With the local body elections done and dusted the new councils now need to begin their work. Much has been said through the media about the swing to the right, not that there is a great deal of difference in most cases as the swing is generally only a couple of degrees either side of centre.
The biggest news, in my view, and most concerning aspect of the elections is the lack of engagement by the public in the process.
Many have said that future elections need to be conducted online as though that will be a panacea for the low turn-out. No doubt it will improve things as the mail system certainly didn’t do any favours to the process. For example, we took our votes on a 25 km journey to ensure they got to the right place, as with a 3 day a week collection there was going to be a high chance they would have missed the deadline.
So, with an overall turnout of 36% giving, let’s say, 20% of the electorate voting for the winning candidates it is a distinctly underwhelming mandate for anybody.
It is the system we have accepted and so we need to go with the result but something definitely need to change. I do wonder how many of those who were out on the streets over the last year protesting against one thing or another did not bother turning up to vote. Obviously, we will never now as when television interviewers have gone out onto the street asking for opinions about future expectations with the results, almost without fail everyone seems to have one and give the impression they have engaged with the process. We know the majority didn’t, especially Auckland with a sad 31% turnout.
What can be done to improve the situation is beyond me and I’m not aware of any country which has solved this problem and at a time when it should be easier that ever before.
Perhaps interestingly has been the observation that the rural turnout has had a greater fall than the urban. Larger cities urban-only dropped by -1.4% admittedly from a pretty low base while the rural turnout dropped by -7.5%. Even provincial centres fell by -6.5%. All this occurring when seemingly more people are up in arms about one thing or another.
The decreasing trend is occurring throughout the democratic world both in local and national elections and it can’t be because ‘we’ are getting more comfortable and satisfied with our lot, because the evidence is the reverse. If the trend continues into the national elections, which is likely, then Labour should have even more reason to be concerned about returning as the older and generally more affluent side of the electorate turn out at a greater rate and also generally vote more right of centre. Churchill (and others) has the quote “anyone who is Liberal (left) at 20 has no heart, while anyone who is still Liberal at 40 has no head”. Nothing is ever so black and white, but it does seem to ring true which made the last national election result all the more surprising.
For the rural sector the Regional Councils arguably have a greater impact than the ‘normal’ council elections. Having had a look through the Environment Canterbury results, the largest region and often the precursor of change through the country, especially when it involves water there has been a minor revolution.
By my assessment 50% of the incoming councillors are new and most of these have occurred in the urban wards of Christchurch. Of 8 Christchurch councillors 6 are new and judging by the limited information provided most are pro-water (if such a division could be applied and I apologise for using a crude definition). In contrast, the 3 rural wards have kept to a more business as usual make-up with only one of the 6 councillors being new.
Also, of note in the rural wards those candidates that were overtly pro-water generally failed to get in. Probably not a surprising result but one that may reinforce an urban rural divide. What this will do to the pace of change for Canterbury is yet to play out, however, it does appear that there is a shift to a more ‘pro-water’ body and certainly will not slow it down. So while the ‘normal’ vote appears to have gone a few degrees to the right, the environmental vote (Regional Councils) judging by Canterbury has not and has gone the other direction if we assume the pro-water side is more left of centre.
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