The cost of living for the average New Zealand household rose 5.4% in the year to the June quarter, according to Statistics NZ.
These figures come from Statistics NZ's Household Living-costs Price Indexes (HLPIs). Unlike the Consumers Price Index (CPI), the HLPIs include interest payments.
Each quarter, the HLPIs track how inflation impacts 13 different household groups, as well as an all-households group, also known as the average household.
In contrast, the CPI measures inflation's effect on New Zealand as a whole.
“Mortgage interest payments remain high and continue to make a significant contribution to living costs for many households,” Statistics NZ consumer prices manager James Mitchell says.
Interest payments on debt jumped 26.7% in the June quarter. This figure has edged down slightly from the two previous quarters but is still very high.
Across the past two quarters, average interest payments were up 28% in the 12 months to March, and in the year to December 2023, average households faced a 31% increase.
Insurance costs were up 18% in June, from 17.9% in March. Private transport supplies and services rose 13% in the June quarter, a jump from 9.6% three months earlier.
The HLPIs annual increase of 5.4% for the year ending in June was down from 6.2% for the 12 months to March. However, this is still higher than the June quarter's annual CPI inflation rate of 3.3%.
Mitchell says this is the last quarter that will see the impact of council rates increases households experienced in the second half of 2023.
Property rates and related services make up 7.7% of expenditure for superannuitant households compared with 4.6% for the average household.
“On an annual basis, these rates increases are still a significant driver of inflation for superannuitant households,” Mitchell says.
The most recent high in average household living costs was the 8.2% rise recorded in the 12 months to the December 2022 quarter. The CPI peaked at 7.3% in the June 2022 quarter.
Stats NZ says that the CPI and HLPIs measures serve different purposes. The CPI is primarily used for monetary policy, while the HLPIs offer insights into the cost of living for various household groups.
66 Comments
We’re stuck in the vice-like grip of sharply rising costs - and sharply falling living standards……..
On top of this comes the public health service, social services, education, defence and policing (to name just a few) all being robbed of the resources to perform adequately - despite excellent, dedicated staff working under huge pressure.
It’s not good enough.
TTP
There's certainly a lot less money in the streets - it's getting pretty quiet out there. It's certainly a good time to be a saving renter. FHB's are getting the luxury of choice, if they have accumulated large deposits.. Like others here, I feel prices are still way too high and have further to fall though...
No way will they lower rates as Inflation is going up quickly and the NZD is tumbling creating more inflation,looks like we could be in for huge downturn, unfortunately many are already in negative equity have seen this playbook before house prices will tumble very quickly as average wage couples just cannot afford to purchase a small 3 bedroom house in many areas
RP, prices are increasing in Christchurch.
Watched an auction yesterday and it went for far more than I ever thought.
Purchased one recently in the area which is significantly better snd significantly cheaper.
Nothing surer is that when the interest rates drop the market prices are going up further.
In this environment, I think even bonds will do better than property, and for a lot less hassle and risk. My shares are up about 9% so far in July, still plenty of movement to be had on some NZX shares I think, and there's always some tempting resource companies on the ASX. If you look further afield, there will be a whole world of opportunities.
Solid homes in any reasonably good location is going to increase in value in any condition.
The thing is that the townhouse building is grossly overdone and that is the market that will suffer,
interest rates will come down and most people want to own their own home.
There are several ways to own your own and there are opportunities always.
Hi The Man3,
It's possible that the trough of the current housing cycle is now close - but we'll wait and see.
I agree with you that when interest rates drop, we can expect market prices to increase......
Notably, however, there's one thing even surer...... Whatever happens to interest rates or anything else, Retired-Poppy will always tell us that the housing market is crashing - or about to crash. Retired-Poppy has never predicted, or even acknowledged, a market upswing in all the years he's been crusading here.
Conspicuously and ominously, Retired-Poppy has no understanding, whatsoever, of housing market cycles. Or, if her does, he ignores them and pretends they don't exist.
TTP
by tothepoint | 3rd Sep 21, 8:39pm - "NZ house prices are increasing - on a sustainable long-term trajectory"
No understanding of housing cycles - huh? Enough said 😆🤣
Hi Retired-Poppy,
For sure, house prices are destined to increase on a sustainable long-term trajectory - as they've done over the decades (for as long as records have been kept).
