Finance Minister Grant Robertson has made true on his promise to deliver a “rebuilding Budget,” with more than half of all new spending focusing on rebuilding public services.
Of that, 50% will be spent in the health sector.
Budget documents show over the next five years, the Government will spend an extra $6.5 billion on “rebuilding critical public services” including in the education, health and justice sectors.
That makes up 67% of all $9.67 billion of all new spending over the next five years, excluding revenue, savings and reprioritisation.
Robertson says the $3.2 billion investment into the health is the biggest capital injection the sector has seen in a decade.
“We can’t continue to have people doubting the quality of our hospitals and schools,” he said in a speech in the Budget lock-up.
Economic growth expectations are also good, averaging at 2.9% over five years – that’s up 0.5% on projections in the Half Yearly Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU).
Cameron Bagrie of Bagrie Economics says these figures look “a bit optimistic,” adding that he expects areas, such as dairy land to remain under pressure.
Treasury has flagged a $7.3 billion surplus by 2021/22.
Other key figures from the Budget documents include an operating allowance of $2.8 billion per year and capital allowance of $3.8 billion over the same period.
Unemployment is expected to fall to 4.1% in late 2019, according to Treasury.
Flexing his fiscal muscles
The Budget shows the Government is forecast to meet its fiscal responsibility rules and then some.
As a percentage of GDP, the Government’s debt position has improved, with debt down every year over the next half decade compared to December forecasts.
By 2022, the Government’s debt position will be 19.1%, down 0.2% on previous estimates and well below Robertson’s target of 20% within five years of taking office.
Asked why the Government doesn’t just borrow the difference – which would be hundreds of millions of dollars – Robertson said it’s important the Government leaves itself with a bit more fiscal headroom.
“There are a number of things on the horizon, cost pressures we’re going to have to face – they tend to be unknown costs.”
He pointed to the spread of the cattle disease Mycoplasma bovis and the impact that could have on the primary sector.
The Budget responsibility rules also state the Government will keep Core Crown spending at roughly 30% of GDP.
Treasury figures show the Government will be below that number by roughly 2% each year.
Robertson’s rationale for keeping this figure below 30% is the same as for not increasing net debt.
“I believe it is the responsible thing to do to leave ourselves with a little bit more room there.”
The ‘rebuilding Budget’
For weeks now, Robertson and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern have been hinting the Government would unveil a big spending in rebuilding core infrastructure they say was neglected by the previous Government.
“We can’t fix every problem in one Budget,” Robertson said in Parliament on Wednesday.
“But health, education and housing will finally receive the support they deserve under this Government’s plan.”
Ardern has pencilled in a visit to North Shore Hospital tomorrow for a post-budget speech.
District Health Board will receive an extra $2.3 billion over the next four years.
Minister of Health David Clark says this will relieve some of the pressure they’ve been under, and to ensure they can maintain their “standards of care, mental health services and support for older New Zealanders.”
The Government has also set aside a further $100 million next year for additional deficit support.
Figures from the Ministry of Health for the eight months to February show the combined DHB deficit is $190 million.
Other big-ticket spending initiatives in the health sector includes $363 million in new funding for extending free GP visits to under-14 years olds.
The Government will also be making GP visits up to $30 cheaper for people on modest incomes who are eligible for a community services card.
Clark estimates this will give roughly 600,000 New Zealanders “better access to healthcare from December 1, this year.”
Education has received a significant boost in funding as well, getting an extra $1.5 billion over the next five years.
The bulk of that funding, some three-quarters of it, will go into meeting increasing demand in the early childhood sector.
113 Comments
Just pouring money into something does not make it better. I wonder how they will benchmark the improvement generated in hospitals and schools? Can we compare pre 2018 grades with post 2018 grades to determine how much it costs (per grade point?) to improve academic results?
Entirely agree ? Well no
This new government should follow the previous Nat government open migrant policy overload the NZ hospitals & schools & require NZ hospitals to tout for fee paying foreigners who need operations
Just like the Nats underfunded higher decile public schools to such an extent they were required to tout for fee paying foreign students.
What have you Nat voters learnt ? Obviously nothing
@sadr it wont and it cant , a new classroom will make little difference .......... they have got rid of the measurement of academic success or faliure , due to pressure from the powerful teachers Union.
