By Alex Tarrant
New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose unexpectedly in the December quarter to 6.8% from 6.4% in the September quarter, as part-time employment fell, figures released by Statistics New Zealand show.
The rise does not bode well for December quarter GDP figures, which had been expected to show the New Zealand economy did not contract for two consecutive quarters, after a fall of 0.2% in the September quarter. The figures also raise the chance the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will keep the Official Cash Rate on hold at 3% until at least September this year.
The New Zealand dollar fell by about half a cent immediately after the news, from 77.75 US cents to 77.25 US cents. It fell likewise against the Australian dollar.
The median economist expectation according to a Reuters poll had been for the unemployment rate to remain at 6.4%. Of the major New Zealand banks, ASB had forecast 6.8%, ANZ 6.6%, BNZ 6.4% and Westpac 6.2%. The unemployment rate is seasonally adjusted.
“Results over the past twelve months indicate that the labour market has struggled to gain momentum following the recent economic downturn,” Stats NZ labour market statistics manager Peter Gardiner said in a media release.
“However, while the December quarter results indicate a further deterioration in the labour market, key indicators are showing an improvement since this time last year, with lower unemployment and positive annual employment growth,” Gardiner said.
Unemployment was down from a revised 7% (revised from 7.1%) in the December 2009 quarter.
During the December 2010 quarter part-time employment decreased 2.8% from September while full-time employment increased 0.3%, Stats NZ said. Actual hours worked per week increased 0.2%.
Employment falls 0.5%
The number of employed people in the labour force fell by 0.5%, or 11,000 to 2,182,000 during the December quarter. This compared to an expected rise of 0.2% in the number of employed people according to the Reuters poll.
The number of unemployed rose 5.1%, or 8,000 to 158,000, Stats NZ said.
The number of people in the labour force – those in or actively seeking employment – fell 0.1% to 2,341,000. A rise in the working age population of 0.4% to 3,442,800 meant the labour force participation rate fell 0.4 points to 67.9%.
The number of working age people not in the labour force rose 1.6%, or 17,000 to 1,107,000.
The unemployment rate had been volatile throughout 2010, falling from 7% in December 2009 to 6% in March, before rising to 6.9% in June and falling to 6.4% in September.
Statistical analyst Will Bell said Stats NZ had been looking at the data due to the volatility, but had not found any errors.
Statistics New Zealand’s trend series for the unemployment figures show it rising steadily from 6.3% in June to 6.7% in December.
New Zealand now had the twelfth lowest unemployment rate in the OECD, from eleventh in the September quarter, Statistics New Zealand said.
Here is the reaction from ASB economist Jane Turner:
The Q4 labour market data proved weaker than expected (although was in line with the weakness signaled by the QES survey). With today’s result adding to the run of underwhelming data, it is clear the economic recovery has been very patchy and struggled to keep traction over the second half of 2010. Nonetheless, there are clear signs that underlying labour demand is lifting, and is likely to flow through to increased employment over 2011 as business confidence recovers. But for the time being, low and stimulatory interest rates are required to help the economic recovery gather momentum, and we do not expect the RBNZ to lift interest rates until September 2011.
Market reaction:
The NZD has dropped just over 0.5c against the USD and AUD and short-term swap rates have fallen 5-7 basis points in the wake of the release of the data.
Here is the government's reaction from Social Development Minister Paula Bennett
The number of people officially unemployed has risen in the last quarter, says Social Development and Employment Minister Paula Bennett.
The Statistics New Zealand rate, which includes those aged 15 years and over seeking one or more hours work a week, has increased from 6.4% to 6.8%.
“We are still very much in a slow recovery, making the Government’s push towards investment to create sustainable jobs vital,” says Ms Bennett.
There was a 0.3 percent increase in full time employment. Part time employment has fallen by 2.8%.
Statistics New Zealand figures show 27,000 jobs were created in 2010.
"Ideally the rate would be dropping, but it's not uncommon to see a rise the rate at this time of year and last Decemeber quarter it was 7.4%," says Ms Bennett.
“The road to recovery is a bumpy one, employers have boosted working hours before hiring new staff, but they’re indicating they’ll take on more staff this year,” says Ms Bennett.
“It’s clear the 90-day trial is vital to give employers that extra bit of confidence to be able to employ new people on in this environment,” says Ms Bennett.
The number of young people in work has risen by more than 5,400 over the last year and the number of young people who are NEET (Not in Education Employment or Training) has fallen from 10.5% to 9.8%.
The Youth Unemployment rate fell from 18.4% to 16.8% over 2010.
“What we’re also seeing is more young people staying in education or returning to do more study, which makes sense,” says Ms Bennett.
The Maori unemployment rate fell from 16.2% to 15.5% in the December quarter.
Pacific Youth unemployment rates fell from 29.8% to 27.2% over the same period.
New Zealand’s 6.8% unemployment rate compares to UK (7.8%), Australia (5.0%) and Ireland (13.9%).
(Updates with Labour reaction in video, govt reaction, NZ$ reaction, chart)
The chart below uses unadjusted figures from Stats NZ
Unemployment
Select chart tabs
122 Comments
Unemployment, the loss of skill and another recession just on our door step and our Ministers Brownlee, Joyce etc. are allocating orders for infrastructure needs still to foreign companies. How much longer in this country are we waiting to make our parliamentarians accountable for their actions- respectively inactions ?
