Here's my summary of the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news from the US Fed.
This morning it cut its 2014 growth forecast because of the weaker-than-expected Q1 start, and it made another cut to its monthly bond buying program, confirming it will cease them altogether later this year.
It also said that US growth is bouncing back and the job market is improving and expressed confidence the recovery was largely on track and would allow it to begin raising interest rates in 2015. Its growth expectations for 2015 and 2016 remain the same.
Markets have rallied on the Fed statement. Stocks are higher, bond yields are lower, and despite the tensions in Ukraine and Iraq, the gold and oil prices dipped.
Markets are sensing a 'risk-on' mood and that usually bolsters the value of currencies like the NZ dollar. After yesterday's strong current account result, and the expectation that today's GDP growth data release will also be good, the kiwi dollar is rising this morning and is currently over 87 USc, almost at 93 AUc, and the TWI is over 81.
In other news, lawyers for Argentina and for hedge funds that did not take part in its debt restructuring are in court in New York today in what could be a last-ditch attempt by the country to avoid default.
India's new government yesterday imposed export restrictions on some farm products and ordered a crackdown on hoarding to control rising food prices, a day after wholesale price inflation hit a five-month high.
In China a big new fraud is about to be uncovered. A favourite way to finance projects is to back the loans with commodity stockpiles. Copper and aluminium are widely used. But major state-owned trader Citic Resources can't locate about half of its alumina stockpiles it had stored at China's Qingdao port. Local observers said this sort of shortfall is just the tip of the iceberg, and multi-counting of such commodities will throw vast uncertainty over all the loans that are commodity-backed.
On top of that, a debt crisis looms for China's local authorities, according to State media reports.
The benchmark UST 10yr bond yield is at 2.63% this morning and as mentioned earlier, the NZD is now at 87.1 USc, at 93.0 AUc and the TWI is at 81.1.
If you want to catch up with all the changes from yesterday we have an update here.
The easiest place to stay up with today's event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here »
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3 Comments
Interesting those export restrictions. Lets look at their impact if this happens globally.
There is "apparantly" more than enough food to feed the world (not true going forward IMHO but that's another thread) What happens to the "excess" for export if a country keeps extra at home to depress domestic prices? That suggests a global shortage in other countries.
What happens if there are weather events in say Thailand devistating crops? and with an El Nino India's out is way down?
So the speculators will jump in buying futures? forcing prices artificailly high?
shortages / high prices lead to riots?
regards
China imported 148 billion m3 of water last year. Ditch the milk, sell the rain...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-18/fubar-ii-china-must-import-more-water-us-imports-oil
Warnings of oil surge:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-iraqi-oil-goes-off-line-200-oil-is-…
''The sad fact is that out of 12 OPEC members, eight of them are collectively in decline. When summed together Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar and Venezuela were producing just over 14.5 million barrels per day in early 2005; but are now producing just 11.25 mbd.
These countries are losing nearly 500 thousand barrels per day of production per year.''
Angola alone lost 400,000 bpd of production in the last year as its rapidly depleting offshore wells struggled:
http://www.macauhub.com.mo/en/2014/05/21/oil-exports-from-angola-fall-a…
David Chaston 11th June 4.00pm, What you need to know. 'Off the oil shackle. Clearly the price of oil no longer is holding us hostage'.
You might come to regret that claim Mr C.........
Brent touched $114.50 today.
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