National Standards has been replaced with .................. Nothing
Its disgraceful
Basically we dont have any measurable Standard for our kids so we will never know the truth
agreed - employers know the truth as they are having to provide literacy supports to many young people - who have NCA level 3 - but can hardly write a coherent sentence
I gave up three years ago relying on collage Level 4 quals and now run them internally through careeforce- but with my staff delivering the actual training, supports and assessing units to ensure staff have the skills -
The truth is out there .... and its pretty scary
How did you determine the existing allocation to be vastly insufficient? Last I checked Singapore allocated $10 Billion to their healthcare system for 5.5million people whilst we allocate $18 billion for 4.8 million people. The Singaporean system routinely gets listed as amongst the best in the world! Surely putting in roughly twice as much per capita as the best system indicates that the system is vastly OVER funded as opposed to under funded?
This is a very interesting statistic indeed. Perhaps they have less costs because we have a larger surface area to cover compared to Singapore so they can consolidate services to make it easier for emergency services to act. They also may have more enrolled in private health insurance which may make 1) the cost of servicing health cheaper overall and 2) easier on public services. I would like to see a comparison between the two states.
Singaporeans don't have "free" healthcare. They have a personal government funded kiwihealthsaver account and they get to keep the money if they don't use it ultimately. Huge incentive to keep healthy and hunt for the most efficient doctor. The "free" health system we have is a bloated inefficent drag on the economy.
"The Budget responsibility rules also state the Government will keep Core Crown spending at roughly 30% of GDP" and this budget is forecasting around 28%. How does this compare with other OECD countries? I know state and federal govts in AUS etc have separate budgets so does anyone have figures accounting for those sort of differences? Also how does this compare with the average in NZ?
Goof questions. The biggest difference between NZ and Australia is that we have no stamp duty on property transactions, whereas the Aussies are massively reliant on it. Their property bubble is very important for tax receipts. I assume that those stamp duties are allocated to infrastructure spend. In that respect, they're ahead.
Well there you are JC
Stamp duty or land transfer tax is a excellent way for cities to benefit .
1.5% I paid on a holiday home in NS last year plus 1.2% annual property tax based on assessment on that particular semi rural property
Aucklands Cities debt would not be as bad if every flip of a house had resulted in a 1.5% gift to the city
Of course wealthy Aucklanders love the cheap rates on multi million$ property and so the paradigm continues
Well there you are JC
Stamp duty or land transfer tax is a excellent way for cities to benefit .
1.5% I paid on a holiday home in NS last year plus 1.2% annual property tax based on assessment on that particular semi rural property
Aucklands Cities debt would not be as bad if every flip of a house had resulted in a 1.5% gift to the city
Of course wealthy Aucklanders love the cheap rates on multi million$ property and so the paradigm continues
I hear you. Mind you, I have read that the state govts are so reliant on stamp duty that they need to keep the bubble powering along for funding. It's like some massive tape worm feeding of an organism.
In the case of Auckland, our bubble is arguably worse than Sydney or Melbourne, mainly because they have a more diversified property environment (for ex, apartments that are desirable for living in). Therefore, the imposition of stamp duty might be a catalyst for the whole shebang to implode.
What utter Bollocks ................ we have not been at War and the rebuilding of Chch is in hand !
Nothing needs "rebuilding " , we just need to maintain what we have , and prepare for planned obsolescence of old equipment and buildings .
This type of planning is done using professional facililties managers ........... take a look at the German model on how to operate facilities properly .
There is the impression that Hospitals are in a state of utter chaos , decay and disarray , its simply not true
@houses overpriced ... its good to hear that Jacinda is visiting a State Hospital tommorow ............. she can see for herself that things are nowhere near as bad as we are conned into believing by the coterie of left-wing opportunists and rabble - rousers ......... like Lizzy Marvelly
Guarantee Jacinda won’t be rushed to get out of hospital ASAP after giving birth
Of course the hospital system needs further funding
Anyone attending the NShore hospital emergency waiting room can gain a quick update on the new demographic that seeks care. New migrants come at a cost.
