The sharp rate of decline in the number of home loan approvals is gradually slowing as the banks accustom themselves to the impact of the Reserve Bank's restrictions on high loan-to-value lending.
The LVR limits were put in place from October 1.
Latest figures compiled by the RBNZ for the week to February 14 show there were 6843 loans approved that week with a total value of $1.143 billion.
The RBNZ works out percentage comparisons by estimating the annual percentage change based on comparison of the most recent 13 weeks of data to the same 13 weeks in the previous year.
Based on the most recent 13 weeks of data, the numbers of mortgage approvals during that period were 8.9% lower than the figures for the same 13 weeks a year earlier.
Over the past four weeks that percentage drop has declined from its post-LVR peak of 11.2% as at January 24 to 9.4% the following week then 9.1% and now 8.9%.
Compared with the same week a year ago the latest week's figure is actually also down 8.9% (from 7515 mortgage approvals in the week to February 15, 2013).
In terms of the value of loan approvals the latest 13 weeks show an annual percentage change of minus 9.6% from the same 13 weeks a year ago, down from the peak of 11.5% also four weeks ago, but with the rate of decline having flattened in the past two weeks.
Real Estate Institute figures for January showed that house sales volumes and values have been knocked.
However, the latest BNZ-REINZ Residential Market Survey, compiled early this month, showed that housing market confidence was starting to return after the initial LVR shock.
6 Comments
Actually it's the December figures that are highly suspect. Also, the data being released is the number of approvals for the week to 14 Feb, not for the month of January. And the %ages changes are for the last 13 weeks, vs last 13 weeks last year, so include Feb, Jan, Dec, back to mid-Nov.
Click on the 2nd tab, numbers approved
http://www.interest.co.nz/charts/real-estate/mortgage-approvals
Interest rate rises (if any) will be subdued (if any).
Currently we are seeing interest rate cuts, yes cuts, by the banks. Sure they are marketing enticements rather than a fundamental wholesale trend, but it still shows that banks are not selling as much money as they would like - hence the cuts. If you want to sell a product (money) you need to meet the buying market (borrowers).
However, many buyers may be believing the excitable 'story' of the RockStar NZ economy and rate hikes to Floating of 8 -9% so may be affecting house buying behaviour at the moment - until the actual reality of 'small hikes' or flat rate, or bank lending rate cuts become evident.
If for whatever reason (internal or external) rate rises are less than the RBNZ forecasts, LVR restrictions are still a tool the RBNZ can adjust. The RBNZ stated comfort zone is house price inflation in line with the general inflation target.
Recent bank rate cuts should make the decision for a small 25bps hike in March even easier.
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