Peters Kingmaker in final Newshub poll

Winston Peters holds the balance for National vs Labour-Greens in Newshub-Reid poll; Greens recover, NZ First up slightly; Bill English up in preferred PM stakes

21st Sep 17, 6:30pm by Alex Tarrant

By Alex Tarrant

The final Newshub-Reid Research poll before Saturday's election shows National ahead of Labour, although Winston Peters is King-or-Queen-maker when you add the Greens to Labour's position.

National on 45.8% was down 1.5 points from a week ago. They would get 56 seats in a 122-seat Parliament on these figures. This means the Maori Party's two projected seats from electorate wins (they're polling down 0.7 points at 0.4%) and ACT's one seat from Epsom (flat at 0.6%) wouldn't be enough to give National the 62 seats required.

Labour on 37.3% was down 0.5 points - 45 seats. The Greens on 7.1% (up 2.2) would return 9 MPs, giving that bloc 54 seats.

This means New Zealand First's 7.1% - up 1.1pts; 9 seats - could get either National or Labour-Greens over the line. This poll broke the mold by showing New Zealand First strengthening - they had been trending down in the major polls recently, with last night's 1 News Colmar Brunton showing them hovering around 5% (the actual reading was 4.9%).

Meanwhile, TOP was down 0.7 points at 0.9%.

On the preferred PM stakes, Bill English was up slightly at 34.7%. Jacinda Ardern was down slightly at 29.6%.

The New Zealand dollar initially rose a fifth of a USc after the result, but had soon pared back most of that gain within 20 minutes.

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140 Comments

by Ralph | 21st Sep 17, 6:35pm 1505975712

All politicians are ideologues. Until election day, and then they are pragmatists.

by Ralph | 21st Sep 17, 7:19pm 1505978344

To say it another way, because several glasses of Waipara 2007 aged Riesling will do this to you;

Very few politicians survive to maturity. Because in politics the Darwinian principle of 'survival of the fittest' is very strong and most are metaphorically eaten alive at a very young age.

For these very few, who make it to maturity, one of natures true wonders awaits, and it happens in what we call a successful election year.

If you were to follow one of these election years you would likely never suspect what is about to happen.

Up until the very last moment, and sometimes beyond, the politician continues to emit the shrill cry of the ideologue. Usually every brighter and even in the full and stark light of realities cruel gaze.

But on election day all politicians enter what we call a "cocoon". An amazing vessel of transformation, woven of the dreams in their heart and the platitudes of their followers. Even now, most will emerge from this cocoon unchanged.

But for those glorious and selected few the possibility of a successful election will magically transform them from their ugly ideologue into a new creature and they will emerge from shedding their ideology , having become dressed in the splendour and wonder of a new garment we call pragmatism.

Once the new wings of pragmatism are dry they will fly off into new world full of endless possibilities and do things that, we who saw them in their juvenile stage, might think they were incapable of.

Such is the wonder of this thing we call an election year.

I believe we look closely in the next few days we might be about to behold this wondrous event of nature.

by paashaas | 21st Sep 17, 7:27pm 1505978850

Yours is an optimistic view that is most likely to be correct . However there is always a tiny worrying possibility that it might not be ; perhaps I just need more Riesling.

by Ralph | 21st Sep 17, 7:50pm 1505980212

More Reisling usually helps.

by kiwimm | 22nd Sep 17, 11:00am 1506034811

Those Pegasus Bay library releases bring out the best in me too

by middleman1 | 21st Sep 17, 7:27pm 1505978850

Nicely written Ralph. Not confident Peters will change much.

by Ralph | 21st Sep 17, 7:50pm 1505980239

Thanks middleman.

by Macadder | 21st Sep 17, 10:03pm 1505988188

There was an amusing interview on RNZ this evening originally recorded in1963 with 3 charming very elderly ladies in their 90's who voted for the first time in 1893.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/collections/Women-the-vote-and-equality/audio/…

Dick Seddon was vigorously opposed to the the women's movement. But when he later congratulated them on winning the franchise, he was accused by one, "you are nothing but a hypocrite. His response was, "no I'm a politician, I always side with the winning side".

by Ralph | 22nd Sep 17, 11:38am 1506037114

Nice work Macadder.

by Conrad | 22nd Sep 17, 11:46am 1506037602

What a great listen. I can only hope I'm half as lucid when I'm 90...

by PocketAces | 21st Sep 17, 6:46pm 1505976361

Maori party know that if they want to survive they cannot go with the Nats again, they need to be counted into Labours camp now.

by middleman1 | 21st Sep 17, 7:28pm 1505978925

But Davis wants Maori affairs. So a bit of problem with that. Captains call coming up.

by Eco Bird | 21st Sep 17, 8:00pm 1505980824

lol, if they lose, the next captain Call will be a boot out ...!

by middleman1 | 21st Sep 17, 8:21pm 1505982085

Yes, poor old Kel the interview butcher looking a bit bewildered these days after being slapped down and muzzled by the Frau Kapitan.

