“Horrible.”
This is the word the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) is using to describe the impact a Donald Trump victory would have on the New Zealand economy.
The institute, in a note released today (Thursday), says the prospect of Trump becoming US President should worry New Zealand firms.
“If Trump beats the odds and emerges victorious, we expect significant instability in financial markets,” NZIER deputy chief executive John Ballingall says.
“Borrowing costs for New Zealand firms and mortgage-holders are likely to rise as credit conditions tighten in the face of uncertainty.
“The New Zealand dollar could appreciate against the greenback in the short term if markets are concerned about future US competitiveness, although this might be offset by traders moving away from more peripheral currencies.”
The NZIER maintains if Trump enacts his economic policy campaign promises, the US economy is likely to grow slower in the medium term.
“One estimate is that Trump’s policies will see 4.8 million job losses. A weaker US economy will have a negative impact on the $8.4 billion of goods and services we sell to the US. This will be of particular concern to the meat, dairy, wine, wood and tourism sectors,” Ballingall says.
The NZIER also notes Trump has promised to impose huge tariffs on Chinese and Mexican imports, and rip up trade agreements like NAFTA and TPP.
Furthermore, he says he isn’t a fan of multilateral institutions like the World Trade Organisation and United Nations.
“This is the biggest area of concern for New Zealand in the long term. We benefit enormously from a stable global trading environment,” Ballingall says.
The NZIER believes that under a Trump presidency, the chances of further Asia-Pacific regional economic integration are reduced and the trade barriers facing Kiwi exporters are more likely to remain.
“Trump is delivering a message that the US will do what it likes, and bugger the consequences for everyone else.
“We are looking at much more isolationist and protectionist US trade and foreign policy settings. That’s not good for the US economy or the global economy, and definitely not good for the New Zealand economy,” Ballingall concludes.
89 Comments
THIS is the sort of thing Trump is unleashing, http://occupydemocrats.com/2016/11/02/trump-silent-iowa-cop-killer-iden…
This is the sort of people who support him http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/kkk-newspaper-throws-its-backin…
Shame on the US if they elect this excuse for a human being. And I haven't even touched on "how great he will be for the women" starting with telling them what they can do with their own bodies,
It's called Alt-Right now.
Love them or hate them they have had a significant influence on this year's US elections.
Fairly neutral article here:
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/rise-of-the-alt-right/
Absolutely loony tunes right, yes, I have had a look at it, and basically it looks like white (male) supremecism, I wouldn't be too proud of declaring my adherence to that if I were you, how utterly disgusting. Why don't they just throw their hat into the ring with ISIS, they seem to have a pretty similar agenda to them?
If you think Trump is bad, which he may be, try some YouTube research on Hilary, some clips of her are very worrying and add credibility to Trumps claim on her health. Other stuff is more worrying as it suggests criminal collusion and near fraud. The NZIER however would probably be better keeping its mouth shut lest they join the band of predictors of Brexit - politicians, reserve bank governors, europrats, economists, bankers and even bookmakers who all got that wrong and are still moaning that a democratic decision should be revisited.
@Pocketaces ........ Bollocks !
You have been captured by the US anti-Trump media campaign , so you now see him as an ogre
Trump has numerous strong points, and actually may be good for America , as he has put America's interests first ( which is how it should be ).
He cares for American workers, so why should he care about Chinese workers ? Hell , even the Chinese dont care about Chinese workers , so why should America care , the Chinese must sort themselves out
He is winning support because :-
1) He has a plan to revitilise America in its industries and infrastructure
2) He is hell bent on dealing with the 20 , 000, 000 ( 20 MILLION) estimated illegal aliens
3) He will drain the swamp of those corrupt lazy alligators in Washington
4) He will likely reduce defence spending , and thereby reduce the US Debt
5) A resurgent America will be good for African Americans who suffer the most from unemployment
6) He will allow Russia to smack ISIS , once and for all ( why should American lives be lost and ordnance wasted in this mess?)
