Keeping the lights on

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Gavin Evans, Andreas Heuser & John Carnegie discuss energy sector issues and challenges with Eric Frykberg in our latest Of Interest podcast

12th Aug 23, 9:40am by Eric Frykberg

As New Zealand survives another tight electricity supply situation, the 12th so far this year, interest.co.nz's latest Of Interest podcast episode looks at where the country's energy supply and demand is at, the challenges facing the sector, and where it might all be heading.

To discuss this, and other wide ranging issues across the energy sector, Eric Frykberg is joined by Gavin Evans, the Editor of Energy News, Andreas Heuser, the Managing Director of consultancy Castalia, and John Carnegie, Energy Resources Aotearoa's CEO.

*You can find all episodes of the Of Interest podcast here.

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40 Comments

by Mofo Fomo | 12th Aug 23, 10:03am 1691791396

Only 10% of France's energy supply is fossil fuel.

Their economy and productivity reflects this.

Go Nuclear power.

by lastlegs | 12th Aug 23, 11:04am 1691795059

electricity isnt any cheaper in France but yes,should only cost 50 or 60 billion dollars,plus import the staff to operate it,disposal of the waste.

by profile | 12th Aug 23, 2:23pm 1691807025

Lastlegs - learn about nuclear waste.

“Fundamentally, in light-water reactors, out of the uranium we dig out of the ground, we use a half a percent of the energy that’s in the uranium that’s dug out of the ground,” Gehin told CNBC in a phone interview. “You can get a large fraction of that energy if you were to recycle the fuel through fast reactors.”

The technology for fast nuclear reactors has exited for more than fifty years. A fast reactor plant called the Experimental Breeder Reactor-II (EBR-II), began construction in 1958 and operated from 1964 to 1994, until Congress shut down funding.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/02/nuclear-waste-us-could-power-the-us-for…

"The best part: when the fuel rods are done in the reactor, over 90% of the potential energy from the uranium is still left in them! That means we can recycle the spent fuel and turn it into new fuel, which is already routinely done in Europe, Russia, and Japan.

In summary, nuclear waste: - is solid (not glowing green goo) - is tiny compared to the waste from all other energy technologies - is easily contained - has a perfect safety record"

https://twitter.com/MadiHilly/status/1550148385931513856

by lastlegs | 12th Aug 23, 5:04pm 1691816689

and yet if we ask google"what is the drawback with light water reactors?" we get a different story,maybe borrowing 50 billion to buy one would be a worse mistake than the marsden B disaster.

by profile | 13th Aug 23, 9:09am 1691874545

Why would you build a light water reactor today? There is much better tech out there. People who get their ideas about nuclear from The Simpsons are not helping.

"The first of two units at China’s much-watched high-temperature gas-cooled modular pebble bed (HTR-PM) demonstration project was successfully connected to the grid on Dec. 20. The achievement marks a major milestone for fourth-generation advanced nuclear technology.

...In addition, unlike light water reactors and heavy water reactors that use water and heavy water as moderators—materials that help slow down the speed of neutron movement and sustain a fission reaction—HTGRs use graphite as the moderator, mainly for its good high-temperature resistance.

Tsinghua expects the HTR-PM’s high heat production will be beneficial on multiple levels. “At present, about 40% of the world’s energy is utilized in the form of electricity, and the rest are non-electrical applications, including industrial heat, residential heat, and transportation energy utilized in various forms. There is a great demand for high-temperature process heat in various industries,” it noted. “The helium outlet temperature of the Shidaowan HTR-PM demonstration can reach 750C, producing superheated steam of 566C. In addition to high-efficiency power generation, high-temperature steam can also be used for cogeneration, thermal recovery of heavy oil, chemical industry, metallurgy, and so on,” it said. If development further boosts temperatures to 950C, as tests at the HTR-10 suggest, the technology’s heat may also be used for large-scale hydrogen production, providing more wide-ranging decarbonization solutions, it said."

by powerupkiwi | 12th Aug 23, 1:59pm 1691805551

Nuclear is not mentioned once in the Climate Commission’s several hundred page draft report.

by wingman | 13th Aug 23, 8:42am 1691872963

It's because NZers are Luddites. The nuclear ship ban's a classic example of kiwi technological paranoia. We know better than everyone else.

