Breakfast briefing: Economic transition confuses commodities

Fed minutes reveal transition stresses; US housing starts slip Canadian inflation rises; iron ore price tanks further; China moves harder on tech companies; UST 10yr 1.28%, oil down and gold up; NZ$1 = 68.9 USc; TWI-5 = 72.3

19th Aug 21, 7:28am by David Chaston

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news commodity prices are bifurcating in a transitioning mix of public policy signals.

The US Fed released the minutes of their last meeting earlier today and they now see their inflation target being hit. But they are debating the timing and mechanics of easing back their stimulus policies. Some want a speedy reset on the basis that continuing large bond purchases are inappropriate for where the US economy is now: stimulus does not address supply shortages and will just make inflation overshoot.

There was a modest US Treasury bond auction overnight for their 20 year paper. It was for US$30 bln of which the Fed took US$3 bln. The remainder attracted US$66 bln in bids at a resulting median yield of 1.78%. That is marginally lower than the prior equivalent event's 1.80% median yield a month ago.

Fund managers and other large investors are going short and looking for somewhere to park increasing amounts of ready cash reserves. The Fed's repo/reverse repo facilities are one place it is parked and these balances just reached US$1.115 tln, a new record (equivalent to 4.9% of US GDP and about the same of their M3 money supply).

US housing starts were expected to weaken in July, but they fell more than expected. However this was offset by a faster-than-expected rise in building permits for housing.

Perhaps related, American mortgage application levels fell last week, in turn because all the key mortgage interest rates terms rose.

Canadian inflation came in well above what was expected at 3.7%, pushed up in July by rents, homeowner operating costs and the cost of durables.

The iron ore price in China hasn't stopped falling sharply. It is now down a third in just five weeks in a very rapidly sinking situation, a crash that will test the big Aussie miners and likely wipe out much of the Australian trade surplus.

Not all mineral commodities are falling in price. Tin is still climbing and is up +68% on the start of the year to a new all-time record high. Aluminium is recording year-to-date gains of +27%.

And the Baltic Dry index hit a new recent high yesterday with a +5% daily jump. This index is up +160% since the start of the year.

Separately, China is effectively nationalising of their tech industry by taking a more direct hand in managing its internet-content companies. It is buying equity stakes, filling board seats and sending dedicated regulators to police content at firms more frequently.

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There were another 634 new community cases in NSW yesterday with another 475 not assigned to known clusters, so they are out of control. It has spread into regional NSW extensively. Victoria is reporting another 24 new cases yesterday, an unchanged number and their lockdown is extended for another two weeks, this time with a curfew. Queensland is reporting 4 new cases. NT has cases now. Overall in Australia, more than 27% of eligible Aussies are fully vaccinated, plus 22% have now had one shot so far.

Wall Street is wandering along in early afternoon trade with the S&P500 is down a minor -0.1% so far. Overnight European markets are generally lower led down by Paris' -0.7%. But Frankfurt is up +0.3%. There was a recovery in Asian markets with Tokyo up +0.6%, Hong Kong up +0.5% and Shanghai making back half of the prior day's loss with a +1.1% recovery. The ASX200 was down another -0.1% yesterday but the NZX50 Capital Index made back all of Tuesday's fall with a +0.7% recovery.

The UST 10yr yield starts today at 1.28% and up +3 bps. The US 2-10 rate curve has recovered +2 bps today to +106 bps. Their 1-5 curve is also steeper at +71 bps, and their 3m-10 year curve is also a little steeper at +125 bps. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate starts today at 1.15% and +3 bps higher. The China Govt ten year bond is at 2.87% and down a rather large -4 bps. The New Zealand Govt ten year is now at 1.69% and a +5 bps recovery.

The price of gold is up +US$4 from this time yesterday, and now at US$1790/oz.

Oil prices are -US$1 lower from this time yesterday, so in the US they are just under US$65.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is just over US$68/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar opens today lower again, down to 68.9 USc and its lowest since November 2020. Against the Australian dollar we are unchanged at 95.2 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 58.9 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today at 72.3, and down just -10 bps because most of the change has been via a rising greenback.

The bitcoin price has weakened slightly today and is now at US$45,860 and essentially unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.2%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ». And please note, there will be no video version today.

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Source: RBNZ

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115 Comments

by Audaxes | 19th Aug 21, 7:49am 1629316191

Fund managers and other large investors are going short and looking for somewhere to park increasing amounts of ready cash reserves. The Fed's repo/reverse repo facilities are one place it is parked and these balances just reached US$1.115 tln,

They seek a counterparty that offers pristine collateral in exchange for their cash.

