First home buyers were slightly less active in September, with fewer of them buying a property, although on average those who did buy paid slightly more for them and took out a slightly bigger mortgage.
According to the latest Reserve Bank figures, mortgages were approved for 2233 first home byers in September, down from 2481 in August. Interest.co.nz estimates their average purchase price was $674,479, up from $661,304 in August.
The average size of the mortgages approved for first home buyers in September was $561,129, with 31% of those low equity mortgages where the buyers had less than a 20% deposit.
The average size of the low equity mortgages approved to first home buyers in September was $630,277.
Overall, first home buyer activity has been relatively stable since March, with comparatively small variations. First home buyers' share of the total housing market has remained at 37% since June, after peaking at a record high of 39% in April and May this year (these figures only include sales that required a mortgage).
Interest.co.nz has been compiling statistics on first home buyers since the beginning of 2017. Between January 2017 and September 2023 first home buyers' share of housing sales has increased from 21% to 37%.
However that growth in first home buyers' market share is mainly the result of less activity by other types of property buyers, such as investors and existing home owners selling one house to buy another property.
As the table below shows, activity by first home buyers has been less volatile than the market overall, although it does follow the usual seasonal trends.
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53 Comments
Jeepers, the weekly mortgage outgoings on those low equity loans would be circa $1100-$1200. Most of the FHBs who are buying have high household incomes (edit: which of course makes sense. A middle income household wouldn’t be able to afford anything other than a one bedroom place in the bigger cities, unless they had plenty of help from the bank of mum and dad)
The sooner one gets a footing on the housing ladder, the better.
Hurry along, first-homebuyers, now's a very good time.
Investors - hold back, please, and form an orderly queue. Most of you have well-lined pockets already. This time give first-homebuyers a decent bite of the cherry.
TTP
The sooner one gets a footing on the housing ladder, the better.
This is the consensus across water cooler communities across the nation.
Which is a problem as there is no Plan B. All it takes is a known unknown. Like Sam Cane.
Haha classic
I was always pretty confident on my SA bet. Because of the All Black’s awful discipline and their flakey (although sometimes brilliant) number 10.
Discipline and Defence, the keys to tournament success. SA have those in spades.
oh yeah, and good kicking
You said it’s a good time for FHB to buy 18 months ago now many are down 20% the same will happen to next lot of FHB if they take your advice.
Many people may not know about the potential huge self serving financial interests and potential conflict of interests of some commenters here.
To all potential owner occupier buyers: CAVEAT EMPTOR.
Yes absolutely CN .....and on some of them, there should be a disclaimer that list which companies they have an "interest" in ???
Otherwise their comments are just free "advertorials" (fortunately, I would say at least 90% on this site can read through them though)
FYI, here is a comment seen on a First Homebuyers group in NZ:
"Are any other first home buyers out there majorly struggling like we are?
My hubby earns $130k a year and I am a stay at home mum with a new baby. Our mortgage is $560k. After mortgage, bills and food we have $0 left each week.
I'm starting to look at our options for escaping the madness of these mortgage repayments. Moving overseas, living in a caravan, etc etc. Is anyone else in the same boat?"
At the time of purchase, these owner occupier owners would likely have been overjoyed as they have a place that they own. Now however, due to that choice to buy and finance with their mortgage of $560,000, they are now in a position of financial misery. Many people don't know what they don't know and don't know the potential future consequences of their choice.
People are free to choose, however people are not free to choose the consequences of their choice.
Yeah that's a little scary. Just wait until they receive their letter from the insurance company increasing their premiums by $100 a month or so.
Makes you wonder just how much of the market is a ticking time bomb as per above couple.
Let's assume they had 20% deposit and just bought, that's a house worth $700k. Now think of the number of people in the same boat nationwide. Sadly many didn't think and work the numbers relative to their income to understand what life would look like under 7-8% interest rates and many simply want out, but they can;t or they realise a loss and pay for nothing while going back to renting. Others will soon, if not already (have friends in this scenario but they have made changes to accommodate the interest hike in the rollover), find higher paying work, take on a second job, get a boarder or two in to help share the cost, start a business, lower spending etc and will go on living with less and still appreciating that good food, good drink and good company as well as a roof over their heads are all they need to be fulfilled.
