Support for National is on the rise at the expense of ACT, meanwhile support for Jacinda Ardern has slumped to its lowest level since before she become prime minister in 2017, according to the latest 1News-Kantar Public poll.
Support for National increased by four percentage points to 32% since the last poll done in early-November. But rather than pinch votes from Labour or the Greens, which both received steady support at 40% and 9% respectively, a lift for National saw a fall for ACT.
Support for ACT fell by three points to 11%, as it retreated from the elevated level it rose to in 2021, when its leader David Seymour become a de facto leader of the opposition.
Christopher Luxon’s leadership is bringing National supporters back home. Support for Luxon as prime minister rose 13 points to 17%, while support for Seymour dropped five points to 6%.
Support for Ardern continued its downward trajectory, falling four points to 35%. The drop comes as Covid-19 drags on and the Government's response receives more criticism.
Interestingly, the portion of respondents who didn’t know who they want to be prime minister rose again to 28%.
Labour and the Greens would still secure 63 seats, accordingly to the poll, only two more than the 61 required to govern. National and ACT would get 55 seats. They wouldn’t be able to get Te Pāti Māori on side; its co-leader telling 1News the party wouldn’t want to form a government with National.
Kantar surveyed 1000 people for the poll between January 22 and 26. The last poll was done between November 6 and 10.
Here are the numbers:
Preferred party:
Labour: 40% (down 1 point)
National: 32% (up 4 points)
ACT: 11% (down 3 points)
Greens: 9% (no change)
Te Pāti Māori: 2% (up 1 point)
NZ First: 2% (down 1 point)
TOP: 2% (up 1 point)
New Conservatives: 1% (no change)
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party: 1% (no change)
Don't know: 7% (no change)
Refused: 4% (up 2 points)
Seats (61 needed to govern):
Labour: 51
Greens: 12
Te Pāti Māori: 2
National: 41
ACT: 14
Preferred prime minister:
Jacinda Ardern: 35% (down 4 points)
Christopher Luxon: 17% (up 13 points)
David Seymour: 6% (down 5 points)
Chlöe Swarbrick: 1% (down 1 point)
Winston Peters: 1% (steady)
Don't know: 28% (up 2 points)
Refused: 5% (no change)
94 Comments
If only we could get a result like Brazil, where a clown was elected twice to Congress, by a landslide the second time.
Tiririca used his speech to Congress to blast the sloth and corruption of many of his 513 colleagues. “We are well paid to work, but only eight of 513 actually show up here often. I am one of those eight and I am a clown,” he said.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/08/brazil-clown-tiririca-gru…
Some of them are starting to organise: https://www.reddit.com/r/housingprotestnz/
I reckon TOP has the opportunity (no pun intended) but they need to trim off some of their superfluous policy ideas and run primarily on housing and tax reform. Become a voice for the young who've had their wealth transferred off them and handed to comparatively untaxed asset speculators.
Disagree, with respect. The traditional thing is to go with Nat until things get choppy, then put Lab in to soften the blow and rearrange the deckchairs (Nordy's Black Budget, heck, even '35).
I think there a good chance the c--p hits the fan in the next 12-24 months. I mean: really hit. And you don't go for corporate board/neolib types when you've been shafted by 35 years of that (when you realise your house-based ' wealth' .............wasn't. So you vote for something which will look after you. As Lab have tried very hard to do. Misguided they may have been, but genuine in the caring they definitely were.
Interesting times; and they can only happen once.....
National would be worse than this lot?
Wow.
To be fair the academics are also professional politicians. Surely noone will dispute that practical experience is very thin on the ground.
Is that a fair reflection of society? I think we will find out at the answer at the next election Rick. My money is on a major change.
Its been my experience that both corporates and governments are run by people that have little practical experience, but are generally charismatic and politically savvy. Neither are ever good reflections of society. Todays internet and media exposure and lack of a bit of mongrel are a big problem.
I know a few ex corporate types who thought they could make millions in SME's and have failed, when the reports, meetings and corporate speak count for nothing, the rubber hits the road.
Unfortunately I find Luxon to be Key jr. His mannerisms, speech... arrgghhh. Ardern is just the PC queen. Rawiri Waititi I like, but he isnt palatable for the general cotton wool soaked populace.
Did you reply to the right person? (Just asking on the "National would be worse than this lot?" question, which doesn't seem related to my post.)
I was just asking who are Academics, as I can't recall any off the top of my head.
"Practical experience" is an interesting one. Of what in particular do you mean?
Why are we enamoured with "business experience" (to use the term often used elsewhere), just as past groups thought being aristocracy or having military experience was critical? I have long worked in business and this seems incredibly flawed and short-sighted to hold "business experience" as the gold standard.
