Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news the chaos at the Kabul airport has cast a pall over markets today.
But elsewhere, positive economic news is generally being reported however. And Powell's Jackson Hole speech is close now.
Actual US jobless claims fell again last week to under +300,000, the first time it has been below that level since the start of the pandemic. (Seasonally-adjusted it is being reported as +353,000, an unchanged level.) That takes the actual number of people on these claims to just under 2.8 mln, also the lowest since the start of the pandemic.
The US also reported its second estimate of Q2 GDP and this has been revised higher to a +6.6% pa rate, and a slight rise above the initial estimate of +6.5%. The final Q1 rise was +6.3% pa. Estimates vary for what Q3 will bring, but most see a +7% pa rise.
The latest regional Fed factory survey, this one from the Kansas City Fed, shows a solid expansion continuing in that district. Just like the other surveys, price movements remain very elevated with this one reporting that "prices received" rose to a survey high in August. However, at the same time, 20% of these firms noted that activity was falling away due to the impact of delta Covid.
There was another large US Treasury bond tender overnight, this one for their 7 year Note, and bringing higher yields. US$145 mln was bid for the US$60 mln on offer (the Fed took an additional US$8 bln and slightly more than last time). The median yield this time was 1.10% pa, up from 0.99% last time.
The South Korean central bank raised its policy rate yesterday by +0.25%, the first Asian central bank to do so, and in fact the first central bank of any developed economy to do so since the start of the pandemic. Their new rate is 0.75%. A "sound recovery" and rising inflation were the prompts there. They are also concerned about fast-rising consumer debt levels there.
Hong Kong reported strong export growth for July. While the rise above July 2020 was always going to show a good result, in fact the rise above July 2019 was equally impressive. Buyer wariness about getting goods during the global shipping woes is drawing activity forward so these high levels may not be all they seem.
But while there may be a sense that the Baltic Dry Index is topping out, as a measure of the cost of ships for the bulk trade, there is certainly no relief on the cost of container freight. The cost of container freight out of China rose another +4% just last week. The only softness is being seen in trans-Atlantic rates. Unless you are now prepared to spend more than NZ$14,000 per container trip, you are unlikely to find a shipping line willing to take your order. For popular routes like Shanghai to Los Angeles, it is more like NZ$16,500/one-way trip. Bidding wars are underway in this frenzy.
And now there are reports that the Chinese authorities are concerned about these huge distortions and seeing what they can do at their end to alleviate the problem, one that could well squash their export trade.
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German consumer sentiment is no longer improving, according to a widely-watched survey. German spending impulses fell and their saving impulses rose as concerns over the impact of the delta strain widens.
In Australia, the economic news is mainly around NSW's surrender to delta COVID. But its citizens seem wary of the opening up plans despite record infection rates, so the economic boost they are seeking may end up being quite limp.
There were another 1029 new community cases in NSW yesterday with another 844 not assigned to known clusters, so they are completely out of control. They now have 13,101 locally acquired cases all in their leaky pseudo lockdown. Their policymakers have surrendered after making a poor effort. Victoria is reporting another 80 new cases yesterday, so it is still bad there too and their lockdown is extended, also with a curfew. Queensland is now reporting two new cases. It has instituted a two week ban on interstate arrivals, throwing many things into confusion, including scheduled sports. ACT has 14 new cases. Overall in Australia, more than 32% of eligible Aussies are fully vaccinated, plus 22% have now had one shot so far.
Wall Street has opened their Thursday session with a -0.3% retreat for the S&P500 and giving up the prior day's gain. The Kabul airport suicide bombing attack is casting a pall over markets. Earlier, European markets were all lower, down about -0.3% across the board. Yesterday, Tokyo ended yesterday up a minor +0.1%, but Hong Kong was down -1.1% at their close and Shanghai posted a +similar -1.1% fall for the day. The ASX200 fell -0.5% yesterday, and the NZX50 Capital Index fell -0.9% with a late sell-off.
The UST 10yr yield is little-changed at 1.34% and holding its recent rise. The US 2-10 rate curve is unchanged at +110 bps. Their 1-5 curve is also little-changed at +77 bps, and their 3m-10 year curve is holding at +131 bps. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate starts today at 1.20% and unchanged. The China Govt ten year bond is at 2.89% and up +2 bps. And the New Zealand Govt ten year is now at 1.67% and also unchanged.
The price of gold is little-changed today, up +US$3/oz from this time yesterday, and now at US$1792/oz.
