Migration surged to a new high in September with a net gain of 6,125 migrants during the month pushing the annual gain from migration to an all time high of 45,414, according to Statistics NZ.
That surpassed the previous annual highs of 43,500 set in the year to August, and 42,500 for the year to May 2003.
The average annual net gain from migration over the last 20 years has been 11,700.
The record gain in net migration over the last year was driven by both more arrivals and fewer departures of permanent and long term migrants, Statistics NZ said.
Migrants arrivals reached a new high of 105,500 in the year to September which was an increase of 16% on the same period last year, while permanent and long term departures of 60,100 were down 21% on the previous year.
The biggest net gain (the surplus of arrivals over the departures) came from India with a net 9,070 migrants arriving in the year to September, followed by China and Hong Kong at 7,537, the UK 5,302, the Philippines 3,413, Germany 2,441, France 2,154 and South Africa 1,396.
The biggest overall source of people coming into the country permanently was Australia, with 22,596 people crossing the ditch to this country in the year to September, with most of them likely to be New Zealanders returning home.
But that was outweighed by the 28,582 people who left this country permanently bound for Australia, leaving a net loss to Australia of 5,986 for the year to September.
The outflow of migrants to Australia has slowed considerably and the net loss to Australia was just 68 in the month of September, compared with a net loss of 539 people in September last year and 2,488 in September 2012.
Heading above 50k
However ANZ, ASB and Westpac think net migration growth will go even higher than the current record levels.
ANZ said in its Economic Overview report that net migration inflows were on track to reach 50,000 people a year by the end of this year, while ASB said in its Quickview newsletter that it expects net migration to peak at "close to 50,000" early next year.
Westpac was even more bullish on the numbers, with the bank's senior economist Felix Delbruck saying in a First Impressions newsletter released shortly after the migration figures came out, that the bank's economists expected net migration gains to rise further in coming months and to peak at a net gain of about 55,000 in the first half of next year.
28 Comments
Most moving to Auckland and all looking for a place to live. Interest rates lower for longer, nothing being built in the special housing areas, Chinese opening official channels for FDI in NZ, subsidies for FHB, increasing equity in existing homes, domestic migration to Auckland and spring just around the corner.
Is there anyone left who thinks Auckland prices are going to drop?
Aussie is getting a few Chinese property buyers if these #s are an indication;
Yellow Brick Road Holdings Ltd. (YBR), 18.4 percent owned by Macquarie, lent A$320 million ($281 million) to Chinese investors out of a total A$1.1 billion in disbursements last month, Mark Bouris said yesterday in Sydney. The proportion of Chinese borrowers has doubled in the past year, he said. Read more
There's more, much more - they're coming - you aint seen nothin - yet
That's only the end-buyers and end-investors
Now the developers are moving in to clip the ticket all the way up
It's called vertical integration - they want the lot
Chasing the Dragon
Mr Sum controls the purse strings of one of China's largest property developers, and the striking 63-level, 633 unit high-rise Eq Tower is state-owned Sino Ocean Land's first development foray outside the People's Republic
He's not the only one. A new Chinese entrant, Sichuan-based Xiang Xing Group, this week spent $35 million buying a development-ready site in Melbourne's Southbank. Another huge state-owned enterprise, Shanghai-based Greenland Holding Group, already has four projects on its books worth $1.4 billion.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/chinese-investors-are-pushing-into-melbo…
new-tower-has-tensions-rising
The developer, CEL Australia, a subsidiary of Singapore-based Chip Eng Seng Corporation Ltd, bought the site in September last year for $25 million. Much of the tower's marketing material is aimed at China and the developer is using real estate agents with networks in the Chinese investor market.
http://www.theage.com.au/new-tower-that-has-tensions-rising
Soon they will discover Auckland
“Obviously if your house isn’t feng shui-friendly, it’s like we’re not even going to have a conversation”
There are two sides to the NZ housing market - demand & supply.
On the demand side the Government needs to manage the net rolling 12 month migration rate to what NZ can handle both in terms of land supply for housing and availaibility of labour to build the housing.
The Government has the ability to adjust the number of points needed to permanently enter NZ &/or quota the numbers entering when net inbound demand is excessive. This could even be managed by the RBNZ as a macroprudential tool.
There are two sides to the NZ housing market - demand & supply.
On the demand side the Government needs to manage the net rolling 12 month migration rate to what NZ can handle both in terms of land supply for housing and availaibility of labour to build the housing.
The Government has the ability to adjust the number of points needed to permanently enter NZ &/or quota the numbers entering when net inbound demand is excessive. This could even be managed by the RBNZ as a macroprudential tool.
Interesting comments on Public Address showing the hypocrisy of the left
"The Chinese presence in Hong Kong has diluted our local culture. My office was in Tsimshatsui, a shopping district popular among rich Chinese tourists. Everyday, I heard more Mandarin (the official dialect of China) than Cantonese (the mother tongue of most Hongkongers). Small local restaurants, shops and even McDonald’s have been replaced by jewellery stores, pharmacies and cosmetic stores because many Chinese don’t trust merchants or manufacturers in China. They stock up on supplies when they visit our city. Hong Kong parents even have a hard time finding baby formula sometimes.
Many merchants now cater to only Chinese tourists, incorporating or even replacing traditional Chinese (the writing system used in Hong Kong) with simplified Chinese (used in China). Some schools have adopted Mandarin as their teaching medium.
