What a remarkable two weeks in America. As I wrote my last column on May 26, the country was beginning to learn of the tragic death of George Floyd in South Minneapolis the day before. Protests in response to Floyd’s death in that city soon escalated and spread across the country, leading to dramatic scenes that have been beamed around the world.
In Arizona, the first protest marches to the State Capitol in downtown Phoenix on May 28 and 29 led to clashes with police and broken windows. More consequential was the looting of the high-end Scottsdale Fashion Square mall that Saturday evening. Local TV news helicopters showed live footage of shops such as the Apple Store, Urban Outfitters and the homewares vendor Crate & Barrel being raided at the shopping center, about 15 miles north of the State Capitol. This prompted Governor Ducey to mobilise the national guard and enforce a state-wide 8pm-5am curfew the next day, lasting for a week. Since then, protests and demonstrations have continued, but looting has not, and the former seem to be concluding, in Phoenix at least.
Most Americans have been appalled by Floyd’s death and alarmed by the looting, arson and violence that accompanied the legitimate protests in its wake. Commentators like Paul Krugman at the New York Times, David Kilcullen in the Australian, and Chris Trotter here at interest.co.nz all expressed dismay at the upheaval in American cities. They asked whether this was the beginning of the end of American democracy, the harbinger of broader organised violence and civil war, or a signal that America is now a malignant force in international affairs, ruled by “its worst demons” and to be shunned by a small, principled Pacific nation like New Zealand.
In the Australian Financial Review last weekend, I made my modest contribution to this discussion, which I will not recant in full here. To summarise, I do not share the direst interpretations of recent events. Urban unrest like that which we have witnessed is very rare in the US, and is much more common in Europe, for example. The recent wave of unrest is likely to ebb but could continue as part of a broader campaign of mobilization through the summer. This is particularly likely if the focus of protests shifts from the specific grievance of Floyd’s death to mobilising voters in the November elections. Mobilisation is likely to be more widespread and contentious if Donald Trump continues to be seen as a threat to the integrity of the electoral process, and especially if we see a very close or contested presidential election result.
Alongside these events, data were released late last week indicating that the US economy had added 2.5 million jobs in May, the most in a single month since statistics have been collected, to send the unemployment rate down from 14.7% to 13.3%. Although Paul Krugman did not want believe the officials at the Bureau of Labor Statistics were telling the truth, this news was a rare splash of positive news – alongside the successful SpaceX rocket launch – and on Monday led to a surge in the US stock market.
In Arizona, the unemployment rate in April was 12.9%, up from 6.1% in March and 4.4% in February. State-level data for May are not available yet, but although first-time unemployment claims are dropping, they are still running at more than six times pre-Covid levels. It appears that the local economy is still shedding jobs, though at a much-reduced pace.
In New Zealand, unemployment statistics are only reported quarterly, and the figure for the March quarter was 4.2%. Higher-frequency indicators such as latest data on welfare benefits show an increase of just over 50,000 “main benefit” recipients since March 20. The latest data on the government wage subsidy program that began on March 17 indicate that 390,000 businesses are receiving this support.
It is not possible to derive precise unemployment estimates for New Zealand from these higher-frequency data. The wage subsidy program, for example, only gives us the number of applications by employers, and allows multiple employers to file claims for the same worker. It is likely that the public will not know the official June quarter unemployment statistics until the end of July.
However, with a working-age population of 3.95 mln we could be pretty certain that the New Zealand unemployment rate was running very much higher at the end of May, assuming (heroically) that each business receiving the wage subsidy corresponds to an average of one unemployed worker. Interestingly, if we assume that half of this (posited) increase in unemployment since mid-March is eliminated by the recent moves to reopen the economy, we see a figure of 9.6%, which is very similar to the Treasury’s estimate of 9.8% last week. However, because the lockdown was only significantly reduced on June 8, the effects of reopening will only become truly apparent in September quarter figures released after the election at the end of October.