7) He has answers for Americans who are fed up with the status quo
its a shame they picked the two worst candidates to pick from,
one just makes up stuff and just says it over and over has no real policy that will work, the other has shown by actions to be dishonest and covers up said dishonesty over and over
pretty similar to our choices, guess the americans are going to get a taste of what we have been having but with much more severe consequences for the financial world
This story is not quite so "international media" as it may first appear. Emma O'Brien has long standing ties to NZ and, in fact, lives here. Therefore, it could be assumed that she has as much vested interest in the NZ property market as any Fairfax or NZME staff member - or any other NZer.
https://nz.linkedin.com/in/emma-o-brien-89940146.
To summarise, another NZer wrote another story about how "NZ is the next big thing and NZ home owners are all going to be rich forever, huzzah!"
Trump will win in a landslide. The TPP will be scrapped and we (The People) will not be forced to pay $10,000 per week for Cancer Drugs that hardly work. (I am soooo disappointed) My heart goes out to the Poor Abused Big Pharma Companies and their struggling investors. (sarc)
Hospital delays put tens of thousands at risk of sight loss, doctor says
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/south-island/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503933&ob…
"Thirty patients suffered partial loss of sight in 2015/16 because of delays at the Southern District Health Board and more than 4000 overdue patients have been told they might be affected."
Have you been watching what has been happening to our Health Service????????
Trump will win. It will give courage to Kiwis to get rid of our horrible and destructive government.
Trump may well win, but have you not spotted he IS part of the establishment, especially the rich corporate establishment, why anyone thinks he gives a damn about Average Joe is simply beyond me, he doesn't, beyond how they can enhance him.
The only option to really change things this election was Bernie Sanders, he's been trying since forever, has never changed his narrative, has little to no ego, his time was now, stupid USA overlooked him and instead fell under the thrall of the redneck rousing, racist baiting, misogynistic, psychopath that is Trump. Bernie fell in behind Clinton only to try to save the USA from the horror that will be Trump.
He may become president but he will create so much turmoil it will likely turn violent, mark my words.
I think the corporate executives hate Trump more than many groups. He is not part of that Establishment. And he has not been a politician. He is still not. Otherwise he would not be running loose with his mouth. He doesn't do Politics or Establishment the way they have been done till date.
He is tapping into a massive anger from middle and base America. Let us see whether he can get a chance to act out his 'no strategies'.
Godwin's Law! Look, mentioning National Socialist era German politics is just taking cheap shots. The thread cannot descend into a discussion about the wrongs and rights of such a time so your comment effectively becomes the last word. Godwin's Law automatically disqualifies you from the debate.
The Democrats may well rue their chance to nominate Sanders. Instead they opted for the status quo just as the GOP was prepared to do until The Donald got his timing right. He's tapped into the undeniable anger on Main Street and this 'movement' isn't going to disappear even if Hillary gets up. .
The champagne liberals who abhor Trump might want to go and meet the unemployed steel worker in Pittsburgh or the miner in West Virginia about to be laid off and view life through their eyes and only then are they likely to begin to understand why Trump is so close to the White House.
This so called movement is not Trump's movement, he just got lucky. It might need someone more erudite and inclusive to instigate real change in the US.
“A social movement that only moves people is merely a revolt. A movement that changes both people and institutions is a revolution.” - Dr Martin Luther King Jr
Totally agree, the establishment chose Hillary to follow Obama.....blinkers on and thought they she would be a shoe in. They didn't count on Wikileaks and her inept support staff as the corruption follows her like a trusty dog. She also blames Russia...with no proof from any of her trusted agencies?
Just think how easily a Sanders/Warren team would have annihilated team trump. Our election next year will be interesting...the masses have access to much more info these days. what will the establishment do next?
The scariest thing about Hillary is she would take the world to war. She supports a no fly zone over Syria as per the debates. When one of her top generals was asked the question he said it would mean war with Russia. She's a warmonger who supported the war in Iraq, Libya, Syria, Ukraine, Yemen (backing the Saudi's) etc. She announced America's 'pivot to Asia', America's new foreign policy as Secretary of State where the Pacific countries are being militarised in support of America against the 'Chinese threat'. America has rightly been described as 'the empire of chaos' with its endless wars and regime changes and Hillary is just another supporter. I'm glad that empire is falling, just as did the Roman Empire.
More likely the opposite; USA in enviable position of enough energy, food and infrastructure, along with 300 million ready consumers to go it alone and possibly be better off as result. If any other countries try to oppose that, THEY will be worse off, including NZ. Go Trump!
