World Cup hits business confidence

Confidence for economy over coming year lowest since February quake as respondents blame RWC for depressing business, BNZ survey shows

10th Oct 11, 12:03pm by Alex Tarrant

Confidence for the economy slumped in October as a high number of businesses note the Rugby World Cup is having a depressing effect on activity, a monthly survey from BNZ shows.

BNZ chief economist Tony Alexander said only a net 6.9% of the 391 respondents to his monthly email survey expected an improvement in the economy over the year ahead, down from a net 36.3% in September.

October recorded the lowest reading in confidence since immediately after the February 22 earthquake that struck Canterbury, and continued a downward trend from a record high in June, Alexander said.

"No clear theme comes through the written responses explaining why sentiment has changed so much, with only a few respondents explicitly noting the poor news from offshore.

No-one cited the credit rating downgrades. But there were a high number of people who noted that the Rugby World Cup is having a depressing effect on their current levels of business," Alexander said.

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26 Comments

by Nicholas Arrand | 10th Oct 11, 1:21pm 1318206085

So I guess it's down to The Hobbit and the Christchurch rebuild to save us then! How are they both going, by the way, Tony........

by andyh | 10th Oct 11, 1:40pm 1318207227

Chuckle. The high numbers of people who say the RWC is having a DEPRESSING effect on their current levels of business!!

You could not make this stuff up.

by Kate | 10th Oct 11, 3:11pm 1318212716

Well not only do you have the value of ticket sales by NZers sucked out of the general economy - but those not in attendance are likely at home watching, as opposed to out spending/shopping in their leisure time.

All quite predictable and (if memory serves me right) the trend has been well documented in the economic analyses post-major events, such as Olympic Games. The economic benefits to the host nation are usually negative.

Wasn't one of the great Greek spend up items post the Euro introduction, Athens hosting the Olympic Games. Few of those specialist facilities ever contribute a positive ROI - even in the long run.

by Nicholas Arrand | 10th Oct 11, 3:26pm 1318213581

It took Montreal 30 years to pay off it’s 1976 Olympic games, projected to cost $300 million before hand, and left it with a $1.5 billion debt. Makes our $39 million projected shortfall ( if that's all it is) look tame!

by David B | 11th Oct 11, 2:54pm 1318298062

For once I agree with you Kate. I also thought it was well known (for the reasons you state) that these large sporting events seldom make any money for the hosting city/country, but rather leave large losses. That is why I always rolled my eyes every time somebody said the RWC would make the country rich as a justification for hosting it. There are of course intangible benefits that we all know of e.g., enhanced brand recognition for New Zealand as a tourist destination, but I think even that benefit is somewhat overstated. While I was up in Bangkok a few weeks ago, I ran into a young Thai man who enthused about New Zealand and his experience of walking the Milford Track two years ago. When I asked him about the RWC, he didn't even know what rugby was. So what market is the RWC really reaching?

by Kate | 11th Oct 11, 10:12pm 1318324325

So what market is the RWC really reaching?

The NZ psyche market.

Sort of like I get the impression in the US - that if it weren't for football - they populus might turn their attention to more pressing issues - hence lawmakers love football season.

by Captain Kidd | 10th Oct 11, 3:51pm 1318215060

andyh.

We were sold a pup by Mr Sneddon.September for our business (hotel) was down 11% over last September.The RWC had a NEGATIVE effect on business for us and many more businesses that I know.They said up to 85000 visitors to NZ over the RWC period,but I would be surprised if NZ got any where near these figures.I would guess that the majority of tickets were purchased by NZs thereby reducing money in other parts of the economy.

by andyh | 10th Oct 11, 4:23pm 1318216983

I am not surprised captain. Here in Nelson retailers outside hospitality have been saying things were actually depressed relative to last year during the period of the 3 games we hosted. I am sure expenditure has just been pulled forward or out of other sectors of the economy.

