By Greg Ninness
House prices are now falling in most parts of the country making home ownership more affordable for first home buyers in most places, according to interest.co.nz’s June Home Loan Affordability reports.
The reports show that the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand’s lower quartile selling prices have fallen back from their recent peaks in 10 of the 12 regions where affordability is measured, - Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Hawke's Bay, Taranaki, Wellington, Nelson/Marlborough, Canterbury, Otago and Southland, with prices continuing to rise in only two regions - Manawatu/Whanganui and Bay of Plenty.
In Auckland, the lower quartile selling price was $650,000 In June, a decline of 4.4% from the peak of $680,000 set in March.
Within the region the price falls have been greatest on the North Shore where the lower quartile price was $775,000 in June, down 9.6% compared to the peak of $857,500 set in July last year.
There was also a significant fall in south Auckland where the lower quartile price dropped from its peak of $665,000 in May to $625,000 in June, a decline of 6% in a month.
In the central Auckland suburbs the lower quartile price dropped from its peak of $695,669 set in March to $668,500 in June (-3.9%).
In Rodney the lower quartile price dropped from its peak of $728,000 in May to $710,000 in June. And in west Auckland it was back from its peak of $680,500 in August to $672,000 in June.
Prices have also dropped in Franklin on Auckland’s southern rump, where the lower quartile price has fallen back from its peak of $580,000 in January to $525,000 in June.
However Pukekohe has gone against the trend setting a record high of $590,000 in June.
Pukekohe and Franklin the only affordable parts of Auckland
Although the price falls will be welcomed by first home buyers struggling to find a place they can afford, the only parts of Auckland that could be considered affordable for first home buyers are Pukekohe and Franklin.
That’s because the mortgage payments on a home purchased at the lower quartile in either of those districts would be below 40% of the net income of typical first home buyers.
Even after the latest falls in prices, other parts of Auckland remain out of reach for typical first home buyers who would struggle to meet the mortgage payments on a lower quartile-priced home in those areas.
The only other district in the country to face similar affordability issues to Auckland is Queenstown, which is the second most unaffordable place in the country for first home buyers after Auckland’s North Shore.
In both districts, typical first home buyers would need to set aside more than half of their after tax pay each week to make the mortgage payments on homes purchased at the lower quartile price.
People in that situation would likely be at risk of serious financial hardship as interest rates rise, potentially to the point where they could face losing their homes.
But outside Auckland and Queenstown, housing remains well within affordability limits for first home buyers.
Even in other major centres such as Hamilton, Tauranga, Wellington City, Christchurch and Dunedin, lower quartile prices remain low enough that the mortgage payments would be well under 40% of net pay for typical first home buyers in those areas.
Outside of Auckland and Queenstown, lower quartile prices range from $152,000 in Whanganui to $510,000 in Tauranga, and the mortgage payments on homes purchased at those prices would take up between 10.5% and 35.7% of typical first home buyers’ take home pay, well within affordability limits.
124 Comments
I would still recommend to First Time Buyers to hold off purchasing your home in Auckland for at least six months to a year. The property market here is clearly falling and there's no point in putting yourself at risk of negative equity that could mean that you would loose your home if the banks aren't able to lend to you if prices dropped significantly over the next year which is looking highly likely.
Have to say I'm not sure about whether building costs will come down. Though if building suppliers aren't selling then they'll have to lower their rates. One other area that could improve is the cost of red tape for building instructions could be reduced to help bring down costs.
Thank you, it is a horrible dilemma. Rental and storage costs are a killer, basically it boils down to build now pay a premium and lose the value of my hard earned savings and a large portion of my retirement funds to Fletchers etc or if costs increase not be able to build at all, a huge risk either way. I am not sure which is worse.
It's a tough one. As mortgage credit reduces construction costs will fall, but probably a lot more slowly than house prices themselves. The value of your built house will be referenced to the total pool of houses, so if prices fall generally then so will yours regardless of its construction cost.