So much so Treasury Bill investors were willing to accept a discount rate as low as 0.02%, well below the Fed's reverse repo 0.05% floor, at today's auction.

US banks seek the same - Link

by profile | 19th Aug 21, 8:11am 1629317502

Tova ratcheting up the fear on the box last night telling us delta is terrifying. What word is she going to use when something bad happens? Why does she want people to be terrified?

by mfd | 19th Aug 21, 8:16am 1629317789

The bad thing has already happened in other countries, perhaps she is learning from their experiences rather than waiting to repeat them ourselves?

Terrifying might be a bit much, but I can understand wanting to encourage the viewers to take this seriously, given the anti-lockdown protests which have already happened. If we half-arse it as a country we get stuck in limbo like NSW until the vaccines are rolled out.

by profile | 19th Aug 21, 8:51am 1629319888

Yes, terrifying might be a bit much.
'Acknowledging residual uncertainties, the available evidence suggests average global Infection Fatality Ratio of ~0.15%'
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/eci.13554

by mfd | 19th Aug 21, 8:53am 1629320016

Sounds like the right ballpark. So several thousand dead New Zealanders if it really let rip here - perhaps 5-10 years worth of road deaths. Or if we wait a few months until the majority are vaccinated we could get that down to the low hundreds perhaps.

I think that's worth a sharp lockdown, your mileage may differ.

by Rosenstein | 19th Aug 21, 10:10am 1629324652

Do we have stats of people dying prematurely from deferred treatment? I know we suck internationally for cancer outcomes. Any stats for suicide increases? Domestic violence? For every life saved from Covid what's the collateral to society? There is no cost/benefit done. There is just government edict based on curtailment of freedoms and Frankenstein economics. No work on improving our healthcare capacity. No lateral thinking for prophylactic care. Just a Pfizer hail Mary and the common man doing the grunt work to make up for systemic failure.

by mfd | 19th Aug 21, 10:19am 1629325143

For the most part no, not that I'm aware of. In my department we didn't defer any time-critical treatment but did defer patients who were unlikely to be harmed by the wait. We've cancelled no treatments this week as we moved to level 4. There are probably impacts earlier in the line from delayed diagnostics, though. No idea about suicide or domestic violence stats - have you seen any? I'm not sure they would be quantifiable in advance, certainly not when we locked down last year, due to lack of similar situations.

It'll be fascinating to see the studies down the track on what worked best. My belief is NZ has largely done a good job, but proper analysis in the fullness of time could change my mind. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

by Rosenstein | 19th Aug 21, 10:29am 1629325784

I am not complaining of the last 6 months of freedom. But the myopic 'vaccination alone will save us' line in the absence of buttressing our healthcare system and really looking into international approaches that flattened the curve are in my opinion 6 months of wasted time and will serve to put us in a position where we will have to take the road others have taken except months behind the world. We will be locked down and the rest of the world would have changed their expectations. Skegg is smoking crack if he thinks international elimination of Covid was possible. Go to Delhi Skegg. Try your scanning and social distancing there.

by profile | 19th Aug 21, 10:21am 1629325319

Let it rip - the median age of death is higher than average life expectancy so a lot more is going to rip in to you before covid gets a crack.
If only there was some alternatives to letting it rip or sitting around waiting to be vaccinated. Tova will be reporting on it tonight.
'Meta-analyses based on 18 randomized controlled treatment trials of ivermectin in COVID-19 have found large, statistically significant reductions in mortality, time to clinical recovery, and time to viral clearance. Furthermore, results from numerous controlled prophylaxis trials report significantly reduced risks of contracting COVID-19 with the regular use of ivermectin. Finally, the many examples of ivermectin distribution campaigns leading to rapid population-wide decreases in morbidity and mortality indicate that an oral agent effective in all phases of COVID-19 has been identified.'
https://journals.lww.com/americantherapeutics/Fulltext/2021/06000/Revie…

'There are many studies that indicate that the use of Hydroxychloroquine, Azithromycin is effective and front-line physicians are using the therapy where permissible'
https://www.ama-assn.org/system/files/2020-10/nov20-handbook-addendum.p…

by Big Jim | 19th Aug 21, 10:24am 1629325494

Shameful ... theres no money in ivermectin

by mfd | 19th Aug 21, 11:27am 1629329249

I don't know this area in detail but flicked through the first article - looks reasonably promising although I have heard that the Elgazzar study was found to be outright fraudulent. I guess the idea would be take ivermectin and a level 2-3 lockdown might be enough to keep R lower than 1. I'm not sure what the side effects of long term ivermectin are compared to the societal side effects of harsher lockdowns.