As I write, I have the feeling that my next column will return to the topic of the Covid-19 pandemic. Some readers will have noted that Arizona is among several states outside the initially hard-hit Northeast where positive tests for the virus are increasing rapidly. The Governor has repeatedly insisted that this increase is a result of more widespread testing, but nonetheless it is significant. Hospital utilisation rates are also higher, not only because of the virus but also because of a resumption of elective surgeries, which could now be cut short. Other indicators, such as respirator use and Covid-related deaths, are not as negative, so the picture is hardly clear.
The mass response to George Floyd’s death has managed to overshadow the ongoing public health crisis on the front pages, but as Covid-19 begins its march west from New York and Michigan, this could be a temporary change.
Henry Thomson is originally from Amberley, North Canterbury and is now an Assistant Professor of Political Economy at Arizona State University. His research focuses on the political economy of authoritarian rule and transitions to democracy. You can read more about his research here and follow him on Twitter @HenryRThomson. His earlier letters are here.
64 Comments
xingmowang,
It's either is a cripple or crippled, but not is cripple.
I agree with you that neither candidate is what America or indeed, the world needs now. Were I able to vote, I would have hold my nose while ticking the Biden box as the lesser of two evils. I have just finished rereading Bomb, Book and Compass, the fascinating story of how Joseph Needham, a scientist from Cambridge University, effectively rediscovered the astonishing number of Chinese inventions and made it his life's work to produce a 24 volume book, Science and Civilisation in China. China is undoubtedly a great nation, but those of us who live in democracies-however imperfect they are- look at what is happening in China now with growing concern. It has never known democracy and that is its business, but the increasingly repressive stance of the government is our business and however uncomfortable, Western nations must be prepared to confront it.
Joseph Needham was remarkable. Wikipedia ""He was elected a fellow of the Royal Society in 1941, and a fellow of the British Academy in 1971. In 1992, Queen Elizabeth II conferred on him the Companionship of Honour, and the Royal Society noted he was the only living person to hold these three titles.""
"The Needham Question", is this: why had China and India been overtaken by the West in science and technology, despite their earlier successes?
Needham's biographer Simon Winchester claimed that "Needham was intellectually in love with communism; and yet communist spymasters and agents, it turned out, had pitilessly duped him." At least nothing like that could happen today.
Scottsdale! In August at midday really only fit for mad dogs and Englishmen but a wonderful part of the world, great people to be amongst. The latent volatility in the USA has broken out into virtual inter community warfare. The powder keg has been growing and growing especially since Rodney King 1991. Come CV19 come the fuse. Come a Minnesota cop, come the match.
How strange, his specialty area of research is "the political economy (i.e., Marxian economic analysis) of authoritarian rule and transitions to democracy" . But during the ongoing demonstration by civil society against authoritarian rule across every one of the 50 US states - he fails to provide any analysis of this.
Where is the analysis of their political economy? I see the largest demonstration in my lifetime of the proletariat rising. All the movement needs is a coordinated platform of demands and a 'philosopher king' type of leader that the masses can join in behind. Bernie Sanders nearly got there but was knee-capped by the capitalist bourgeoisie.
I mean, how can it be that the largest economy in the democratic world is putting up two people nobody really wants to vote for in its general election - for the second time in a row?
It is academics such as this author that need to be digging philosophically deeper into the crisis of malaise vs the crisis of revolution in the US. As a start he could read Mannheim.
It is entrenched in the combativeness of the two parties for the spoils of power. For instance last time the Republicans selected what to all and sundry seemed to be the most unlikely candidate imaginable, because they were simply frantic to regain power and terrified Trump would, if he was not selected, run as an independent and split their vote. When we were in New Jersey a Republican State senator lost the vote. Virtually overnight, there was a different garbage collection outfit, roading projects in one area were cancelled and replaced elsewhere and on and on. Everybody owes someone a favour or more, everyone expects payback, it flows right through the whole damn system, top to bottom. What is actually the best for the people, the community, the country finishes a distant second.