Thank you. I was thinking along the same lines as I have spoken to quite a few builders, some of them are saying they are booked out until 2020 so are not likely to reduce their prices soon (unless a calamity happens). What has confused me is the amount of houses now being advertised by developers on Trademe at "discounted" prices, so there must be some sort of stress (though I think they are largely developers who have over extended themselves, not your independent builders). In relation to the value of the house being referenced to the total pool of houses, that does not really concern me as I plan on dying there and then passing it on to my children, unless rates increase so much I simply cannot afford the cost of living there. In short I suppose it is similar to the problem of should one fix your mortgage or float it and I will just have to take a punt and wear the consequences. I think the problem is worse for people near the end of their lives than for the younger generation, at least the younger ones have the advantage of time on their hands.
Falling house prices will correct after the election and winter.
We still have record high immigration so the housing crises is going to get worse.
Interest rates are low and long term fixed don't indicate a change.
Even If Winston gets in with a mandate that can cut immigration it will take years for the pressure in the housing system to drop off.
The real question is weather you can build cheaper than buying an existing house?
The wild card is the unfolding collapse of the petro dollar. When this happens USA economy will think the GFC was a picnic. How this will effect house prices is an unknown, If credit dries up like after the GFC house prices will drop despite pressure of market.
Thank you, I just wanted to check in with all of you who are far more knowledgeable than I. For complicated reasons I am pretty much locked in to building. I feel as if I am jumping off the edge of a cliff, the trouble with that, is the older one gets one's ability to bounce is somewhat reduced.
As you say the wild card is the Petro Dollar, Qatar, OBR risks etc and when one has a large amount of savings in a bank for a building project this can become unnerving.
Plainly put this is doing my head in and I will just have to take a leap of faith, though as an atheist that is not very comforting. LOL. Here goes and thank you for everyone that has helped me
Here we go again.....
Look at rental yields. House prices have little to do with occupier demand or a "housing crisis". Housing demand from owner occupiers do not and will not support prices at these levels in Auckland, which are at severely unaffordable levels for income earners. It's a classic asset price bubble caused by cheap credit and loose lending. The banks have now called time on the credit bubble as they themselves are under pressure from regulators and their own couterparties.
"Petrodollar crash"? Never heard of that one before.
Banks pull the pin on lax credit regularly and there is no evidence from the past to suggest that this alone will cause a major market failure and if it did rate cuts would follow.
Im not sure if youre been sarcastic in reference to the petro dollar crash but for those of us who believe the standard response from central banks to financial distress is rate cuts, the petro dollar failure is ultimately what puts a stop to that game so we watch its progress with interest.
As the country has been finding out to its detriment over the last few years, the RBNZ does not set interest rates to control the housing market, but to control inflation. Falling house prices would not affect interest rates unless they also cause inflation to fall.
Trying to build,
I have not faced your specific dilemma,but having moved here from the UK some years ago,I was faced with a not dissimilar dilemma over the exchange rate. Would the rate improve or get worse? How long should I wait?
My decision was to work out what the best use of my capital was,irrespective of the rate of exchange. I know of one person who refused to bring over a very substantial sum,because he had a fixed view of what he thought the rate should be and this has cost him dearly.
In other words,do what suits your peronal circumstances and move on. I have no idea whther that is at all helpful,but I wish you well.
Do you need to stay in Auckland? My opinion for what it's worth, with the current rate of new homes being built in Tauranga (specifically Papamoa and Pyes Pa/Tauriko) and the amount of spec homes now listed on Trade Me in those parts I suspect there may be a wee glut coming. Most of these new homes are listed between 600 to 700K. I don't see that there are enough buyers in the area that can actually afford those prices and I think they will keep easing back down. To my mind they are still expensive and I suspect there will be some builders wanting to cut their losses at some point and sell for quite a bit less. Anyway there could be a whole heap of brand new homes available soon as they don't seem to be slowing down on the building front here.
Yes, I saw the rents in that area had spiked so maybe there has been an accomodation demand spike, but the spike was so large that it didn't quite ring true. And yes supply of land is not an issue around Tauranga ie papamoa etc, so given the building going on there I will would not be surprised to see some distress in the Tauranga market.