Economists wrong again? And Bernard believed them to at 9am this morning!
Definitely (well 90%) a double dip in the December quarter! Ah, NZ worldbeaters at something yet again!
Wasn't the rate 6% in March? And I told you back then there numbers looked far too dodgy to be accurate. Stats NZ's reliability is really now bought into question, maybe they should start reading CVs and employ mathematicians instead of the mathemagicians already on the workforce.
Chris J
Interesting point on volatility. Stats NZ stands by their numbers.
When I report what the economists predict, that doesn't mean I agree with them.
I agree with you that the economy is really struggling to get going again. I've been sceptical of Key and co's comments last year of a quick rebound.
We'll see what the economists say now.
But a September OCR hike now looks more likely than a June one and there has to be questions now about whether we see one in 2011 at all.
cheers
Bernard
I'd never claim you to be wrong, would I Bernard?
Anyway, back in May you might recall I posted some "observations" from the Stats NZ survey which is what made me believe the March 2010 fall in unemployment was erroneous.
Yes I know it's only survey data, but the numbers didn't look quite right. Here's what I posted on:
http://www.interest.co.nz/news/unemployment-rate-falls-more-expected-60…
07 May 10, 3:24pm
Take a look at where these "actual" jobs were "created":
Northland: down 800
Auckland: down 1100
Waikato down 2000
BOP: down 3800
Hawkes Bay/Gisborne: Up 400
Taranaki: down 400
Manawatu/Wanganui: down 2300
Wellington: down 3200
West Coast/Nelson/Marlborough: Up 100
Canterbury: up 100
Southland: up 1700
OK of those 11 regions just 4 were up (only 1 in NI). Net result a loss of 11,300 jobs.
But I left out one region. Miraculously Otago gained 7000 jobs (quick congratulate Mayor Chin). I'M IN DUNEDIN RIGHT NOW AND I CAN GUARANTEE YOU WITHOUT A DOUBT THAT THERE COULD NOT POSSIBLY BE 7000 NEW JOBS IN THE REGION SINCE DEC2009 OR 17,200 NEW JOBS SINCE MARCH2009 (that would be a 17.7% increase in jobs in the region - how can that be with Queenstown/Central construction in a tailspin - even allowing for the new Dunedin stadium which employs perhaps a few hundred?).
Anyway net result on StatsNZ figures is that there are 4,300 less jobs in March 2010 than Dec 2009.
The fact their survey shows that the working age population in Otago rose 25% in 3 years which if you assume their estimates to be at the extremity of their 95% confidence interval suggests Otago's population still rose 13% in 3 years - which is 5 times what StatsNZ report in their demographic estimates!
So with 100% confidence I can say that the estimates for Otago's working age population are not within the 95% confidence intervals. So for some reason there is a statistical outlier which is making nonsense of their population estimates. Why??
Variations in other region population estimates all appear well within the 95% confidence interval. (Even for smaller regions with higher absolute errors - the maximum variation is less than half that of Otago's)
Has this made a difference to the numbers? I don't know, if there is an error in the Otago numbers - maybe. Remember the unemployment rate in Otago apparently doubled but 7000 jobs were created. So could it be conceivable that actually say 12,000 jobs were lost nationwide rather 4,300? Which when you consider that they've probably overestimated the seasonal adjustment (I'll get to that below), the adjusted figure might look more like +9/10,000 jobs rather than 22k.
Seasonal Adjustment Dec - Mar were:
2006/07 Actual +8k SA +29 variation +20.6
2007/08 Actual -49K SA -28 variation +20.9
2008/09 Actual -55k SA -29 variation +25.8
2009/10 Actual -4.4 SA +22 variation +26.8
I can just see plenty of "revisions" being done to these survey results next quarter.
BTW: Doesn't publishing a comment in their report like this ring any alarm bells:
"In the year to March 2010, the working-age population increased in Auckland (by 42,800 to 1,053,600) and in Otago (by 22,500 to 176,400)."
Dunedin's population up 15%, Auckland's up 4%. As I said impossible within a 95% confidence level.
If this is the standard of their work why pay any attention to their numbers.
Chris, I think your comments are spot on.
We are in recession but are still denying it. And in recession despite the government borrowing $300 million a week to keep up entitlements. But the ASB comes up with this:
"With today’s result adding to the run of underwhelming data, it is clear the economic recovery has been very patchy and struggled to keep traction over the second half of 2010."
What crap - it has to be the spin of a mainstream bank economist - keep repeating the word recovery and maybe we will start believe in it.
It's awful; not unexpected and will worsen. My step-son was laid off from his apprenticeship at Christmas. No show of getting in again, in Christchurch; so we're sending him off to his uncle's in Sydney ( Yep! ~ Where all but we are now!) hopefully, for a better shot at life from there.
Oh dear !! A balooning welfare and public state, and less private sector workers who are able to be taxed to pay for it all.
Never mind, I'm sure Key and English will just borrow some more to cover the shortfall. The "recession" is just temporary right, we'll recover eventually won't we?
Well if not, there is always manipulation of statistics I suppose.
Lets take ballooning....
1) around me public sector ppl are being paid off.....so no the bit that's ballooning is welfare costs.
2) Public sector is a misnomer for me....eg the public sector supplies a public service where otherwise a voter would have to pay a private company to get the good.