It is actually true. USA is one of the few nations that could be entirely self sufficient if required.
It has Energy (oil, nuclear, solar, wind, etc...)
Countless agriculture, livestock, and wild game, lakes, rivers, and dual ocean access (Atlantic and Pacific).
Commodities (Steel, gold, timber, etc...)
It also has a good population balance, including top scientists, doctors, and IT.
Most importantly it has incredibly powerful armed forces. So if they want something, I am fairly sure they can get it.
Trump is not popular because people believe him to be the best, smartest, fairest, legitimate. But because they (The citizens of the USA) believe he will put them ahead of anyone (and everyone) else.
He will do this because that will also make him better off personally.
The rest of the World is scared/worried/cautious of a Trump presidency for exactly this reason. The USA can live with out everyone else. Everyone else can not live with out them (except maybe Russia).
The problem with a lot of commentators (particularly from this country) is they need to understand that too. Trump is fighting for the Average Joe in the USA - not NZ, not UK, and sure as hell not anywhere else.
Probably. Seems to be what everyone is building for now.
Humans have always congregated together in ideologically similar groups, with conflict at the border of the territory. You even see it even in suburban NZ.
Global diplomacy is nothing more than a drunken nightclub with the US acting as the bouncer with a big stick stopping the real trouble makers from getting in. But the bouncer is starting to look a bit tired (and the average US person knows this).
- Russia has always been ultra-nationalistic, and are strengthening their military.
- China are still building their islands in the south china sea.
- Middle east has never not been at War
- Migrants have invaded Europe, and it may take force to remove them.
- India and Pakistan are building the nuclear arsenals.
Trump may actually be good for the world as he will give the bouncer a bit more Gym time and a bigger stick to hold.
Personally I doubt he would push the button - but the thought that he could may just be enough to keep the other global parties from picking a fight.
@ David C. Are you calling me irrational and willfully blind? We will have to wait and see. Reality is, he has gotten this far with his life, and foray into politics over last 18 months.
Far as the future goes; he seems to have enough charisma and energy to create a better reality for the country.
We are all better off if USA is straight and strong.
I believe there are four main issues of importance to Trump voters. Trump has identified these and is championing them.
1. Wars - We appear to be supporting Al-Qaeda against ISIS and ME regimes. Formenting rebellions in foreign countries is wrong. This must stop. Few people believe the blood of our sons and daughters is worth trying to correct problems in the Middle east or Ukraine.
2. Borders and migrants
Existing laws are sufficient and need to be enforced. There are conflicts affecting millions of people. Almost any non Westerner can currently claim asylum. We are not responsible for the World's children. This system is being abused.
It is wrong to headhunt the Third World's brightest talents.
3. Outsourcing - Companies that outsource to get cheap labour need to suffer consequences such as increased tarifs.
4. The development of 1984 type thought-crime laws and the suppression of ideas. The rewriting of history and the demonization of European heroes.
You're perhaps a little off the mark on #4 - Trump supports a surveillance state just like Hillary. I think he is the better option because of your other points. If the democrats stay in long enough the demographics will shift (see California now) and the US will essentially be a one party country because illegal immigrants tend to vote for welfare.
In the end you will love The Donald( against all considered thought; browbeaten)
"He gazed up at the enormous face. O cruel, needless misunderstanding! O stubborn, self-willed exile from the loving breast! Two gin-scented tears trickled down the sides of his nose. But it was all right, everything was all right, the struggle was finished. He had won the victory over himself. He loved Big Brother”
From 1984
Once again NZIER is full of doom and gloom.
1. Increased borrowing costs.
Well good they have been too low for too long. This will probably happen anyway as we are at or near the bottom of this interest rate cycle. Millions of people are getting next to nothing for their saving. If we want to encourage saving and discourage borrowing then let borrowing costs rise. Generally the world doesn't need more debt.
2. NAFTA and TPP
NZ is not in North America (last time I checked) so who cares? The US was a main trading partner before TPP and will be afterwards. Trump has also said he wants free trade, but he wants it free and fair. Companies cant just move across the boarder and take American jobs and pay slaves to sell back to US citizens and bank the large profits. They don't add anything to the economy by doing so. There are things in the TPP that I think we would be better off without - like giving multi-national corporations too much power. Trump agrees. Its consumers that should have the power.
