By Alex Tarrant
The final Newshub-Reid Research poll before Saturday's election shows National ahead of Labour, although Winston Peters is King-or-Queen-maker when you add the Greens to Labour's position.
National on 45.8% was down 1.5 points from a week ago. They would get 56 seats in a 122-seat Parliament on these figures. This means the Maori Party's two projected seats from electorate wins (they're polling down 0.7 points at 0.4%) and ACT's one seat from Epsom (flat at 0.6%) wouldn't be enough to give National the 62 seats required.
Labour on 37.3% was down 0.5 points - 45 seats. The Greens on 7.1% (up 2.2) would return 9 MPs, giving that bloc 54 seats.
This means New Zealand First's 7.1% - up 1.1pts; 9 seats - could get either National or Labour-Greens over the line. This poll broke the mold by showing New Zealand First strengthening - they had been trending down in the major polls recently, with last night's 1 News Colmar Brunton showing them hovering around 5% (the actual reading was 4.9%).
Meanwhile, TOP was down 0.7 points at 0.9%.
On the preferred PM stakes, Bill English was up slightly at 34.7%. Jacinda Ardern was down slightly at 29.6%.
The New Zealand dollar initially rose a fifth of a USc after the result, but had soon pared back most of that gain within 20 minutes.
140 Comments
To say it another way, because several glasses of Waipara 2007 aged Riesling will do this to you;
Very few politicians survive to maturity. Because in politics the Darwinian principle of 'survival of the fittest' is very strong and most are metaphorically eaten alive at a very young age.
For these very few, who make it to maturity, one of natures true wonders awaits, and it happens in what we call a successful election year.
If you were to follow one of these election years you would likely never suspect what is about to happen.
Up until the very last moment, and sometimes beyond, the politician continues to emit the shrill cry of the ideologue. Usually every brighter and even in the full and stark light of realities cruel gaze.
But on election day all politicians enter what we call a "cocoon". An amazing vessel of transformation, woven of the dreams in their heart and the platitudes of their followers. Even now, most will emerge from this cocoon unchanged.
But for those glorious and selected few the possibility of a successful election will magically transform them from their ugly ideologue into a new creature and they will emerge from shedding their ideology , having become dressed in the splendour and wonder of a new garment we call pragmatism.
Once the new wings of pragmatism are dry they will fly off into new world full of endless possibilities and do things that, we who saw them in their juvenile stage, might think they were incapable of.
Such is the wonder of this thing we call an election year.
I believe we look closely in the next few days we might be about to behold this wondrous event of nature.
There was an amusing interview on RNZ this evening originally recorded in1963 with 3 charming very elderly ladies in their 90's who voted for the first time in 1893.
http://www.radionz.co.nz/collections/Women-the-vote-and-equality/audio/…
Dick Seddon was vigorously opposed to the the women's movement. But when he later congratulated them on winning the franchise, he was accused by one, "you are nothing but a hypocrite. His response was, "no I'm a politician, I always side with the winning side".
Yes, poor old Kel the interview butcher looking a bit bewildered these days after being slapped down and muzzled by the Frau Kapitan.
Winnie deputy PM, the Greens earnestly lecturing the old dog to be a better person and a cabinet of greenhorns. I'd pay money to watch the old tusker toy with that coalition of the confused.
Winston will not ridicule himself in his twilight years and collaborate with the Greens .. he is no fool to get in bed with those who are at the extreme left of the political spectrum and
to be daily pissed off around the cabinet table with a bunch of radical greenies !!
I Stand to be corrected though ...
You do stand to be corrected. If you thing the Greens are extreme left you need to get out a bit more. They are about as left as many of the northern European mainstream political parties.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Far-left_politics
The narrative that social democrats are extreme left has been peddled by media for a long time, it's not just here, you can see it in the US, UK, AU courtesy of the likes of Daily Mail, Fox etc... Unfortunately they have mass reach and their audiences are a bit dim, which is a worrying combination.
Never has been a wasted vote.NZ First brings a mediating affect to both side of the political spectrum I would`ve thought.Not too left ,and not too right.And to boot brings wisdom of the years to ideologues of both persuasions.For me the smaller parties bring back a democracy to our system of government.