Oil prices have slipped slightly by about -50 USc, so in the US they are now just under US$68/bbl, while the international Brent price is just over US$70.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar opens today slightly softer at 69.5 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are marginally firmer at 95.9 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 59.1 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today fractionally softer at 72.8 and in the middle of the 72-74 range of the past ten months.
The bitcoin price has fallen -3.9% from this time yesterday to US$47,041 and it is actually now at its lowest point in more than a week. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been highish at just over +/- 3.2%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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81 Comments
"Their policymakers have surrendered after making a poor effort."
I'll wait until our own Indian Delta cases are eliminated to judge their effort. Although I'm very much looking forward to the announcements about easing lockdowns for non-infected areas.
Regarding the shortage of box ships it takes 2 to 3 years to build a 20,000 TEU box ship. The shipping issue will be around for a little while longer unless we stop buying junk from China.
Below are the daily case numbers in Sydney prior to lockdown announcement that finally came 10 days after first cases on 26th June.
The Premier gambled and lost - both the economy and public health. They now have over 1000 cases per day and growing. That's a "poor effort".
Wed Jun 16 .. 2
Thu Jun 17 .. 2
Fri Jun 18 .. 2
Sat Jun 19 .. 2
Sun Jun 20 .. 2
Mon Jun 21 .. 5
Tue Jun 22 .. 10
Wed Jun 23 .. 18
Thu Jun 24 .. 11
Fri Jun 25 .. 29
Sat Jun 26 .. 30
The flip side to that question is how many small businesses would go under without lockdowns due to staff being sick/isolating and reduced demand due to other people being sick/isolating? And there'd be no subsidies then.
The UK is having supply problems in part due to that (and from brexit....) with empty shelves due to a lack of drivers and staff at supermarkets. We're alreadt seeing supermarkets closing due to a lack of staff...
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/aug/26/uk-economic-recovery-s…
Even 26th of June was a piss poor lockdown.. https://www.nsw.gov.au/media-releases/covid-19-restrictions-extended-nsw
100 people at a funeral, limit of 5 visitors etc..
... one of the bonuses of being sent back to work ( the Gummster is an "essential worker" they say .... wrong on both counts , nevertheless ...) ... a bonus of being at work is no morbid temptation to tune into the 1 p.m. sermon from the Pulpit of Struth ...
Is it just me , or are these wind bags really congratulating themselves , even though they've cocked up so much & so badly , they can't answer many questions , and Queen Jacinda keeps talking down to us as if we're errant 4 year olds ... wash your hands , kiddies ... lots of soap ... be kind ...
Supermarket yesterday. Quite disturbed by the downcast atmosphere, shoppers & staff, compared to the same scenario last long lockdown here. Yet Christchurch has had to face a mere pittance of what Auckland has had to endure lockdown wise. The morale of our nation is being steadily sapped. Comparison to those nations much worse off is wearing thin. It is from a negative viewpoint. Nobody knows what is going to happen next. Their business, employment, family financials attached. This lockdown may work but when will the “very tricky” Mr Delta cause the next one. The government must address this uncertainty. We get daily the “good news” about improved vaccination rates. So where exactly is that taking us. What is the target and what exactly happens when that is reached. What is the plan to follow. People are needing to see a pathway. The nation cannot continue lurching from elimination to lockdown, back and forth. The government has had a very long time to think about all of this. They need to provide the people pronto some substance and certainty. The status quo is taking its toll. Even the Prime Minister is looking wan.
... a week or so ago Melbourne ticked over 200 lockdoom days since the pandemic began ...
OMG ! ... is that our future too ? .... there has to be a better way ...
... but wait ... there is ... supply vaccinations , a surplus of them .... from multiple sources .... hmmm.... will you tell the Queen , or shall I ?
We are getting close to 2% of our population per day being vaccinated at the moment. We are probably maxing out how fast we can vaccinate now...
Hopefully vaccine supplies keep up, if they do and we keep vaccinating at this rate, we will be ~75% in a month and not long after up to 90%. If we can hit that rate quickly, there will be very different conversations to be had...
For the same reason they're not open until 10pm all over the country......... THE SUPPLY OF VACCINE DOSES IS LIMITED. That is our bottleneck. We are small and relatively insignificant. Japan's vaccination programme got off to a very slow start, and they were behind us for some time. Now 43% of their population is fully vaccinated. Size and money counts to the likes of Pfizer.
If I was the script writer and had access to the info they do I could have a summary which takes 10 mins tops. (Which would include all the obvious answers and a statement of where there is uncertainty plus a summary of the cock ups where "we could have done better").
Then again it would sound nothing like a party political broadcast.