I'd hope and expect that the relevant bodies have looked into this, although I do note that the majority of studies are fairly small and many with imperfect design, mostly a few hundred patients vs the 43,000 involved in the original Pfizer vaccine study, who incidentally suffered zero serious side-effects.

by profile | 19th Aug 21, 12:02pm 1629331353

This site has more detail.
We seemed to hitched to a one trick Pzifer horse. Ivermectin has been around a long time so there is plenty of safety data.

'Elimination of COVID-19 is a race against viral evolution. No treatment, vaccine, or intervention is 100% available and effective for all current and future variants. All practical, effective, and safe means should be used. Those denying the efficacy of treatments share responsibility for the increased risk of COVID-19 becoming endemic; and the increased mortality, morbidity, and collateral damage.'
https://ivmmeta.com/

by TommyYank-old | 19th Aug 21, 12:25pm 1629332701

My sister's partner is a Health Scientist-has his own lab and has even worked with NASA getting his lab into space. Obviously no dummy. Picked up Covid. Went to Hospital in New Jersey and immediately asked for Remdesivir. Emergency Room Doctor said we could never give you that. Went back to his motel as he was from the West Coast. 4 days later had to call Ambulance and landed in different hospital.Denied the drug there as well. Only then did he call in a favour by calling "a big wig". 1 hour later a
new Doctor walks in his room and exclaims-Don't know how you know the Director of Health for New Jersey, but I'm your Doctor now and here is your prescription. 16 hrs later his symptoms were alleviated, he could breath fine, and he was discharged to shelter in place in his motel for another 4 days before strong enough to fly home. He said its a crime how many could be saved using this drug instead of going on the Ventilators. But he said must be given before the 10th day-beyond that its too late.https://health.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/pharma/role-of-remdesi…

by two otherguys | 19th Aug 21, 1:10pm 1629335451

An Alabama doctor watched patients reject the coronavirus vaccine. Now he’s refusing to treat them.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/08/18/alabama-doctor-unvacci… Alabama, where the nation’s lowest vaccination rate has helped push the state closer to a record number of hospitalizations, a physician has sent a clear message to his patients: Don’t come in for medical treatment if you are unvaccinated. Jason Valentine, a physician at Diagnostic and Medical Clinic Infirmary Health in Mobile, Ala., posted a photo on Facebook this week of him pointing to a sign taped to a door informing patients of his new policy coming Oct. 1.

by frazz | 19th Aug 21, 8:59am 1629320363

Profile have you been vaccinated or booked for one?

by Big Jim | 19th Aug 21, 8:29am 1629318558

MUST increase FEARRRRR ... at all costs
A fearful population is a compliant one

Now pray tell, after we hear from a breathless Simon Dallow about how dangerous the delta variant was proving in NSW with 632 new cases ....
ah
are these people dying? in icu? lying on the streets breathless?
Or are kids still trundling off to school as per normal ...?

Are our (mainly unvaccinated) live cases now in icu? or taking a dispirin in isolation?
is there any journalism left here?

by mfd | 19th Aug 21, 8:38am 1629319103

You're probably aware deaths lag cases by a couple of weeks, or at least that was the case with 'classic' covid and I assume delta is similar. Deaths are just starting to tick up, there are a few Aussies dying each day at the moment, about 60 in this outbreak so far

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/

You may also have noticed that ~600 is not a particularly big number in a population the size of NSW, but the trend is relentlessly upwards at the moment. If they don't get out of it one way or another it'll be thousands, tens of thousands a day and more like dozens to hundreds of deaths per day.

If we can lock down sufficiently strongly we can avoid that fate until vaccines are more widely distributed.

by Big Jim | 19th Aug 21, 8:45am 1629319504

"If they don't get out of it one way or another it'll be thousands, tens of thousands a day and more like dozens to hundreds of deaths per day."

You mean like (eg) Fiji? (pick any county you like)
Where deaths have just tapered off?

by mfd | 19th Aug 21, 8:57am 1629320245

Looks reasonably consistent with my estimates above - Fiji have had 400 deaths so far in the last couple of months and they're certainly not done yet. Lets say they end up around 600. Translating that to NZ's population is a little over 3000 dead.

Again, worthy of a serious and hopefully short lockdown in my book.

Translate Fiji's ~20 deaths a day to NSW's population and they would be losing ~200 people per day - the lockdown is helping to prevent that.

by Big Jim | 19th Aug 21, 9:17am 1629321479

medical facilities arent counting for much in your estimates...

So what is the plan beyond "Short lockdowns"?
More "short lockdowns"?

by mfd | 19th Aug 21, 9:24am 1629321864

Just rolling with your example. If you prefer, the US has had 641,000 covid deaths which would translate to nearly 10,000 NZ deaths. The UK 131,000 which would also translate to ~10,000.