We had a gambler of other people's money in for 8 years, and I voted for him twice. Fat lot of use he or his "practical experience" was. Bill English was a career politician, and Gerry Brownlee a school teacher turned career politician.
The issues we face go far beyond what most general managers, sales people, and even CEOs face. Running everything "as a business" has seen us underfunding health (make our short-term cashflow position look better), suppressing important wages (e.g. police, nurses), and looking at short term and non-useful financial measures (nominal GDP), and under-investing in R&D (as Jac Nasser famously did at Ford) and education - two critical areas for NZ's long-term productivity. We have been plagued by the Agency Problem as MPs have thought only of the short term and of inflating their own wealth, neglecting long-term issues.
We have neglected security issues in favour of short term cash - e.g. food security, and too much dependence on one country.
Instead of enamouring "business experience" that has failed us so far, we would seem to need a better mix of more strategic perspectives. The question should be where we find those.
Sorry I thought you were being sarcastic.
Bill English was actually a farmer.
Your example of Brownlee is interesting. Not a popular figure, but I heard so many left wingers criticise him for being "just a woodwork teacher". So often that I figured it must have been on some comms sent to the party faithful. Why is being a woodwork teacher not seen by lefties as good enough???
I'd rather have ordinary people representing me. Note this is different to the diversion being presented of "business professionals". Business managers and co imho are often pretty hopeless.
In spirit I agree with your comment about running health as a business. Although I read that the US health system held up better under pressure than Canada recently. Did we really run health as a business like the usa clearly do? Or did we just stuff it up?
Not exactly always PDK. Lange & entourage hardly softened the blows did they. Not meant as a criticism.In fact just wish we had some of that dynamic, innovative & entertaining personality & calibre in parliament right now. Ironically re Nordmeyer, years later, when I was part of a meeting with Muldoon towards his finish then too, going off subject he remarked quite sadly that Arnold was one of the ones in parliament that he had admired, more than most.
TOP is the one to watch now with Raf Manji just elected as Leader.
"Deep structural change, and fast" - yippie.
I voted TOP last time (yes I was the one) but after Geoff left I thought they had lost a critical element, a differentiator, someone who could talk to the policy and their effects.
I think Raf may well be a good leader, time will tell but I would have thought some introspection on the back of 2017 failings would have been in order.
To up the anti on radical policy didn't work last time and won't work this time. I won't be voting for them again as a) the electorate has rejected some of the extreme positions and going all in on them will exacerbate this and b) not changing policy to better fit what the electorate values shows a lack of leadership.
The problem with TOP is that it is a party set up by an economist using economic principals to base its policies. As has been acknowledged on this site many time, economists have routinely, and usually get it wrong big time! A good example was that Gareth Morgan wanted a tax on asset values, specifically houses - owner occupied ones. He justified this because OOs did not pay rent. I could not believe it when I heard this. There are so many problems with this concept that it is completely wrong, but he couldn't see that.
Overlooking that it would result in land bankers paying tax on their banked land, loss making landlords paying tax etc.
Overlooking that overall tax take remains the same with a reduction in paye.
Overlooking that the system created housing ponzi would come to an end.
Overlooking that the huge amount of tax used to run the bureaucracy of MSD would reduce massively.
Overlooking that UBI would be it - you'll have to get out of bed if you want to increase your situation..not just phone up msd.
Think again
If you can't sell such an amazing world changing idea to people then maybe the idea actually isn't that great. Taxing people for living in their own homes is a shitty policy, it was then and it still is now.
It's not that it's difficult to grasp, it's just a shitty policy.
From the point of view of an unimaginative and selfish asset owner who has not grasped it, yes, it might look silly.
From the point of view of asset less class and those who can see the inequity of our tax and housing systems, it's a very good policy.
But hey...lets stick with the tried and trusted policies that are delivering the equitable society and affordable housing we desire.
The road to hell is paved with good intentions
Or to quote C.S. Lewis:
“Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience. They may be more likely to go to Heaven yet at the same time likelier to make a Hell of earth. This very kindness stings with intolerable insult. To be "cured" against one's will and cured of states which we may not regard as disease is to be put on a level of those who have not yet reached the age of reason or those who never will; to be classed with infants, imbeciles, and domestic animals.”
The principle applies, even if we don't live in tyranny
In the 2021 annual predictions I said that NZ First would fold up its tent. A year later and it hasn't formally happened yet, but it's hard to see how they can survive. Winnie is too old now and the few possible replacements have bailed. Polling these numbers and the corporate donations will go elsewhere.
Statisticaly speaking he is about 40% of the population, which is most of the working class. No doubt you want to blame them for not being poor enough to benefit from minimum wage increase or rich enough to benefit from inflation or tax cuts. I don't think that is an appropriate response.