I find it abrasive too, but you've got to remember she's speaking to the whole country - half of whom have a below-average IQ. That's not a derogatory comment, it's fact. So yes, her language and style may appear simplistic to many of the scholars here on interest.co.nz.
THIS!
Remember people that have to communicate effectively (she does have a degree in communications remember) have to communicate with simple language. Everyone that trains people or creates training material quickly realises that they have to train for the lowest common denominator. The smart people (which is many on this forum except those that appear to have lost rational thought) will simply read the highlights and look up more info themselves.
I will repost from yesterday - it has nothing to do with intelligence. If it was...
The pedagogical evidence would suggest driveling on for 30-40 minutes is not helping anyone.
Clear and concise is the best method. 3-5 clear points is about the maximum most people can handle.
What do we need to actually know?
1. x cases for today, meaning we will stay in
2. Level y until z date
3. We review on w date.
4. Stay safe and be kind.She can then elaborate on more later for those who are interested.
Leading with "Good news" about how x people
got vaccinatedbooked a vaccination is just politicking.
Dont worry by the way the online schooling or lack of it and any adequate systems to deal with LDs, I would say 3 quarters of future generation will have below average IQ. Why MOE has not come out and adjusted the school holidays (knock the next two down to one week a piece) or extended the schooling year, one has to wonder.
They will do it. They just wont provide adequate warning to allow parents to plan anything.
Parents will get told after the fact, that oh, hey, those were the holidays. You can all get screwed. We could have given you warning to allow you to book/take some leave and spend it with your kids (who are causing chaos in the background while you work) but no. We waited until after to tell you, and now you have all suffered unnecessarily.
I'm really interested in how this will turn out for education too. My own experience with my children (at all three school levels) has been that the school has been really proactive in giving them a full organised school day online during lockdown. Obviously some schools are better than others though. I've found that it's more difficult for primary aged children who need more teacher interaction/guidance. However, I've been really impressed with my older children, especially in treating it like a school day, even around working parents.
Our 13 year old daughter is going ok, she goes to one of the best schools in Auckland. But even then I would say it's no better than 70% of what it would have been in person. And I am talking about a top school here.
There's also the alienation issues. My 14 year old nephew got severely depressed in the UK during the lockdowns, and he really went backwards academically.
I would like to see more discussion on these issues rather than the obsession we have with talking about the health and welfare of older people. Not saying that isn't somewhat merited, but it shouldn't be at the expense of talking about our young people.
You know, our future...
there are plenty of ships. most shipping lines parked them up at the beginning of covid then took advantage of it to increase loads and rates
maersk just announced a bumper profit
https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2021/08/06/maersk-reports-record-e…
In the second quarter of 2021, A.P. Moller - Maersk continued to deliver strong growth and profitability, with record-breaking performance marking the 12th quarter of successive year-on-year earnings progress.
Revenue grew 58 pct. to USD 14.2bn in Q2 and EBIT increased almost five times to USD 4.1bn. The net result came in at USD 3.7bn in the second quarter, bringing the net result for the first half of 2021 to USD 6.5bn. Return on invested capital (ROIC) is now at 23,7 pct. for the past 12 months
There has been many posts questioning our lockdown strategy.
Here we after 10 days looking like Covid has been contained to Auckland and Wellington, and the South Island and much of the North Island looking at not only being Covid free but the possibility of eased restrictions.
The reality is that without immediate strict Level 4 lockdown, 10 days later Covid would now be considerable in number and present throughout the country . . . and like NSW it would be a lost cause.
Here is to the South Island and much of the North Island having easing restrictions soon and Auckland and Wellington joining this in the near future.
agree a lot of anti labour people just taking the opportunity to jump up and down hosking must be in heaven at the moment ( i dont vote labour) but from watching NSW and queensland i would rather be in queensland shorter sharp lockdowns are a better control at this point in time than long drawn out restrictions.
i know small businesses will fail, but like all cycles new ones will emerge and replace them that is capitalism the strong survive in a downturn and new industries are created
I'm guessing the shipping supply-chain issues are more to do with port congestion due to Covid restrictions - overlay this with fact that Shipping were running at breakeven costs for decades and now see great opportunity to pull in big profits (which I don't blame them)
Building more ships may be an overshoot - though some big exporters/importers may want to run their own fleet.