Now the problem is that people in quite skilled work, like the bloke making $130k/year here, are looking to go to Aussie to preserve their level of lifestyle.
Skills shortage here we come.
I’m in the skilled blue collar sort of workforce myself, and selling up and either moving to the South Island, or Australia is discussed “around the water cooler” every day at work.
I have several mates in similar positions. I'm waiting for the "hasta la vista" emails.
Those who are down 20% (very few and far between) would have failed to do due diligence on the property as something else would be severely wrong for that loss. Even then they would still be in their own home and with due diligence of a bank would not be facing a mortgagee sale (as they doing due diligence would know all markets go up and down in degrees). They would have secure housing that they can plan their future with, (work, schools, long term investment which amortizes the loan difference and any loss) and have the benefits that ownership gives such as being able to have children without facing a loss of their housing (often the case where landlords or flats limit number of occupants) they would be able to make changes (such as being able to decorate for their wellbeing, plant and grow vegetables and make additions/improvements to fix), they also would be able to have pets (of immense value to wellbeing) etc etc.
That you think unstable poorly managed housing stock that denies families basic living rights and by in large heavily discriminates and denies housing to over 25% of the population is a better solution is laughable. Especially with rents still rapidly outpacing the lower quartile incomes of the population and their ability to afford them. So much so that we have a massive deadly social housing crisis that breaches human rights on so many grounds it also leads directly to denial of basic medical care & deaths in far more cases than the number of households experiencing a 20% loss in imagined house value. That it is not your family being homeless and dead just means you could turn a blind eye to the severe denial of access and discrimination in the private rental market.
"Those who are down 20% (very few and far between) would have failed to do due diligence on the property as something else would be severely wrong for that loss."
The median house price in NZ is $785,000 currently. At the peak in Nov 2021, the median house price in NZ was $925,000, so the median house price has fallen 15% from its peak. The current median house price in NZ is back at levels last seen in February 2021.
The median house price falls have been larger in Auckland and Wellington.
Most of the buyers in 2021 - 2022 are likely seeing a market value of their residential dwelling fall below their purchase price. Given the levels of debt taken to finance their purchase, some may now even be in negative equity (meaning a 100% loss or more of their initial deposit) - remember that some buyers had 10% equity and 90% mortgages.
Given the conditions of the housing market at the time, many of the buyers of the 2021-2022 period may have chosen to ignore this in their due diligence - https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300238808/reserve-bank-govern…
"Even then they would still be in their own home and with due diligence of a bank would not be facing a mortgagee sale (as they doing due diligence would know all markets go up and down in degrees)."
For those highly leveraged buyers of 2021 - 2022, there will be an increasing the number of mortgagee sales. Many are currently trying to buy time to hold on, however many will face cashflow stress and be unable to hold on. Many will face significant losses on their deposits used to buy their residential property - for many, this will be their entire lifetime of hard earned savings.
Many of the banks used stress test mortgage rates in 2020-2021 period that were well below current mortgage interest rates.
Note "buyers" not FHB not even owner occupiers, most buyers actually also includes large scale investors and companies. But sure those poor highly leveraged investors having to tighten their belts, let me pull out the worlds smallest violin and get the homeless families to play it for you.
the peak-to-trough fall in national values to 13.2% or an average loss of $138,000.
But prices are still almost 25% higher than their March 2020 level, across the country.
Sounds like a ponzi scheme.
The sooner you invest, the better
"now's a very good time" - to pay $1200 a week for an average house for the next 30 years.
What a load a crap TTP (Taking The "Proverbial" ...again) .......that's just "sales talk" to bail investors out and get the FHB's to pick up their losses..... and you know it.
NZ has the highest amount of rent/mortgage payments, from disposable income in the OECD .... not that would matter to you, in fact you are probably salivating at that fact !
