90 seconds at 9 am: US growth sags

US savings rise; US house sales rise; China cuts deposit requirements; oil and gold prices lower; NZD edges closer to parity; NZ$1 = 75.2 US¢, TWI = 80.2

31st Mar 15, 7:25am by David Chaston

Here's my summary of the key issues from over night that affect New Zealand, with news of higher savings driving lower growth.

American consumer spending fell in February as households used the gains from lower petrol prices to increase savings to their highest level in more than two years. In real (after inflation) terms, incomes rose +0.2% while spending actually fell -0.1% in February from the previous month.

Americans saved 5.8% of their personal disposable incomes in February. The data is the latest sign that the US economy probably hit a soft patch in the first quarter of 2015.

Maybe they are saving for another house. Contracts to purchase a previously owned homes (as opposed to a newly built house) rose to their highest level in 18 months in February, a sign the lackluster recovery in the American housing market could be accelerating.

China also wants more people to buy houses. Overnight they changed regulations and cut down-payment requirements for the second time in six months, stepping up a fight against sliding house prices that is imperiling the Chinese economy.

Their central bank said on its website that commercial banks could now lower their minimum down-payment requirement for buyers of second homes, and with outstanding mortgages, to 40% from 60%. The down payment minimum for a first home has been reduced to 20% from 30%.

In New York, the UST 10yr yields were basically unchanged overnight at 1.95%. Similarly, New Zealand swap rates marked time yesterday.

The crude oil price however fell and is now at US$48/barrel and Brent crude is at $55 a barrel.

The gold price also fell to US$1,185/oz, down US$14/oz.

The New Zealand dollar will start today lower against the greenback at 75.2 US¢, at yet another post-float high against the Aussie at 98.3 AU¢, and the TWI is almost unchanged at 80.2.

If you want to catch up with all the local changes yesterday, we have an update here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here »

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21 Comments

by @tony | 31st Mar 15, 8:36am 1427744210

Capitalism’s pursuit of profit is destroying life on earth.

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2015/03/27/social-costs-capitalism-dest…

Dr. Paul Craig Roberts was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy and associate editor of the Wall Street Journal. He was columnist for Business Week, Scripps Howard News Service, and Creators Syndicate. He has had many university appointments. His internet columns have attracted a worldwide following. Roberts' latest books areThe Failure of Laissez Faire Capitalism and Economic Dissolution of the West and How America Was Lost.

by OnwardsUpwards | 31st Mar 15, 10:20am 1427750408

World population in 1950 - 2.51 billion.

World population in 2010 - 7.05 billion.

It looks like the pursuit of profit has increased life on Earth.

by @tony | 31st Mar 15, 10:27am 1427750854

Yes...

No problems here...

Move on...

Climate Change is a complete hoax... pass the port...

(cough) (cough) who cares.. Il'l be dead by the time it would affect me anyhow.

(cough) (cough).... Cigar anyone...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXfWfJz59pk

by Craig | 31st Mar 15, 10:45am 1427751905

Hmmm. Increased the number of lives but not the quality maybe. Certainly reduced the lifespan of the planet we are all using.

by PeakEverything | 31st Mar 15, 10:49am 1427752186

*Human life. Also you seem to think this is a good thing?

by OnwardsUpwards | 31st Mar 15, 11:02am 1427752941

Yes I do think it is a good thing. Life is beautiful and should be experienced by as many people as possible. I've always believed that anyone who thinks there is not enough space for more humans on our planet are welcome to voluntarily make space for the next human waiting to arrive.

by @tony | 31st Mar 15, 11:18am 1427753907

I've always believed that anyone who thinks there is enough space for more humans on our planet should make space for the next human waiting to arrive.

The planet is overpopulated and there are simply not enough respources to sustain it.

Not that it will matter in the end.... such a small amount of temperature rise will (is) ending it anyhow.

http://globalwarming.berrens.nl/globalwarming.htm

Humans are just too stupid to save themselves....

by steven | 1st Apr 15, 7:28am 1427826485

Interesting thing "stupidity". Having had repeated huge arguments in green circles for quite a few years on the same subject it feels like groundhog day every week with a new "idiot". As Kunstler says about peak oil (paraphrase) "most enviromentists, greens etc all think we'll be heroically keeping the cars running" Same thing applies to climate change really most ppl seem to think we'll sacrfiice a little here and there but the lifestyle they have will continue and not only that we'll get to 9 billion and they also will be living like us in the developed world.

Just one I had yesterday someone was blindly telling me someone will invent it, solve it, this is a person of very liberal outlook, yet the words she used were almost identical to Phil Best's a while back.

So when I tell them I am an engineer and I am looking at simple math and thermodynamics that says no I get told various things like I am "crazy" , or I am the stupid one.

When I comment on population, peak oil etc to the Likes of Gareth Hughes who is the Energy spokesman? or James Shaw I get almsot silence, they simply either do not understand or aresaying nothing knowing full well as they have figured out the implications then say nothing. When I say we should be leading on population reduction and indeed leading on these things I get told no one will listen. well damn me if our leaders and gren ones at that wont say a damn word about it then yes we are i deep deep doo doo. Great link btw, of course the ppl drifting west in the future will see Californie already out of the game.

