Guy Trafford assesses what we have (and haven't) learned from major natural threats. He is hoping we actually get major adaption projects done following the series of crises

When Cyclone Bola went through the East Coast the feeling at the time was that this was a once in a lifetime event and ’we’ wouldn’t see anything like it again. The events of the last week or so have put paid to that, if Cyclone Hale the previous month didn’t.

An observation though (from afar) whereas the rainfall in Bola in the back of the Gisborne region was 900-100mls over the 48 hour period. This event was nearer half that.

Given the damage from Cyclone Gabrielle has matched or exceeded Bola I’m wondering what is different.

One thought is that it has occurred closer to the coast, thereby having a greater impact there? Although the Hikuwai River at the 5 bridges (SH35 between Tolaga Bay and Tokomaru Bay) was clearly higher than in Bola and that was water largely coming from the back country (I haven’t seen Waipoa River details yet).

Was it the forestry slash continuing to impact? The HMNZS Manawanui couldn’t unload aid at Tolaga Bay wharf due to the amount of forestry slash in the bay and visuals on television in many areas show large amounts on river banks against bridges and elsewhere. The question now comes to what lessons come from this (some we seem to have forgotten from Bola et al).

Living near a main centre while the lack of communication is a frustration it is not a life and death issue (mostly, will come to this later). When I lived in the Gisborne hinterland and from memory in the Manawatu ‘we’ had Civil Defence points dotted along the main highways. As were First Aid points. These were at mostly farm houses where some basic supplies were kept for emergencies and access to a land line phone. It appears these seem to have been done away with (I haven’t had to venture too far off the main highway of late so could be wrong).

If I am correct these obviously need to be reinstated and upgraded.

Given current technology there is no excuse for at least some emergency power to be available to run satellite communications. Between solar power and a small generator, satellite technology (at a price) is available to all now.

For these CD centres this should be standard issue and available to the local community in times such as these, funded from central and/or local government. The fact that whole areas had zero means to communicate with the outside world seems almost laughable if it wasn’t so tragic. An aside here which also I think our recent fire highlighted, Messenger an internet based ‘phone’ system which doesn’t rely on cell towers does not appear to be used by the emergency services. Hopefully something else to be rectified.

Without a communication network nothing else can occur in a rational manner and help will be ad hoc and not hitting the right areas.

Some of these processes will not even cost much to setup. Both national and regional government once they have the population safe now have to turn their heads to what the next steps are.

As a nation we have been heavily focused on climate change mitigation. It is now too late for any short term gains so the focus now is adaption, or as I heard one say, “managed retreat”. The mood seems to be that this is something that needs to take place slowly and carefully due to its complexity. Unfortunately, for those living in both remote and not so remote, pondering on the question would come as cold comfort. Three major events in the last twelve months means that action is going to have to happen fast. One thing the Labour government has shown is that it can make hard and fast decisions around critical occurrences. The Christchurch earthquakes, which were led by both National and Labour, also provide somewhat of a blueprint which can be utilised.

The response to climate events will be more complicated due to the widespread nature of its impacts and multifaceted nature. I do wonder if the last few weeks maybe months has put much of the criticism around 3 Waters to bed. Labour certainly can be criticised for how the process was rolled out but the need for more centralised planning and funding has become obvious. Unfortunately, this now extends beyond water to roading, communications and maybe health with a decent dollop of the RMA included in there.

I was certainly among those, who unconsciously, were vaguely conceited about the climate change impacts upon New Zealand. We seemed to be escaping the worse effects seen around the globe and in some areas might even benefit from it. However, when seeing how badly damaged even Hawkes Bay has been (taking nothing away from Northland, Coromandel and Tairawhiti but we already knew they were vulnerable and of course the Auckland urban and rural areas also were heavily impacted) then nowhere is safe.

Christchurch which has had a charmed run since the 2010-11 earthquakes is bounded by the (large) Waimakariri River on one side and the Selwyn and Rakaia rivers are not too far away on the other plus the Avon and Heathcote River, while short run rivers, can also rise appreciably through the middle of the city. No doubt almost every other town and city has a similar scenario where there has been extensive works put in over the years but now, we are having to reassess.

If the previous year's weather events hadn’t forced a major focus on future planning by government, then surely Cyclone Gabrielle has.

The short runup to the next elections may further muddy the waters unless some bi-partisan discussions can take place. If the politicians go ‘political’ and try to ring fence their own party’s policies then I can see a good reason to call for an early election. This will allow whoever is in power to have a three-year term ahead to plan without the distractions of a dragged-out election. This tends to be not the New Zealand way and hopefully avoided, but we seem to be going into extraordinary times. What ever happens there needs to be some longer term planning around both the funding and creation of critical infrastructure, and it needs to be occurring now.