Winnie deputy PM, the Greens earnestly lecturing the old dog to be a better person and a cabinet of greenhorns. I'd pay money to watch the old tusker toy with that coalition of the confused.

by PocketAces | 22nd Sep 17, 7:00am 1506020402

Kelvin Davis does not seem to have the ability of the likes of Key, Smith, Joyce, to a lesser extent, English and others in the National Party to lie and pretend. That could be turned into an advantage.

by Keeppositive | 22nd Sep 17, 10:25am 1506032744

@PocketAces, maybe you need some of the Riesling to lighten up. You seem to bear some deep grudges and resentment towards those fine, upstanding and esteemed members of the National Party. But then again that fits with the politics of envy - Labour's cornerstone.

by PocketAces | 22nd Sep 17, 3:46pm 1506051960

Politics of envy? I guess that stupid phrase helps the greedy maintain a semblence of a conscience. Politics of greed is very, very ugly

by blue meanie | 21st Sep 17, 6:51pm 1505976666

Winston as Queen maker... bugger!

by middleman1 | 21st Sep 17, 7:31pm 1505979079

This one eyed rightie shares your sentiment. But hopefully Bill will find him a warm verandah somewhere with hot milk and wine biscuits on the hour.

by Averageman | 21st Sep 17, 6:57pm 1505977074

So immigration firehose clamping and offshore ownership ban just got confirmed. Picking Lab/NZF Govt. Specuvestor debt junkies feeling any stomach cramps yet...?

by vl1975nz | 21st Sep 17, 9:10pm 1505985036

Truth

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/97075642/greed-not-taxes-will-…

by Yvil | 22nd Sep 17, 9:59am 1506031199

Lab/NZF cannot form a government

by Eco Bird | 21st Sep 17, 6:54pm 1505976857

Oh dear, two polls in a row in the final days showing the same trend ... it is becoming interesting but maybe not a photo finish as expected !!

by Eco Bird | 21st Sep 17, 7:00pm 1505977233

Winston will not ridicule himself in his twilight years and collaborate with the Greens .. he is no fool to get in bed with those who are at the extreme left of the political spectrum and
to be daily pissed off around the cabinet table with a bunch of radical greenies !!
I Stand to be corrected though ...

by blue meanie | 21st Sep 17, 7:15pm 1505978101

I suspect you are right EB. But however it pans out, it certainly has been interesting.

by Yvil | 22nd Sep 17, 10:01am 1506031281

Winston King maker or not Blue Meanie, our bet is getting interesting again

by Macadder | 21st Sep 17, 10:11pm 1505988677

You do stand to be corrected. If you thing the Greens are extreme left you need to get out a bit more. They are about as left as many of the northern European mainstream political parties.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Far-left_politics

by Solidname | 22nd Sep 17, 11:52am 1506037931

The narrative that social democrats are extreme left has been peddled by media for a long time, it's not just here, you can see it in the US, UK, AU courtesy of the likes of Daily Mail, Fox etc... Unfortunately they have mass reach and their audiences are a bit dim, which is a worrying combination.

by Chris-M | 21st Sep 17, 7:07pm 1505977629

National, Act, Maori, NZ First 4 parties and complicated
Labour, Greens, NZ First - more simple

by paashaas | 21st Sep 17, 7:11pm 1505977899

but of course you do not need Act/Maori - Nats + NZFirst is the simplest by far.

by Chris-M | 21st Sep 17, 8:32pm 1505982728

You beat me to it, while watching telly I just realised and was just going to add that. Either way Winnie gets his rail to Marsden Point.

by MortgageBelt | 21st Sep 17, 8:48pm 1505983680

So a vote for NZ First won't be wasted, as NZF will be in Government either with Labour or National.

by alex | 22nd Sep 17, 12:48pm 1506041303

Never has been a wasted vote.NZ First brings a mediating affect to both side of the political spectrum I would`ve thought.Not too left ,and not too right.And to boot brings wisdom of the years to ideologues of both persuasions.For me the smaller parties bring back a democracy to our system of government.

by middleman1 | 21st Sep 17, 7:51pm 1505980319

Chris-M. Describing Labour/NZF & the Greens as simple is a bit harsh.

by Chris-M | 21st Sep 17, 8:32pm 1505982746

\ (•◡•) /

by Yvil | 22nd Sep 17, 10:03am 1506031387

National/NZF more simple than Labour/Green/NZF

by vl1975nz | 21st Sep 17, 7:18pm 1505978308

https://thestandard.org.nz/is-nz-doomed-to-lying-politics-now/

by Ex Expat | 21st Sep 17, 7:43pm 1505979788

I think the Chinese Government hacked your site :)