The purpose of the office of the President is to project a vision of peaceful bliss and keep the sheep quiet so the looting by the elite can carry on out of sight. The elite hate Trump because he lets the mask drop and make the sheep restless. Not being an insider, there is a lack of dirt ( no matter how hard they try to manufacture it) to control him. Far better Biden with his 50 years of insider history, where the questionable actions of his family can be used in 'private' discussions rather than in public.
Kate,
I think the term 'Marxian economic analysis' within Henry's self description of his research interest is something you have added. I can find no such association in an internet search. Also, I know a little of Henry's work and I doubt that he would describe himself as Marxian. If I am correct, then you have set up a straw man. And if I am wrong, then can you please show me where you got this quote from that self describes his research interests as 'Marxian economic analysis'. 'Political economy' is not the same thing as 'Marxian economic analysis'.
KeithW
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_economy
PS one doesn't need to be a Marxist to employ a Marxian economic approach to analyses.
Kate,
The reference you quote describing 'political economy' does use the word 'Marxian', stating that political economy may include Marxian analysis along with all the other diverse schools of economic thought deriving from Adam Smith, Ricardo and even schools such as Chicago. In fact 'political economy' is a close to universal term used widely as a synonym for the overarching economics discipline. Marxian analysis holds no special place relative to other schools. So you are using that Wikipedia reference here for support and not illumination.
It is not good form to include your own interpretations inside another person's quotes. And in this case you made it worse, by seriously misinterpreting the quote, passing it off as Henry's words (in double quotes) and in doing so built the straw man, and then attacked it.
As for Karl Mannheim, he did opine more than 70 years ago on the issues of maintaining diverse thinking within society, as did J.S. Mill before him. It is an issue that many of us are currently thinking about. I think you can rest assured that Henry, having studied in both Germany and England, knows about these economic philosophers. But that was not central to the particular column Henry has written here.
We should always be careful of attaching labels to people which are not accurate, and even more so when that label appears falsely to have come as a self-quote. And now, saying that one does not have to be a Marxist to use Marxian analysis, is to wriggle away. Most economists dealing with societal issues will at some time have referred to Marxian analysis, but by your misquote you created the basis of a false inference that Henry's overarching frameworks were Marxian. And then you built from there.
KeithW
I could have said the column was an absolute waste of time; particularly given this time, or moment in history - is that better?
Compare it with this - something worth reading in the discipline of political economy;
https://jacobinmag.com/2020/06/david-harvey-cities-capital-labor-crisis
Trump is certainly not the sharpest knife in the drawer but then nor are the majority of US voters… a match made in… heaven or perhaps hell. Also an election is (sadly) a popularity contest (just look how Labour's support changed when Ardern took over from Little with no new policies). I'm afraid Trump will get another term.
I think your evaluation of Trump is wrong. You have confused talking fancy with big words as a sign of intelligence. I thing he is very intelligence in a street smart way and talks at a 12 year olds level which connects with the general population. He doesn't talk down, which the chattering classes mistake as a lack of intelligence and thus underestimate his appeal. I agree he will win because of this.
Most likely, he'll contract the virus.
But meantime, watch Seattle. As a wild guess, if he tries to send in the military, they'll refuse the order and someone will send in men in white coats (being declared mentally unfit to serve);
https://politicalviolenceataglance.org/2020/06/03/civil-military-relati…
There was some talk that Trump wanted to “federalise” The National Guard. That would be a softer option for action than the professional military. The military have recently given some solid united voice to what they see as their demarcation line. He has too, dishonoured quite a few of their respected senior commanders. The people of the USA not only respect their soldiers but they want to. Trump is street cunning enough perhaps, to foresee a potential reversal of the people backing the military, and not him.