Health for instance where publically provided is 1/2 the cost of a private system, covers 100% of the people and gives a longer life expectancy....I'd rather see us spend 8% of GDP on health than 18% any day....6% private tax for a worse outcome makes no sense.
Education....few ppl can afford to educate their children at private school fees so the cost is socialised over a parent's working life....yes I can agree private education is generally probably better, but its not better per dollar spent...
Lets take borrowing,
1) National cut taxes for the better off, it hasnt paid off from what I can see in an improvement for NZ.....the cut should have been canned and then we'd be borrowing less.
2) Irelend tried cutting costs, ie publix worker wages, it didnt save it from the stupidity of the middle and higher income earners over-investing in over-valued property....
Recession recovery, no we wont.....National are clearly without a clue....or capable of admitting that now its raise taxes time to cut the deficit....
Ther is no other viable option.
Sadly the Labour opposition's solution is tax a bit more but spend it and more.....which is even worse.
regards
But Bollard said things were starting to look better. This "top down" way of managing the economy is a joke. Bolly needs to take an afternoon off to visit the Upper Hutt shopping centre ghost town, or count all the For Lease signs in industrial Petone-Seaview, or hang out with the unemployed youths at North City Plaza. On The Terrace they are just SO out of touch with what's happening at the coalface.
It's noticeable in Christchurch that despite perhaps 200 or more retail shops demolished or cordoned off (that were mostly occupied pre Sep 4), that there are still hundreds of retail shops able to be occupied but vacant and for lease. The prime central part of Riccarton Road had 8 to 10 shops demolished. Prior to the earthquake there had been few vacanies, now despite losing the buildings about there are now about half a dozen of those remaining with shop for lease signs.
Papanui is a similar story. Sydenham far worse. Where have all these businesses gone? I think the earthquake was the final straw for many - even if their building was undamaged.
...... sums Labour up , Alex , no energy , no pizzazz ......... just a little re-shuffle happening , mostly the same bums , butt on different seats .
Grant Robertson to Health . Parker to Energy . Shane Jones to Transport . Adern in . Dyson on State Services . Derryn Hughes into ........... ah , who really cares .........
Unemployment will rise further – with another recession looming. Making the correlations between occurring world events, the world is in far more trouble then most experts are saying.
Here in NZ in our region the tourist season is weak, below average with a number of businesses struggling – awaiting desperately the RWC – ha ! Looking into some world developments -will it happen ?
I think the time of playing political Kindergarten is over. It is time for our politicians and policymakers for an urgent "Contingency Plan" for the country.
My turn!...did I suggest there would be no growth until the housing was affordable...only then can the peasants save some income or spend it...and why is housing seriously unaffordable?...it wouldn't be to do with the banks farming the people would it...protected by the RBNZ and the govt!
Then we have the 'debasement strategy'....steal from those who saved and in time the debts can be washed away with the currency....what a stuff up of a policy. Even the greens can see the bubbles are kept in place because PIs and landlords are able to 'milk' the tax system...
The best that can happen is for the skilled unemployed labour to cross the ditch. That will leave winz with their usual client base of unskilled uneducated unqualified and unwilling.
The RWC will not change this pattern of going nowhere while borrowing billions.
If the Bernanke hanky panky commodity price boom comes to an end....this place will be toast.
Oh but the farmers are going to save us from ruin..they are going to splurge and spend as never before...bullshit.
He's actually one of the smarter conservatives, and a good deal more pragmatic. Than you, too.
His problem is the bigger picture, which you either don't want to, or are incapable of, grasping. And if he gets it (and my info is that the reality is being discussed in the backrooms) he can't possibly state it. Amidst howls of derision, he'd be out on his ear.
I agree, I suspect he gets it........but as you say to many ppl and especially in the Parties just dont want to know.....Goff gets it? not sure, his recent statements about stimulating growth suggest not.......JK said the stimulus should be showing 6% growth, its showing none....I cant believe that someone who made 50million before 40 amongst [other] sharks and made that statement hasnt thought about why its not happening. I think its only as good as flat for us because of external factors that have run their course and now look to make things way worse....
regards
I have updated with reaction from govt - Paula Bennett comments.
ALSO
Labour reshuffle sees more emphasis placed on Finance and the economy. Finance spokesman David Cunliffe stays at number 3, but new Associate finance spokeman David Parker is bumped from number 10 to number 4.
Trevor Mallard is also given associate finance role, along with Clayton Cosgrove.
Jacinda Ardern, who already had youth affairs, was given the 'employment' portfolio as well.
Phil Twyford, who had and still has 'Auckland issues' is given Local Government, but does not think there will be a bias toward Auckland
Story soon
Cheers
Alex
Guess we won't be seeing any Roger Kerr "raise the interest rates" articles for a few weeks then.
Well it is fairly obvious that flat or negative credit growth were always going to have this effect. We've gone from an injection of 15% GDP of loan/debt growth ('03 - '07) to zero in the private sector. And who wants to borrow with house prices falling, business flat and overcapacity everywhere you look.
The government OTOH are pumping in around 7% and digging us into a deepening hole in the process. What concerns me is that this borrowed money is just going to pay the grocery bill, no income producing assets are being produced, in fact they want to flog off what's left of core infrastructure assets. Crazy.