The chronic shortage of housing combined with NZ's desirability, globally, as a country to reside provide potent reasons why home ownership/investment here will carry on and prosper......
Naturally, housing cycles will continue, as determined by a host of shorter-term factors. But, inevitably, the long-term trajectory remains positive.
Further, added to capital appreciation is the yield (rental return) from housing - as well as the wide-ranging non-financial/intangible benefits. Yield is basic to any analysis and a key factor in property purchase decisions...... Remarkably, however, Retired-Poppy refuses to acknowledge yield - and the intangibles....... Clearly, he avoids any mention of them whatsoever because, as the astute know, they totally undermine his flawed crusade.
TTP
Retired Poppy like everyone else will have their ideas about investing.
Some people like to go the boring safe way like Term Deposits which really isnt an investment as by the time you are taxed doesnt make anything with inflation, but that suits RP.
The people that get ahead financially are the ones that actually buy well, improve or some upside and leverage and go again.
The thing is after you have bought well and done a few deals as you sill know it gets easier as time goes on.
I would be bored with money on TD I much prefer the enjoyment of property investment
TM3, we have done well financially over the years with shares in our earlier years but within the last decade lost appetite for risk. We have always owned TD's however. TD's suit some and not others. Our Kiwisavers are more diversified as we are still in our 50s. To some, TD's are boring, lazy, un-sophisticated or whatever - but what matters is it suits our risk profile as we are comfortable. We now earn a substantial income from fixed interest that has covered our unique cost of living increases several times over so we were largely unaffected. We also own our home outright and even though we could, have no interest in becoming Landlords whatsoever. We have always lived within our means however we probably spend more freely these days than we did in our earlier years!
House price appreciation is of no concern to us. You are entirely correct that at some point house price appreciation will resume however I don't think it will happen quickly or at least as soon as people think as other factors such as employment security are at play. That's my opinion.
Apparently Luxon is out on a photo op "walking the beat" with police today. Hopefully a journo will ask what he's going to do to stem the flow of NZ cops moving to Aussie for better pay and conditions (now that arbitration with the police assn is over). But I'm not holding my breath that question will be asked.
If we went back to locking up all the criminals we wouldnt need as many police on the streets. How nobody puts 2 + 2 together to get 4 is beyond me.
Here's the latest "victim" that needs "saving" from prison despite an "extensive 17 year history of violent offending".
https://www.thepress.co.nz/nz-news/350355534/parole-breach-man-who-kill…
- New rates bill today. 11.1% increase, less than last year, but still high, next years will be interesting as we move to metered water charged outside of rates.
- All insurances were around 30%
- Power is fixed until April. But that is usually ~10%
- Food inflation this year is not huge, but is still 10-15% more than Covid.
- Petrol is the only thing cheaper than 3 years ago. But we saved more dropping to a single car and increasing our walking.
So yeah, I can see why people moan about living costs.
New, was 72990, now 37590 new Leaf
https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/motors/cars/nissan/leaf/listing/4820703778?…
New 63990 now new 30590
https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/motors/cars/nissan/leaf/listing/4824514912?…
Autopilot is a suite of advanced driver assistance features that are intended to make driving safer and less stressful. None of these features make Model 3 fully autonomous or replace you as the driver. Autopilot features come standard with all new Tesla vehicles.
Always remember that Full Self-Driving (Supervised) does not make Model 3 autonomous and requires a fully attentive driver who is ready to take immediate action at all times. While Full Self-Driving (Supervised) is engaged, you must monitor your surroundings and other road users at all times.
So yeah, nah. And thats from the US manual, not the NZ one. They still haven't quite got the wipers right yet either. And its an USD $8000 upgrade, or a $100/month subscritption, not standard.
I have had it in other cities/countries. But never been in place while it was implemented so it will be interesting to see the cost changes relative to rates.
As with all things NPDC. Expect incompetence, then facepalm when you realise they failed to meet even the worst expectations.
Yip.
We got debt drunk before the pandemic, started drinking huge debt shots during it... and now we have the debt hangover from hell... where everyone realizes the solution cannot be hair of the dog (making debt cheap again).