Speaking of Seattle - Fox News found to be doctoring photos;
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/fox-news-runs-digita…
There needs to be a penalty for this kind of behaviour.
Kate did you read this on Zero?
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/anonymous-berkeley-professor-shreds…
Now I have. Anything written by "anonymous" should be ignored - treated as "fake news". Just because two people who are prepared to be named admitted to having received it does not make it any less "fake". There is so much in there that is laughable if from a political historian, such as;
"MLK would likely be called an Uncle Tom if he spoke on our campus today. We are training leaders who intend, explicitly, to destroy one of the only truly successful ethnically diverse societies in modern history."
The man/woman is talking a load of s$!t.
Many be they are anonymous because they saw what happened to this guy.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/cornell-law-prof-says-theres-coordi…
Are all the anonymous sources in the NYT and WP also a load of s$!t.
I worked through what he was saying one point at a time. He's right about San Francisco, parts of the Bay area are dangerous these days, and there is hate crime against Asians. Many more businesses will move out of the area, reducing tax income for the city.
Also those Democrat run cities have trapped African Americans in a cycle of poverty, have poor spending discipline, have high taxes that discourage business, have gold plated pensions for Police/fire/teachers and other civil servants, often facing bankruptcy from those unfunded pensions.
American Universities are often very left wing, dishing out useless degrees, while again staff are on gold plated pensions.
George Floyd did do the crime, as stated. He is also right about Asian and Nigerian students not showing up on the crime stats and doing better at school.
Where I disagree is I think many young black men are raised in hopeless situations, where drugs are plentiful, schools underfunded,where jobs are scarce and fathers are rare. I doubt if any of us were from a similar background, we would be much different.
I concerned that this is dividing a great country, when in fact it's the greed of Wall Street that is the real undoing of America. The lack of jobs in the USA is at crisis levels and has been for a long time, Bill Clinton sat and watched nearly 8 million jobs leave for China, so corporate America could get rich on the back of near slave wages in China. He also repealed the Glass Steagall act.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/glass_steagall_act.asp,
The protests themselves aren't dividing the country - from what I've read a majority of Americans are on-the-side of peaceful protesters exercising their constitutional rights. I see the protests as a uniting force - a 'peoples' movement demanding the end of the crony capitalist system - most Americans want a new way of doing things and a new way of distributing their taxes and other resources you speak of.
Hopefully the 'movement' is morphing into a class struggle that just happened to be ignited by a racial discrimination struggle.
I think you are being wildly optimistic. I think the Democrats are going to come out of this badly. Most of my friends want a job with a decent wage, good schools, affordable health care and somewhere safe to live. Health Care is probably their biggest concern, followed by job security and a safe community for family.
All are very happy with Trumps tax cuts, most would like to see cuts in military spending, all think the State is wasteful and inefficient and healthcare is the ultimate corporate fraud.
Thing is that growing demographic is growing exponentially at present - and the 'system' so far as I can see, has no answers to that problem;
https://howmuch.net/articles/breakdown-each-state-debt-capita
Kate only the DSA sees things through class in the US. Everyone else has the creepy race fixation. "Racism" in the US is 99% a class issue but due to history everyone is obsessed with race identity. Most white people that fixate on race are racists in my opinion. Democrats believe black people don't have ID. WTF?! That is racist to an almost unimaginable level to me. I have never met an African American that doesn't have ID. It is laughable but a fixed belief in the Democrat party.
Any ideology that views someone raised in rural Appalachia as privileged and the kids of the black power class as victims is going to be a hard sell because it is profoundly stupid.