I think the Chinese Government hacked your site :)
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Just voted for Winston, at the polling booth, jokingly said "vote Winnie" to the horror of the administration people, but everyone who was there unanimously turned around and said don't worry we have just voted for him, then I went to the local supermarket and everyone at the check out queue including the cashier said they had voted NZ First, and do you know why - immigration !!
My hope with WP no matter who he goes with, if he truely is Kingmaker. WP will go with whoever gives him what he wants in terms of immigration. If he doesnt then he will never get another vote again. To me WP is the immigration guy, thats his key policy. If he doesnt follow through on immigration then his party is dead.
The more party votes he gets the greater the negotiating power he will have and it will then be down to determining the extent of the concessions the two majors will be willing to make - and it will take time to wear them down - don't be surprised if it take 4 weeks to wear Ardern or English down - in my opinion English will be the first to crack
From an interview with Winnie on Stuff this morning:
"But if he had to think about it, what would matter to him in negotiations?
The economy is what everything rests on, says Peters.
He can't make out how National can say the economy is doing well when he also says they underfund expenditure because there isn't enough cash in the coffers.
"It can't be both ways".
Is his immigration policy to turn down the tap on the number let into New Zealand crucial in negotiations? Peters says it has to be because it's pivotal in addressing issues around housing and pressures on infrastructure and jobs."
For those willing to think - immigration is central to most key aspects of life in NZ
Education, Health, Housing, Transport, Food, Imports, Consumption, Schools, Infrastructure
Amazed it sank below the horizon over the past 4 weeks - shunted aside by the tax scare
Some people say vote the lesser of two evils... But I can't bring myself to vote for the guy in blue driving NZ's truck into a brick wall, nor the gal in red attempting to drive NZ's train into an irrigation dam. The old fella in black who will likely get to choose the next government seems to be high on something during that RNZ interview with Guyon...
Lack of democracy based on the history of both Nat's and Labours rejection of referenda, leads me to vote Conservatives this election cycle. I really like their law and justice policy as well. Shame they aren't looking close to entering parliament, but I firmly believe NZers deserve better from our governments than what Nats or Labour have had to offer in the last decade. Come on NZ, break this FPP race that we have in a MMP electoral system. Let's return to true democracy and integrity and honour, and a truly proportional house of parliament.
that "true democracy and integrity and honour, and a truly proportional house of parliament." will unfortunately lead to chaos ....and nothing could be done or legislated!
Would be like a Hot argument in the pub on a friday night ... What you are seeking could be very rare in the world, if it was ever possible you would have seen it in a much more civilised and advanced democratic countries than us .. like the scandinavians ...
Better not lose your vote mate! at least make it count in a WRECK of your choice
How would a truly proportional house of parliament lead to chaos? possibly with some of the current breed of politicians, but there are many decent people in NZ who know how to work with other people rather than just antagonize each other and throw toys like kids. NZ was, is (to some degree) a great country, and we could be better.
I know some people will see it as a wasted vote, and being entitled to different views is one of the great things in a democracy. Picturing myself voting and supporting a "wreck" is a lost vote to me. But all the best for polling day :) will be eating my popcorn watching JC and guyon tomorrow evening.
Labour are tied with the Greens .. they will not sell them down the river -- that would be suicidal .... they are a couple and will deal with the others that way ... Labour will not ditch the Greens for NZF ... ...sh*t that would be a hilarious show to watch actually !!
Extremely High immigration and 16% of NZ children live in a household where neither parent has a job. One of the highest rates in the developed world. FACT
Immigration is a huge issue this election
It is interesting that NZ net immigration rate is 10 times UKs target rate (if you factor into account population differences)
NZ net immigration rate 72k
UK Target net Immigration rate 100k
Based on NZs population if we were to use UKs target we should have 7k a year max.
Brexit, ... Trump, ... Winston Peters, ... we follow a global trend of voters against a hidden undemocratic policy of high immigration and open access global purchasing of NZ land-based assets.