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by Eco Bird | 21st Sep 17, 8:03pm 1505980988

lol...indeed

by Trying to build | 21st Sep 17, 7:55pm 1505980537

Just voted for Winston, at the polling booth, jokingly said "vote Winnie" to the horror of the administration people, but everyone who was there unanimously turned around and said don't worry we have just voted for him, then I went to the local supermarket and everyone at the check out queue including the cashier said they had voted NZ First, and do you know why - immigration !!

by Eco Bird | 21st Sep 17, 8:06pm 1505981176

Haha, if that is true, then there will be so many disappointed voters when WP softens his stance on immigration as part of his coalition deal with the Nats on Monday next week ...Ooops

by Trying to build | 21st Sep 17, 8:16pm 1505981781

Gosh, I hope not I am praying National gets in and Winston has some leverage on immigration, if not, I have followed my heart and done my best.

by Eco Bird | 21st Sep 17, 8:19pm 1505981940

Good on you mate ... but politics is politics ...

by swapacrate | 21st Sep 17, 8:44pm 1505983442

My hope with WP no matter who he goes with, if he truely is Kingmaker. WP will go with whoever gives him what he wants in terms of immigration. If he doesnt then he will never get another vote again. To me WP is the immigration guy, thats his key policy. If he doesnt follow through on immigration then his party is dead.

by Trying to build | 21st Sep 17, 9:00pm 1505984418

Exactly, that is why I have voted for him, I truly believe he has honest intentions regarding the betterment of New Zealanders and if he has to negotiate between parties to achieve that, then so be it.

by two otherguys | 22nd Sep 17, 8:30am 1506025831

The more party votes he gets the greater the negotiating power he will have and it will then be down to determining the extent of the concessions the two majors will be willing to make - and it will take time to wear them down - don't be surprised if it take 4 weeks to wear Ardern or English down - in my opinion English will be the first to crack

by Trying to build | 22nd Sep 17, 9:37am 1506029828

I am counting on this, but I suppose he will get bad press, when in fact he will just be exercising good negotiating skills and I hope he does not flinch until he sees the white of their eyes

by Doris | 22nd Sep 17, 8:43am 1506026590

From an interview with Winnie on Stuff this morning:

"But if he had to think about it, what would matter to him in negotiations?

The economy is what everything rests on, says Peters.

He can't make out how National can say the economy is doing well when he also says they underfund expenditure because there isn't enough cash in the coffers.

"It can't be both ways".

Is his immigration policy to turn down the tap on the number let into New Zealand crucial in negotiations? Peters says it has to be because it's pivotal in addressing issues around housing and pressures on infrastructure and jobs."

by two otherguys | 22nd Sep 17, 9:07am 1506028050

For those willing to think - immigration is central to most key aspects of life in NZ

Education, Health, Housing, Transport, Food, Imports, Consumption, Schools, Infrastructure

Amazed it sank below the horizon over the past 4 weeks - shunted aside by the tax scare

by sharetrader | 21st Sep 17, 8:20pm 1505982017

that would not happen at my supermarket, they would not vote for someone that might stop them bringing in family

by Trying to build | 22nd Sep 17, 9:26am 1506029183

Yep, it is now or never

by Macadder | 21st Sep 17, 10:15pm 1505988940

Not shopping at Farro any more?

by Trying to build | 22nd Sep 17, 9:24am 1506029098

Truly devastated that Farro has gone belly up, their Xmas turkey was the best

by Solidname | 22nd Sep 17, 10:43am 1506033803

Never fear, Nosh has gone, Farro is still trading.

by Yvil | 22nd Sep 17, 10:04am 1506031460

WOW, so NZF will be able to form government alone !

by midgetkiwi | 21st Sep 17, 7:57pm 1505980620

Some people say vote the lesser of two evils... But I can't bring myself to vote for the guy in blue driving NZ's truck into a brick wall, nor the gal in red attempting to drive NZ's train into an irrigation dam. The old fella in black who will likely get to choose the next government seems to be high on something during that RNZ interview with Guyon...
Lack of democracy based on the history of both Nat's and Labours rejection of referenda, leads me to vote Conservatives this election cycle. I really like their law and justice policy as well. Shame they aren't looking close to entering parliament, but I firmly believe NZers deserve better from our governments than what Nats or Labour have had to offer in the last decade. Come on NZ, break this FPP race that we have in a MMP electoral system. Let's return to true democracy and integrity and honour, and a truly proportional house of parliament.

by Eco Bird | 21st Sep 17, 8:14pm 1505981658

that "true democracy and integrity and honour, and a truly proportional house of parliament." will unfortunately lead to chaos ....and nothing could be done or legislated!

Would be like a Hot argument in the pub on a friday night ... What you are seeking could be very rare in the world, if it was ever possible you would have seen it in a much more civilised and advanced democratic countries than us .. like the scandinavians ...