You put it strongly but in the main you are right. There certainly is a race problem in America and NZ has a mild form of one to. But it relates to class or assumptions of class. When we make decisions on inadequate evidence then foreign names and ethnic appearance do make a difference and usually one that disadvantages the minority. I can give examples that apply to my extended family about only getting an interview when they adopted a European surname or my distant Maori relative who visiting from Australia was saddened when he noticed women shoppers tightening their grip on their handbags when he walked by. In the main th problem is class. Just ask yourself if you were competing for a seat in a posh restaurant who would get it you or I or Beyonce, Oprah, Denzil or Barak? The barriers have been toppled; anyone can study at Oxford or become President of the USA whether Jewish, Catholic, female or unusual ethnicity. The obstacles for African-Americans in film and music have been overturned.
Those who wish to change society such as my daughter who has joined the BLM protest would be better abandoning the white privilege argument and using the 'Fair Go' argument. I will borrow you phrase 'creepy race fixation'.
Recall a biography about Wellington and a quote about that time in the house of commons “there is nothing more galling than injustice.” And alongside injustice, inequality runs in tandem. People of all colour, creed and nature who are subjected to those two corrupt features, will unhesitatingly unite universally, and rebel. France 1784, Russia 1918, New Zealand 1845, China 1899, India 1857, by way of example.
By DSA do you mean Democratic Socialists of America? Looked them up and found this interesting bit;
https://www.dsausa.org/statements/beyond-bernie-a-statement-from-the-ds…
I understand your point about "creepy race fixation". What's weird for me is that I grew up there (was in primary school in the 60s) and never 'got it' (the creepy fixation) and never 'understood it' in those that 'had it'. I was blessed with two parents that did not 'have it'.
What I'm sensing with the more recent events is that most young, white Americans don't 'have it'. They see themselves as equally disadvantaged from a jobs/financial perspective - they see themselves with student loan debt that might never be repaid - they see themselves with insecure employment, or no employment aside from minimum wage slavery. They know black Americans have had it this way for generations upon generation.
Hence, the young do not have that 'creepy race fixation' - moreover they 'get' that #blacklivesmatter (i.e., racial discrimination and injustice) has to be dealt with first before the injustices in their own lives (and the grievances they have with the State-corporate apparatus) can be addressed.
I saw an interview with the Rev Jessie Jackson tonight. He expressed my feelings of hope in this young generation. I am thankful everyday for those individuals of all generations, across the nation who get up and get out on the streets. I only hope that this collective of youth finally achieve what my generation did not.
Yes I mean the Democratic Socialists of America.
There are many millions of white Americans that are structurally held down. They are being held down by the multi-hued coalition of people out there waving BLM placards at the end of their street. The issues in the US are structural they cannot be solved by a "race first" approach. I'm the furthest thing from a socialist but I fully agree with socialists that crony capitalism is an evil. The US is run strictly by and for large corporations and their owners. The large corporations are ecstatic about the focus on race and shovel money at it so no one looks at what is actually happening.
Racism is real but it is almost always used as a "I'm wealthy, you are not" tool.
They are being held down by the multi-hued coalition of people out there waving BLM placards at the end of their street.
I take it that's said metaphorically, but I still don't get it. It's like you're saying the proletariat are being held down by the proletariat - and instead they ought to be addressing the capitalist bourgeoisie. Thing is the Occupy Wall Street and the 99% movement tried tackling the structural problems (crony capitalism) from that angle. Liz Warren tried that angle too. I think Trump with his 'drain the swamp' slogan tried that angle too.
Economics, leaning towards adding epidemiology, useful is one that gets you a job without mountains of unpayable debt. One that universities don't get to make you buy this years expensive books etc. If your parents are paying it just doesn't matter, if you are borrowing it's probably better if you can to train on the job unless its medicine, law, eng etc.
All degrees are useful. As Woodrow Wilson said :
'The use of Universities is to make young gentlemen as unlike their parents as possible'.
Much change comes from that only.
Trump relies on the masses who don't have that degree to make them think for themselves.
If you are talking about jobs, I am sure what you study and what you end up doing to earn your living rarely matches in the real world.
And my favourite quote is "Don't schooling interfere with your Education'...