We have been living above our means for a long time. NZ is a small country in the middle of nowhere with minimal natural resources and not much going for it except tourism and some farming..... once we accept our standard of living needs to be lower than that of eg Singapore ( trade nation) and Oz (lots of natural resources) we can relax. And accept we have to pay the piper for our debts... and we have to lower our standard of living expectations. Focus on fixing duopolies and bank competition and finding innovative export opportunities.
House prices and rents must be lowered to attract the skills we need from overseas to run our country.
Similarly local govt rates need to fall, and our expectation for what they can deliver needs to fall.
Wow…that’s some real reach for the stars stuff there eh OldSkool…”lower our standard of living expectations”…a mantra to really sell it to all those “skills we need from overseas to run our country” 🤦🏻♂️
Make lending more affordable, as shown in this article the higher costs of lending is inflationary itself, use tools well like DTI/LVR to cap house price increases…or yeah, raise interest rates to discourage the “drinking of huge debt shots” & watch NZ just keeping getting worse 🤷🏻♂️
i wouldnt raise ocr.
if it were me i would force the economy to change...
1. keep DTI, implement a low CGT with a gradual increae over 10 years - pre determined, and policies todiscourage property investment.
1b. some helicopter money to the lowest paid earners and people below a certain threshold and retirees. like a UBI for one year. un like lowering the ocr which has a crappy impact on the economy - those people they will spend it quickly.. and its easy and fast to adapt based on inflation
2. drop oc maybe .25 x 2 and watch house prices. if they start to lift then slow the pace or up it again, again prewarn people
3. implement a range of policies aimed to attract and retain skilled people in their 20s and 30s.
4. a range of policies to encourage people to start and grow export led businesses
Fair play, you have some real good points there, I’d hate to see a CGT on the family home but definitely on investment properties, helicopter money is a good way to get money moving about although maybe not all retiree's, some are doing it tough in retirement & it’s heartbreaking, some, particularly those who have sold investment property/ies for huge profits maybe could be means tested.
I would like to see more affordable lending with restrictive DTI/LVR, some relief for people whose mortgage is for the family home would be good, maybe more FHB’s could buy with the lower prices if rates where more affordable & obviously a lot businesses are bleeding out so some extra disposable income to spread about is needed…yes, as a nation we’ve made our bed I know, & it would be great if mortgages were for homes, not jetskies & rangers, I’ve got no issue with professional developers adding good homes to the housing stock…however folks trying to make a quick/slick buck can take their medicine I agree…but some balance is needed to turn the ship around…I’m just not sure cold turkey is the best approach or 🛬🔥
Seems like we (and most other places) are on an entirely different trajectory to the US. They have shitloads of problems but the enduring resilience of the economic powerhouse they are not to mention reserve currency status. God Help NZ, we’re in a spot of trouble to say the least.
I'm not sure you're right when you say 'most other places'.
Canada is well into their easing cycle (and have acknowledged, unlike our non-too-bright RBNZ, that holding interest rates high is actually fueling inflation). Most of Europe's boats have already righted themselves (if indeed they ever needed to ... some did not due to sager economic policy).
If raising rates causes inflation, will dropping rates now risk the economy rapidly tumbling into a deflationary recession (or even depression)?
ie if the only thing stopping the CPI from going negative is interest expense (that is being passed onto consumer in the form of higher cost of goods and services), won’t dropping interest rates amplify the probable incoming deflationary recession?
It's an interesting thought experiment, isn't it? But we live in a real world where nature seeks equilibriums and we get pulled towards them.
Thus what may, or may not, happen at the edges of our real world are likely to be very fleeting. I can imagine a flash trade where I become the richest person in the world by betting on the outcome of a sudden and extreme, but harmless, bout of deflation that hits us without warning.
Lots of functions in that equation - all pulling different ways. Lower interest rates will quickly allow businesses to drop prices in the hope of selling more stuff and getting some economy of scale back.
However, in aggregate, it could easily be a year after rate cuts before households see extra disposable income from lower mortgage costs. We will need an OCR of around 3 before we see the average yield on mortgages come down (still going up 7 basis points a month - currently at 6.19%).
Also important to note that we got used to 10 years plus of real wage growth and that's not looking likely for a while.
