90 seconds at 9 am: Reality checks

Aussie business sentiment 'resilient'; Aussie house buying intentions solid; US will get pain as well as gain from TPP; UST 10yr 2.03%; oil slips, gold up; NZ$1 = 64.7 US¢, TWI-5 = 70.5

26th Jan 16, 7:39am by David Chaston

Here's my summary of the key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news markets are focused on the oil price today.

But first up, its a public holiday in Australia today and that will restrain local markets somewhat.

Yesterday, the latest reading of Aussie business sentiment came in marginally lower, but above analysts expectations. It was probably the stronger-than-expected data for forward orders that impressed markets the most.

Another Aussie survey out yesterday showed that residential property buying intentions improved, shifting away from 'investing' as the driver, to 'occupation'.

In New York, stocks started out a lot lower today but by mid-day had wiped out those early morning losses. Initial focus seems to have been on the failure of the oil price to hold yesterday's gains. And that seems to stem from a realisation that oil demand in China may never reach what had been forecast. The oil patch may yet face peak-oil-supply in the future, but unexpectedly, it may have passed peak-oil-demand.

Also out overnight is a new analysis - from a US point of view - of the TPP deal. Essentially it warns the US that it will not be a big winner and jobs in some sectors will be lost, but it also concludes that there will be net benefits even to jobs in other sectors and the US will be worse off not joining it.

Trade is not the only thing affecting jobs in the US; the weather is as well, and some analysis of how that affects their economy is a useful perspective.

In New York, the benchmark UST 10yr yield is on the slide again, now at 2.03%.

The oil price is also lower, now below US$31/barrel on both benchmarks.

The gold price is up at US$1,109/oz.

The Kiwi dollar starts today at 64.7 US¢, at 92.9 AU¢, and at 59.7 euro cents. The TWI-5 starts today at 70.5.

If you want to catch up with all the local changes yesterday, we have an update here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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4 Comments

by Muppet King | 26th Jan 16, 11:17am 1453760235

I would just like to say, that over the last few days we've seen some interesting articles about property, that Auckland property is relatively some of the most expensive in the world etc. the fact that Mr Church has admitted that the whole thing is a house of cards, that if the Auckland property market crashed the whole country would go down with it, I think is absolute deplorable admission. Boomers have literally bet their houses on all sorts of things and younger generations must pay the price, the damage caused to those future generations because of your greed is ridiculous. I sincerely hope it was worth it, because when you're gone, I have a feeling that the way our beautiful country was when you were born, and the way it will be when you leave, are two tragically different points.

by sharetrader | 26th Jan 16, 11:28am 1453760885

most people except the politicians that there hand in the cookie jar can see that Housing became unbalanced and more should have been done earlier to bring it under control.
instead we have had two governments that have encourged investing and speculation over ownership with their policies. its time for a new party that puts home ownership as a priority for its citzens above investors and overseas owners.
the damage these politicans will be bore by our childen and their childen once they are long gone people will look back with the same eyes that we now look back on past failed politicans

by workingman | 26th Jan 16, 11:58am 1453762705

Well said, MK. 'The way our beautiful country was when [we] were born, and the way it will be when [we] leave' is ample measure of our responsibilities in life. We have been given the role of custodians and, too often, have chosen to act as thieves and vandals.

We are running our economy as if there were no tomorrow. But there is a tomorrow, for our children and grandchildren. Their inheritance from us, if we continue the way we are, will be very different from that we have received. We might be filling our pockets, but it's coming by having our hands in the till of the future. It is no different from stealing from our offspring.

by ex agent | 26th Jan 16, 11:51am 1453762281

Not just the boomers MK. I recall the young man aged 31 in the Herald last week with 11 rentals or so. There are a considerable number of X and y landlords around. Most of the boomers I know are living pretty ordinary lives. Most do not have rentals and they only will have national super to live on, or should I say survive on.