Residential property values declined in 84% of New Zealand suburbs over the three months from June to September, with median values in some suburbs declining by more than $100,000.
Property data company CoreLogic tracks median property values across 955 suburbs throughout the country, which are updated on its online mapping the market tool.
The latest figures for this year showed that median values had declined in 803 (84%) of those suburbs over the three months from June to September, with main centres showing the biggest declines.
Median values declined in all suburbs of Tauranga and Dunedin, while 97% of suburbs had value declines in both Auckland and the Wellington Region, 92% of Christchurch's suburbs declined in value and 85% of Hamilton's suburbs posted falls.
Median values declined by at least 5% in 81 suburbs, mostly in Whangarei, Auckland, Horowhenua, Wellington and Dunedin.
Seven Auckland suburbs recorded median value declines of $100,000 or more, all of them upmarket suburbs where median values were at least $2 million.
Going against the trend, 152 suburbs (15.9%) across the country recorded increases in their median values over the three month period.
Most of those were small rural districts such as Ngatea in Hauraki, Patea in South Taranaki and Halfmoon Bay in Southland.
"The winter momentum was most certainly downwards across the country, with the main centres hit hardest," CoreLogic chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said.
"We've seen signs of weakness gathering pace this year as the lagged impact of rate rises, inflation and other economic influences catch up with the market.
"The direction the market has been moving in shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone," he said.
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120 Comments
It's always a perfect time to buy a house.
Looks like rural nz is playing it's part again and making NZ look good.... or bad, depending on your perspective
Going against the trend, 152 suburbs (15.9%) across the country recorded increases .... Most of those were small rural districts such as Ngatea in Hauraki, Patea in South Taranaki and Halfmoon Bay in Southland.
The property markets of rural areas pretty much always lag Auckland. Auckland won’t fall too much more but many regional centres will.
Hard to say how long and how strong the exodus of boomers from cities will go on. From what I can see of how much land is being bought up by retirement village companies, maybe a good 10 years.
Family homes might get cheaper though.
Auckland crash has only started this housing prices crash is going to be with us for a long time all indicators point to more fall. Interest rates climbing inflation way above target levels NZD tanking. Tiny 3 bedroom home in Auckland 10 x average wage couples income.
Auckland won’t fall too much more
Hi Housemouse, what factors do you reckon could stop the current decline in Auckland?
I'm guessing the OCR could go higher than expected, or at least as high as expected. If so, surely the housing market everywhere in NZ is in for more pain in the coming months, especially as the Auckland population stagnates or even continues slightly decreasing. Prices have been sinking lower every month and very few houses (less than 20%) on my watchlist (East Auckland) sold for above their 2021 CVs in the past July/August.
What do you think would put a stop to the bleeding?
Edited to add "less than 20%". For interest sake, the houses I watched sold for 6% under the 2021 CV on average (median and mean were practically the same). Some sales were for over 20% under the 2021 CV.
Speaking of rural... the latest CC profiled a young man who earned over 170k in Southland in his third year as a paua diver. He now owns two houses. He could probably retire in a year or two and create a job opening for Housemouse 🤔
Why do I need a job opening? I am doing well on the several things I pot away at (north of 200k annual income)
Then go to back whatever that is. I was talking about you, not to you
Funniest thing I have read here for a while. I always skip the housemouse comments. Verbosity comes to mind.
Seems that House Mouse is living rent free in HW2's head
🤣
freeloader
Nice!
Small weenie syndrome
News hasn’t reached those places yet….
Westpac Chief economist, who should be a part of real estate lobbyist is saying :
https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/property/129866429/of-course-the-guy-sel…
Definitely worse expecting will be bigger and unavoidable for him to go against the tribe.
I'm having a lot of trouble parsing that last sentence there.
Definitely worse expecting will be bigger......than disappointed worsers
The smoker you drink, the player you get
Thumbs up for Mr Walsh.
life's been good to me so far!
It's turning out to be an incredibly flaccid year for the property ponzi.
@brock_landers headlines like these are just fodder for the desperate DGMs. Out they come like ants!!
I used to think Kooti was the most racist person on these forums until you came along. Well done 👍.
@brock landers - do you know the meaning of a racist? 🤦🏻♂️ Or did my comment just trigger you, so you resort to pulling out the R card?
You never got around to elaborating on your views about it being "lucky" that NZ is being made "non-white". Such a shame.
@brock oh yes. You’re the one who believes that NZ should only allow immigrants from solely white countries because they speak good English. So basically no one else speaks good English or integrates well into NZ society or fills massive skill shortages. Is there a more polite word for just “stupid”? If you want to keep embarrassing yourself on these views of yours on this thread too, be my guest.
