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Floating mortgage rates see a huge surge in popularity, with over $3.5 billion of lending done at floating rates in November, according to new RBNZ figures

Personal Finance / analysis
Floating mortgage rates see a huge surge in popularity, with over $3.5 billion of lending done at floating rates in November, according to new RBNZ figures
mortgagerf9
Source: 123rf.com

Floating mortgages surged in popularity in November, according to latest Reserve Bank monthly figures.

Of the $7.556 billion worth of new mortgages taken out in November, some $3.579 billion was on floating rates. That's 47.4% of the total on floating - and its very much the highest percentage on floating since this set of RBNZ figures began being published.

The RBNZ's C71 data series, which was introduced only fairly recently and has data going back to 2021, differs from other monthly series in that it shows mortgage figures for after the mortgage has been uplifted (while other series highlight mortgage figures for when the mortgage has been committed to). (The RBNZ summary of the latest data is here.)

The C71 data therefore shows the flow of the money and into what rates as and when it happens.

And the latest figures, for November, show that the trend of going for shorter and shorter mortgage terms, very visible since the start of 2024, has now reached its ultimate point, with people starting to move away from fixed terms altogether in favour of - for now - floating rates.

The Reserve Bank started cutting the Official Cash Rate in August 2024 and this has fallen from 5.5% to 4.25%, with another 50 basis point cut widely expected next month. Mortgage rate falls actually started before the OCR cuts.

Clearly, mortgage holders are looking for further falls - hence the sudden surge in interest for floating rates, which according to separate RBNZ stats on average monthly mortgage rates, are more than 75 basis points higher than the shorter term fixed rates.

Of the $5.319 billion of mortgage money taken out by owner-occupiers in November, $2.421 billion was on floating. That's 45.5% of the total, up from 27% in October, and 20.3% in September.

The investors have gone even more the floating way, with over half the money borrowed by investors in November on floating rates.

Floating mortgage rates became very popular for a time after the Global Financial Crisis, but in the past 10 years or so the preference has been very much for fixed rates. So, how long the new floating fashion will last for will be interesting to see. 

The RBNZ reports that for the owner occupiers, the share of loans on floating and short-term fixed rates either for a year or of shorter duration represented 93.4% of new lending in November. 

In November 99.0% of investor new lending was on floating or at fixed rates of two years or shorter duration.

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18 Comments

People are incredibly optimistic when they probably shouldn't be.

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8

swap rates and OCR forecasts are all on a downward trend.

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5

Aren't the longer dated swaps going up now?

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4

hard to say, 5 years + yeah, people don't float their mortgage rates based of long term expectations though.

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2

5+ year swaps are irrelevant to residential mortgage rates.  1 & 2 year swaps are still heading down.

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2

Given there is such a premium for floating in NZ, wouldn't most of these people probably been better off on a 6mth fixed?

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6

yea i do wonder the reasoning behind it, especially the large percentage of people doing it.

The obvious thing to me is the expectation of a decrease soon? or being able to react to the change when it happens.

possibly waiting for the CPI figures, seems a bit long to wait for the OCR, the current OCR prediction for feb wouldn't change interest rates enough to float for 4months?

a low inflation figure on the other hand could change things quite a bit.

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0

This is precisely why I favour 6 months rate.  Because of the high uncertainty in NZ and international financial matters, floating is best, so one can react quickly to the changing situation.  But it's too expensive.  The 6 months rates are the next best thing.

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4

6 month is expensive too though. 0.4% difference between 6 month and a year when I recently fixed. You need a big decrease in that 6 months to justify it. 

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1

Its probably all the people planning to sell up in 2025.

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7

good point. i did notice a big decrease in listing leading to the end of 2024, i assumed a whole lot would come back in early 2025.

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4

Those wanting to head to left wing Aus now that we have right wing NZ?

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1

A very large move towards floating rates means many borrowers expect lower rates soon.

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2

people following mortgage broker advise.

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3

Yes, unfortunately. 

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1

I use a broker because I’m too busy/can’t be bothered liaising with a bank and going through their stupid disclaimers every single time. The broker cuts that out and I make them work for their commission because I don’t accept poor advice. I am very firm and very clear about my intentions making them effectively a secretary to turn my intentions into actions.

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0

Yeah. In November.

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0

Nothing wrong with the floating but it could be crunch time next month and time to fix. 

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1