I understand. Just thought it may have been an option. We considered leaving Tauranga ourselves for somewhere cheaper when we wanted to get back into the market and prices were crazy. But with a business & 9 staff to consider it wasn't really an option for us. So I'm not trying to heartless & do understand. We ended up just biding our time & saving till it became easier here again. Best of luck to you.
you need to check the NZQA stats plenty of schools in NZ have much better results
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11619826
Yes it does sound as though your stuck between a rock and a hard place. Also I can say is try to negotiate costs down as much as possible and use the falling market to your advantage.
I remember when I was in the UK during the GFC, I held off on having any major work done to my property and glad that i did, since refurbishment quotes that I got were basically halved in a year of the crash, since there was very little building work going on to keep them going so builders got a lot more competitive.
I am thinking along the lines of building the main structure and delaying the interior as long as possible, I think I have a maximum of two years for CCC so hopefully I can spread the risk over that time, then I am in a position of being able to watch what is happening and speed up or slow down the progress depending on what I observe. I know that is very rudimentary, but it is the best strategy I can come up with considering my lack of knowledge.
NB. I have no idea what I am talking about and please don't be unkind.
Sounds like a good idea. And I assure you that you have more experience of new self builds then most of us. :)
I would use your two year window to your advantage. Look around you, we have perpetual sales on at the moment and in six months time they'll be even more desperate for business. Always negotiate and go for quotes and let them know that your shopping around to get the best price, they'll respect you more for it. :)
HI Trying to build - I sort of feel what are you are going through as I have been there too at some stage - here is some food for thought that might help you:
You pay a finite price when you buy a house, ... not the case when you build.. building is like endless love and people who get away with just 10% over budget are considered very lucky nowadays - If you plan to build and complete within two years then be prepared to put an extra 20% aside, you will need it for sure.
ATM building costs more, unless you had a section ages ago and costed you very little compared with today's prices, otherwise building an average quality house today ( with all its problems delays and restrictions) is slightly more expensive than your future neighbours unless you are building in a new built neighbourhood ...and the value of your new built will be affected by the prices of your existing neighbours' prices.
I am in the market for a house in Auckland and have investigated new built options , sections, contractor and material prices too.. etc, this isn't the first house I build so I know about the hidden costs and pitfalls ... My conclusion is that buying an existing property is about 10-20% cheaper than similar sized new built ( have to consider new material and quality etc too)
its a tough call, but certainly buying something you like with an eye on improving it will cost less.
Hope this helps and good luck
I am in a similar situation. Just trying to get through the design process alone is difficult with all the useless cowboys. My neighbours have had similar issues with their build. My wife wants to buy a tiny house but of course there are ridiculous covenants on our land like everywhere these days. And the building quality here is third world - 90mm framing, aluminium window frames, no central heating - anything over that spec costs a fortune.
Totally agree. I could understand an owner occupier exchanging broadly like for like buying a house in this market. I cannot understand for the life of me why anyone else would buy a house in this market when it was 10x income or even 5 or 6 time outside Auckland and when some sort of decline was expected. Just rent.
I also don't think it makes a difference if outside Auckland affordability is said to be better. The question isn't can I buy now, the question is SHOULD I buy now. And if expectations are for falls, you shouldn't buy.
I don't know who is going to buy all the negative geared and interest only and highly leveraged investment properties that must surely come on the market soon. Without capital gains, those "investments" make no sense.
Hi Bobster. I don't think property investors are still in the market, we are happily paying tax on rental profits awaiting the next correction.
Speculators purchase negatively geared rentals in the hope that they get to pay tax on capital gains.
Property investors purchase when rents cover expenses and are patiently awaiting the next correction so that they can feed off the speculators who gambled and got the timing wrong.
While its true imo that investors are not selling but rather well set up for a correction its not true that all/most investors are sitting on neutral or better properties and there isnt a need either. The actual calculation for the profitability of a property is not its profitability today's but rather its perceived profitability in the future. Because rents will rise over time you can buy negatively today and have it be profitable in the future. The effect over time is substantial and allows you to go negative by quite a surprising amount, such that yields of 4% or more are generally rather profitable long term provided capital growth over the period is at least a bit more than inflation. Never the less in my personal experience i havnt seen investors going much below 4.5% but thats because investors generally play it very safe.