Let's not forget who else is to, BLAME:
http://www.realeconomy.co.nz/90-ocr_hike_reckless.aspx
http://www.realeconomy.co.nz/110-cut_the_ocr.aspx
http://www.realeconomy.co.nz/111-ocr_damage_continues.aspx
http://www.realeconomy.co.nz/119-nz_must_solve_its_own_currency.aspx
http://www.realeconomy.co.nz/121-control_inflation_in_the_non_t.aspx
http://www.realeconomy.co.nz/127-pragmatism_needed_on_currency.aspx
Repeated FAILURE is unacceptable.
It's not as though, "there is no alternative," is it?
Les.
The overall picture looks fairly simple.
The jobs are bleeding to China and elsehwere - a process well underway for most of 20 years now. As the number of inductries in whch we have critical mass locally falls, the vulnerability of remaining jobs is increased and the prospect of new jobs in the lost sectors is all but gone without imposition of import tarrifs or some natural / political event (here or elsewhere) not currently forseeable.
As the Republicans did in the US, our government has cut taxes to create a deficit they will eventually use to "downsize" the state and justify shoveulling the treasury into the pockets of the private sector. Meanwhile, "efficiency" and "productivity" will be "enhanced" by continued downward pressure on wages and working conditions in as many areas as possible....thus exacerbating the problem in the longer term for short term benefits.
I don't see any of this changing until NZ is governed in a different way than it has been for the past 30 years.....certainly since 1984. Not all that was done since then was bad....but a lot of it set the economy on a course that was certain to drain it of skilled poeple in a variety of industries - over time - and the lid would keep sinking until it reached some critical point.
I think the global economic impact of Peak Oil....now very much underway..combined with the effects of climate change - also obviously underway and accumulating rapidly...will push us to that critical point in the not-distant future.
But people won't actually BELIEVE we're there.....until some time after we have actually arrived and they can't deny it any longer. How long that may take is anyone's guess.
Ignorance is a powerful insulator from reality. You literally don't know it when you see it.
China and other Asian economies are rubbing their hands with glee at our idiotic " minimun wage " policy ....... That is exporting jobs !
And it is preventing our own youth from getting a start in employment . .
.... We are shooting ourselves in the foot , and smarter governments know it .
........ Scrap the stupid minimum wage , and watch the unemployment rate plunge !
Gummy Bear: Not sure what planet you live on, but if wages were lower than the current minimum you would see two results:
1. Our larger cities would be empty of low-wage workers as no one could afford to live in them....have you looked at rents, food, transport & medical costs? Do some math, please. Or they would be surrounded by slums like those in some of the more desperate and gruesome parts of the world. Thinking of a favella around Rio: Full of crime and always at risk of disease. Generally lawless. Instituting grinding, hopeless poverty won't be saving NZ's economy. I'm surpised you think it might.
2. People would refuse to work that money. I have two kids. They have made it clear they have no interest in low wage jobs and simply refuse to take them. They would rather do volunteer work for free for somethign they actually care about than put up with the onerous employment contracts and poor management that appear to be the norm in many, many small businesses and retail chains. Or they will go to Australia. Whatever, they refuse to go begging for a pittance in their own country.
I strongly recommend you read some of those employment contracts and try living on the $12.75 / hour a lot of people get these days before putting even worse conditions and wages forward as a solution to any gap in propserity.
The minimum wage causes employers to not hire extra staff , when they would otherwise take someone on . And as the majority of employers in NZ are small enterprises , it negatively impacts them the most .
......... Why are you comparing NZ to some of the " more desperate gruesome " parts of the world ?
No minimum wage works nicely , elsewhere , why not here !
I know Brash, Kerr and Feudalists at the Round table want the minimum wage dropped but I think it will lead to a downward wage spiral for the most vulnerable, non unionised etc. Sure bring in a youth rate or for those in a defined training programme but the argument that no or low min wage will l lead to higher levels of employment just doesn't hold up - will the supermarket shelves stack themselves if the min wage was $15? Also makes it difficult to get folk off welfare.
What does tend to happen in a low wage economy is productivity per worker falls - seen how they build roads in India? The workers are sucssesfuly competing with heavy machinery - you can do that on $2/day.
The minimum wage is just one of many imposts forced upon businesses by the government . ACC is another . Added together , these regulations act as a handbrake upon innovation , employment , and profits .....
.... The minimum wage adds to unemployment .
Since when does the government know what employers and employees really need ? ...........Who in parliament has actually run a business , and been a boss ?
Bollocks floating meme...a single person can get by on $15000pa net....if they rent a room for 80 a week and go without the buzzbox car and other crap they don't need. Say $290 a week all up. That leaves a good $200 to save from the 40 hours at $12.75.
The problems start when teens want it all as soon as they leave school.
Right...no future..$12.75x 40 hours( not too many for the little dears is it Floating Meme?) =$510
Col...$15000 per year. That's rent $80 for a room...$4160.....leaves well over $10ooo for food bus train clothing makeup whatever....deduct from minimum wage total $26520....you are left with well over ten thousand dollars.....and you reckon there's no future in it.....you are the one who needs to think. Oh did I not take off the tax....peanuts isn't it!
While I agree your reasoning, I am surprised at it given your general comments on this site.
I take from your post above the reference to the unemployed, and in particular the "unwilling".