Better not lose your vote mate! at least make it count in a WRECK of your choice

by midgetkiwi | 22nd Sep 17, 7:53pm 1506066810

How would a truly proportional house of parliament lead to chaos? possibly with some of the current breed of politicians, but there are many decent people in NZ who know how to work with other people rather than just antagonize each other and throw toys like kids. NZ was, is (to some degree) a great country, and we could be better.
I know some people will see it as a wasted vote, and being entitled to different views is one of the great things in a democracy. Picturing myself voting and supporting a "wreck" is a lost vote to me. But all the best for polling day :) will be eating my popcorn watching JC and guyon tomorrow evening.

by PocketAces | 22nd Sep 17, 6:27am 1506018429

Conservatives?? Good grief

by Mark L | 21st Sep 17, 8:10pm 1505981449

A Labour/NZ first minority govt I think. Do you really think that the greens would bring it down?

by Eco Bird | 21st Sep 17, 8:17pm 1505981852

Labour are tied with the Greens .. they will not sell them down the river -- that would be suicidal .... they are a couple and will deal with the others that way ... Labour will not ditch the Greens for NZF ... ...sh*t that would be a hilarious show to watch actually !!

by delboy | 21st Sep 17, 8:41pm 1505983304

The Greens are always the bridesmaid and never the bride.

In this election, like every other, one thing is guaranteed the Greens will be locked out of Cabinet.

by PocketAces | 21st Sep 17, 8:36pm 1505983012

What a pity, they are the only ones who have the policies to see this country moving forward in a modern and worthwhile way. I hope you are very, very wrong.

by Keeppositive | 22nd Sep 17, 10:34am 1506033245

"Moving forward"? What do you mean... promoting mass benefit fraud?

by PocketAces | 22nd Sep 17, 3:47pm 1506052066

With all finger in pie shyte within National I can feel well assured you won't be going anywhere near them with your vote then.

by Mark L | 21st Sep 17, 8:30pm 1505982606

Despite several Labour governments they are yet to ever form a government with the Greens.

by flebus | 21st Sep 17, 9:44pm 1505987044

Necessity is the mother of invention.

by Joe Public | 21st Sep 17, 8:19pm 1505981996

Extremely High immigration and 16% of NZ children live in a household where neither parent has a job. One of the highest rates in the developed world. FACT

Immigration is a huge issue this election

It is interesting that NZ net immigration rate is 10 times UKs target rate (if you factor into account population differences)

NZ net immigration rate 72k
UK Target net Immigration rate 100k

Based on NZs population if we were to use UKs target we should have 7k a year max.

by MortgageBelt | 21st Sep 17, 8:25pm 1505982359

Brexit, ... Trump, ... Winston Peters, ... we follow a global trend of voters against a hidden undemocratic policy of high immigration and open access global purchasing of NZ land-based assets.
Why wouldn't NZers also protest, and vote that they want to place NZ first.

by vl1975nz | 21st Sep 17, 8:48pm 1505983690

Labour plus Green will be 47% plus

by Joe Public | 21st Sep 17, 9:23pm 1505985817

"The Great Kiwi Tax Break: Leaked Infomercial" on YouTube

https://youtu.be/YtxfwvxOaL4

This video is great and highlights the issues NZ faces.

by pacifica | 21st Sep 17, 10:34pm 1505990099

Ouch that is a bad Youtube view score. Even by NZ standards a little over 600 means the channels for sharing it were limited. Yes investment housing has been the main form of retirement investment for local NZ, and stable overseas investment for a while but that video is a bit much.

by kiwimm | 22nd Sep 17, 11:25am 1506036300

It's got 5.1k likes on Facebook

by midgetkiwi | 22nd Sep 17, 7:55pm 1506066956

lol... and that discrepancy is exactly why our media does soundbites... people read the headline, but not the substance.

by pankers | 21st Sep 17, 10:19pm 1505989186

As Jim Bolger said "bugger the pollsters"think National lost in that election so Party Vote National to keep stable govt otherwise nothing will get done in next 3 years , the country will be in liquidation broke under Labour THEN National will have to pick up bits in 3 years time

by pacifica | 21st Sep 17, 10:37pm 1505990271

Wait a sec wasn't it National who are selling off any assets, (including those high value land assets), in a liquidation? Surely even leasing the land on a 100 year cycle would be better.

by Smalltown | 21st Sep 17, 10:47pm 1505990868

Most of the interesting bits of Yangs application are redacted - why?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11924996

Yang has said naming the "partnership" universities was not a false declaration and was required if he was to leave China.

"It is not a false declaration. When I left China I was asked by the system to use my partnership universities. That is why I used those universities in applying for jobs, even [at] the University of Auckland.