That's a huge mischaracterization of what was actually said, of course.
Unlike the exact words you used. There can be no confusion there.
Truly despicable.
Pot calling Kettle..come in Pot
Possibly a bit of a troll, but you have supported it by commenting vs just ignoring it.
Iceman you seem to have a problem with facts the housing market is crashing, why not relax go and see financial advisor if you are over leveraged better that just putting head in the sand and pretending house price’s are not on downward spiral.
@DTRH 😂 oh dear, you couldn’t be more wrong :) I’m just enjoying these comments around this “massive crash” we are in 😜 Admire you jumping in to help out your buddy though.
Iceman…more like Goose. So what’s your prediction for property prices? Double every 10 years? My daughter says laughy emoji faces are uncool and used by saddos. Just FYI
@tomjones - even I can’t predict the 10 years. I’m just laughing how people are forgetting that prices have just gone back to early last year, and have forgotten the massive increases before that. Love to see them getting excited about daily headlines and predictions that values will go down 70%. Ps - you don’t use emojis? Your daughter must think her dad is very cool indeed.
No the "massive increases before that" is the exact reason we think it's a bubble and now it's crashing. The massive gains of last year were just the final mania or delusional stage.
@Solid_Granite - is the same as the "bubbles' over the past 2 decades? I'm assuming "this time it's different". Yawn.
Iceman why don’t you explain how housing market is going to escape this downturn some area are already in crash territory. I will help you understand rates are raising inflation is high and far above target level, NZD is tanking, wars, floods, lockdowns in China, houses market problems in many countries. Financial markets in crash territory. You sound as if you have been brainwashed, wake up look around you.
@DTRH, before I even think about answering your question, prices are currently at early 2021 levels. To what year exactly are you suggesting prices will "crash" to? PS - Save the brainwashed comments - I can easily say the same thing about you lot who say the same thing during every dip. #perspective
DTHR, buy in the next 6-9 months, before prices start going north again.
He’s conveniently sidestepped my question. The ultimate doom gloomer himself can’t predict how bad this “crash” will be
Mate....if anyone is a doom and gloomer it's you.
There is nothing doom and gloom about this overpriced shit fest of a housing market over correcting for the good of our social fabric. Yep some people will, unfortunately, be burnt (FHB's). However there are going to be many of those atypical greedy, spruiking 'investors' who were buying up large based on the premise prices only go up and were 'only ever acting altruistically for the good of those poor people who can't or don't want to buy'....... f**k em.
We're not done with interest rate rises, so wait till the frost turns to ice
Bingo. As the ball keeps rolling so will the percentage drop each quarter. NZ rate rises are dependent on US Fed rate rises. They have to continue to move to account for export exchange rates remaining competitive.
For a marvellous piece of anecdotal evidence of Auckland's property price slide look no further than a house near us at 30A Rowan Road, Epsom:
With a CV of $2.550mil in June 21, it recently sold for $1.335m. Only a 47% decline in the space of one year!
It was a deceased estate - it's always the ones that must sell that'll meet the market and send prices into a spiral.
Why dont you be honest and say it as it is...it was likely a leaky plaster home. Notice how there are no photos of the outside? I suppose whatever fits your agenda tho eh?
Yep.
CVs are a bit of a joke to be honest. They often miss factors pretty fundamental to value.
Had a look at Photos - 1970's build and ugly as hell...(no agenda)
Looks to be an "original condition" '70s weatherboard and tile, so I suspect it needs a decent overhaul. A good buy, but it's only juuuuust Epsom.
maybe it was recently subdivided?
It appears to have sold for 531k in 2001 so a price of 1.335M this year would appear to quite a bargain. I would have thought it would go for 2M or more being a full section and older house. Not DGZ but still, yes, if correct, this is a bargain.
This $100000 fall in value is in just last three months and the fall has started from November 2021 or January 2022 peak.
I wonder how much money 7 houses Luxon has lost so far?
There must be many landlords/property hoarders who are losing hundreds of thousands of dollars a month at this point.
Must be v. tough on the psychology of those who have constructed a persona and personal value system centered around hoarding real estate and "getting ahead" and being "more successful" than others. A real fall from the old perch.
How many houses does ardern and co own ? The partner does tv shows about property development, the sister sells waikato real estate and one of the staffers in her office went on to become an REA in Wellywood. Will ardern join bayleys and Paula after she is rolled
According to many she has a seat reserved at the UN
That is probably to mislead you as property is in the blood. Just look at her statements about property prices and the way she is moving up the property ladder.