Interesting the delays & the escalating price for sea freight has virtually halved in some regions the previous additional cost of airfreight. Advantages too for cash flow as product gets to destination and market in days rather than weeks. Covid out of China is having affect on the world in every quarter. Exaggeration of course, but not previously seen since Genghis Khan. Yes, yes he was not Chinese at the time but he was the seed for the Yuan dynasty that followed. Is that there then perhaps the inspiration and mission for the like named currency?
no one has ever invaded afganstan and been successful, the americans should have got out much much earlier it was always a lost cause that cost trillions and hundreds of lives of their young
now there will be an internal war and already you can see the superpowers lining up to support different sides
the chinese and the CIA head have both had meetings with the taliban leadership
... agree entirely ... but , having gone in there , the Americans ought to have stayed longer , at least 20 years longer ... it takes several generations to effect permanent change on an undemocratic country ... once again , they bailed ... but not because of the military ... political expediency back home , Joe Biden trying to appease voters in America ...
Wrong Gummy. It was mission drift extreme.
Immediately after 9/11 the USA rightly went into Afghanistan to root out ISIS. Which was done and dusted in a month although Bin Laden escaped over the border.
USA should not have been there more than two months.
The nation building thing was just a case of vast resources looking around for a story about a job to do. Mission drift extreme.
Tens of thousands of troops, locked inside embattled townships complete with KFC outlets, does not nation build.
And to combat ISIS the problem is not the hillbilly Taliban, it's Saudi who are the supporters.
That commentator is wrong, almost all of the time. Happens when you start from a skewed base-line.
The US learned nothing from Vietnam; the cultural no-comprende is as complete as ever. Biden's "Hunt you down and make you pay" hasn't moved on in 50 years. And you don't impose 'democracy' on people you are subjugating, or on people who live below a certain EROEI level; surplus energy is required to specialise, surplus energy is required for the level of cooperation required to do voting. Below a certain level, it becomes desperate competition and corruption is inevitable. There is also the Plato slave-doctor syndrome: others must be inferior, thus sub-human, thus don't count. Accounts for colonisation, racism, classism, opium wars, slavery.......neoliberal economics.......
Big statement PDK. And reading some of the others here there is an indication of just how complex and big the problem is.
To start with the Taliban have proven themselves to be nothing more than psychopathic savages quoting a twist form of the Koran to justify their hatred of people. Despite their claims to the contrary, even this time around they are showing they have not changed much. They have already proven that given the opportunity they will export terrorism. There is after all a prophecy around Islam going to war with the infidels, and winning!
So the question has to be what is the right answer? Peace at any cost won't be peace, but an asymmetric war that the west cannot win without occupying Afghanistan again. I suggest that there is some merit to Gummy Bear's comment above that it takes generations to change a culture. So how do we respond? A western occupation that forms a coalition government ruled by western nations, but with Afghani representation, enshrining democracy, outlawing warlords and weapons and restricting some religious freedoms? That will be very expensive, but will likely be cheaper than the alternative. What about Pakistan and Iran and the other Islamic nations in the region?
Hegemonic powers destroy (or replace with their own) the beliefs of overtaken cultures. Religion is the biggie - seems to the last one folk hang on to.
But hegemonic powers suck the resources from those they overtake, leaving the local no constructive/trading/energy-use options. Lately the demarcation between corporates (Halliburton, Shell) and governments (Halliburton/Afghanistan/Cheney) has been blurred; much taxpayer-debt-funded militarism is on corporate behalf. Any time the locals complain (Ken Saro-Wiwa, for instance) they get silenced (hung, in his case).
Resource depletion has been happening in the Middle East longer than anywhere; hence the edict about 'no interest-charging'; there simply isn't enough there to underwrite it physically (we don't get to discuss this because out own culture is fatally in thrall of the economic no-limits mantra).
Read Daughter of the Desert (Gertrude Bell) and Seven Pillars and Allenby - we are a long way down the resource-suck track. The telling point is that the hegemonic power pulled out - the second to do so within a lifetime. Actually, I'd suggest we will see two collapses (USSR, US) within one lifetime. Unprecedented. And the folk we left resource-less? They have no choice but to hope for a better life next time; the same thing the Church peddled to peasants for years, in our culture...... The Taliban are a result, not a cause.
But the Taliban will be the cause of more.. But yes I largely agree with you. The US especially are essentially notorious at this. Eisenhower did after all warn of the military industrial complex. But countries, especially the west need to decide what they want. Ongoing war will be expensive and with the MI complex concentrated largely in the US, most other countries will not be able to afford it, so the US could well see a lot of pressure to take a different approach. But in the end if the Taliban are allowed to exist as a significant power there will be no peace.
Today whole of Royal Navy or US Navy's CBG can be destroyed in bases with salvos from 4,500 kilometers away or in the ocean from ranges of 1,500 kilometers. The seat of the British, or any other, for that matter, Government could be destroyed with the accuracy and precision unmatched by anything in the history of human civilization and all this could be done without the use of nuclear weapons. Or with them, if it comes down to it. This is what keeps today the world in balance and at peace--inability of the combined West to match those capabilities. Link
Huh? They went there to root out al-Qaeda, who were responsible for 9/11, not ISIS.