If only you'd bought that F1 back in 1997.
http://www.autoblog.com/2016/03/25/mclaren-f1-values-auctions/
No one is making money at a 3% yield. If your are covering debt service with debt @ 5% its only because you have substantial equity in a property and the return on that is (absent capital gain) zero. So no, at a 3% yield and and zero or negative capital gains, investment properties (whether high or low keverafed) are actually giving a nil or negative return on equity. Whether or not your have low leverage absent capital gains it's a poor deal. You are effectively giving you'd tenant the benefit of your equity, they get to live in your house and pay you little or no equity return for it.
If I took all the advice on here about not buying I would still be renting 15 years later. If your in in for the long haul and your earning plenty of money with a stable job my advice is to always buy. Doesn't matter whats happening in the market or what people think is going to happen and probably won't you will not regret buying when its almost a cert that in 20 years the property prices will have doubled.
But when you're reaching retirement age you have to BUY NOW and many locals are choosing to buy into the retirement villages in their own suburb instead of fleeing to the regions. https://www.rawhitiestate.co.nz/
My folks are looking at selling in Auckland and heading for the regions and a cheaper place to retire to. They met with a real estate agent yesterday who suggested they put their place on the market on the weekend of, or before the election. Reason? She says there are a heap of owners waiting to put their house on the market the week after the election. Anyone looking to buy on the Shore is going to have a lot more choice soon. My advice to my parents was to put the place on the market now, consider all offers and get rid of it as fast as they can. Prices are only going one way.
Bit over dramatic.
But house price drop would be good, in line with wage of typical households, not households with two professionals on over 100K and no children.
As for 50% unemployment rate, who would want this?? They even need to work in Franklin believe it or not.
just a couple of reasons being :
- Overseas money drying up (mainly china) **National claimed that foreigners had no impact on our market
- Speculators staying away, as they are unsure what the election is going to uncover **National claimed that there was no speculation in the Auckland market
Came across this listing and if you compare this to a nice 4 bedder in Ponsonby. This house is for sale in the middle of Manhattan and a much better buy for someone from Shanghai. Auckland vs NYC.. ummm
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/72-E-1st-St_New-York_N…
Thats 4.7 million kiwi and for that money you could buy in Remuera with lots of land and a view of Rangitoto. No chance id give that up for NYC lol. Kicking back on the deck with a beer and the kids playing in the yard, BBQ purring away and the wife drinking a mojito, yeah ill take that life.
5 Auckland Streets Reserved For The EliteThese famous Auckland streets are some of the most expensive in the country, housing exclusive properties with the price tag to match. https://blog.homes.co.nz/5-auckland-streets-reserved-for-the-elite/
And what exactly is that based on Moa did you go to Grammar? The reality is an average kid at Grammar is an above average kid at every other school. In my year even the lower classes all got A Bursaries and all went to the best Uni's. Not sure what its like now however with the new breed.
I know underachieving putzes from Grammar (and various better schools) and overachievers from run of the mill high schools. I also have friends who have taught in private schools in Auckland, as well as high-decile public schools. Their experience suggests a high number of kids in the private and high-decile schools are underachieving, in part because their parents simply don't participate in their education enough, and haven't since they were wee sprogs.
In our Expat days our children attended some very well funded schools, both overseas and locally. One came back to board at Kings and one of the others attended the local school when we repatriated. I can't be definitive about the impact of the relative schooling quality (who can) but I've voted with a local State school education as I can't see the merits of paying big $ to get the same result as what comes free.
But outside Auckland and Queenstown, housing remains well within affordability limits for first home buyers.
How unsurprising the two regions with the least land availability are the most unaffordable.
The mountains and lake that surround Queenstown are very beautiful, but make it difficult to build.
The flat easily accessible Takanini-Ardmore Plains adjacent to Auckland are virtually ready to use, but Auckland Council forbid building there.
Insurmountable geography and insurmountable council incompetence - same result.
Gee the sweeping generalisations are coming in thick and fast today!
Grammar has definitely changed now in that you obviously have to be pretty well off to attend the school. In my day it was a selective school in that many of my mates were from all over the city and were selected when applying out of zone. Many from my local area were not selected and have been bitter towards it ever since.