I do hope someone in the media collates all the info on this and runs with it, if only to shut some of the local politicians up.

Just as an additional point - an Irish mate of mine e-mailed me to say how surprised he was to see that there were empty seats in the stadiums for the QFs. In fact from the figures quoted below, none of the QFs were sellouts, even the AB game - 3000 short of a sell out. Ticket price too high methinks:

http://stats.espnscrum.com/scrum/rugby/records/team/highest_attendance…

England/France was 11,000 short.

by Nicholas Arrand | 10th Oct 11, 4:40pm 1318218029

My wife asked me"'When is the game on?" when I flicked on the telly last night. "It can't be for a while", I said, "The stands haven't filled up yet"...then the ref blew the time-on whistle!

by Colin Riden | 10th Oct 11, 2:12pm 1318209145

No clear theme comes through the written responses explaining why sentiment has changed so much

It may not be explicitly understood yet, but the toll being taken by relentless government incompetence is starting to register.

by goNZ | 10th Oct 11, 4:30pm 1318217448

But at least we can all do the haka now

Great for business

by Matt in Auck | 10th Oct 11, 4:30pm 1318217451

That's a dire result, but as predictable (and as poorly planned for) as the all black's problems at first five.

by prosperopink | 10th Oct 11, 5:08pm 1318219733

Yes, we should all love the Haka. Our pride and joy, the pinnacle of New Zealand's achievement and the collective expression of national pride. Executed at all sporting fixtures, school occasions and funerals. (Tm pending)

We might be crap at just about everything but boy, can we stick out our tongues and slap our tits in a really scary way.

by David B | 11th Oct 11, 3:01pm 1318298461

Am I the only person in this country who dislikes the haka and cringes every time I see it?

by muzza | 10th Oct 11, 5:32pm 1318221150

The RWC has put NZ on the map, that's a positive. But because so many people's attention is being taken by the event, normal business is on hold to an extent. Can't be good for real estate agents either. Once the RWC is over, it'll be back to politics and economics, quite depressing isn't it?

by Nicholas Arrand | 10th Oct 11, 5:45pm 1318221940

Remember the '99 RWC in Wales, muzza? What can you tell me about Wales you didn't know before hand? That's how much NZ has been put on the map by the current competition.

by rastus1 | 11th Oct 11, 8:51am 1318276288

'putting is on the map' is one of those meaningless terms when our leaders and promotors can't justify what they are doing. Hamilton got sold the pup with the V8's because they would put Hamilton on 'the map'

We delude oursleves in thinking that the World is wathching the rugby. It rates about as highly as tiddlewinks in most countries. Worldwide its a non event.

The Rugby World Cup and Hamilton v8's have a lot in common...both pitched as promising the earth, full financial impact withheld but overstated, the media & public so excited they never asked the right questions....................and both leaving a legacy of debt for the ever suffering public.

by Matt in Auck | 10th Oct 11, 6:44pm 1318225450

yeah beyond small groups of rugby supporters in a small number of countries, the RWC would have done bugger all for NZ's reputation

Here in Adelaide, almost no one cares about it!

by Matt in Auck | 10th Oct 11, 6:47pm 1318225653

can someone tell me why they play that spanish sounding horn interlude at each kickoff, with the crowd then shouting "Ole"? Thats a real Kiwi statement!

I thought it was quite bizarre as I watched the ABs vs Pumas game, especially given the Pumas' spanish heritage

by Matt in Auck | 10th Oct 11, 8:18pm 1318231120

I think this article really does show how one -dimensional economists are when they look at economic benefits and costs. I think a number of us on this site have been saying for months and months that there would be negative economic outcomes from the RWC that would cancel out the positives, yet somehow the genius economists didn't seem to have worked that one out

and things will get worse when the ABs lose to the Wallabies. I'm sorry but although Cruden played well when he came on, that was against a tiring Pumas and he's not experienced enough and is too light, and OMG that muppet Donald is back as back up

by Sheep Shagger | 10th Oct 11, 10:40pm 1318239640

We have just returned from an enjoyable trip to Auckland for QF weekend.