Pity National ignored that fact with their open immigration
I was there years ago & it was overloaded then at night
Heaven knows how any of you get prompt care there today
I have a very large family in New Zealand ( or should I say my wife does )
We do have a relative who is a nurse but now works at a private clinic, and we had dinner with her and her Physio partner on Sunday evening where the dinner table conversation about the health sector was ........ animated .
She supports Labour and Jacinda big time , I dont
She was not happy in the State system due to the hours and she has 3 kids under 10 , but other than that she had no complaints and said the pay was not that bad , saying nursing is a calling like teaching or social work
Japan lays groundwork for boom in robot carers
I'm going to quite annoyed if I miss out on this technology. I want to spend my last months being cared for by robots.
Funny thing is that each time I've heard a leftie asked about this, like this morning on the AM Show, they say the treatment was fine, usually due to the Florence nightingale types who staff them (ignoring the reports of nurse bullying by their Matrons and Doctors). What is the truth?
Go along with that EP, and heedless of what government may be in power. There is always those in pivotal positions who excel in making up for the deficiencies in the system and those working around them. It is called the thin red line as per Kipling. “It’s Tommy this and Tommy that, and Tommy how’s your soul, but it’s a thin red line of heroes, when the drums begin to roll.” Ihave come across that thin line in many places all over the world, over the years and would have to say, sadly, they are largely unappreciated and unrewarded. Pleased to see some out there with that understanding.
@Frazz I have used these excellent facilities.
The first time for emergency surgery for my then 7 year -old son due to a cycling accident on Albany Highway, he was admitted to Starship and it was amazing what the Doctors and nurses did for him . 100% recovery
I used it again on following an injury on a Sunday playing rugby with my sons on the beach
And my eldest son has used both the NS Hospital and Whakatane hospitals as a result of sports injuries.
I have a relative with melanoma , and one with severe diabetes requiring kidney dialysis and the service has been exceptional .
Another relative was in Middlemore with Guiliain Barre Sydrome and is now disabled , and the service he has had over a decade has been exemplary .
I accept that elective surgery and non urgent medical attention is pushed down the queue , but what do we expect ?
... I'd much rather that we get it right for the kiddies , from birth to 5 years of age , particularly ....
We dish out so much munny for adult students , interest-free loans and other middleclass welfare crud .... fewer tertiary students are needed .... more apprentices doing polytech courses is what the country desperately requires ...
... look after the littlies .... where it all begins .... let the grown ups make grown up decisions and take care of themselves ...
Just think of the average mother's daily life:
Wake up in their $650k shoebox, look out the window, see other shoe boxes 3 meters away.
Drop the kinder off at the Wilsons Kid-Parking Building Early Childhood Education™ Center. What the fees went up? I thought Labour were paying them.
Fill up the car with monopoly triple taxed petroleum. Wish you had a Nissan Leaf, but the dollar dropped and they're unaffordable now.
Commute to work, one hour hour.
Spend 8 hours working to pay for said shoebox feeling miserable that you can't interact with your child.
Commute back to Childhood McEducation center through busy traffic.
Your kid cries because they're being bullied because of their pale skin colour.
Get a restless nights sleep because the neighbours one boomstick away are playing rap music at 1am.
Repeat.
I chastised an anaethetist daughter in law for foolishly voting National. Her defence was that there was insufficient funds available to correct the abysmal problems in our hospitals. Labour have now surely proved you wrong my hardworking relative. Hopefully you are not, as is usual, far too busy to follow this site.
What exactly are the abysmal problems in our Hospitals ?
Have you ever used the NHS in the UK ?
Ours are well run, well funded , and while the assets get 'sweated " ..........as a taxpayer , I would not expect anything less.
Our Public Health system is exceptionally good in my experience
We are seeing a new government with a new focus and dedication to its people. The ordinary people that is. And we expected this.That is in stark contrast to the previous government whose prime concern was big business and set about creating Corprate New Zealand in that image.The problem for this new government is funding, raw funding. The easy answer to that is increased taxation. Perhaps that might be the only answer but first they need to take the knife to wanton government wastage and spending in the bureaucratic empires that have been , and still are, spiralling out of control. This is the age of technology. High speed communications and data processing and filing access etc,etc etc. Things are meant to have become more effective and efficient. Why then does the lowest rank listed MP in parliament have more staff clustered around them than Keith Holyoake had when he was PM?