A great topic & discussion from a great article, albeit with a real Arizona flavour, as it applies here as much as it does there. Here, we have Labour gifted a global crisis to showcase their talent (I couldn't add the multiple s as they have no multiples) while it fails miserably with the everyday & necessary policies of running a successful small nation.
The choices are similar in both lands. The ultra-liberal, city centered change & change again approach (mainly anti the old money crowd) or a more conservative, steady as you go approach, each with their good & bad. Indeed, this is the same/similar question posed right across the west today, & it is a challenge for all of us to get our heads around, as you well know.
We've witnessed, over the past 30 years, the west becoming lazy in their wealth & the jobs have gone (been sold out by Wall Street bankers for a higher profit margin) to the Asian workers, who will do it for a fraction of the cost, bullied by their leaders to work long days for very little. Greed has stepped into the equation.
The west needs to create the next generation of workers(?) through hi tech machinery so that they can operate 24/7 & then we don't have to pay their wages. This could/should eventually eliminate cheap labour from the workforce, rendering states like China redundant, with our own cheap labour finding it harder & harder as well. New ways to tax (to lead) are obviously a big part of this, although I'm trying desperately to think of ways we can AI our central state government activities so we can eliminate those costs as well.
Remember, we still have the best lifestyles available on Planet Earth today by a long chalk. You ask anyone (the public) who doesn't live in the west how much they want to live in the west. And don't make the mistake of believing their leaders answer to the same question, as they lie.
But back to the democracies & the vote(s): Perhaps we should take the personalities out of the process & ask ourselves which future would be best for our nation, rather than what is just best for me. What's best for me is a very selfish format, but what is best for NZ Inc to prosper & succeed into the new millennium(?) now there's a question. How does welfare look in 10 years time? What will our jobs be like in 10 years time? How will we commute (or not) to work or anywhere, in 10 years time? What will the state of our families be in 10 years time (?) for they're not in great shape at the moment. Who do we want to our global friends in 10 years time? Wouldn't it be great if we had some of these questions asked during the election process this year?
Lot's of talking already being done on all those fronts, for example, what will jobs be like in 10 years time - use this google search;
https://www.google.com/search?q=the+future+of+work+nz&rlz=1C1CHBF_enNZ7…
Problem with all that is, no one has asked the questions assuming no/negative growth for a prolonged period. The questions do need to be re-phrased making new assumptions regarding degrowth, deintensifiation, depopulation, deglobalisation.
I think that local 3D printing of things will be the next big disruptive thing. Having a machine in your home that makes things will disrupt manufacturing, retail and transport. While it may take a while to get to the abilities of the replicator on Star trek, it is already being used in industry to bypass supply chains for one off items. It will be more disruptive than what happened to the entertainment industry.
https://www.ge.com/additive/additive-manufacturing/industries/oil-gas
While the SW IP of the item could be bought on a site like itunes, how does a govt get tax eg GST on an item made at home. It would be very deflationary as items would only be the cost of the materials.
Xi is bad because he is a dictator so people don't expect much; in that sense, DT is worse because he is derailing the constitutional democracy as an elected head of state. He has done so much damage to America during this pandemic, to a point that his blame on Xi and CCP looks like nothing but the last resort to save his re-election. This COVID19 shitshow exposed his incompetency as POTUS to unite and lead America during a crisis. General Mattis' criticism was on point. I'm wondering if Putin and Xi actually want him to be around for another 4 years. Luckly the American system didn't allow him to be the emperor like Xi. National Guards kept their composure and refused to turn on the protesters, so thanks to the system. However, the system is wearing off rapidly.
Agree with your comment. Having effective, honest institutions is so important. Ref Naill Ferguson's comments and also a course on the history of Byzantium I've recently attended - a civilisation that lasted a millenium and had some great Emperors and some truly dreadful ones but success and failure mainly related to the effectiveness of tax collection and the institutions required to keep it honest and effective.
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