"That's my CV. It is not that I am deliberately trying to cover up. It's because the system asked me to use the partner university. That is the reason."

So NZ is prepared to ignore what the Chinese told him to hide - sounds Ok to me. Presume WP will be Ok with it too.

by MortgageBelt | 21st Sep 17, 11:07pm 1505992074

Because our institutions no longer stand up for the truth anymore - they are now under strong political influence.
Just like countries where the public institutions are controlled and report directly to the Party.

by Kate | 21st Sep 17, 11:40pm 1505994012

When I left China I was asked by the system to use my partnership universities..That's my CV. It is not that I am deliberately trying to cover up. It's because the system asked me to use the partner university. That is the reason.

And isn't that the whole point in a nutshell? We have a member of Parliament still under the control and influence of the CCP.

We can feel for him, but that does not diminish the fact of what he is telling us - that the ruling elite of his homeland, the totalitarian regime that it is, forces its CCP members to do things its way - forever. And they obey.

Even after they have been granted the safe harbour of citizenship elsewhere.

by RickStrauss | 21st Sep 17, 11:45pm 1505994320

Yeah, weird... "I didn't write that on my CV because my government told me not to when I left the country, they told me to write something else instead so I did. Totally nothing to hide, though, nope!"

Lying on your CV and saying it's because a government told you to...well, that's neat.

by Kate | 22nd Sep 17, 12:05am 1505995552

And the NZ Parliament website no longer links to that CV;

https://www.parliament.nz/en/mps-and-electorates/members-of-parliament/…

Link to 'National Party biography' at the bottom of the page gives you this;

https://www.national.org.nz/jianyang

(But you can still donate on that page!!!)

by PocketAces | 22nd Sep 17, 6:38am 1506019086

A call out to anyone who took a screen shot of that document to post it here

by OpenPensionResolutn | 22nd Sep 17, 7:39am 1506022774

Here's the bio:
https://jianyang.national.org.nz/about_jian

They're not exactly shouting his true work experience from the rooftops, are they.

The Bio:
"Dr Jian Yang has been a National List MP since 2011.

Jian’s entry into Parliament follows a distinguished academic career. He was previously a Senior Lecturer of International Relations at the University of Auckland and Associate Dean (Postgraduate) of the Faculty of Arts and Director of the China Studies Centre at the New Zealand Asia Institute.

He was also Chair of the Auckland Branch of the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs (NZIIA) from 2002 until 2011, after serving as its deputy chair in 2001. The NZIIA is an independent, non-profit making organisation.

Jian completed his tertiary education in China before receiving his MA and PhD in International Relations at the Australian National University (ANU). He came to the University of Auckland in March 1999.

As a regular commentator on international and domestic affairs for local Chinese media, Jian is well known and respected amongst the Chinese community in New Zealand.

Jian is an active part of the National Party Ethnic Communities Caucus Committee. The Ethnic Communities caucus committee works closely with the Minister for Ethnic Communities to ensure New Zealand builds a strong and inclusive nation.

Like many Chinese New Zealanders, Jian shares the values of the National Party, particularly equal citizenship and equal opportunity, individual freedom and choice, personal responsibility, and reward for achievement. As a father of two children, he wants to provide a safe and prosperous environment for his kids to grow up.

At Parliament, Jian has been Deputy Chair of the Health Select Committee, member of the Commerce Select Committee and the Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Select Committee. He is currently a Parliamentary Private Secretary for Ethnic Communities, chair of the Education and Science Select Committee, and a member of the Transport and Industrial Relations Select Committee."

by MortgageBelt | 22nd Sep 17, 7:08pm 1506064093

All part of the process. Have a look around next time you're on the plane to Shanghai - regularly there seem to be groups from the Auckland council, ex-mayors, ex-cabinet ministers, National Party reps, or the Universities, & Govt depts etc. What is the nature of their business dealings? Do the public know what exactly is being traded?

by Joe Public | 22nd Sep 17, 3:43am 1506008620

False declaration and awarded citizenship. It shouldn't mater if the tooth ferry told him to lie in his application.

A lie is a lie.

Should be booted out of parliament.

by OpenPensionResolutn | 22nd Sep 17, 3:03am 1506006182

Quite right. Double speak twaddle, almost completely lacking any local NZ journalistic critique. It's the sort of rubbish you can read in the People's Daily, which the NZ media have emulated for some time now.

What really concerns me is that NZ is in so deep with China at this point (much deeper than being widely reported in NZ) that any attempts to change political direction could well see China "defend its interests", as is occurring already in the South China Sea. China is very territorial and NZ politicians and diplomats have worked diligently for years to place NZ squarely within China's influential territory. Worse, they have made NZ an important strategic resource (e.g. food production, military near-space balloon launches, back door access to 5 Eyes intelligence) of the State. Too important to lose and too small to brook any nonsense from.