The concerning Q is then where will they all decide to go? NZ?

by PeakEverything | 31st Mar 15, 11:18am 1427753935

You obviously don't think life is beautiful you think human life is beautiful. Let's see how beautiful human life is when we are all crammed on this planet like battery hens.

by steven | 1st Apr 15, 7:34am 1427826856

Yep sure, my voluntarily determination is I now give no money to any organisation wanting to help starving ppl. I give my spare money to things like save the Hector Dolphins every payday.

by Magnum PI | 9th Apr 15, 9:51am 1428529882

I've always believed that mummy's boys who have been handed everything on a silver platter should make way for people who *aren't* just a total waste of space. So OnwardsUpwards we'd really appreciate it if you could please make space for us. Oh don't bother spouting more of your lies about being a "self-made man" . We don't need to hear any more delusional talk from you, thanks.

by OnwardsUpwards | 9th Apr 15, 9:58am 1428530331

I won't deny that I'm from a wealthy family. It has nothing to do with luck. My father wasn't a bum. He never believed in welfare, or the Labour Party. He believed in himself. Thanks to my father I too can give my son a good life. Obviously I'm not a self made man. We all all products of our parents skills in raising us. Mine weren't bums. What were yours like?

by rastus1 | 9th Apr 15, 10:07am 1428530820

....own goal. Being from a wealthy family has everything to do with luck. Your son is now also in luck. . The kid from sth auckland born into a family of 6, no food in the house, no education, raised on violence is born out of luck.

You personal success is pure luck...luck with genes, luck from birth...no more and no less.

by OnwardsUpwards | 9th Apr 15, 10:19am 1428531574

Wrong. Luck didn't get me through university. Luck didn't get me through post grad studies. Luck didn't pay for my first car or house. Luck didn't press the buy or sell button for share trading. Luck didn't enable me to retire early. Hard work did chap. Why have chop on your shoulder? Is it someone else fault that you still have to have a job? Nope. It's your own fault.

by Plutocracy | 9th Apr 15, 11:12am 1428534773

I think your being disingenious if you can't see the huge impact your upbringing has had on your life. You sound extremely lucky to have been born into a wealthy family. Hard work plays a role for sure, but if you're disadvantaged from the start then it's an extreme uphill battle and the odds are not in your favor.

An analogy is like playing a game of monopoly and starting with no money or properties while the other players start with $2000 in the bank and already own half of the board. In a few games you might 'make it' but most of the time you're going to lose.

If you aren't capable of acknowledging this as an important factor then so be it, that alone probably gives us enought insight into your personality.

by OnwardsUpwards | 9th Apr 15, 11:18am 1428535080

There are plenty of people who inherited great wealth and lost it all. Why did they lose it? Luck? Or because their actions. Inheriting wealth does not mean you will be wealthy for long. There are plenty of examples of people who were born poor in bad conditions but became extremely wealthy.

What is it with all this tall poppy hate? If someone is successful it's because of luck. If someone is a bum it's because they were screwed by the upper class. Or they have been shafted by the baby boomers, etc. Always excuses, never reasons.

by rastus1 | 9th Apr 15, 11:35am 1428536126

...you just dont get it do you.

The conditions you were born in were due to luck. The world around you that shaped you was due to luck. The fact that you worked hard was due to luck - as you had been lucky enough to be given the oppurtinity, the motivation, the genes and the brains to do it.

Any body born into your life, born with your genetics, your brain, your family, the same influences, surroundings and so on would have performed in exactly the same say.

So quite kididng yourself....your life is all luck...

by kiwichas | 9th Apr 15, 10:50am 1428533458

So you are off to sunny Syria or Yemen anytime soon??( to enjoy the consequences of too many humans competing for too few resources)

by scarfie | 31st Mar 15, 10:29pm 1427794193

Quite typical of the incapability of those with a modest IQ to see the relevant facts.

World population growth rate in 1950 - 1.45% (2.56b total)

World population growth rate in 2010 - 1.1% (6.85b total)

World population growth rate peak in all of history - 2.2% in 1962&3.

World population growth current - 0.84

But you are not smart enough to see the problem there are you?

Source: US Census Bureau

by frazz | 31st Mar 15, 11:14am 1427753670

Have you been to India Onwards? (I doubt it) Earth has lost half of its wildlife in the past 40 years, says WWF.

by gordon | 9th Apr 15, 11:29am 1428535747

I was not born into a wealhy family however our parents encouraged us to go to university and get a degree. I was extremely lazy at school and one day my father told my brothers " I would be a bank manager or an insurance agent." Those two professions were for failures according to my father who was an accountant. When my brothers told me what my father had said to them I worked hard enough to get to university and then to get a relevant degree. All six children including me are professionals.

We were lucky to have inspiring parents who were far from rich. In turn my two children are professionals as my wife and I encouraged them to go to university also. I was luckier than some and my children were lucky i could suport them at university. I made them take out student loans as there was no way I would help them with their loans if they mucked around and bombed out. They certainly knew the rules.