in a way that supports, rather than replaces, farming communities.

As these policy changes come into effect, it will be crucial to monitor their impact and ensure that they deliver the intended environmental and economic benefits. For now, the move to limit exotic afforestation on high-quality farmland is a step in the right direction, but it must be accompanied by policies that actively support sustainable land use. Professor Norton’s research provides valuable insights into what this could look like, and his perspectives on biodiversity incentives are well worth considering as New Zealand shapes its environmental policies for the future. Have a listen to his thoughts above.

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Angus Kebbell is the Producer at Tailwind Media. You can contact him here.