This is a factually untrue statement re health funding per capita, which increased significantly from 2017 to now after 5+ years of austerity under National.
But they should have done it better. And National will likely once more run austerity.
Celebrating their failure to fund it enough by putting in an austerity government instead is just shooting yourself in the foot.
Far to hard apparently Roger, you know just suddenly paying them more to retain decent staff here and attract back all those that left to go overseas. Instead we throw Billions of dollars around like its a lolly scramble and cut rates so we can buy more houses. We apparently didn't have the money to pay nurses more money but its amazing where the Billions of dollars suddenly came from for everything else.
NZ can afford it, if you just cut on wasteful spending, refocus our bloated welfare system, and redirect some of the existing spending to necessary areas such as, for example, public healthcare rather than on bureaucrats, strategists, pen-pushers, coordinators, PR consultants and the likes.
We need a 'Get sh#t done!" leader, already I'm drowning in bureaucracy and all I'm getting promised is more water. I liked Trump's policy of getting rid of 3 regulations for every new one introduced but I'd settle for no new regs. Even the policy wonks can't keep up, new regs aren't even finalised before they are made law and even then I can't get 2 people to agree on how to comply.
Catch 22 for which I have some sympathy. Want performance, introduce accountability, incompetence too many layers deep, accountability stops 2 layers down, performance does not arrive, new leadership depart, working party starts, working party concludes, suggests increasing accountability.
Too much regulation is from trying to protect ratepayers/taxpayers from having to pay for the building industry delivering crappy products and services, as taxpayers had to pay to clean up in the past.
Ideally, instead we'd have mandatory building industry insurance...but unfortunately no insurance company is prepared to underwrite the building industry, based on its history.
It is indeed an odd time for a poll. The holiday break, still hungover, in which the government went to ground but the activity from the opposition, except for the energetic David Seymour, was pretty muted too, Quite unexplainable when the threat of omicron was looming & being illustrated, hard and fast, across the Tasman by our enthusiastic media. The Prime Minister & her ministers are unfortunately something of a facade. Protected by swarms of secretaries & media spokespersons. Dependent on echelons of advisors, consultants and experts, you name it, and devoid of any acumen to establish if the advice they receive as such, is either practical or the best option. Hence the MoH as an example, obviously treats them with disdain, they should have been read the riot act way back for example, when they chose to disobey an executive order to test all border staff. An incompetent thief is most unlikely to catch a competent one. The opposition now have the dawning of opportunity to expose the failings of the present government but to do that they must first regain credibility and to do that, they must convince the electorate that they are united, purposeful, and present to the electorate candidates that are of substance and integrity and nothing like the trash that has been cutting them down over the last four years or so They must too, stop the shadow boxing and sound bites and start landing some telling blows.
Sadly, New Zealand election results depend on who can capture the swinging centrist voters who are middle-aged, middle-income, home-owning, concerned about social inequities (but not enough to change tax structures), worried about house prices for their kids (but enjoying being sat on loads of equity). The policy agenda is designed to please them. We are doomed.
I disagree.
I am one of those centrist, middle-aged, home-owning voters and I am very worried about house prices for the new generations, for the financial stability of NZ and the very fabric of NZ society.
Yes I am sitting on loads of equity but this gives me no enjoyment whatsoever, and I would be very happy for any government to act aggressively on curbing the parasitic activities of housing specufestors and on piloting a managed but significant and sustained decrease to house prices.
Shame that one of the first things Labor did in 2018 was to cancel the next section from Cambridge to Tīrau.
They said they were going to spend the money on the train from the CBD to Auckland airport instead. Possibly forgot to mention that it wouldn't happen until the year 2,109,978
That is indeed a big point for them. Good on them.
But I want to see details in all other main areas of policy such as how to diversify the NZ economy, how to direct the RBNZ to curb inflation, how to improve the tax structure and promote business growth and investment, how to address the housing crisis, how to curb gangs and criminality, how to make public healthcare more effective etc.
I have not seen any such points addressed with any satisfactory level of detail and at least some form of basic convincing analysis of the actions required.
I think at the moment it is easier than that. By comparison any party will need to get more than one thing right to be better than the current governance.
To be fair Labour are getting the most important thing right and that is definitely a strong positive but outside of the COVID response nothing has gone right.
Um... in a multi-party MMP environment there is no "opposition" party.
Each political party has a number of seats proportional to the number of votes it got.
The party that can command sufficient votes for "confidence and supply" gets to pick the front benches.
If a coalition of parties has "confidence and supply" then the front benches may contain ministers from more than one party.
In that context there is no one party that is "the government" and no one party that is the "opposition". Those are obsolete terms from the bad dark days of First Past The Post.