If related this to your quite correct highlighting of the way we are being fleeced by the bankers, while the pollies sit back an do nothing.
Is it really any surprise that some are unwilling to participate?
When my sons were young I ensured they participated in "team sports" rather than individual sports. They weren't star athletes but they learnt from it. Then they both worked on a milk truck for two years (when milk was home-delivered), grinding hard work, 4 hours per night 5 nights per week. They learnt that hard work didn't hurt them. The youngest one with a double degree couldnt get work for a year after graduating. Finally got a job in a metalwork factory "standing" on concrete, at a lathe for 12 hours a day, spitting out metal widgets. Had to give up after developing varicose veins. Now has a job in his chosen profession, joining a team of 10 professionals. The company has downsized frequently. He is now a team of one, in the same company. The grinding previous experiences have stood hime in good stead.
"Good stead"? What a miserable sounding career experience - particular for someone with a university degree. Obviously gone are the days when you enter the workforce as a new graduate, full of confidence and promise and over time work you're way up in both responsibility and experience.
A professional in a team of one? Sometimes it pays not to be the last one to turn out the lights.
He's not complaining. IT, Multi-National US company, many 1000s employees, highly valued skills, highly regarded within the company. Wouldnt mind his salary either. Was trying to convey the concept that his determination and perserverance under trying conditions (learned elsewhere) enabled the company to eleminate the candy-floss and retain somone who was good value.
But Nicholas the Floating Meme concept of starting has the teenager already at the end of the race...no hard graft can be tolerated...it's the socialist way...regardless of merit they must get the same pay...the reason is simple and easy to say..."minimum pay buys a vote on election day"
Ahhh.. I see. So when the boss came over to me and said " Take these spoons over to that open vat of boiling acid, and drop them in ..carefully, like...and try not to spash the stuff all over yourself!" I should have said " Errr... no thanks. Im waiting to be an investment banker". There's nothing like seeing what life 'could be like', to make get off your butt and make it what you 'want it to be like'....
And why bother when you have the socialists promising to raise the minimum pay...higher always higher. All they want is your vote.
Want some money to pay the rent?...here have some...it's free
Want some for painting pictures and arting around..no worries have some more...it's free
Want some for having more sprogs...no worries have all you want...it's free
Don't feel like moving town to get work..hey that's great..here have some more free money
At winz we aim to please...you all come back now you hear!
.... and as the scoundrel Harris gang in Chch proved , WINZ will even give you the munny to get 4 new tyres on your BMW ........ it's only munny , so it's free ............
......... blow your face off , when your P-Lab explodes , here's $ 1 million of plastic surgery to fix you up , poor dear ( that was from the Helen Clark era ! ) ...
.... all free . All fixed . Everyone happy ? ....... You betcha we are !
Well, the minimum wage is a whole lot less in the States - and if you're lucky you can squat in some abandoned building next door to your workplace - and then there's the fast food outlet down the road who throws away all the perfectly good food waste - and you don't need insurance given 80% of the population there lives without it anyway - and if you get sick, well the Emergency Room has to take you, no questions asked. But then whatever they spend on you will be garnered from your minimum wages, but heck, living a gruelling existence is a sort of 'badge of honour' - and no doubt when you save up enough to buy yourself the bus fare to Wall Street for that interview - well, provided you don't get mugged in one of the public toilets on the way.... who knows, you too could become a millionaire.
I mean, the US is and always has been the real land of opportunity for the impoverished classes.
Forget working on the NZ minimum wage - head over to the US where you can really prove how hard working for low wages committed you really are.
As an uncouth youth , I had the right to do those menial tasks , I got a start , and worked my way up .....
.... It is utter selfishness to deny the youngsters of NZ the chance to get that same start ....... The minimum wage destroys their chances ...... Lunacy to keep it , yet to wizzle about youth unemployment , and about our jobs leaking to China .
Okay, so your first job with the company was as a janitor. Did you spend all your working life with that one company? And what was your title when you finished up?
The reason I ask is that, indeed my husband's father started with his one and only employer before WWII as the janitor/mail clerk/general hand - went to war - returned to the same company and some 50 years later at age 65 retired as a senior executive (National Sales/Engineering Manager). Wouldn't happen these days - most companies don't last that long without being taken over/downsized/going broke etc. for starters. (Indeed his is long gone nowadays). And tertiary qualifications would be needed for the engineering works (which he never got/had). So perhaps the analogy of starting as the janitor and moving up through the ranks just doesn't hold water anymore.
Beginning paid employment ( initially part-time ) whilst at primary school ( age 12 ) , I had a vast array of jobs and employers , and was free to negotiate my pay rate with each one . If I got no satisfaction from a boss , I stated my case as clearly as I could , and moved on .
I never wanted the boredom of a lifelong employer , that my well meaning parents wished for me , as they ushered me into a career with the NZPO . ...... And in hindsight , I'm glad I did it my way ( thankyou Mr Sinatra ) .
........ But what utter selfish fools in parliament have enacted legislation , to force employers to pay wages above what they can afford , or above what a youth may want ........ And all those amazing experiences I had , many of them are not available to Kiwi youngsters today .
So your real first job as a school leaver was with NZPO. And you weren't mowing lawns and dusting coffee tables I take it. Let me guess.... you were hired as a clerk. And I'm sure you worked very, very hard - prepared to do just anything they wanted you to... even take out the garbage if that was what was required. Though the pay was s#it.