Hongkongers are ethnically Chinese. Our nationality is also technically Chinese now, but we feel very strongly that our culture and customs are vastly different from that of the Chinese. Hongkongers often correct foreigners when we are called “Chinese”. The British governed us for more than a century under the rule of law. We had an uncorrupted government. We enjoyed liberty and the freedom of speech, press, and assembly. But all these have been fading away since the handover because our current government officials and lawmakers are not elected by popular votes. They are not accountable to us, but to Chinese interests."
To which a commeter asks:
Joshua Grainger, 6 days ago
You say that because of the influx of mainlanders and thus the dilution of the Hong Konger identity that many Hong Kongers are moving overseas. Surely that’s a little bit hypocritical: aren’t Hong Kongers moving, to say, Auckalnd, the same as mainlanders moving to Hong Kong? The concern about the shops of the old Hong Kong disappearing in favour of those that appeal to mainlanders seems to be reminiscent of Winston Peters old concern about corner stores disappearing and being replaced with Cantonese restaurants, TCM providers, and Asian supermarkets.
To which the one eyed Russell Brown Replies:
Let me answer this: no. The Chinese government doesn’t run New Zealand let alone tear-gas Aucklanders in the street, the language (written and spoken) is in no danger of disappearing, retail still serves the needs of residents, the scale of migration and tourism is in no way comparable. It’s just not a comparison.
http://publicaddress.net/system/cafe/speaker-foreign-forces-hope-and-hong-kongs/#replies
The problem is that the oppostion is crooked (phoney/false).
Far too conservative I would say.
The REINZ median for the Auckland metro was $630k in September - 10% growth per year for the next three years would result in a median of only $840k. Pathetic - that's barely 10-11 times household income - I would say if we all put our minds to it and really speculate and borrow hard enough we might be able to get to 12-13 times income over that timeframe. If we can't achieve this then interest rates are clearly too high and the government has done too much to remedy the situation.
Leverage up while you still can.
So migration is up - so what.
House prices in Auckland are not currently rising. The numbers don't lie.
People need to stick to the facts and not be persuaded by those with vested interests.
The heading says "....but three banks think it will go higher". Banks will say whatever they can to talk dummies into borrowing more money.
Here's NZ First's take;
The National government is using uncontrolled migration as a crude device to drive down wages and lower living standards, says New Zealand First.
"Minister of Immigration Michael Woodhouse quibbled over terminology, and refused to adequately answer questions on numbers in Parliament today," says New Zealand First Member of Parliament Ron Mark.
"It was a poor show and reinforces our belief that National is content with a record level of migration.
"How is Auckland supposed to plan given a significant number of the people who come to New Zealand will settle in our biggest city?
"With net migration at the highest ever figure of 45,400, the government should be building thousands of houses a year just for new New Zealanders, but in fact, they have only built five houses for everyone.
"An urgent debate is needed on how many people New Zealand needs - we must ensure there are benefits for our country and not adverse effects. We must have a plan.
"Just last month the British Labour Party admitted that open-door immigration in the UK had undercut workers’ wages and lowered living standards.
"The party also admitted it had covered up a string of damaging reports about the impact of mass immigration," says Mr Mark.
"Uncontrolled migration is forcing Kiwis into queues for hospital beds, housing and jobs. It’s unfair on New Zealanders."
Uncontrolled immigration puts pressure on schools as well because generally immigrants have larger families. A great number of UK primary schools teach pupils who have English as their second language and as many as 40-different languages are spoken in one classroom. The pressure on educationalists is becoming intollerable.
If current levels of immigration were to continue in the UK for the next 20-years they would have to build 12-cities the size of Birmingham to accommodate them all. Is this what New Zealanders want for their country?
Ron Mark is dead right here. I am visiting horrid Auckland at present and am shocked at the sheer number of Asian folk, many old and frail, obviously recently domicile in this city - now before all poofty modern readers scream "racist" - not so; my objection is purely pragmatic and I am sure the migrants are mostly very nice people. Even better in their own land. This place (NZ) just cannot cope (neither socially nor necessities) with such an influx. Two stupid things lazy western governments have done post WW2, as an easy quest for "growth": debase the currency and allow such immigation. I don't see reciprocal arrangements in the latter case being offered to us in the East (not that I'd be a starter).
Ergophobia
Tommo, Whilst I agree with yr first point about the odious Left, I have to object to the second claim that this site illiberally censors for them. Bernard does appear to have gone over to the Dark Side and DC wiffs of it at times too (specially for corporate welfare) - but I am an Olde Curmudgeonly Tory and do get stuck into them here. They always tolerate me.
Very simply, the immigration problem, and it is a problem was covered up for years while we were bleeding NZ born citizens to Australia mainly. Now that tap has turned down but not off completely we suffer the burden of too many immigrants than we can easily absorb.
That is readily seen in Auckland because immigrants are now mainly staying in Auckland. To give it an ethnic (note not racist) twist, whereas in the past the European arrivals distributed themselves across the country, the mainly Asian groups do not move nearly as readily.
What governments of both hues do not see is that immigration needs to be controlled for the good of those already here and not for their own selfish economic urges.
Auckland is not the worse for immigrants but it is the worse for too many, too quickly and needs relief to catch up. If that means stopping the flow altogether for an extended period, sobeit.
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