They're quite happy to visit Honolulu, where there's normally 4 or 5 nuclear powered ships and submarines in port, and nuclear weapons stored adjacent to the airport, or San Diego, New York, Florida or dozens of other cities where there's nuclear reactors, weapons and nuclear-powered ships but NZ...no way!!!

Pathetic actually.

by Palmtree08 | 13th Aug 23, 8:51am 1691873488

If you are a passionate techno utopian industrialist, there are plenty of places to immigrate to.

by wingman | 13th Aug 23, 9:17am 1691875059

The kids have already gone to Australia, along with tens of thousands of other kiwis. And I told them not to come back.

by Macawsley | 13th Aug 23, 10:41am 1691880095

Sort of like public transport, Nzers happy to use London Underground , subways and trains in Europe and US.

Not in Nz - many it seems would rather sit stuck in traffic and complain about the cost of building a public transport network - at the expense of adding just one more lane.

by Rampart | 12th Aug 23, 3:24pm 1691810676

On the shaky isles. No thanks

by M0ralHazard | 14th Aug 23, 12:28pm 1691972916

Energy supply? Or electricity supply?

by Brendon | 12th Aug 23, 11:40am 1691797227

Well that podcast was clearly the gas lobby's viewpoint

by Jonny.Foe | 13th Aug 23, 6:12am 1691863972

I had to turn it off halfway. I actually agree that the Govt's 100% by 2030 target is wrong, but the notion that getting the incentives right, adjusting some policy settings, and restarting gas and oil exploration will somehow create a smooth transition off fossil fuels is spectacularly misinformed.

by Brendon | 13th Aug 23, 10:52am 1691880772

Yes there was some amazing lack of critical thinking in the podcast.

For instance, NZ has massive renewable resource potential - geothermal, biomass, solar, wind... NZ's energy transition should be easy but somehow we have made it hard.

In particular we have some of the best wind conditions in the world. Wind power per unit generated costs are falling rapidly - as is solar. NZ has oodles of consented yet unbuilt wind power schemes. There doesn't seem to be a problem getting consent for solar. Capital is available from any number of sources - Kiwisaver investors, NZ Super Fund, ACC, private investors, existing electricity suppliers.... So why isn't NZ's electricity market rapidly closing the gap needed to make NZ electricity system 100% renewable? And why isn't NZ rapidly electrifying its whole economy - going from 40% to 100% in its renewable supply of energy production?

The problem is the structure of the electricity market.

Journalist Tom Pullar-Strecker highlights the problem https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/132700541/2-billion-fund-cant-solve-th…

"No investor wants to own the solar and wind farms that would be needed to replace the coal and gas that is currently burnt to meet the country’s peak electricity demand, as that means owning a power plant that might only be used a couple of hours a day or a few weeks a year.

More funds for available investment is dandy, but no government can solve the problem in reaching 100% renewables without addressing the structure of the electricity market."

This is a particular problem because the electricity system needs to expand and if renewables can only profitably supply 75% to 90% of market (what NZ has achieved quarterly since the Sept 2020 quarter) then supply will chronically not quite increase fast enough to meet rising demand - meaning electricity prices will be higher than what they could be. This will be good for lazy gentaliers and the other elites in NZ society who benefit from under supplying NZ with what it needs. But for the rest of us it is bad.

Everywhere else in the world they are looking at storage options to solve the intermittency problem of the renewable energy transition. Labour has the NZ Battery project to investigate this - it is primarily looking at solving the seasonal/yearly intermittency of hydro - but it will help with shorter periods of intermittency of wind and solar, too (actually solar has seasonal variability as well as day/night variability). Whether the solution is Onslow or a broader portfolio approach is yet to be determined. But to think the status quo settings with a little more permissiveness for gas is the answer is really naive.

by Brendon | 13th Aug 23, 11:19am 1691882386

The podcast claim that cost of building pumped hydro - or presumably any electricity storage system that the NZ Battery project is investigating - will be added to the cost of electricity shows a lack of understanding of how markets work.