Why wouldn't NZers also protest, and vote that they want to place NZ first.
"The Great Kiwi Tax Break: Leaked Infomercial" on YouTube
This video is great and highlights the issues NZ faces.
Ouch that is a bad Youtube view score. Even by NZ standards a little over 600 means the channels for sharing it were limited. Yes investment housing has been the main form of retirement investment for local NZ, and stable overseas investment for a while but that video is a bit much.
As Jim Bolger said "bugger the pollsters"think National lost in that election so Party Vote National to keep stable govt otherwise nothing will get done in next 3 years , the country will be in liquidation broke under Labour THEN National will have to pick up bits in 3 years time
Most of the interesting bits of Yangs application are redacted - why?
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11924996
Yang has said naming the "partnership" universities was not a false declaration and was required if he was to leave China.
"It is not a false declaration. When I left China I was asked by the system to use my partnership universities. That is why I used those universities in applying for jobs, even [at] the University of Auckland.
"That's my CV. It is not that I am deliberately trying to cover up. It's because the system asked me to use the partner university. That is the reason."
So NZ is prepared to ignore what the Chinese told him to hide - sounds Ok to me. Presume WP will be Ok with it too.
When I left China I was asked by the system to use my partnership universities..That's my CV. It is not that I am deliberately trying to cover up. It's because the system asked me to use the partner university. That is the reason.
And isn't that the whole point in a nutshell? We have a member of Parliament still under the control and influence of the CCP.
We can feel for him, but that does not diminish the fact of what he is telling us - that the ruling elite of his homeland, the totalitarian regime that it is, forces its CCP members to do things its way - forever. And they obey.
Even after they have been granted the safe harbour of citizenship elsewhere.
Yeah, weird... "I didn't write that on my CV because my government told me not to when I left the country, they told me to write something else instead so I did. Totally nothing to hide, though, nope!"
Lying on your CV and saying it's because a government told you to...well, that's neat.
And the NZ Parliament website no longer links to that CV;
https://www.parliament.nz/en/mps-and-electorates/members-of-parliament/…
Link to 'National Party biography' at the bottom of the page gives you this;
https://www.national.org.nz/jianyang
(But you can still donate on that page!!!)
Here's the bio:
https://jianyang.national.org.nz/about_jian
They're not exactly shouting his true work experience from the rooftops, are they.
The Bio:
"Dr Jian Yang has been a National List MP since 2011.
Jian’s entry into Parliament follows a distinguished academic career. He was previously a Senior Lecturer of International Relations at the University of Auckland and Associate Dean (Postgraduate) of the Faculty of Arts and Director of the China Studies Centre at the New Zealand Asia Institute.
He was also Chair of the Auckland Branch of the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs (NZIIA) from 2002 until 2011, after serving as its deputy chair in 2001. The NZIIA is an independent, non-profit making organisation.
Jian completed his tertiary education in China before receiving his MA and PhD in International Relations at the Australian National University (ANU). He came to the University of Auckland in March 1999.
As a regular commentator on international and domestic affairs for local Chinese media, Jian is well known and respected amongst the Chinese community in New Zealand.
Jian is an active part of the National Party Ethnic Communities Caucus Committee. The Ethnic Communities caucus committee works closely with the Minister for Ethnic Communities to ensure New Zealand builds a strong and inclusive nation.
Like many Chinese New Zealanders, Jian shares the values of the National Party, particularly equal citizenship and equal opportunity, individual freedom and choice, personal responsibility, and reward for achievement. As a father of two children, he wants to provide a safe and prosperous environment for his kids to grow up.
At Parliament, Jian has been Deputy Chair of the Health Select Committee, member of the Commerce Select Committee and the Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Select Committee. He is currently a Parliamentary Private Secretary for Ethnic Communities, chair of the Education and Science Select Committee, and a member of the Transport and Industrial Relations Select Committee."
All part of the process. Have a look around next time you're on the plane to Shanghai - regularly there seem to be groups from the Auckland council, ex-mayors, ex-cabinet ministers, National Party reps, or the Universities, & Govt depts etc. What is the nature of their business dealings? Do the public know what exactly is being traded?