NZ has been breathtakingly naïve in this regard. It has woefully neglected to exercise any caution in its own security. As we can see in the South China Sea and in the proxy-war rhetoric in the Pacific, sides will soon need to be taken. Our reckless flirting with China has made this inevitability increasingly perilous.

by RickStrauss | 21st Sep 17, 11:31pm 1505993512

Encapsulates it fairly well:

Jacindamania isn’t about personality at all – it's a collective sigh of relief that we might finally have a kind of leadership that reflects our core values as New Zealanders. A chance for a country that’s truly ‘clean and green;’ for honesty, decency and kindness in our public as well as our private lives.

National have run a classically neo-liberal campaign, based on cynical self-interest. It was sad watching Bill English in the last leader’s debate – a fundamentally decent man lying through his teeth to try and win the election.

We deserve better from our leaders than this kind of Faustian bargain.

The choice in this election is stark. Neo-liberalism has failed. It's time to hand over the reins to a new generation, and let them shape the future.

[Dame Anne Salmond]

by Ex Expat | 22nd Sep 17, 12:30am 1505997052

Let me guess, Dame Salmond is yet another academic with leftie tendencies (is the leftie tag superfluous when describing academics?) Lo and behold I'm correct and she received her CBE when Labour was in power.

by pacifica | 22nd Sep 17, 2:44am 1506005065

Did you decide that because she was a Dame or because she was a woman? Wait no because you read her bio and found she is one of NZs few highly distinguished scientists specializing in anthropology. Sure you can say knowledge of the Maori and Pacific people is not worth much but I am sure most NZders would disagree with you, many of them also distinguished Doctors. You do not need to fear educated people. Many of them have diverse views on politics which are not as simple minded as left vs right.

by PocketAces | 22nd Sep 17, 6:54am 1506020055

It does seem to be as simple as left v right to those who self identify as right.

by paashaas | 22nd Sep 17, 9:37am 1506029851

Her anthropology qualifications do not in any way make her a good ( or bad ) judge of politics.

by Ex Expat | 22nd Sep 17, 10:08am 1506031705

I haven't read her work but I am currently digesting Crosby's work on inter-iwi conflict as my wife has Maori ancestry and I want to pass on more knowledge of her tribe's history to our children, but that has noting to do with why I posted. My point was that Dame Salmond is opining on Bill English's character when it's highly likely her politics have always been left so there is nothing new in her view I.e. It has no import to me, I expect it.

As for educated people, who said I fear them? I just don't share their political views and we are about to see how many of my fellow New Zealanders share my view on the Left.

by PocketAces | 22nd Sep 17, 6:54am 1506020074

If you had even the slightest ability to read body language you will have seen on many occasions when English is lying through his teeth, and it is clear that he is uncomfortable with it.

by Keeppositive | 22nd Sep 17, 10:39am 1506033562

@ PocketAces - take off you red tinted specs and apply your lie-radar to Taxinda and see what emerges.

by PocketAces | 22nd Sep 17, 3:51pm 1506052277

I am not a Labour voter, why should I? Her body language sometimes gives away a lack of surety, but it does not suggest lying, unlike Bill English, almost childlike in his inability to hide his lies. She has balls of steel, though, don't you worry about that, but you need them in politics as well you know.

by swapacrate | 22nd Sep 17, 9:35pm 1506072946

Yeah hes opening his mouth thats a dead give away.

by PocketAces | 22nd Sep 17, 6:56am 1506020183

I hate to have to break this to you, but holding "left wing" views is not illegal.

by paashaas | 22nd Sep 17, 9:36am 1506029764

It is not illegal - it is just stupid.

by BadRobot | 22nd Sep 17, 12:50pm 1506041428

....and the right are such giants of intellect.

by PocketAces | 22nd Sep 17, 3:52pm 1506052372

No, being right wing is stupid. And now you might understand how stupid your comment was.

by RickStrauss | 22nd Sep 17, 9:28am 1506029303

I was going to put a preemptive "Let the attacking the source begin" at the end of my post but I thought I'd wait in case it put folk off doing so.

by Ex Expat | 22nd Sep 17, 10:13am 1506031981

Why did you post her opinion?

by Kate | 22nd Sep 17, 10:42am 1506033752

And a former New Zealander of the Year;

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/8366898/Dame-Anne-wins-NZer-of-the-Year

Given the Maori whakapapa in your family, Expat, you'll find this article by her really interesting;

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11644786

First and foremost, she is an historian - and I think what she is saying in the original article you commented on is that she sees history in the making - just as David Lange's rise to power in 1984 led to history in the making.

by Ex Expat | 22nd Sep 17, 12:09pm 1506038949

To me the portion posted is pure political rhetoric.