And I suppose you TRULY believe that interest rates will be down to 3% by June next year.....well mate, if they are, we will be in at least a recession, as inflation will just go through the roof. No one will want NZ government bonds, so we will have to borrow from overseas with ever decreasing v USD in value, kiwi pesos (currently 0.58) and believe me, having just come back from the States, you may as well just "double" the sticker price of anything there ! .....their inflation is as bad as NZ's.
Even with a household income significantly above the average (over 200k) there is no way mortgage rates that high are affordable. With a wage above 130k plus bonuses, and weekly housing costs below half that even our family is contemplating the fact we cannot afford bread for breakfast everyday. We now have "liquid breakfasts", skip even home made lunches, and dinners we can only afford 1 vegetable, and mostly plant protein even though with anemia, malnutrition and plant allergies we need more red meat and literally cannot stomach most plant proteins, (as in it gets expelled before digestion). We cannot afford transport outside for anything. Most kiwis do not get wages over 100k. Even 75k is a stretch for most the country.
No government will make the necessary changes for housing affordability, they literally cannot legislate for it. Just as no populace will opt for revolutions in this country and no revolution has shown improvements in living standards as the next lot to run a country usually make things much worse for decades before improvements. At best there is the option of rats leaving a sinking ship and we need this ship to sink for any significant changes to affordability to be made. That leaves us with a country that is predominantly those who are unable to leave stuck here and of those people, those who are under 65, usually are not the ones able to afford housing. Which means we then have a growing reliance on high levels of immigration and pension benefits to fund the home ownership rates dropping, significant loss of social mobility and loss of social cohesion leading to large negative societal outcomes. Rates of disability increase in these cases as less elective surgery is available & affordable as well. The cost of social housing balloons as it has done but also the wasted cost as much of the social housing funding is funneled to unnecessary consultants, middle managers and unscrupulous sub contractor companies that clip the ticket. The only reprieve to the growing financial and social debt to the country is the estimated lifespan normally comes down as the growing social ills start to avalanche.
In essence if you have not already got tickets out of NZ and worked out a tidy investment portfolio best to plan to leave now or invest in significantly higher stronger fences and security services. We are past the point people are stripping churches of pipes and railways of metal. We are past the point there is any effective response or action in cases of home invasion assaults and theft. If you have any family worth protecting and and home you want to live in you really need to up the security. Many friends have even their solar panels stolen as everything has a value to someone else even as decorative trash (which in one case they would have become). Unfortunately though those least able to afford insurance are robbed the most. So no matter if you can afford insurance those most at risk of theft will not be and NZ, as a whole, will pay for the added trauma and social harm.
Struggle street. Been there.
Where's the desperate theft happening? Not seeing any of that where we are, but we're in a quite affluent area.
Our family (2 adults 1 infant) has 100k+ income and we're also looking at options for higher paying work as cost of living has gone way up.
We buy high quality food, eat out once a fortnight for date night, go for inexpensive holidays domestically and have health insurance. Those are our discretionary luxuries.
Mitigating factors include community connections, membership with the local buying club, eating 20%+ plant protein, make food from scratch and freeze portions for meals, have a small vege patch, telecommute 50%, pre purchase fuel through Z sharetank or post via Farmsource, look after our clothes and buy second hand a lot, use Powershop for power, next to no debt, home office tax write-offs and have fixed housing costs. I don't know where else we would reasonably save more money without significantly reducing quality of life, so we're now focused on creating more value for others.
We're blessed to have what we have, but something has to change in the next 2 months for our financial situation to stay in the black.
I don't know where else we would reasonably save more money without significantly reducing quality of life, so we're now focused on creating more value for others.
That's a fantastic ethos to live by, well done.
So you can afford meat and can digest plant protein without anaphylaxis, how lucky are you. You have the land and ability to grow vegetables how lucky you are to have no genetic diseases that cause disability, you are full of luck and privilege. Let me remind you most people do not have the same opportunities. I say this because I am exceedingly lucky being in the top 10% of my demographic (over 12% of the population in my generation) to not only be allowed to complete school (when they wanted to deny my access to the library because of my disability), complete multiple university degrees, get work and work for over decades, can enter a home and can live in more than 2% of NZ housing and I am literally one of the luckiest ones. I literally had to fight for access to the school library and classes. How many legal fights did you get into with your school management to be allowed to study and complete the classes you not only could do but came in the top 5% of the country's test scores when allowed to do them.