The answer is one. The PM owns one house. The one she lives in.
Beach house in gizzy and there are rumours of a farm
Interesting how the Gisborne property flies under the radar, it's not hard to find with some basic lateral thinking. Maybe that's expecting too much of the MSM these days.
Interesting how easy it is to find out the correct information. Spoiler: You are both, not correct.
Here is the register of "Pecuniary and Other Specified Interests of Members of Parliament: Summary of annual returns as at 31 January 2022"
Rt Hon Jacinda Ardern (Labour, Mt Albert) - Real property: 1x Family home – Mt Albert electorate,
Unless you are alleging the Prime minister has lied on her annual returns? Or purchased said "Beach house" or "Farm" this year? Or perhaps there is a complex web of trusts or shell companies she hasn't declared? Are they owned by Clark's mistress the nanny? We would all love to know so please enlighten us with your investigations.
She declares what she legally has to. The fact her partner and family have trusts with multiple properties, doesn't legally matter is she is not currently a beneficiary of said trust. Of course once she leaves parliament...
How long a bow do you want to draw? Because that's really stretching it.
That situation could, and I'm sure does, apply to many MPs. It doesn't seem to stop them from accumulating properties and interests in trusts under their own names.
I've clearly offended you.
Ms Ardern has her name on the legal title of one property. Mr Gayford (last I read) also owns a property, in Gisborne. Ms Ardern is married to Mr Gayford. So while Ms Ardern's return meets the legal definition required, it's obfuscation of the true picture.
For what it's worth, I know nothing about a farm rumour. I've also responded to the question about David Seymour below, identifying him as the beneficiary of multiple property-owning trusts. You've also responded to the question, identifying an additional property - my info was old and I couldn't be bothered digging further.
It's possible my information regarding Mr Gayford's ownership of a Gisborne property is out of date as well. Happy to be corrected, although there's no need for such vitriol.
ETA: We've also both made the point that there will be more than one MP, from more than one party, who are beneficiaries of trusts. I am not the enemy you seek.
Disclaimer: I do not and have never held an affiliation to any political party, and I hold no great leaning towards nor away from any party. I voted Labour last election. I have briefly talked to one Labour MP in a social environment, twice.
Yours?
That was not a dig at you personally. And I was not replying to you re: Seymour.
The only thing that offends me is the peddling of information here that is factually (and easily provable) incorrect. There's plenty of other social media that appreciates rumour and innuendo. It should be called out and corrected immediately. I provided the correct information.
Mr Gayford may very well own a property somewhere solely under his own name, I can't find anything to prove that, but it absolutely could be the case. Regardless, Jacinda Ardern is not married to Clark Gayford.
Of course as you've pointed out it's also possible that many MPs also have partners / wives / husbands that own other properties under their own name... so it's not really relevant anyway unless there is some sort of deliberate plan here to obscure her 'ownership'.
Disclaimer: I do not and have never held an affiliation to any political party. I lean more left than right. Both major parties are terrible. I voted TOP last election and the election before.
You are absolutely correct - Ms Ardern is not married to Mr Gayford, point conceded. They have been engaged since 2019 but did not get married last year due to Covid concerns.
It is my (amateur) understanding that their domestic situation would place them at least under a legal definition of a de facto relationship, with all that entails. I honestly do not invest any effort in the marital status of MPs, I prefer to assess them on character and performance. My voting preferences for next election are therefore undecided.
Hi HW2,
You would know, my friend, since you started the rumours.
TTP
Probably more than rumours and saucy tittle-tattle, I got it from a good source 😉
Does that help you...
Have heard that rumour as well but was of a conspiratorial nature because of who supposedly bought it. Maybe your source is some questionable internet forums?
“The answer is one. The PM owns one house. The one she lives in.”
One under her name, the rest under family trust and other entities.
That is incorrect. I've posted the link to the 2022 "Register of Pecuniary and Other Specified Interests of Members of Parliament: Summary of annual returns as at 31 January 2022" above. If she was a beneficiary it needs to be declared like all other MPs do. Other members of my family own property, that doesn't mean it is mine.
Adern and co aren't planning to reinstate interest deductibility for residential investors, repeal the Brightline extension and open the floodgates to migrants of any skill level.
They probably won't care too much unless their ability to service the debt starts getting affected.
Since we're talking about this, anybody know how many David Seymour has? I'm genuinely want to know.
As of April last year he was the beneficiary of trusts that own three properties. I'm sure he's not alone in this type of arrangement.