Quite right. Double speak twaddle, almost completely lacking any local NZ journalistic critique. It's the sort of rubbish you can read in the People's Daily, which the NZ media have emulated for some time now.
What really concerns me is that NZ is in so deep with China at this point (much deeper than being widely reported in NZ) that any attempts to change political direction could well see China "defend its interests", as is occurring already in the South China Sea. China is very territorial and NZ politicians and diplomats have worked diligently for years to place NZ squarely within China's influential territory. Worse, they have made NZ an important strategic resource (e.g. food production, military near-space balloon launches, back door access to 5 Eyes intelligence) of the State. Too important to lose and too small to brook any nonsense from.
NZ has been breathtakingly naïve in this regard. It has woefully neglected to exercise any caution in its own security. As we can see in the South China Sea and in the proxy-war rhetoric in the Pacific, sides will soon need to be taken. Our reckless flirting with China has made this inevitability increasingly perilous.
Encapsulates it fairly well:
Jacindamania isn’t about personality at all – it's a collective sigh of relief that we might finally have a kind of leadership that reflects our core values as New Zealanders. A chance for a country that’s truly ‘clean and green;’ for honesty, decency and kindness in our public as well as our private lives.
National have run a classically neo-liberal campaign, based on cynical self-interest. It was sad watching Bill English in the last leader’s debate – a fundamentally decent man lying through his teeth to try and win the election.
We deserve better from our leaders than this kind of Faustian bargain.
The choice in this election is stark. Neo-liberalism has failed. It's time to hand over the reins to a new generation, and let them shape the future.
Did you decide that because she was a Dame or because she was a woman? Wait no because you read her bio and found she is one of NZs few highly distinguished scientists specializing in anthropology. Sure you can say knowledge of the Maori and Pacific people is not worth much but I am sure most NZders would disagree with you, many of them also distinguished Doctors. You do not need to fear educated people. Many of them have diverse views on politics which are not as simple minded as left vs right.
I haven't read her work but I am currently digesting Crosby's work on inter-iwi conflict as my wife has Maori ancestry and I want to pass on more knowledge of her tribe's history to our children, but that has noting to do with why I posted. My point was that Dame Salmond is opining on Bill English's character when it's highly likely her politics have always been left so there is nothing new in her view I.e. It has no import to me, I expect it.
As for educated people, who said I fear them? I just don't share their political views and we are about to see how many of my fellow New Zealanders share my view on the Left.
I am not a Labour voter, why should I? Her body language sometimes gives away a lack of surety, but it does not suggest lying, unlike Bill English, almost childlike in his inability to hide his lies. She has balls of steel, though, don't you worry about that, but you need them in politics as well you know.
And a former New Zealander of the Year;
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/8366898/Dame-Anne-wins-NZer-of-the-Year
Given the Maori whakapapa in your family, Expat, you'll find this article by her really interesting;
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11644786
First and foremost, she is an historian - and I think what she is saying in the original article you commented on is that she sees history in the making - just as David Lange's rise to power in 1984 led to history in the making.
To me the portion posted is pure political rhetoric.
As for the Whakapapa, my Wife's iwi have a 'challenging' part in pre TOW inter iwi conflict to comprehend . I seek to understand exactly what they did and why so I can pass the info to my children. I need different points of view and historical context. Suffice to say I need to tie that down before I can move to other aspects of their heritage.
You missed the whole point of the article - the first statement being:
This election has not been a contest between left and right, but between different generations and philosophies.
Neo-liberalism has been the economic model (i.e., philosophy) practiced by political parties of both left/liberal and right/conservative persuasions for decades. So it as a socioeconomic prescription is not a differentiating factor.
The way I interpret Dame Anne is that she is saying this election will be decided not on left vs right but rather on renewal vs status quo.
It's certainly how I have conceived it too: is NZ ready to pass the baton to a new generation?
Can't wait - hoping to be able to say to my kids - well done, you're now in control - be good to NZ and the world!
The amusing thing is that all the media have tried every angle to kill WP off and had no success... and in return they try their best to not challenge the current government..talk about a free ride..