I work closely with bits of the health services and in my view they have loads of money. They also have incompetence, disorganisation, and within the professions blatant featherbedding. Now, whenever I hear the cry 'more funding' my first assumption is that it is the lazy option to say that. Better they did the hard work first.
Perhaps some of the middle management do?
The doctors and nurses I know are usually left to lament the conditions they're having to work with.
That said, demographic shifts will ensure our health spending continues to grow. Boomers are aging and they will not want their care levels to suffer.
@ Rick. So easy to blame the managers, and in my view that's done to take the heat off the professionals featherbedding.
One way to featherbed is to organise whole departments to do one thing and avoid other tasks. Doctors like doing the interesting work, but not the boring same old same old. What the public doesn't know.........
There is a term "shroud waving" It means portraying to the public that they are all going to die, if the doctor does not get his shiny new toy. Look out for it.
Yes the management is riddled with politics.
And yes Rick there are plenty of Nurses and Doctors just doing their jobs as best they can.
My partner recently left a job with a DHB working as a community Occupational Therapist, and now works further up the food chain for a private company. My impression is that the DHB positions are so mired down doing paperwork to justify what are often relatively small expenditures that they spend very little time in the community visiting clients and getting on with the job. Perhaps a freeing up of their ability to make decisions and spend minor sums without filling in mountains of (electronic) paperwork might help.
It costs the DHB around $146,000 to emply a nurse - when you include all the add costs / infrastuctire / middle management blah blah blah - thats their figures -
When they contract with an NGO - ( and i manage one) they offer us $104,000 to employ someone in the same role - and expect us to deliver a far higher amount of face to face work than their own staff. Of course we manage this - as we are not weighed down by several levels of wasteful management that in teh private sector was weeded out years and years ago and the advent of better technology and communication - such as e mail and electronic records - and was found to be completely redundant.
Money is poorly spent and there is no accountability - I had a very senior DHB manager say to me one day that if he overspent by $1,000,000 he would have to write a long letter of explanation to his bosses and then to the MOH - i politely informed him that if i overspent by $10,000 without my directors knowledge i would be thinking about a new job! And for context my budget is about 70% of his!
We see hospitals being repainted needlessly towards teh end of the budget year to spend CAPEX - ins
I think subject to continued "uninterrupted global economic prosperity", its a good budget. Now, what happens when global growth falters and our GDP shrinks at a time when Government debt is rising? If tax revenues also go down the gurgler then expect to see a lot of these recently announced benefits curtailed at a time when contingent liabilities are steadily rising along with social unrest.
I think it's worth appreciating that "these days are the best of days" and it's wise to treat valuations just about everywhere with suspicion.
Housing market like a cassino; https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sponsored-stories/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503…
lol, Now I know what is corrupting your mind and vision RP ... so you are excused from now on !
If you keep reading this type of one eyed academia trash you will end up on the wrong side of history ! - And if this is what these guys teach in Business schools then we have a problem. For starters, what the hell has the US market to do with us? that is the problem with researchers, little practical experience, a lot of book and data correlation, but very little sense.
This senior lecturer did NOT mention what would happen to the markets when they limit DTI ratio to 6 or 7 , neither he bothered to "think" what would happen if LVR was increased to 50% for investors ...But hey , he can say what he wants as he will still be paid at the end of the month, lol even if it was utter BS.
If you could put 2 and 2 together and get your head around this proposal even you could see the size of the disaster that could happen.
here is some nice bedtime reading for you RP to help you think straight:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12…
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/news/article.cfm?c_id=8&objectid=12…
Oh.. and some useful predictions:
"For your guide, Treasury are forecasting that
average NZ-wide house prices will rise by 2.8% in
the year to June 2019 then 2% the following year,
3.4% in the year to June 2021, and 3.7% the year
after that."
EcoBird, while some of us watch a train wreck approaching, others such as yourself are firmly seated unaware you're running out of stops.
In the event of a crisis, there is no shortage of empty houses that can be presented to market; https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/latest/103024164/is-it-time-to…
Still there is 13,450 Auckland listings on realestate.co.nz. Unlike recent years, 2018 has presented no lull in the winter listing numbers. Just think of the thousands of fresh well presented properties that will be listed come spring. That said, does your calling the July 2017 low still stand yes/no?