As for the Whakapapa, my Wife's iwi have a 'challenging' part in pre TOW inter iwi conflict to comprehend . I seek to understand exactly what they did and why so I can pass the info to my children. I need different points of view and historical context. Suffice to say I need to tie that down before I can move to other aspects of their heritage.

by Kate | 22nd Sep 17, 12:43pm 1506040998

Another good place to get historical accounts of different iwi from the descendants of the tribe itself are in the Waitangi Tribunal documents and findings. Hope your research goes well.

by Ralph | 22nd Sep 17, 10:56am 1506034593

She writes well but I disagree that leadership has nothing to do with personality.

I also disagree the political left has any monopoly on moral high ground. I believe history clearly shows this to be a fallacy.

For the rest she is simply talking her book.

by Kate | 22nd Sep 17, 1:25pm 1506043527

You missed the whole point of the article - the first statement being:

This election has not been a contest between left and right, but between different generations and philosophies.

Neo-liberalism has been the economic model (i.e., philosophy) practiced by political parties of both left/liberal and right/conservative persuasions for decades. So it as a socioeconomic prescription is not a differentiating factor.

The way I interpret Dame Anne is that she is saying this election will be decided not on left vs right but rather on renewal vs status quo.

It's certainly how I have conceived it too: is NZ ready to pass the baton to a new generation?

Can't wait - hoping to be able to say to my kids - well done, you're now in control - be good to NZ and the world!

by speckles | 22nd Sep 17, 2:51am 1506005476

The amusing thing is that all the media have tried every angle to kill WP off and had no success... and in return they try their best to not challenge the current government..talk about a free ride..

His supporters are as sticky as and I expect he will maintain his percentage and have a role in the next government. Polls can say what they like however they have not all died off in the past month..

Guyon Espiner interview was never going to do anything with his usual inflammatory one liners resulting in the usual inflammatory unstructured response...people said how great it was...listen and it just seems a total waste of time...

by two otherguys | 22nd Sep 17, 7:52am 1506023548

Thinkingman - very good

by Grant A | 22nd Sep 17, 9:10am 1506028210

Speckles - I did listen to that interview and was astonished. It was embarressingly poor for Peters and anyone who has voted from him either didn't hear the interview, or is voting for him over one issue (probably migration) - its certainly not economic management or knowing his numbers. Basically he takes the public as fools with no attempt to justify those numbers.

by MortgageBelt | 22nd Sep 17, 7:06am 1506020793

Free speech is now illegal in NZ
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11924968

by Solidname | 22nd Sep 17, 7:42am 1506022953

It's a tricky one that, there is a very strict rule around patient confidentiality, even to the degree that unless you agree your own records can't be passed between departments. I guess unless you really knew the people that were referenced you'd have little chance to identify them.

Irrespective of all that, it's a harrowing read, quite disturbing the under-class of poverty that exists in NZ.

by Didge | 22nd Sep 17, 8:41am 1506026475

And one may ask how much of this poverty is generated by the vulture specuvestor class?

by Washdoesn'twash | 22nd Sep 17, 7:26am 1506022014

Really because 'staff' recognise people what a joke!

by Henry_Tull | 22nd Sep 17, 7:15am 1506021357

Any one see the Auckland captain last night - after the game!
"Its hard for me because I'm going away"...

Love that winning Auckland thinking!
A star studded team, pantsed by a group of determined southern men! Playing the basics well, each doing their jobs!

Its not a metaphor, its the way it is. :)

by MortgageBelt | 22nd Sep 17, 7:18am 1506021499

"Peters said the “liberal media” put pressure on people to vote a certain way and, when the outcome went against the polls, the media tried to say those who supported the change were less intelligent."

by Solidname | 22nd Sep 17, 7:22am 1506021747

I wonder if there will be some silent Winnie supporters on these recent polls, people who are a bit embarrassed to admit over the phone they're going to vote NZ First, so say they're going to vote National instead? Greens tend to do well on the special and overseas votes, boosted them an MP last time to the detriment of National.

by bw | 22nd Sep 17, 7:41am 1506022909

8% TOP this morning's TV3 Poll. Just another Poll of course.....

by sharetrader | 22nd Sep 17, 7:58am 1506023933

would love that to be true for the reason is if inside parliament they can push there ideas from inside, and while most would be rejected they can make some change .
just look at the greens, both major parties now have a green agenda to combat the green vote and without them around that would not be so

by Boatman | 22nd Sep 17, 8:39am 1506026369

Re TOP it would be great to see fresh faces in the parliament , we are tired of the career politicians we have seen for the past 20 years

by workingman | 22nd Sep 17, 9:23am 1506029018

TOP is definitely the party of fresh ideas. And the country sorely needs these. Any sort of creditable showing this election will, I suggest, position them to rob both Labour and the Greens of votes next time round. There are even numerous National and other voters concerned with social principles rather than the motives of greed and fear. More power to their movement. I hope they take a sound percentage this time - sufficient to get a decent voice in Parliament and their messages better heard.

by bw | 22nd Sep 17, 9:32am 1506029549

Informal vote TV3 this morn ( +3,500 votes) could yeild: Labour + Greens + TOP!

by Yvil | 22nd Sep 17, 10:09am 1506031772

Catastrophy

by delboy | 22nd Sep 17, 12:05pm 1506038725

Surprised how many Green friends are switching to TOP. The common theme is the Turei debacle and and how terribly Clendon and Graham were treated. TOP is the only party which comes close to their Green values.