His supporters are as sticky as and I expect he will maintain his percentage and have a role in the next government. Polls can say what they like however they have not all died off in the past month..
Guyon Espiner interview was never going to do anything with his usual inflammatory one liners resulting in the usual inflammatory unstructured response...people said how great it was...listen and it just seems a total waste of time...
Speckles - I did listen to that interview and was astonished. It was embarressingly poor for Peters and anyone who has voted from him either didn't hear the interview, or is voting for him over one issue (probably migration) - its certainly not economic management or knowing his numbers. Basically he takes the public as fools with no attempt to justify those numbers.
Free speech is now illegal in NZ
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11924968
It's a tricky one that, there is a very strict rule around patient confidentiality, even to the degree that unless you agree your own records can't be passed between departments. I guess unless you really knew the people that were referenced you'd have little chance to identify them.
Irrespective of all that, it's a harrowing read, quite disturbing the under-class of poverty that exists in NZ.
Any one see the Auckland captain last night - after the game!
"Its hard for me because I'm going away"...
Love that winning Auckland thinking!
A star studded team, pantsed by a group of determined southern men! Playing the basics well, each doing their jobs!
Its not a metaphor, its the way it is. :)
I wonder if there will be some silent Winnie supporters on these recent polls, people who are a bit embarrassed to admit over the phone they're going to vote NZ First, so say they're going to vote National instead? Greens tend to do well on the special and overseas votes, boosted them an MP last time to the detriment of National.
would love that to be true for the reason is if inside parliament they can push there ideas from inside, and while most would be rejected they can make some change .
just look at the greens, both major parties now have a green agenda to combat the green vote and without them around that would not be so
TOP is definitely the party of fresh ideas. And the country sorely needs these. Any sort of creditable showing this election will, I suggest, position them to rob both Labour and the Greens of votes next time round. There are even numerous National and other voters concerned with social principles rather than the motives of greed and fear. More power to their movement. I hope they take a sound percentage this time - sufficient to get a decent voice in Parliament and their messages better heard.
Surprised how many Green friends are switching to TOP. The common theme is the Turei debacle and and how terribly Clendon and Graham were treated. TOP is the only party which comes close to their Green values.
I'm picking Greens will be consigned to history this weekend and TOP will take their place.
Property speculators are responsible for a considerable measure of problems created by this horrific poverty. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11924968.
The abnormally ridiculously high levels of immigration created the conditions exploited by the spivs - spivs are never front-runners - they are ruthless scavengers that travel in behind the front-runners - the only thing the speculators are responsible is for holding up the prices longer than reasonable - you will have noticed the spivs have gone dead quiet in Auckland since the money-launderers have had their wings clipped by the CCP and also by the banks for supplying fraudulent information - as that tide has gone out the spivs have capitulated and gone PDQ - unwilling to hold prices up themselves - of course the spiv speculators have never splashed out over the top money-at-any-cost prices like the launderers do
Winston's demands will be right up front on day 1 - delays won't be his
Procrastination will be either Jacinda's or Bill's as they work out who is the more desperate of the 2
Why do you think any delays will be the fault of Winston - delays will reflect the un-willingness of the major parties to make concessions - and the only solution to that is to let them stew on it as they finally determine which of the two will make the most concessions - and - I reckon Bill will be the first to crack - but it will take time and if it takes 4 weeks then blame Bill not Winston because his demands will be right up front on day 1
Like Brexit and Trump I suspect that a Labour landslide surprise will be the outcome tomorrow. The elderly, the young, the lower and the middle income earners and even the business sector have hopefully seen through the lies and deception of English and Joyce. Fingers crossed it is a clear cut outcome with no need for Winnie in the mix.
To all those good burghers who have not voted already. Please vote early tomorrow, unless you plan to vote National. For the Nats have a good lie in, it's deserved. Bill is a dead cert and there is no rush to vote. The weather looks good so fire up the barbie at lunchtime. Open up the liquor cabinet early as you know how damn greedy some of the guests can be (mostly just the bragging property flippers) and crack a few cold ones. By the end of the afternoon you will be perfectly set for a great show.
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