It's you who is blind.
Still waiting for the Hickey express https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/experts-pick-further-house-price-decline-…
lol, me too... a year later he was still waiting for the wreck to happen - at a time when the market started acceleration and eventually took off 12 months later - Don't laugh too loud:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/personal-finance/news/article.cfm?c_id=12&ob…
I didn't realise that you became the chicken little of the village RP ...daily calling for the sky will fall !
Enjoy watching your wreck, while we enjoy the gravy train.
Oh ...again this might sooth your pain:
"For your guide, Treasury are forecasting that
average NZ-wide house prices will rise by 2.8% in
the year to June 2019 then 2% the following year,
3.4% in the year to June 2021, and 3.7% the year
after that." Tony Alexander 17 May 2018
FFS several of u need to take your blinkers off.
National left this country in an exceptionally good condition that This COL will severely damage.
Hospitals and education have not been underfunded and if u are worried then get private medical insurance.
It is not up to the government to be providing housing for people as they have never been any good at it!
Stick to the core issues without the housing and we will be ok at the next election when National will bolt in
... for what its worth , I reckon that the Gnats under Mark Mitchell will win back power in 2023 ... but not with Simon Bridges in 2020 ....
As ghastly as this Labour government currently is ( I'll never forgive them for busting up the charter schools , and for wrecking my beloved natural gas industry ) ... I can't see the Gnats finding a coalition partner anytime soon ... they need to wake up to MMP ... it's all about governing together , not going it alone ...
Bridges was incredibly cringeworthy, I felt embarrassed watching it. Jacinda got some zingers in there and was positive and self deprecating while doing it. It shows she is class. Labour don’t get everything right and there are quite few things I’d do different but if they really are as reckless as National say they didn’t show it in this budget. It was very conservative fiscally both in terms of tax and debt.
National left this country in an exceptionally good condition that This COL will severely damage.
Hospitals and education have not been underfunded and if u are worried then get private medical insurance.
I think that kind of epitomises the problem that younger Kiwis have identified. The "F you lot, I've got mine" mentality. The simultaneous denial and tacit acceptance that things are being run down, but it doesn't affect me anyway so, so be it.
The grannies governing for the grannies and selling young Kiwis down the river while insisting their own entitlements remain untouched.
It's interesting how the younger generation often get labelled as lazy and selfish, but you have to ask - where did they learn those traits from? Who is setting the example in this country for them to learn better behaviour from? Watching the 'me' and 'mine' capitalist parents isn't exactly the transformational leadership they need.
... the Labour government has shut down the charter school system .... so that no teachers will be accountable for their " quality " henceforth ... all are snuggled tightly into the state system , into the teachers union ...
No more innovation .... no more private enterprise ... no more performance related remuneration .... teaching is back to where it always was ... under the yoke of state and union control ...
It's an area ripe for disruption. I'd like to see children progress at their own rate with tests available when the child is ready. Biometric verification of identity for sitting tests and automatic advancement once a certain level is reached until the child fails at a level, then Teacher assistance when needed. Individual module results made available to universities, potential employers and the world in general, if the student authorises it. Take away the pass fail stigma and allow employers to select for individual profiles of module achievement. Allow students to continue sitting modules past normal school age. Let's bring this leftie dominated industry into the current age.
I hope we don't rely on AI to teach kids. Human interaction is crucial. I can definitely see the use of AI to monitor the kids (and probably the teachers) and suggest which teaching methods will work better with which kids, but stripping kids of interactions with authority figures that are fellow humans would be a dumb move. Humans are a social animal, last thing we need is kids devoid of meaningful human interaction until they are thrust into the workplace as young adults with no social skills. (I survived engineering school.. we already get too close to this for some)
lets hope they are human - hundreds of teaching vacancies in Auckland - cant be filled no suitable candidates and none on the horizon - aging workforce with a huge number of 60+ and about to retire - and very few actually in training
One thing to announce it - another to deliver - as we are seeing with Kiwibuild - down to 5000 in three years not 30,000 and 80% are just going to be bought off the plan - not new developments or extra houses - just redistributing from private ownership to state -
Same with Police Officers - 800 more - ( historically each new police officer = 1 extra prisoner so 800 new beds needed - standby for new Waikeria prison announcement next week to bury bad U turn in budget news)
For all the aspirations - nothing is being delivered - except 1000 new specialist immigration working visas to pick Kiwi fruit in an area with som eo fthe highest unemployment levels in NZ - go figure
Listening to a radio discussion on the budget I realised this is French Vanilla with a sprinkling of nuts (NZF and Greens). If this is as bad as it gets I can live with it, as they’ve really done nothing. Marking time. I wonder how long it will take the COL acolytes to work out that they’ve been done over.