I'm picking Greens will be consigned to history this weekend and TOP will take their place.

by Ralph | 22nd Sep 17, 12:34pm 1506040464

Oh what an irony it was that the only two with integrity were the old white guys.

by Solidname | 22nd Sep 17, 12:45pm 1506041108

I'd nip down to the bookies and put that bet on if I were you then, this time next year Rodney you'll be millionaires.

by Didge | 22nd Sep 17, 8:25am 1506025554

Property speculators are responsible for a considerable measure of problems created by this horrific poverty. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11924968.

by two otherguys | 22nd Sep 17, 9:44am 1506030243

The abnormally ridiculously high levels of immigration created the conditions exploited by the spivs - spivs are never front-runners - they are ruthless scavengers that travel in behind the front-runners - the only thing the speculators are responsible is for holding up the prices longer than reasonable - you will have noticed the spivs have gone dead quiet in Auckland since the money-launderers have had their wings clipped by the CCP and also by the banks for supplying fraudulent information - as that tide has gone out the spivs have capitulated and gone PDQ - unwilling to hold prices up themselves - of course the spiv speculators have never splashed out over the top money-at-any-cost prices like the launderers do

by Boatman | 22nd Sep 17, 8:38am 1506026306

Winston has promised to "hit the pause button ' on immigration .

I voted for him purely on the basis of this , because immigration has led to the housing crisis we face .

If Winston backpedals now , I will never forgive him .

by Didge | 22nd Sep 17, 8:45am 1506026727

I too was highly hopeful of his anti immigration stance, but I am too frightened of another three years of National.

by PocketAces | 22nd Sep 17, 4:08pm 1506053328

NZF policies state that they will cut immigration and they will stop foreigners buying freehold land. If they team up with the Nats, do you seriously think the Nats will concede on either of those? I don't.

by Property king | 22nd Sep 17, 9:13am 1506028434

Get ready for a big delay after the election, like post-election 1996 Winston will go fishing for a month, come back and say he is not ready to make a decision. Then he will go fishing again for 2 weeks. Hope he isn’t the kingmaker.

by two otherguys | 22nd Sep 17, 9:29am 1506029343

Winston's demands will be right up front on day 1 - delays won't be his

Procrastination will be either Jacinda's or Bill's as they work out who is the more desperate of the 2

Why do you think any delays will be the fault of Winston - delays will reflect the un-willingness of the major parties to make concessions - and the only solution to that is to let them stew on it as they finally determine which of the two will make the most concessions - and - I reckon Bill will be the first to crack - but it will take time and if it takes 4 weeks then blame Bill not Winston because his demands will be right up front on day 1

by Yvil | 22nd Sep 17, 10:11am 1506031886

I wrote to the National party the week after John Key resigned to break the ice with WInston...

by Property king | 22nd Sep 17, 10:33am 1506033205

Winston the PM??

by bigblue | 22nd Sep 17, 1:27pm 1506043653

Like Brexit and Trump I suspect that a Labour landslide surprise will be the outcome tomorrow. The elderly, the young, the lower and the middle income earners and even the business sector have hopefully seen through the lies and deception of English and Joyce. Fingers crossed it is a clear cut outcome with no need for Winnie in the mix.

by Property king | 22nd Sep 17, 2:59pm 1506049197

hahaha fool's hope.

by PocketAces | 22nd Sep 17, 9:26pm 1506072379

So, I decided earlier on to go and cast my vote today as I have a mountain of work to do tomorrow. I have never seen so many people lining up to vote ever before and they were from all walks of life, young and old. Lots of young. Interesting next 24 hours.

by swapacrate | 22nd Sep 17, 9:42pm 1506073320

Lots of young interesting.

Well if they want to buy a house they need to get out there and vote.

by Macadder | 22nd Sep 17, 9:47pm 1506073658

To all those good burghers who have not voted already. Please vote early tomorrow, unless you plan to vote National. For the Nats have a good lie in, it's deserved. Bill is a dead cert and there is no rush to vote. The weather looks good so fire up the barbie at lunchtime. Open up the liquor cabinet early as you know how damn greedy some of the guests can be (mostly just the bragging property flippers) and crack a few cold ones. By the end of the afternoon you will be perfectly set for a great show.