Electricity markets without the ability to store electricity would be like an economy that can not store food. Everything produced would need to be immediately consumed or it is wasted. It would be a feast and famine society.

But if a way to store food was invented. A grain store, a canning operation, refrigeration tech etc. Then the cost of building that technology wouldn't be added to the price of food. Because a new arbitrage over time market would be created. Expanded growing season production could be stored. Market players could buy cheaply in the growing season and sell at below the previous market clearing price in the non-growing season (which could be very high in famine times).

Overall, the likes of grain stores, cool stores, canned storage facilities etc would lower not raise prices. Why would building electricity storage facilities be any different?

by Chris Morris | 13th Aug 23, 12:24pm 1691886251

So writes a man who has absolutely no understanding of the actual mechanism of dispatch.

by Brendon | 13th Aug 23, 12:54pm 1691888041

Enough to notice the gas lobby likes the term dispatchable supply but doesn’t like to talk about the NZ Battery project which is about stored electricity supply.

Dispatchable supply only solves the famine problem of intermittent energy sources (and gas does this task at a very expensive per unit rate). Dispatchable supply doesn't provide a solution to the feast problem.

by Chris Morris | 13th Aug 23, 6:24pm 1691907897

Well then you would also know that Onslow isn't dispatchable upper NI power which is where it's needed.

by Brendon | 14th Aug 23, 10:48am 1691966927

Maybe the upper NI needs dispatchable cheaper modern battery storage (in a portfolio approach of different storage options) rather than old fashioned gas peaker plants. Something like they are doing in the US?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vXouVvzj5nQ

by Poission51 | 12th Aug 23, 12:22pm 1691799764

The CAN for low residual generation was due to both fleet outages and low offers for reserve generation.The cha nge in generation capacity was due to closure of a thermal 44mw,significant breakdown of H5 gas unit ( out 1/7/23 to may 24 ) 369 mw, Unit 6 being out from Nov 22-sep23 at Manapouri 125 mw,and another unit at Manapouri coming back on the 8th ,failing and being out again to 29/9 125 mw,there was also another 75 mw of hydro out during upgrades,no need to panic.

by The Person | 12th Aug 23, 6:29pm 1691821776

No need to panic? Your description makes the quality of our generation assests sound pretty poor and gets me pondering some personal backup generation.

by Uninterested | 12th Aug 23, 7:41pm 1691826093

Things happen all the time. Especially with ageing assets. That is why a generous amount of overbuild is required.

(Incredibly expensive if its renewable, sized to work in with hydro for peak power periods in dry cloudy windless winters. And not used 99% of the time).

In the past the idea was to have some (cheap to build) open cycle thermal generation sitting there ready to go. Which is now ruled out by this govt.

Power bills will rise.

There will come a time when there are thousands of houses in the slums not connected to the power system.

by The Person | 8th Sep 23, 9:39am 1694122769

> In the past the idea was to have some (cheap to build) open cycle thermal generation sitting there ready to go. Which is now ruled out by this govt.

This has already been built by the Clark Labour government.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whirinaki_Power_Station

by Poission51 | 13th Aug 23, 1:44pm 1691891091

There was in total 1120 mw in maintenance which is lower then the average winter outage of 1200 mw,summer and autumn it can be 2500 mw out,the fleet is around 10500 mw capacity,with an extra 10% in delivery.

by Jonny.Foe | 13th Aug 23, 6:10am 1691863800

Interviewee (and I'm paraphrasing): It is not about the fuel or power source as such, it is about having something in the mix that can provide decent amounts of power at short notice. There are a range of options there.

Eric: So, everyone, how are we going to get these rapid start-up gas spinners installed, and why are stupid Govt decisions to blame for everything that is wrong with our highly profitable power sector?

by Chris Morris | 13th Aug 23, 7:14am 1691867689

It is quite obvious that very few people have any understanding of how the day to day management and operation of the electricity system actually works and the costs involved. This is especially so when you work on the absolute reliability needed. That is a failing of our educational system - no technical nous.