Context matters not your homebrand inspiration porn. Even then looking back at tens of thousands of families I do not rub that privilege and luck in their faces by telling them to pull up their bootstraps, be born with different genetics and turn that being homeless and denial of medical care into a positive. Toxic positivity is far more harmful and gaslighting of families going through real trauma and disadvantage. I know what dumpster diving is like, I did it as a child, I did it as a teen, I had to do it at work because poverty and denial of access does not disappear. It is frankly embarrassing to be a NZder where we could have jobs over 100k and still be homeless for years because no landlord would rent to "cripples" seeing us engineers and medical workers as worse than criminals for deeming to be alive, claiming we would be better off dead. And we were the lucky ones. I fought for a home to buy when most banks would turn us "cripples" away. So I do not judge those same families who have it worse because as children under 10 they were afraid to argue and put forward legal cases for the right to an education and that they should have the same rights to work and housing.
Forgive me also for being bitter about being allergic to plant proteins. I am sick of it being shoved down my throat unwillingly only to bleed from both ends for days afterwards. F U
I hear you Pacifica. You've had it bloody tough, tougher than probably 99.5%+ of people, and most from this site may not even fathom the advantages they've had as that was their 'normal'.
Some of the ways you've been treated was disgusting.
I always value your comments which bring some perspective about how the rest of NZ may live outside of the ivory towers of privilege, and sounds like a perspective that my school mates shared where I grew up.
Genuinely curious, what has sustained you through the struggles?
I am very aware of the advantages I've had. Having a pakeha sounding name has helped. Good health and supportive parents and educators are massive. Intergenerational trauma has been a thing and I'm still working bloody hard to not pass it on to our kid.
I do take issue with the personal digs though.
My intent was constructivist to encourage. Apologies if it missed that mark with you. My comment was intended to be empathise with some of your situation and talk about the parts of our situations which have been similar and how I've been dealing with them so that you can feel seen and perhaps some of the tactics may be useful (or not).
It was not intended to be a comparison and I'm not going to be lead there either as I don't think that helps. It's not toxic positivity either. I'm not presuming that all the options I have are accessible for you. It's not meant to be inspiration.
So as a human to another human please take what helps and leave what doesn't ☺️
Thank you. I am sorry it has been hard and when something else bad happens I can get frustrated by the disparity in trying to make others aware of the context for the rest in my group, such a large percentage of the population but so limited in access most cannot even attend a protest or do petition mass marketing as so many families are too busy in the fight for survival, they have no time even for self care relaxation like gardening or a trip to a park. I have seen tragic stories of others and supported and advocated for them but many do die effectively young from these things.
Death of those we know is common and a constant risk to ourselves. Friends die younger then they should, family die younger then they should, advocates die younger all due to living conditions and poor medical access. But the incidental deaths of acquaintances, staff and people we support is also very common. Even when you have severe medical conditions not even food support is funded & food safe to eat without emergency level medical care needed can be 10x the price. Even the strongest advocates have died in their 40s, 30s, and 20s from lack of medical care funding, lack of access to the community, lack of access to employment, lack of access to safe food. Just very recently I found out recently a key advocate died, at 34 & my cousin at 23, another friend in their early 50s, my brother in law had his bowel permanently damaged, tied in a loop by a botched surgeon and the surgery to fix has been delayed just last week again (repeated delays over months and no one can live long like that). But this is happening silently across NZ as those deaths in our sector are labelled as "natural" inappropriately, not investigated, and not reported even when severe abuse, discrimination, physical attacks or medical neglect is well established. Hence why the Royal Commission's investigation was stopped at going any further past 2000. It is just that being blind to to the lack of equity & deaths is easier than accepting and planning to move forward to a system that does not prematurely kill people through bias. Ignorance is bliss but it does unfortunately lead to more deaths.