Should they have left after 2 months, then waited for them to regroup and plan and execute another attack?
Almost every US military commanders and intelligence agency who have boots on the ground experience are saying this is a mistake. That by leaving you are creating another snake pit and you are betting that a snake won't jump out and bite you again. It's a poor bet, evidenced by them doing the same thing 50 years ago in the Russian proxy war in the same country, when they left previously without nation building.
Had they stayed for multiple generations, ensuring education for all, the old guard of corrupt, pathetic, unintelligent warlords would eventually have died out or lost supporters for their cause. Really the US should have got in the blue helmets and handed over to the UN to provide security and stability for the next 50 years or so until the old guard were dead and the educated were replacing them. Education is the key and they were just getting their first educated people into the workforce now, just as they leave. You can see the transformative effect education has in pretty much every country where it is brought in, be it China (Mao bought in standardised education in the 1950's, the 1980's saw massive changes as the educated started taking over the economy), Kenya (currently as their educated generations take over) and it's underway in Bangladesh right now (literacy rate jumping by over 100% in a the last 30 years). Education is the most powerful transformer of a society, plus has the added bonus of lowering population rates. In Afghanistan, they were just getting their first female university graduates of any sizeable number, who were doing things like computer programming - absolutely unheard of under Taliban who will almost certainly ban women in the workplace again. Already they have sent women home from the workplace as it is currently "unsafe" for them to be there.
Massive backwards step going on there as education will be tossed out for at least half of their population and the standards will go back to medieval.
but really -- who the F$$K wants to be a suicide bomber as your enemy frantically leaves teh country and you have won and taken over -- ?? Every quote talks about it happend quicker than expected -- but every quote says they expected it - DUH just did not plan for it MUPPETS
Undertones of impending civil war I would suggest. Death doesn’t matter. Power does. This seems to be the USA calling card. Libya, Syria and Iraq always on the brink. Way back should have just let Russia carry on, at least they then had a border that concerned them. Big irony is though out of that Bin Laden was empowered, and that ended up with the USA in Afghanistan instead of Russia.
A solid use case for Bitcoin in Afganistan.
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/bitcoin-financial-freedom-in-afghan…
Last time DC invited us to post some light relief. Taking a liberty. Read a Herald article about 1972 and reminded of the story about Keith Holyoake our departing PM at Westminster taking his final drink and then strutting out to the balcony & hurling cut crystal glass and ice down into the Thames. “ Old Kiwi tradition” he explained to the assembled baffled pin stripes. So thinking about tipple habits succeeding PMs, how about this. Marshall = dry fly sherry. Kirk = square gin. Rowling = snifter. Muldoon = on the rocks. Lange = bloody mary. Palmer = gimlet. Moore = DB Bitter. Bolger = Jim Beam. Shipley = milk stout. Clark = whiskey sour. Key = screwdriver. English = rusty nail. Adern = fluffy duck. Have a go.
Great idea.
My guess:
Auckland - pending Tuesday, but I'm picking extension to at least Friday 3rd September in L4
Wellington - L4 to next Friday 3rd (precaution)
Christchurch - L4 to next Friday 3rd (wastewater testing, precaution)
Rest of NZ - L3 from morning of Saturday 28th
Why don’t they just come out and say Auckland is going to be in level 4 for at least another month? I think it’s pretty obvious it is going to be in level 4 for weeks to come. The rest of the country will come out earlier but for Auckland I’d be very surprised if it is not in level 4 until at least the end of September.
Data from TomTom on traffic flow within different New Zealand cities post-lockdown (as compared to pre-lockdown levels):
https://ibb.co/VLJWhNQ
Commentary on this website comes mostly I would assume, from well educated caucasian males, who generally are quite financially secure.
It's not all that bad being in lockdown if you live in a well built, generous sized home with a garden. And don't have any household issues of depression, violence etc.
Quite a different thing if you live in poor, cramped housing, which might be overcrowded and with social issues.
I am not condoning people getting out of the house, and breaching lockdown conditions, but it's worth trying to understand why this could be happening.
I don't get your point. I am white and Male, and have had depression.
But I am doing ok financially and live in a nice enough house.
My point is people in my situation - who are financially comfortable and not in a crowded, or violent household - tut tutting people who are breaking lockdown rules without thinking about the circumstances behind that. And people in those circumstances could be brown, white, yellow, purple ...
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