3. The Wall
So what? Mexico also wants to build a wall on its southern border. Any country has the right to take whatever steps it likes for border protection. NZ does. Australia does. Everyone does. China did.
4. Immigration
He hasn't said he wants to stop immigration. He just wants immigrants esp refugees vetted before hand, esp if they come from known terrorist hot spots. John Key said the same thing.
5. Lies, more lies and still more lies.
Of course the Trump machine hasn't been completely honest, nor has Clinton (for sure), nor was Brexit stay or remain. Its called 'politics'. It happens every election, they make promises that get watered down once elected. Much of Trump extremes will get moderated.
6. Trump hates women
If that was true, he wouldn't have any women with senior positions in his companies, or would have well below the 'norm'.... ah but hang on...????
7. Trade barriers will get worst or remain
How would they know this? Do they know the outcome of the negotiations before they happen? Its just as likely that trade barriers will come down as Trump will force them down. It called negotiating. Lower your own trade barriers and play fair or we will put some on you. To take cases through the WTO takes years and years, because they are hopeless, I agree. Ditto UN. Generally speaking NZ trade interests are aligned with US ones esp agriculture access into asia.
etc etc etc
A Trump victory will be good for America in the long run .
America has been a weakening empire for years , its industries gutted , its infrastruture decaying and its debt ballooning
The tax on Chinese imports can be used to stimulate the economy and public works programmes fixing Americas fading infrastructure .
The effects on NZ will be minimal , the NZIER are just speculating ..... they actually dont have a clue
Probably correct about NZIER - better to say nothing and be thought a fool than open you mouth and prove it, I suspect NZIER will joint the band of predictors of Brexit - politician, reserve bank governors, economists, celebrities, banksters, europrats and even bookmakers who all got it wrong.
Yep, NZIER just join a long list of self serving mouthpieces voicing their loud concerns that their privilege will be eroded if someone with a view that the well being of the population should be prioritized should stumble through their carefullly setup defences to gain power.
Welcome to democracy.
The HEADLINE on this article is very misleading for the following reasons :-
1) Borrowing costs are widely expected to increase irrespective of who wins the election , the Federal Reserve simply has to get interest rates up and reverse / unwind the QE slowly .
2) Higher borrowing costs will slow growth in asset prices and dampen demand for our exports , its a case of one -follows- the-other , and its going to happen anyway , no matter who wins the election
3) Both Clinton and Trump have stated they will not sign the TPP so existing trade barriers will stay
So what is the NZIER on about ?
The NZIER will remain schtum to my points above
I of course agree Boatman. NZIER is full of crap.
The world is in for a bad time no matter who wins, I would be pleasantly surprised if its Trump as at least the US has a chance for real change, Hillary can go to jail where she belongs. If Clinton wins they may as well hand the white house over to the mafia.
I wouldn't trust him as far as I could throw him. Everything he says is BS. Trump is full of it and not to be believed on anything. How many times has he about faced his position on his brain farts and utterances. He has no answers, just fictions and populist sloganeering. Anyone that swallows his rhetoric is either stupid, delusional or both.
They are still coming, thanks or not..
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=117…
Interesting article.
Billionaire Facebook Inc backer Peter Thiel described New Zealand as a "utopia" in 2011 and is reported to have bought residential property in Auckland and Queenstown. Thiel and a spokesman for the PayPal co-founder didn't respond to e-mailed requests for comment.
New Zealand has actively courted the wealthy. For an investment of $10 million in local assets or funds over a three-year-period, migrants can qualify for residency provided they spent 44 days in New Zealand in each of the two latest years. These investors don't have to speak English or live for a set amount of time in the country after the qualification period. They also don't have to become tax residents.
Since the programme started six years ago, 121 people have gained so-called Investor Plus visas, and more than 800 have secured a residency pass that requires a $1.5 million investment over four years, government data show.
How can japan host the olympics, with 230% debt to GDP? The worlds in financial trouble and Trump will be our reality check.
http://qz.com/122238/tokyo-2020-olympic-games-japan-debt/
If Japan’s debt problems end in default—or avoiding a default spurs hyperinflation—the resulting banking crisis and economic collapse (paywall) will likely damage the global economy. As they say—it’s all fun and Games until someone gets hurt.
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