I guess black humour is a lifesaver. It both recognizes and accepts, but then does not propose solutions as most "solutions" generally will have failed to cover real life environments. The idea there is support or charity for those who need it, the others I have tried advocating for who are at significant denial of equity, is often a misnomer. I never experienced support for critical things, I don't expect it and my plans have lots of edge case eventualities. I am rarely surprised by financial movements as everything has a risk profile and steps to take. There is no support but there is bureaucracy. Set up to require months of form preparation for a multitude of ways for denial of support. Like a mobility park surround by stairs and a door you cannot enter (stairs & inaccessible doors incidentally met the electoral commission's definition of "accessible" so trying to vote was a lark). So picture The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy by Douglas Adams, or Terry Pratchet's Discworld, or Hanlon's Razor and Murphy's Laws (lifesavers in early childhood). E.g. in the cases where you cannot access education or employment it is far easier to get those things outside of the country and we did while still living here.
“But the plans were on display…”
“On display? I eventually had to go down to the cellar to find them.”
“That’s the display department.”
“With a flashlight.”
“Ah, well, the lights had probably gone.”
“So had the stairs.”
“But look, you found the notice, didn’t you?”
“Yes,” said Arthur, “yes I did. It was on display in the bottom of a locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying ‘Beware of the Leopard.”
-The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy by Douglas Adams
Also the follow up:
“There’s no point in acting surprised about it. All the planning charts and demolition orders have been on display at your local planning department in Alpha Centauri for 50 of your Earth years, so you’ve had plenty of time to lodge any formal complaint and it’s far too late to start making a fuss about it now. … What do you mean you’ve never been to Alpha Centauri? Oh, for heaven’s sake, mankind, it’s only four light years away, you know. I’m sorry, but if you can’t be bothered to take an interest in local affairs, that’s your own lookout. Energize the demolition beams.”
I realise on reflection that my comment and unsolicited advice may have sounded patronising.
How would you suggest someone change approach around sensitive topics like this to add value?
A picture and description I refer some support worker students and staff to is the following to succinctly switch statements to be accepting. It is immensely useful to use this practice in customer support as accepting and validating the experience of others (instead of the usual software engineer practice of "it worked for me"). It is very handy at helping both parties move towards a plan and can lead to fixing critical issues before they snowball to affect core clients or go to massive outages. So for both the health and engineering companies & industries it is very handy to know. In practice it is like a family member may have cancer that is untreatable and they are struggling to deal with day to day tasks. Instead of giving solutions they may have tried or been unable to access or telling them they must be positive, (both intended to help but not helpful). I would then in response to their statements accepting their experience is hard, asking if there was anything I could do, offering to pick up shopping or medication etc.
https://charliesthoughtsfortheday.wordpress.com/2021/01/29/toxic-positi…
It becomes more useful as we now have many coming out of covid with long covid. The accept & planning, (accept and commit ACT), health and wellbeing strategy is a million times more helpful for them than cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) which often instructs people that they must be wrong, their thinking is wrong and their experiences are all in their head regardless of physiological causes. Which if you did this for someone who is homeless it is really silly. As Stella Young puts it "You can’t turn a flight of stairs into a ramp by smiling at them". It benefits all of us to do as you are, taking a learning approach. Thank you that is amazing
Short Change Hero - The Heavy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAPD2X_pjAY This is an appropriate song to describe above far better, (sorry best short clip of song is with borderlands 2... well borderlands is a useful game if you have shingles on your face & eye nerves to keep hands busy and do pain management at night while listening to tech talks but it is very shoot & loot).
Actually they could legislate for it, its called rent control, and it could stop rents from adding to our inflation woes..
A DTI in place of/alongside the LVR on 2014 would've gone a long long way to fixing it.
Then Orr's madness came along - if the government won't hold him to account, the people should.
"A DTI in place of/alongside the LVR on 2014 would've gone a long long way to fixing it."
The extreme house price risks were preventable back in 2016 when the then Finance Minister did not give the RBNZ the tools they requested to address macroprudential risks.