And fancy, after all that devotion in that low paid job - you chose not to hang around long enough to make MD. But then, maybe you were one of the lucky ones to get one of those big redundancy payouts (might have been able to start up your own business with it) when indeed such generous redundancy provisions existed.
And there's another one of those career events that just doesn't work like that these days.
GBH - an example of "wages by decree". When the AU Labour party achieved power in 2007 the first thing they did was undo the previous regime's "workplaces industrial law" and commanded that all jobs must be paid a minimum of 3 hours wages per day. And half a million school kids lost their after-school part-time jobs working from 4:00pm-6:00pm
FM/Kate - anyone can be anything they want to be - if they want it enough. And therein lies part of the problem for people today. Kids are raised to have an expectation of entitlement rather than using hard graft to get where they want. Some young people have a sense of superiority - 'I have a Uni degree, so I am worth more' - in some cases that is utter BS.
At the endof the day life isn't about money - it is about being happy/content. It can take some a very long time to realise that wealth doesn't always make you happy.
Yeap theymust now wake up that there will be no export lead recovery when xrate is so high and they need to start looking at new controls around this (many have been discussed before on this website), we are now heading into our busy season in regards to exporting and the dollar is sky high.
There are a lot othings to be afraid of right now:
1. Peak oil and it's ongoing, immutably corrosive effect on any recovery....as each year the amount of oil available is that wee bit less than last year. The consequences of this will accumulate over time as growing population pushes demand upward even as the ability to supply heads ever downward. This is only just starting...and won't stop. (We now know from the IEA that Peak Oil from conventional sources occurred in 2005-6).
2. Climate change + population growth. This is causing food supply problems already. The cost of rice is going up rapidly. People aren't hungry yet, but they are seeing hteir incomes eroded hugely in many places.
3. Sovereign debt. The problem of debt has still not been dealt with. They threw money at it to make hide unthe bed for a while. It's just getting bigger.
4. The NZ$. If our currency goes down, our debt overseas becomes more expensive....and I doubt we can sell enough stuff to make up the difference quickly enough. Sales are variable...the interest rate on the debts are largely fixed, multiplied by the effects of any downward move in the NZ$.
There is more than enough here to be terrified about. Collectively, over the next 50 years, they add up to the end of our civilisation as we know it. But like frogs in a pot....we can't feel it yet....so it ain't happening.
FM - absolutely agree with you on that list. What people need to think about is what the global Govts response to these issues will be (sovereign debt will be more money printing), what does it mean for inflation, and what does it mean for interest rates. I suspect Roger Kerr will be right, not necessarily this year, but within 12 -18 months
The game is played out..The riots in Greece ireland Spain Britain Albania Egypt etc. etc. ect. are but the begining of a Debt review,If you cant maintain Civil order because you cant pay the people enough to make a life worth living,,then its not rocket science to see that you dont stand any hope of getting your loans paid off. These riots are just the "Starters" of a very long meal.
I belive that NZ is the only commodity exporter in the world that is unable to produce one single positive economic reading in the midle of the largest commodity rally in history. I live in a commodity exporting country -not Australia- Our Stock Mkt is booming, our currency is strong, inflation tends to creep up but OCR keeps it in check and every economy reading points to further gains and stengthening of the country. For me it is totaly imposible to get a grip on what are the problems in the NZ economy, no matter how you try to spin it the only posible explanation is poor management and poor judgement of those in charge.
In comparison to other commodity exporters (think dirt-digger-truck-ship) our costs of production are high so there is not enough profit flowing into the rest of the economy. In the meantime the high NZD is hollowing out our non-commodity export sector. Sad isn't it.
That's interesting, and surprising from my perspective at least. I guess it must depend on the industry but in ours at least (software development), there has been a very noticeable increase in offers and phone calls from recruitement companies wanting to know if we are looking for something and if we can start right away compared with 18 months ago. In fact, the demand doesn't even compare.
My cousin's wife in Wellington has been looking for a new job in a different area (business management/consulting) for just two weeks and she's already had plenty of interest, numerous interviews and offers (like us, 6-figure-salaries kind of job).
Software definitely hotting up.
My son got wouldn't tell me what his latest salary increase was, but said he's on top tax rate now and he told me what he was on last year and it's a minimum $30,000 extra this year.
He quotes Michael Cullen and says he's now a rich p.....
"He quotes Michael Cullen and says he's now a rich p....." lol
Yep. Software was hardly a passion of mine and I'd rather have done other things but it pays to think twice about the future job prospects in any given career, and to get advice from parents/older friends. I haven't regretted following that advice...and I still get to do what I actually wanted to do anyway :)
Definition of 'Recovery' as used by NZ bank economists:
Noun: all the time that passes between when a recession is first acknowledged until substantial growth starts occuring again.
Synonym: Recession
NB: The synonym 'Recession' can easily be interchanged in any bank economist speak without altering the meaning at all! For a full dose of realism use your word editor's replace function.
not surprising at all
note the property / economy spruiking economists at BNZ and westpac were again very wrong - further undermining their eroding credibility
The credible ASB and ANZ were very accurate
Key came out with a load of rubbish spin following the announcement. I'm starting to lose faith in this guy!
