Here's my summary of the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news China is thinking about joining the Trans Pacific Partnership negotiations.
But first in the US, sales of new single-family houses in May 2014 were at the annual rate of 504,000. This is almost 19% above the revised April 2014 estimate of 425,000 and far higher than markets were expecting. And the 4.5 month supply was a sharp decrease from the 5.5 months supply at the end of March. Volumes may be rising, but price rises are slowing. And maybe that will help make their recovery more sustainable.
One reason for these housing improvements might be that American consumer confidence is higher than expected; in fact it is now at its highest level since January 2008. Still, that is not a very high standard - there are big improvements over a low base and one that has been low for a long time.
There was also a release yesterday of Australian consumer confidence and that is picking up too after its dramatic fall to below 100 when the Aussie budget was released. By consumers there are still averse to spending.
Staying in Australia, their meteorologists are starting to backtrack on their claim that a major El Nino event is coming. They are now saying there is an "absence of the necessary atmospheric response". They still reckon it is on the way, but the evidence seems to be less certain.
On the world trade negotiation front, the Trans Pacific Partnership talks may be struggling with its Japan aspects, but a key official in China now says that they should join the negotiations. He sees at least 2% additional growth for China if they were part of a successful round. Key TPP decisions will come later this year, after US elections.
The UST 10yr yields are at 2.61% today, gold has inched higher to $1,320/oz, which the price of oil has fallen slightly in the US and flatlined in the Brent benchmark. Stocks in New York have given up their run at the 2000 index level and are down in afternoon trade.
We start today with the NZ dollar still very high and with little change overnight. We are at 86.9 USc, 92.6 AUc and the TWI is at 80.9.
If you want to catch up with all the changes yesterday we have an update here.
The easiest place to stay up with today's event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here »
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9 Comments
On a local level , hows the Herald story about luxury shuttle busses for Auckland Council staff ?
Its enough to piss me off frankly , they want the public to ride in noisy , dirty, smelly old MAN busses with millions of kilometres on the clock , but that august body of public servants get a "special bus" , a fleet of spanking new mid sized Mercedes Benz luxury coahes , no less .
Furthermore , I recently noticed Auckland Transport has acquired some top of the line 4x4 Toyota SUV's
What on earth does anyone in Auckland Transport need a luxury 4X4 SUV for ?
All those terrible gravel Roads in Aucklands CBD maybe ?
I resent paying for this largesse and extravaganmt waste of ratepayers resources.
These people need to be brought into line , and live within their means like the rest of us do .
Highly recommended and interesting, should be presented and discussed in all High Schools and Colleges.
The Accelerated Crash Course by Chris Martenson
Newly adapted after the initial Crash Course first published years ago, this is now available as video, which has condensed a content of about 4,5 hours into just a little under one hour.
www.peakprosperity.com/blog/85873/why-next-20-years-will-be-completely-…
For those following the proposed Ruataniwha Dam project, or who live in Hawke's Bay; "Hawke's Bay Regional Council has voted to invest $80 million of ratepayers money in the Ruataniwha Dam subject to several conditions being met."
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/regional/248156/ruataniwha-investment-bac…
"Staying in Australia, their meteorologists are starting to backtrack on their claim that a major El Nino event is coming. They are now saying there is an "absence of the necessary atmospheric response". They still reckon it is on the way, but the evidence seems to be less certain."
For those that didn't follow the link they are saying that an El Nino is 70% likely to occur this year, compared to 80% likely to occur this year probabliliy estimated a few months ago. That isn't quite what I would describe as backtracking.
backtracking would be more like Hirepool,
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11280935
by whom, market seems be moving on
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11281421
does that make it a refusal or a matter of repricing?
El Nino, really DC? this comes across as no worries, ignore it. El Nino, whether it is this year, next or within a 5 year timeframe is very short in terms of deciding what to do to mitigate it as a country and as a farmer. So it is really moot, except in not bothering to decide a strategy/plan as it will happen is plain crazy IMHO.
So how about some analysis of such an event on our economy? What would a hot dry year or 2 do to farms? stress animals? sold off cheap? hydro lake levels get low? ie power cuts?
The other side of the coin would be how to profit financially from such an event.
Also in terms of farms what is the moral hazard of denying climate change? farmers expect handouts? which will be more frequent and harsher but that's OK the PAYE pays.
maybe the PAYErs should just let the farms go bankrupt and get bought at a fair price in fire sales given the future climate.
regards
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