CCS is a great theory, the practicalities are what prevent it. Supercritical geothermal makes fusion reactors look viable. If the unreliables were viable within a stable grid, they would have already been built.

by Chris Morris | 13th Aug 23, 8:59am 1691873979

The documents linked to in this blog post show why both Carbon Capture and Green Hydrogen aren't proposals made by people who know what they are talking about. Anyone who pushes them can be instantly discounted as a know nothing.

Comments On The Insanity Of EPA's New Power Plant Rule — Manhattan Contrarian

by solardb | 13th Aug 23, 10:00am 1691877613

Might be why the govt have ruled them out .

by powerdownkiwi | 14th Aug 23, 9:14am 1691961263

They haven't.

I don't usually agree with CM - he's a techno-optimist with blinkers, is the conclusion I've come to - but in those two he's right. The energy required to sequester, is so great we'll never allocate it 9from the energy we crave). So to with hydrogen - a loss in energy terms, a loss in molecular terms.

by solardb | 14th Aug 23, 11:20am 1691968821

Not the government exactly, but the NZ battery project has removed them from the options they are considering.

by Palmtree08 | 13th Aug 23, 9:03am 1691874191

The NZ government are working hard on the problem.

Not as hard as NACT plan to work on it though.

https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/international-migration-…

by Casual Observer | 13th Aug 23, 9:27am 1691875627

What sort of pressure would this put on our electricity infrastructure? https://www.rewiring.nz/

Rewiring Aotearoa work with and provide practical decarbonisation information across all sectors and communities to enable rapid climate action through electrification.

The only practical way to achieve zero emissions is to electrify millions of fossil fuel machines by 2030, this also saves money on energy bills today. We are building the most comprehensive dataset for New Zealand’s ambitious pathway to zero emissions.

We're part of a global movement already driving impact across Australia and the USA.

Rewiring Aotearoa is an independent non-partisan non-profit dedicated to representing the communities and small businesses in our energy system.

by solardb | 13th Aug 23, 10:10am 1691878229

It would be interesting to know what is the impediment to converting existing thermal to peaking units, and to running a portion on biomass.

Possibly recognising they can not be baseload generation in the future is the first step.

I think offpeak production of heat, and it's storage for use In the peak, either to get these units running faster, or directly.

by Chris Morris | 13th Aug 23, 12:22pm 1691886122

None of the current thermal plant runs baseload and hasn't done for a decade or more, apart from when we run out of water. Biomass is higher emissions than coal for bulk - include havesting, drying and transportation.. Look at the data from Drax

by solardb | 13th Aug 23, 2:03pm 1691892200

ok, maybe I should have said daily use, or regular use.

by powerdownkiwi | 14th Aug 23, 10:23am 1691965409

Eric is clearly a long way from being a journalist. This is the second piece of his which asks patsy questions of touts, without addressing the real issue - which is Limits, overshoot and depletion. Oh, and entropy.

Interviewing touts, runs two risks; the obvious one of them pushing their barrow, and the associated one of them all pushing their silo's barrow. That's reporting - they are indeed saying what they're saying and they're being honestly presented - but journalism requires dispassionate research; a quite different animal.

Could do better.

by Chris-M | 14th Aug 23, 2:02pm 1691978532

Any body know much about our risks with the Cook Straight cables. Somebody told me the following and it would be interesting to have verification.

1 We have three cables, but one has totally failed.

2 Of the two remaining cables one has a gas leak and could fail at any time.

3 Each of the operating cables has a capacity of ? (600 mw)

4 We cannot get a cable laying ship for at least 10 years.

If this is true we are in an extremely precarious situation. As things are already, we are frequently on the verge of a supply failure. When we add in the extra demand that the government is adding, the situation is surely getting close to critical. If one of those cables fails, are we seriously stuffed?

by Brendon | 14th Aug 23, 2:28pm 1691980112

I would say that is rumour possibly malicious. Certainly not fact.

Here are some actual factual details on NZ's HVDC link connecting the north and south islands.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HVDC_Inter-Island

Partial failure of the line has occurred from time to time as the above link details. Repair work for each event was successful.

by profile | 14th Aug 23, 2:50pm 1691981456

From the bastion of rumour, possibly malicious - Wikipedia!