David Seymour (ACT, Epsom)
Beneficial interests in, and trusteeships of, trusts:
BH & VA Seymour Family Trust (beneficiary), Beachcomber Trust (beneficiary), Frere Trust (beneficiary)
Real property:
Residential home (as discretionary beneficiary of trust) – Whangārei
Holiday home (as discretionary beneficiary of trust) – Northland J.
Section (as discretionary beneficiary of trust) – Whangārei
Residential home (as beneficiary of trust) – Auckland
@fitzgerald “A real fall from the old perch” Classic comment by DGms who forget how high the perch was. If I need to spell it out AGAIN, prices have just gone back to early last year if you take your blinkers off. And before early last year, prices rose a shit ton. Any investor who isn’t a flipper is well cognizant of this and calm. Always a good giggle reading such comments. So enjoy your 2 mins of rejoicing in the “crash”
"Cognizant" the word of choice of those who think it will make them sound more clever than they actually are
@agnostium Thank you. Is that taken straight out of your dictionary of idiotism? Or is it from your rear end? ;-)
Yes, I agree, the events and wording need to be taken into context.
So if the correct definition is, 'prices rose a shit ton,' the correct wording to describe the opposite would be 'prices have fallen a shit ton,' rather than using that highly emotive and triggering word, 'a crash.'
Hey Iceman, just some personal views after observing how you comment here, I don't think you will gain much of credibility if you just keep calling others DGMs here. Your comments start sounding more like ranting now. Also, those so called "DGM comments" that you claimed here are approved accurate based on where housing price is heading this year. Obviously, the 70% drop is another story, but I cannot recall anyone mentioned about 70% here. Maybe it's the shoulder devil (DGM) keep telling you 70%...70%...70%...?
I've brought up Ireland's crash as an example of possibilities. It was inferred by others that I was suggesting that NZ was going to crash 70%. I'm fully aware NZ is not Ireland. However, with the 3 month rate of falls in NZ exceeding IE's 1st year, and our median multiple peaking at a similar height, I think it would be foolish to rule it out.
Ireland's median multiple fell to 2.8 by the time they hit the bottom. NZ's peaked at 9, a fall of 65% puts us at just over a 3 median multiple.
I have openly stated that NZ prices have up to 50% non-value added costs, ie that amount of cost could be removed without affecting the amenity value if the Govt enacted policies that allowed those costs to be removed, or not needed to be added in the first place.
That does not mean prices will fall that much, but it is easier for prices to fall where the gains in the first place are made up of non-tangibles.
@company of heroes - I’m not actually here to gain credibility from random people on the internet, I’d hope others are not here for that too. I’ll also tell you what sounds like ranting - majority of people on here constantly talking about the market crashing every time there is a correction and how “This time it’s different” and how this time it’s like “Ireland” (people seem to be obsessed with the latter)
Rantception.
Man takes to public forum to rant about people ranting on public forum
Bottom feeders liking bottom feeders comments
The reason this time is different is because mortgage rates have more than doubled in a short space of time. One might argue that a correlation is not a causation, but it's very coincidental that the last 30 or so years of house price gains happened along side 30 years of falling interest rates. And conversely, prices are falling as interest rates go up. Very peculiar.
Exactly. If the long term trend in interest rates has bottomed out, the long-standing 'rules' around house prices doubling every X years will collapse. This has been the wind in investor's sails for decades, but without rates heading negative in the next few years, the trend in house prices cannot continue.
If we are looking at a long term rising trend in interest rates, then you would have to be very brave to go all in on property.
As powerupkiwi said the other day, “I’ve only fallen past two rungs. So what? I was here a few seconds ago.” - says man in free-fall from ladder.
@fitzgerald sound like a fool enjoying someone elses “loss” Then again, this is a small dent in everyone’s equity who’ve been in property for long term. You don’t seriously believe Luxon or John key are up all night worrying about “ohhhh the values of my properties are going down” 🤦🏻♂️
Real Estate lobbying in full swing to brainwash - got this email/invitation from big real estate company ( assume sent to each and everyone on their data) to listen to lobbyist ....sorry economist and the agenda from the brief is to convince, why now house prices have bottomed out.....
Sub : You're invited to an evening with Tony Alexander, Economist
What a start to spring. We have had an amazing response to our early spring listings, as well as being busy with pre-settlement inspections, photography for upcoming listings and we're proud to be hosting Tony Alexander in ...................
An evening with Tony Alexander, economics speaker and writer, covering topics such as why mortgage rates have peaked, what the current influences are within the market, and why the forces that limit house prices have declined. Our charity event is free to enter, you do need to book space, as this event is limited numbers......