Ultimately though I don't see deflation - we have too many 'only rachets up' mechanisms in the economy (min wage, rates, insurance, tobacco tax, energy costs etc), and, if our currency weakens, we will be importing inflation (for a change). Of course, even without deflation, we are still cooking up the perfect recipe for a prolonged recession.
Here's the real wage growth chart.
K.W. "And now we have a collapsing NZ$ so that tradeable inflation starts going up again, while non-tradeable inflation is still 5.4%. And people are expecting rate cuts?"
<black humor>
We voted in a new government to borrow billions to give us all tax cuts.
Geez. Some people are such whiners.
</black humor>
Yip and imagine dropping rates now…it will cause the arse to fall completely out of the CPI so the RBNZ will face a deflationary recession/depression and each drop of interest rates (in the short term 12-24 months) could well amplify the feedback loop (rates drop, interest expense drop, prices drop).
Unless of course businesses decide to keep raising prices even though their interest expense costs are dropping - at which point you realise they only complain when rates rise and pass cost increases through to consumers regardless, and then say nothing when interest expense is decreasing and still pass on higher prices to consumers and keep the difference as increased profits for themselves.
There's a good graph in this article that shows 'real' inflation (HLPI) vs. the RBNZ's measure (CPI).
It is a good representation of why non-tradeable inflation in NZ is 'sticky'. So what's the major difference between the good measure, the HLPI, and the bad measure, the CPI? The answer is the CPI doesn't include interest costs. And who controls interest costs .... None other than the RBNZ !!! How dare they harp on about 'sticky' non-tradable inflation when they're a major source of it.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/household-living-costs-cool-but-mor…
Edit: Hopefully you now understand why I keep saying November 2023 was the time the RBNZ should have started their easing cycle.
And what do you think would have happened if the RBNZ had cut the OCR last November? Do you think Kiwis would have said, "Whew. Thank goodness for that. Now I can buy a few more tomatoes to have with Christmas dinner", or would they have done what they have always done; what they have been trained like circus seals to do over the last 4 decades - gone off to "Buy another renter before the price go up!"?
That's our problem, We use Debt for the wrong reason. I have no issue with cutting the OCR to wherever you like, as long as you have no issue with a change to bank lending that targets where new Debt goes. And that is pretty much everywhere except the secondary-holding of residential property. "Want another renter?" Adrian should say, "Go for it. But pay for it entirely with your own money"
Yip I’m singing from the same sheet of music as you BW. Dropping rates risks making our fundamental issue even worse and nothing will be resolved. Our private debt level to GDP is not our friend, it is our enemy.
I think we should consider leaving rates higher but increase fiscal stimulus to reduce private debt levels to a lower level but I doubt this national government will be onboard for that as they seem determined to try and return a balanced budget (this may make the coming recession a real doozy).
re ... "Dropping rates risks making our fundamental issue even worse and nothing will be resolved. Our private debt level to GDP is not our friend, it is our enemy."
You comment seems to suggest it isn't possible to drop interest rates without increase debt.
You know there are ways to restrict credit growth while decreasing interest rates, right?
The US is kind of achieving the same thing isn't it with the opposite approach? US consumer economy and most businesses are pretty immune to high rates thanks to long-term fixes on debt, but their real estate sector is struggling (finance sector being propped up by the Fed of course). We could achieve a similar dynamic with lower interest rates and credit controls.
I’m of the opinion that the only thing holding up house prices in nominal terms at present has been the high inflation and that if we approach deflation (eg in business profits and personal incomes) then the rate of house price falls may accelerate for 12-24 months as interest rates decrease.
Just as it has been 2-3 years to get inflation under control, it may take the same to reverse course once again (unless of course we don’t another round of 2020 covid style stupidity in terms of fiscal and monetary policy - but if that happens then all bets are off - house prices may skyrocket again, closely followed by an even more severe bout of ‘transitory inflation’ - and with even more young NZ’ers leaving the place as wages get even ore detached to asset prices - nothing resolved or fixed, just even more financial and social instability with not a crumb of hope of future prosperity for those in their 20/30s).
Truflation has made an attempt to harness technology to provide better measures of price increases. The CPI and household living cost measures are largely run by dinosaur thinking of bureaucrats. Unfortunately, a Truflation platform doesn't exist for Aotearoa.
https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/independent-inflation-index-trufla…
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