Our experience was that the party centeral/fanzone area was chokka and all abuzz but the likes Parnell, Ponsonby rd and Dominion rd areas were quite subdued. Taxi drivers were reporting it being quite as most of the tourists had campervans or rental cars.

The main negative for us was the price of booze. Im not sure what usual priceing is up there but we felt we were getting gouged and subsequently by last night headed back to our rented house with via a bottle store. That said we talked to alot of visiting fans and they without exception were raving about their experiences.

Eden Park was looking fantasic after its upgrade and the statue of the great Micheal Jones was very well done. The contrasting atmosphere of the two fixtures was stark. England France was pretty relaxed and with the majority of the crowd being neuteral a festive atmosphere prevailed. The mood for the ABs was much more tense and was heading towards grim at about the 60 min mark. The late rally lifted the mood somewhat but it was a pretty pensive crowd that headed home.An interesting snapshot of our national persona. Much work to be done but credit to Argentinian tenacity too.

Why they didnt drop the ticket prices to fill the remaining seats mystifies me. I would have no problem sitting next to someone who had gotten a cheap ticket at the last minute. There could have been some sort of take a kid to footy type deal to fill the seats and help inspire the next generation of budding ABs.

So about 8/10 Auckland, which is pretty good from a southern sheep farmer with Scotish tendancies!

by rastus1 | 11th Oct 11, 8:54am 1318276493

I guess Auckland does look pretty good if you are used to spending your down time shaggin sheep.....

by kowtow | 11th Oct 11, 10:22am 1318281775

As far as rugby supporters are concerned NZ is already on the mapAlways has been.

Since when do we erect statues in to commemorate people who are still alive and of relatively little merit?

This and the RWC spendup epitomises the debt crisis we are in.

Spend ,spend ,spend.......on what? Booze and a feel good factor!

Central and local government are crazy blowing citizens money on entertaining the plebeians in so called party centrals and fan zones.

If you want to party ,pay for it yourself. Want to watch the footie, then buy a ticket or get Sky.

This should not be a charge on the long suffering taxpayer.

And don't blame Key for this, this is a Labour project.

Bread and circus.

Long live the emperor.

Talking of hakas......the establishment has done a great jobof embedding it in the NZ consciousness.I recall TV footage of a bunch of white middle class Otago uni students doing it in "challenge "to the police during a drunken riot in Dunedin a few years ago.

NZ culture indeed!

by MiniMe | 11th Oct 11, 10:44am 1318283042

@ Sheep Shagger. I can't recall who (RWC officials??) said a few weeks before the start of the rugby that despite there still being a lot of outstanding tickets they wouldn't drop the price. Dug themselves into a hole and while the spotlight was on everyone could see that there were spare seats at some awesome quarter finals.

by Gareth Vaughan | 11th Oct 11, 11:30am 1318285855

Fresh story here with the rugby apparently having little impact on electronic card spending - http://www.interest.co.nz/news/56124/businessdesk-rwc-has-little-impact…

by muzza | 11th Oct 11, 1:53pm 1318294426

NA, I well remember Wales, in fact took a sabbatical last year and spent some time on a narrow boat going along canals through some great countryside. We (4 of us) even stopped off at a pub one night, entered a quiz and came out with 220 quid(!), so we took off to Cardiff in time for the Wales v Springboks game, won by the Boks 33-30. Great place!

My attitude is to make the most of things, don't get all negative and enjoy life while relatively young. Am taking off at end of this week to Auckland, have booked into a resort for a week, going to the semi on Sunday, catch up with some old team mates from playing days and enjoying the vibe for the week. If AB's win that's just a bonus.Then back to making money the next week! Too much fixation on the economics is not really productive.