Grammar is not for everyone and its not guaranteed your kid will come out successful if they attend the school but such is life personally Id rather send my kid to a private school nowadays as I believe its better value than living in the ludicrously priced DGZ.
To say that Grammar “only benefits the top 2%” is just a garbage throw away comment as the stats clearly show that the vast majority that go to the school go on to achieve great things and have the best network in the city.
Im old and I went to Waiuku College, but I have a few friends that went to Grammar, Kings and St Kents. These guys were boarders, and not local, all were good at rugby, cricket and academics.
Its funny the two Grammar guys have sent their kids to different schools, they loved Grammar, but chose different schools. Private schools and catholic schools.
These guys do OK but are your typical down to earth kiwi guys that love rugby that have happened to do OK. I might start calling them 1050's now, after reading this.
Places like Tauranga are about $300k to $400k for a section and about the same for a house depending on 3 to 4 bdm or rightaway section or area, older houses will be coming down to meet locals affordability I guess and builders will sharpen there pencils and sections a bit cheaper , people with a bit more money, older people will still buy new houses but it'll be a lot slower, AUCKLAND on the other hand with a slow down will put thousands out of work because the distance between new and old houses will be just to great, what's a average new house $1500000, could they come down much? , I bet there's a lot of great older houses done up, I don't know the askers, the masses of people need affordable housing ,city can't grow in population because new building crash or push house prices up so people start building and push up population or make new housing cheaper
Houses overpriced , if you are a first home buyer why can't you buy a older house, new houses specially in Auckland are normally for the more older and wealthier, in a year you could save over $200k and only waste about $30k in rent . and it's not wasting anything really because buying now means you would be paying a mortgage and in a year you'd hardly pay any principal , of course you would need to believe all the darter about prices dropping, your call
Auckland and Queenstown also earn 70% of NZ Airbnb income. 10% of Queenstown housing stock is on airbnb. Coincidence?
http://www.infometrics.co.nz/390000-airbnb-guest-nights-auckland-180000…
HOW EXPENSIVE IS YOUR SCHOOL ZONE??
https://blog.homes.co.nz/is-buying-a-house-in-double-grammar-zone-worth…
You can scoff all you like but the figures are there to show that birthrates are falling in locations where the cost of living is far too high. Here's just one example:-
Bloomberg article: China's Demographic Time Bomb Continues to Tick
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-17/china-s-demographic-…
Paul0 , yeah I'd sell but what is the reason all these people are waiting for after the election they probably don't want to sell anyway or they would now, so it money, greed , worry, , I guess they think if national gets in or maybe with the greens it's keep the house or peters and sell quick , all really stupid the county has corrections about every 10 years and have never stopped a correction, there's probably no need to even set DTI,s because the banks are having to do it anyway , and national want lower prices anyway, DESPITE, sad
Humans of Remuera revolt against the Unitary Plan
https://thestandard.org.nz/humans-of-remuera-revolt-against-the-unitary…
DGZ you cant have it both ways. You even call yourself DGZ, I didnt even know what 1050 was until you brought it up. Its like wearing a big, big brand new gold rolex, louis vuitton bags and gold sun glasses. It screams look at me, but dont judge me please even though I want you to judge me as being loaded.
Interesting site DGZ did you read this one?
https://thestandard.org.nz/the-great-auckland-housing-crash-of-2017/
Yes but if you shove that on an exponentially increasing house price curve its a blip, the overall trend is still upwards. In our entire property history in the last 50 years we have yet to see anything major thats resulted in long term price decline or even a plateau thats lasted years. This is not to say it will not happen, but if you had to place a bet on continued long term price increases or the chances of a massive crash and prices staying there which way would you bet ?
Eh? Ireland's trouble were purely caused by a ridiculous credit and property bubble. It started to deflate from 2007 and then from 2008 post Lehman bros the crash worsened as the banks failed. But property prices had started to decline well prior to Lehmans implosion in September 2008.
Interesting reading and factual analysis :
https://thestandard.org.nz/category/government-and-politics/
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