As the Nats improved votes were always going to be taken from ACT. Because ACT votes were sort of a protest vote against the Nats in their recent terrible times.
As a long time ACT voter I see another factor in ACT's vote drop. I see endless press releases from ACT, always wingeing about some government action. MIQ blah blah. Picking every hole in some covid rule might be correct opinion but it's not offering any leadership.
I am not seeing a forward vision laid out simply. All protests with no vision makes ACT hard to vote for.
There's a few other things that make ACT hard to vote for as well KH.
- Cut and freeze the Minimum wage
- Interest back on all student loans
- No Kiwsaver subsidy
- Cancel winter energy payment
- Dump all climate crisis legislation
- no more best start payments for families with new borns
- cut welfare payments
- no tax credits for research and development
- cuts to working for families
- $7b a year cut in public services
- Abolish Maori seats
- Abolish Human Rights Commission
We have a Human Rights Commission? Perhaps they could revisit the aviation security vaccine mandate ruling given the Judicial Review assumptions about transmission have been blown out the water by events e.g. quad vaxxed Israel have the record high covid transmission.
"The measure is only justified if it provides a wider public benefit. And in the end that comes down to a single issue — whether the vaccine contributes to suppressing the transmission of the Delta variant of COVID-19."
"More COVID cases confirmed in Israel in January than all of 2021, data shows"
https://www.timesofisrael.com/more-covid-cases-confirmed-in-israel-in-j…
2021-NZHC-3012.pdf (courtsofnz.govt.nz)
I’m covid-unvaccinated!
I feel really sorry for all my fellow kiwis who’re having their arms twisted behind their backs, and threatened with the loss of their jobs.
If you’re like me and you’ve already had covid19, then it makes absolutely no sense to get this “vaccine”. The CDC just came to the conclusion that natural recovery gives you far better protection that the mrna transfection vaccines.[1], However the scientific community already knew that reinfection was rare.[2] More importantly we knew from the SARS-COV1 outbreak in 2002-2003 that natural recovery from a similar coronavirus afforded long lasting (>12 years) T-cell mediated immunity.[3][4][5]
Even if you haven’t had covid then Omicron changes the vaccine risk/benefit dynamic such that not getting vaccinated is the sensible option for the healthy majority of people. Transfecting kids with a redundant spike protein against a harmless virus just seems reckless and insane.[6][7]
Even the British Medical Journal is becoming hostile towards governments and pharma companies.[8]
I'd agree with about half of these. The rest are ideological nonsense and would likely be blocked by the coalition partner with an eye on the middle. Some people like to select minor political parties based on key policy platforms, most of which aren't actually doable for minor parties under MMP. I go for least worst options, which is why I held my nose when I voted last election, hating half the policies of the party I voted for.
Seymour actually picked up one of the policy ideas (not one of the above!) I challenged him on at a public meeting before the last election. He pooh-poohed it at the time, but it looks like he went away and thought about it, to his credit, because he changed his tune shortly afterwards.
David Seymour doesn't have the street-cred to become a cult leader in the mould of say Winston Peters.
Having witnessed his street-corner electioneering speeches I was left underwhelmed....he is the least charismatic politician I have ever seen. The National disaffected reluctantly turned to him by default...there was simply nobody else on offer for their protest vote.
After this crap, if someone gets 35% approval then clearly things will be worst in the future & no one will take responsibility.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/01/prime-minister-jacinda-…
As the number one choice, we have leader refute house price increase or inflation concerns (35%) on the second position we have property investor (17%).
The property will go up and inflation will stay for decades to come.
Act's drop coincides with Seymour losing his nerve and deciding to appease the Covid freaks with his rhetoric and policy.
He was for a while the sole voice of logic in Parliament. Now he just chips away at the govt on questions of execution, rather than tackling the whole edifice of what the hell we are trying to achieve.
There is virtually no difference in the Left V Right vote in this poll. No pathway for the Right to form Govt. Labour still in the box seat.
Big issues next year will be the long term effects of COVID, the growing cost of living and interest rates. And who do the voters trust on health and housing issues? Labour
I predict next year's election to give Labour another majority. People will see Labour ahead of Nats, but once again don't want to see Greens anywhere near power and the centre voters will go Labour to keep the Greens out once again.
kiwis that live overseas for more than three years should not be able to vote, they are not contributing to NZ and as such (with about 25% living overseas) can have a big say with no consequences unless we want to be like the USA and then feel free to vote but also put in like the rest of us
"Americans must pay U.S. taxes on foreign income. The U.S. is one of only two countries in the world where taxes are based on citizenship, not place of residency. If you're considered a U.S. citizen or U.S. permanent resident, you pay income tax regardless where the income was earned."
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