Next year Ex pat, when there are no more delays and no more new announcements to make , and when all is over with the blame broken record ... all this crap has to reach the boring point ... they can well keep pulling the strings but unless they deliver, its all over dover.
For the 2017/18 budget we spent around $17.5 billion and this government plans to spend an extra $3.2 over four years i.e. $800 per year. If inflation is 2% (health is usually much more than general inflation) this means the Gov. needed to put in an extra $350m to just keep pace with inflation. So this Gov. is putting in an additional $450m this year or an extra 2.6%. While $450m is a lot of money it is only an extra 2.6% - this doesn't actually seem that big of a deal. If an extra 2.6% funding resolves the crises it doesn't seem like much of a crises at all in fact.
According to Interest.co.nz figrues the Gov. is spending less on health for the next year that the previous https://www.interest.co.nz/news/93792/budget-2018-summary-all-spending-… Am I missing something?
That’s a mistake. It’s 8.1% more comparing this wars announced budget to last years announcement. However, something like $950M of the increase is capital so the operating increase is lower. DHBs are getting about $540M extra. In dollar terms it’s higher than national but lower as a percentage increase.
Bollocks Fritz , Maybe you should visit a second -world facility to get some perspective , instead of making outrageous comments calling our Hospitals second world
I am sure the good hardworking Doctors and Nurses at North Shore Hospital would be most upset to hear you suggest that they run their facility like a hospital in Khazakstan , Turkmenistan , Pakistan , Turkey, Indonesia, Rumania , Bosnia or some other SECOND WORLD country .
Tony's last report: fresh from the press
http://tonyalexander.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/WO-May-17-2018.pdf
lol, here is the best part, in case you missed it:
"For your guide, Treasury are forecasting that
average NZ-wide house prices will rise by 2.8% in
the year to June 2019 then 2% the following year,
3.4% in the year to June 2021, and 3.7% the year
after that. "
Wow !! add 1% to each of these for Auckland and you get 2-5% pa rise as I predicted few months ago ....:)
You are welcome.
Even though, still great ...,
Translation: No Crash , no 10% Drop, no 20% Drop, no nonsense ! ... treasury predictions, not mine !
So FHBs holding for another year or two will need to add another 2 - 4 % of purchase price to their deposit - Is that a smart move ?
I asked my accountant 20 years ago: is it a good time to buy a property?
he replied: It is always a good time to buy property !
that was the most profitable and life changing advice I ever had ... and it is still true today.
So, Keep adjusting everything to inflation IO, seems counting cents makes you feel good, while others are counting Dollars.
If I Were A Borrower What Would I Do?
"Nothing new really apart from some strong retail spending data in the United States causing a
decent jump in ten year US government bond yields above 3%. This might place some mild upward pressure on NZ bank fixed borrowing and therefore lending rates. If so this would be
consistent with the view we have all been expressing for a long time regarding tightening US
monetary policy slowly pushing NZ fixed interest rates higher. "
He says mild pressure, is this just rhetoric from a bank employee?
So interest rates will likely grow, wonder how that will impact people who have million dollar loans, and most of their income is paying off debt. Wonder if they have kids to send to school, feed and clothe. Will this impact on their disposable income.
Some will say who cares, eat less avocados.
It would be more appropriate to subtract a few % for Auckland from the nationwide price change going by recent trends. In which case, essentially flat for a few years and falling in real terms. Seems like a decent outcome, FHBs can catch up with rising incomes, property owners aren't savaged but recent investors will have to put up with small losses.
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