All of this does not bode well for property
I remember Helen Clarks idea that we need to move towards becoming a knowledge based economy.. which was in line with the other great notions they were trumpeting ie benefits of globalisation (exporting blue collar jobs) and the trickle down theory (yeah right).
But they never pushed for a massive increase in knowledge based industries to require these jobs! Unless you consider the RMA which guarantees landscape architect students a great job of shuffling paper around a local council somewhere making sure people have their tussocks clumped in natural groupings.
They just took the easy way out and pumped up the uni incentives and now we find there are thousands of grads that have no hope of getting a job here that utilises thier specific skill set. So either they get a low paying retail job here, or they continue studying until they have a Masters/PhD and then can finally get one of the very few jobs in their field in this country, or they move to aussie and get a job with their degree.
Although I believe eduction is very important.. but would be nice if they'd directed it into industries that we can already build on and improve.
Something for those who are calling for a lower dollar to reflect on - The highest dairy payouts have occurred when the dollar has been strong against the USD. Current predicted Fonterra payout will potentially be the 2nd highest payout - and we have a high USD cross rate.
I have empathy for exporters for whom a high dollar makes it difficult.
Fonterra is still only part of our export economy, and high dairy payouts haven't prevented us from slipping back into recession. Fact of the matter is that agricultural commodities (however vital to our economy they may be) are still low tech/low value and, given our high production costs, do not generate enough profit that flows through to the greater economy. Furthermore it is well known that commodities follow boom-bust cycles. Although they may be booming at the moment an eventual bust is inevitable. Given the current oil price trend this could happen sooner rather than later. The risk of course is that when a slump in commodities does come, the high NZD will have ensured that our non-commodity export sector will be in such bad shape it won't be able to take up the slack.
So Goff wants to grow the economy.....he misses to do that we need to use more cheap energy.....its $90USD and rising and that isnt cheap......No one in OPEC wants the price down much even if they could pump [substantially] more to do so....so in the $80USD to 90USD range we and the world will hobble along....If we see $100USD We will ali see recession....if other things dont catch us first...sure then it could be $50USD a barrel again as the world's economy nose dives.....no one will be buying our stuff though....
Treasury says we paseed the max (7%) Unemployed....another nail in their coffin....I think it will go past 7% again this year........in Wgtn alone Im seeing Govn agencies re-organising and letting ppl I know go....I would be surprised if movement to OZ increases.
OCR up in 2011, no, I think the odds are bigger it will be dropped myself.
regards
National walked into office believing in tinkering and tweaking and in hope that the GFC banking fed generated scam would soon be history and NZ would feel the warmth of a rising world economy...blah blah blah.
Now after 2 years of lying they discover they are two years behind the curve...borrowing $50 million a day just to pay the bills...telling lies about shrinking the fiscal hole...pretending we are somehow different to the other piigs...!
I have no doubt the socialist idiots would have made an even greater bloody mess of the last two years....but that does not excuse National's poor decision making....if indeed it is decision making....you see I think Cabinet really are getting their instructions from the aussie banks....the govt and the RBNZ are just the shop front windows with 'displays' for the public to gork at.
Was it Bollard or the banks that came up with the covered bond scam to supply cheaper credit for longer to pork the bubbles?
Is unemployment 6.8 or 8.6?
Is govt revenue falling because people are saving more or because people have less to spend because they have to feed the banks?
Why is govt policy still ensuring landlords and PIs get to enjoy taxpayer funded benefits?
John Key is downplaying the jobless rise in comments reported widely from Auckland
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=107…
Key pointed out the headline unemployment measure was notoriously volatile while acknowledging that the second half of last year was tough as international turmoil stemming from the European debt crises sapped confidence among employers in New Zealand.
"Again we come up to 2011 with confidence looking more perky again, and you've got to remember unemployment's a lagging indicator, not a leading indicator, so typically it tells you what has happened, not what's happening in the future.
"What we see is a lot more energy from the New Zealand corporate sector, we see them looking to employ more people, we're seeing an increasing number of jobs being advertised, we're seeing a reduction of people on the unemployment benefit from the high over Christmas. I think we shouldn't lose confidence ...
It's the same old spin Bernard...always the lagging indicators not to be looked at and the need to wear the rose tinted specs and to be positive and be not to lose confidence...blah blah blah. "Meanwhile our main job is to protect the banks as they feast on the wealth of the country because without the banks supplying the cheap and easy credit....gosh the economy would be toast. Let's hear it for the banks." JK's unspoken comment.
This is typical government trying to talk there way out of the hole. Bollard put the OCR up too early at the first sign of any recovery and now it has kicked them in the face. OCR will need to drop, people, companies are struggling, and the government needs to look at tools to control the xrate, it is choking the country, if we sit back and just say well we are part of the international community we have to ride it out we will be left in last place.
It's election year, the year of the spin doctors.
Hold you call there FCM...if the Kiwi$ were to fall, imported fuel would shoot higher and you ought to know what that would lead to....as well we are already seeing the first indications of the inflation to come...even with the high rate v the US$ we are being hit by higher import costs and the unions, especially the state sector unions, will be pushing for income adjustments this year...Bollard will be more likely to raise the rate.
We are a good deal better off at 80us than 60us!
"Council of Trade Unions secretary Peter Conway said unemployment appeared to be stuck at a high rate and the Government needed to act to create jobs."herald
Peter Conway has a good job hasn't he...it's funded by taking money from workers pay!....wonder how much he takes.