Property is big picture.....................!
We welcome ...........
Spruik spruik spruik spruik spruik spruik spruik spruik spruik spruik spruik spruik….
Assuming you've unsubscribed from their emails now or do you like getting triggered on the regular?
real estate companies giving financial advice now
& spiritual guidance.....come listen to the king of kings about house prices
just give us your savings and sign this bit of paper that tells us how much you owe us...and we promise the world of riches
bring on the royal commission to uncover all the trickery when this goes bang
I can now see why they used to burn the witches...
Tony will explain why mortgage rates have peaked 😆😅🤣😂.
Roll up, roll up, to the clown show.
Maybe we need a financial services act for the real estate industry.
I'm not sure Tony is the first place I'd go to get unbiased advice on house prices.
If I needed to style a good comb-over though...
More indications this week of a buyers market at the Barfoot auctions.
A unit in Glenfield sold for 712.5k. Interestingly the property went on the market at 650k so if no more bids it would have gone for that. A lot of small bids. It goes to show that you can sell if your price is reasonable.
Another 2 bedroom on the North Shore sold for 608k, RV 760k QV estimate 800k!(on the market at 600k)
A stand alone too which usually gets more.
A house sold on the North Shore for 1322k. Checking its sales history it appears the vendors bought it for 1370k in Nov 2020.
The less desirable areas of the shore are either not selling or are needing to come in with good discounts. Places like Glenfield were so over priced, they're going to be hit hardest...
Undoubtedly North Shore is over-valued but what do you have against Glenfield? OK it isn't as posh, trendy and restaurant rich like Birkenhead and it is better and safer than Northcote either before or after the current knock down and rebuild. It's location is better for getting places than other North Shore suburbs. Has a pleasant, diverse and family sized mall with undercover parking. One of the best libraries too. The only negative I can find is the schools rely on education rather than reputation.
If you listed the top 5 least desirable suburbs of the Northshore what would they be & in order?
1. Beach Haven (non-coastal a.k.a. the rough side)
2. Northcote (between Lake Road and College Road)
3. Glenfield North
4. Unsworth Heights
5. Birkdale (north east of the Birkdale Road and Eskdale Road roundabout)
What about Albania and the S'nook?
It’s all in the eye of the beholder. I would say the further from the city the worse it is, especially as traffic is terrible on the shore.
Traffics terrible anywhere in Auckland...
Auckland does have its good days for traffic .... like public hols and very early morning like 1am to 5am. The body isn't too keen to start work at those times
Its the Tom Petty song ..."free fallin".
Auck and Welly leading the charge, which is no surprise as the stupidity of temporary cheap debt brought out the worst of the greedy speculator in both locations. Regions always always follow both, and that is a direct quote from TA the Captain of spruik. Offered 2015 price on a house last week, and held back laughter at the bluff and bluster from the agent citing sales from last year (the year of peak stupidity).
Ok then... I can wait. BTW, hows that lack of income going...?
Are the prices dropping as much as is thrown around? If you whack on the new interest rates...probably not unless you already have the liquidity...might still be some serious give required before it can reasonably be claimed they are dropping to those relying on mortgages...Clear winners as always are the lenders. Scratch out 2023 too many folk expecting a quick upswing...environments much too tight for that , Hard too see that trade deficit shrinking when folk will be yearning for the cheap fix .Plenty of folk will be counting on a new political direction ,problem the newbies will have is they will inherit a mountain of debt. Importing workers and wealth might have a negligible affect also given that most foreigners are riding the same train presently. Alcohol sales volumes will swing up I expect....lol
The house prices are NOT going down unless you are currently a cashed up buyer and sold many months ago now. My mother is still looking to buy and needs to get her A into G if she intends buying the dip.
I’m interested how you’ve arrived at that conclusion given the month on month drops we are experiencing currently according to the HPI. What data sets are you using that support your view?
You are correct that the clear winners of leveraged stupidity is the banks. This is fully supported by their profits exiting NZ.
Its still an orderly Mexican standoff...... the ugliness of disorderly is likely IMHO in the 2nd Q of next year.... you have to be quick now to get a property onto market before xmas, as 3 week auctions now do not work.... so I would expect quite some stock to list before xmas, around March-June sellers will need to get very realistic to get a sale. There are still only tire kickers about.
quite a lot of petty nastiness on this forum today. come guys, lets clean it up a bit. this is great place to gauge the mood of society. its not the place to attack differing view points. we need people to disagree, but let's do it with respect and intellect
Fair point. Sorry Iceman.
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