RBNZ's DTI plans hit by Government changes | interest.co.nz
If a debt to income ratio of 5 was imposed back in 2017, then a significant amount of lending would not have been made (and house prices would have been less likely to have reached their record levels).
Sales falling going into a busier time (spring).
Must mean house prices will go up again!
/end sarcasm
The picture and price say it all.
If interest rates nudge higher to 10%, I would think that the share of home buyers might shift, less first home buyers, less NZ'ers buying, and a larger share of purchases of property by new immigrants, their money will be going a long way if the NZD keeps falling. Inventory will remain tight, and cash buyers will fight it out for the few properties available pushing prices ever higher. Inflation will stay elevated, rents higher, and investors still sit on the sidelines.
and a larger share of purchases of property by new immigrants, their money will be going a long way if the NZD keeps falling.
Only problem here. You don't have any data to explain migrant behavior. If NZD weakens relative to USD, what relevance does that have to a South Asian or Chinese migrant? You think they have suitcases stuffed to the brim with USD?
Actually the Yuan has been tearing higher against the NZD since July, and the singapore dollar has been gaining strength against the NZD since 2021.
Actually the Yuan has been tearing higher against the NZD since July, and the singapore dollar has been gaining strength against the NZD since 2021.
Lol. If HZ houses were trading instruments and I could margin trade, this might be relevant.
Immigrants are still FHB though. So they are included in FHB statistics. Hence the growing need for more immigrants as well, they keep the ponzi scheme alive and kicking.
I assume "average" refers to the mean. What was the median I wonder?
Meanwhile UK looks cheap:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/first-time-buyer-price-…
Its often a 1 bed flat though
Not.
2.95 bedrooms on average (from 2018, sorry):
The UK has the smallest new house size of any of the European countries (EU) at a paltry 72m2.
This is of course excluding the local pub as the main lounge area.
6 months old report
Yeah like since then it went 10% any direction.
"...but food prices surge to 45 year high"
UK is now bringing inflation to heel
Everywhere has cheap housing somewhere. Edinburgh saw huge listings through lockdowns as all the airbnb's were vacant and costing the owners so they sold up. Prices dropped sharply then picked right back up now with the investors back in force with tourism returning. Meanwhile locals have to pay through the nose due to so much of the apartments/tenement flats being airbnb'd.
ANZ home loan test rate at 9.1%
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/300998726/want-a-home-loan-prove…
Yes that’s about what I said 2-3 weeks ago (got ridiculed by one of the usual suspects at the time, lol)
Are you saying the scrolls are right? Not far for them to go until it’s the magical 10% mark
And behold, the Prophet spake of rates 10%+ by end of year, Guaranteed!
And tho they castigated Him and cast Him out to the wilderness, bade Him not to return, His faithful remain and remember, and wait...
10% may be a slight stretch but 9% isn't fully out of the question.
You would want to test yourself at a worst case much higher than that to take account of unexpected events as well e.g. needing additional capital or loan in case you needed additional accommodation (electrical fire causing a need to rehouse occupants and do repairs) or income changes (e.g. separation of owners, a death etc) or worldwide /nationwide shifts etc. What if the repayments you needed to make now were to more than double with an additional accommodation needed as well (leading to sometimes 3x-4x plus added expenses to set up).
Make plans for the worst case and usually you will do ok for all the ones less than that. Also never expect insurance to cover things like accidents,natural events, medical etc. It is easier to have insurance but relying on insurance paying out is a mistake. Many kiwis got caught out by flooding, leaky buildings etc. We cannot expect the government to provide housing support & payouts for each and every event (after their massive splurging they will have to be stooges in future to the nth degree). Much like how they supported those in Auckland and Hawke's Bay but not those affected around the rest of the country (reducing responsibility of poor performing councils and companies from covering all damage costs from their lack of maintenance). Much like how they supported only some business during covid but not many people affected by covid. Much like how after the GFC they only bailed out some bad investments but they don't for others, and their bailing out only some banks for bad management when the mood strikes them, but not the people who lost investments due to those banks etc. Inherently expecting the government or magic fairy insurance to save the day or even act fairly in the worst cases is a recipe for self harm.
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