No the NZd-US needs to be at around 65-68 level, 80 will kill off hundreds more jobs, we export and price is based at USD less revenue, less tax..agree it is a balancing act and we can not afford it to go down to 50-60 range but where it is now it is hurting a huge number of company's as well as tourism...as for imports..,the big cost will be fuel,but have a feeling we are going to have to live with high fuel/ energy costs from now on.
FCM.....why should I have to pay far more for my diesel and for every other thing I need that has a fuel plus gst input cost added to it...just so that an export business can proudly claim to have 'earned' fatter profits in NZ$?
If the Kiwi$ were at parity with the us$...our production costs would be a dam sight lower. Our col would be lower. Govt would be able to trim back the benefit bungles. That would mean a closing of the fiscal hole. Hell it might even help lead to a fiscal surplus and that would bring lower taxes meaning households would have more to spend or invest...and that would create more employment...countering the loss of jobs which so worries you...jobs that are currently dependent on the 'subsidy' factor from households.
What you need to find out FCM...is by how much everyday food and col prices are hiked with every cent lower the Kiwi falls v the us$.....go suss that out!
I`m all for Wolly dreaming.We humans need to dream,and while we have no control over what others /countries or people do that affects us,then dreaming is surely a positive thing to do.
JK and his acolytes surely were dreaming when they announced a push to being on an even footing with Aus,Bill English and Allen Bollard were surely dreaming when they endeavoured to talk down our cross rate with the US$.
Perhaps it will take a money trader to have a fightening dream and wake up saying"sell"NZ$ for the economists "wisdom" to happen.
Did you hear Paula Bennetts comments Wolly? Even more moronic!
"Obviously this means that there are more people unemployed than we have jobs for" TVNZ
or,
''No-one wants to see a jump in unemployment. And I think that we have got to put it in perspective - where it's 7.1 per cent in December last year and now it's 6.8...We'd sort of see it as an evening out now.''
or,
''see that there are people out there looking for jobs and are unable to find them right now. I mean it is bump coming out of such a recession as we did.''
Just read this utter load of BS on Stuff from Key,
"The Rugby World Cup is just one of a number of factors this year that represents a real opportunity for New Zealanders to be in to work and to prosper and it's important that we maximise that opportunity.''
He now thinks a majority state funded ONE OFF is going to save us!
Anyone wanna throw out a theory as to why Tourism Holdings is such a serial underperformer on the NZX . Their share price collapsed a full 20 % yesterday on the back of a profit warning reversal .... yet again they have come up short , this time with a net year loss , instead of a profit ...... no final end of year dividend to long suffering stock-holders .
......... Remind me , tourism is one of NZ's star performers , along with dairy-farming , earning screeds of dosh to assist us in our mortgages and house trading ............
So why the feck is THL is such a dog of the NZX ........ Short of actually doing the Feltex flip , and going belly up , Tourism Holdings is a crappy company .....
.......Why ?
[ should've posted this under the Top 10 , apologisticallies for cocking up , GBH ]
I'll take a shot at that Gummy. The company barks like a dog because:-
1. It has the wrong business plan.
2. That was dreamt up and implemented by an incompetent board.
3. And is managed by equally incompetent senior and middle management.
I'm just amazed that a company like this is not making money. As you rightly point out, tourism is one of NZ’s big earners. This company should be rolling in it, the fact that it isn't tells you a hell of a lot about its incompetence. Is it the worst performer on the NZX, it must be getting pretty close. A couple of years ago the Aussies launched a takeover bid for the company at $2.80 a share! Can you believe that and the board issued a don't sell notice to shareholders! And look at the damage they have done. What’s the price now, 48c?
I was gobsmacked a couple of years ago when I read in the paper that management had sold off most of THL's NZ Tourism operations e.g., Kelly Tarltons, and companies like that because it didn't fit in with the strategic direction of the company! HELLO!!!! It’s a Tourism Holding Company!!!!!!!! Losers!
The Chairman and the CEO should fall on their swords and resign immediately. But this is NZ, so we know that's not going to happen. More likely they’ll get a bonus. In the States, they’d get their arses sued.
Don't know about THL however many in the know from the outset never bought into Feltex.
Tourism is a star performer? Well it is an industry with some key factors to consider, the numbers of tourists is holding up but they are spending less, also you have to appreciate the lack of market depth.
An example, Queenstown, its key profit driver is Australians from Victoria visiting for the winter school holidays, a few weeks a year decide if it is a good or bad year.
High risk with what level of return? Queenstown is also good to hear the goss about well know people who invested and what becomes of them.
"Statistical Bullshit(usa)
The unemployment rate (based on the household survey), unexpectedly fell from 9.4% to 9.0%. How did that happen?
Based on population growth, the labor force should have been expanding over the course of a year by about 125,000 workers a month, a total of 1.5 million workers. Instead, (for the entire year) the BLS reports that the civilian labor force fell by 167,000. Those not in the labor force rose by 2,094,000. In January alone, a whopping 319,000 people dropped out of the workforce.
To get the unemployment rate down from 9.8% to 9.0%, you simply do not count two million workers. Look on the bright side, at this rate we will be back to full employment in no time."
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article26096.html
BS like that just wouldn't be allowed in NZ..we are different!
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