Fiji may have worse medical facilities, but they also have a much younger population than us.

The plan beyond short lockdowns is vaccines for everyone who wants them and then opening up. Should be ~4 months and the wait will save thousands of lives.

by Halfway To Paradise | 19th Aug 21, 9:54am 1629323693

The vaccine rollout has been abysmal, the government needs to accept that plan b of opening up after country has beenvaccinated, and living with Covid is the only option. This has been recognised by other countries. This government is all about control and making it up as it goes along. A bit like every other policy they have.

by mfd | 19th Aug 21, 9:59am 1629323951

Isn't that plan A? Open up after vaccination? Doesn't really depend on how useless out rollout has been, that just affects the timing of the plan.

by Halfway To Paradise | 19th Aug 21, 10:02am 1629324140

I am not convinced, they speak with fork-tounge one minute they talk about partial opening of border and at the same time say if we get 1 case of Delta we will be in level 4 lockdown.

by blobbles | 19th Aug 21, 10:43am 1629326584

They are talking about partial border opening next year. That will be after we have very high vaccination rates. Of course that won't apply to the anti vaccer conspiracy theorists of course, but there's no telling them anything because they doubt everything and yet know everything with surety at the same time.

by Halfway To Paradise | 19th Aug 21, 11:06am 1629328005

They were talking about a trial opening for businesses from October this year.

by Halfway To Paradise | 19th Aug 21, 11:06am 1629328007

They were talking about a trial opening for businesses from October this year.

by blobbles | 19th Aug 21, 11:47am 1629330427

Probably won't happen now though if the current situation goes on for a while.

by Halfway To Paradise | 19th Aug 21, 9:59am 1629323977

by profile | 19th Aug 21, 8:54am 1629320041

'The median age of deaths is 86 years

The overall proportion of cases under investigation in each state and territory is relatively low, indicating that public health actions, including case identification and contact tracing, is occurring in a timely manner.

To date, more than 28,390,500 tests have been conducted nationally. Of those tests conducted, 0.1% have been positive.'

https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-a…

by False economies | 19th Aug 21, 11:01am 1629327664

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-Focus-on-Ages-0-1…
Between april and August out of 614,000 deaths, about 250,000 were in the 45-75 age group bracket

by JustAnOpinion | 19th Aug 21, 9:26am 1629321983

Spare your energy MFD, Profile, Big Jim they are not going to be convinced by anything, they like to think they are "independent thinkers"...

by mfd | 19th Aug 21, 9:41am 1629322870

You may be right. I'm interested to hear the arguments against a short sharp lockdown though - the decision seems obvious to me. What's a better alternative?

by Foxglove. | 19th Aug 21, 10:05am 1629324356

Correct at present there isn’t and that will remain so until the nationwide vaccination has reached a level sufficient to re-evaluate the status quo. But the fly in the ointment will still be those that are not vaccinated by either personal circumstances or choice and whether that percentage of people is likely to assume the virus in numbers sufficient to cause an influx of hospital admissions beyond what can be accommodated and in turn what risk that will pose to everyday hospital admissions and procedures.

by mfd | 19th Aug 21, 10:03am 1629324190

Agreed, vaccines for everyone who wants it doesn't take our risk down to zero. For me, I think it brings the risk to an acceptable level, perhaps with some minor restrictions to spread things out as needed. At that point the choice is between opening up or waiting for an improved vaccine or the world to rid itself of covid, both of which could add years to the timeline - I don't think that's practical.

by Big Jim | 19th Aug 21, 10:16am 1629324960

So this "influx to the hospital" you talk about ....

Is this where the 10 live cases are now????
Or is it just the 9 (and not the fully vaccinated nurse)?

Anyone?
IM guessing the answers dont suit the fear narrative

by mfd | 19th Aug 21, 10:21am 1629325316

We're talking about the hypothetical opening up once vaccines are rolled out, do keep up. If vaccination rates aren't high enough, vaccines aren't 100% effect, and variants are spready enough then you can still end up with very busy Hospitals as in parts of the US right now.

by Big Jim | 19th Aug 21, 10:34am 1629326049

vaccines arent 100% effective - do keep up
sorry - "very busy hospitals" doesn't pass peer review
were they not "very busy" beforehand ? ... ground reports suggest the (covid) busyness is fallacy (links not available under censorship guidelines)
will "leaky" vaccines make the problem (better short term) and far worse (medium term)?
who knows where the reality lies ... but the science appears like its fishing off a leaky schooner

by Foxglove. | 19th Aug 21, 10:47am 1629326865

Hard to know isn’t it. If the nationwide lockdown from March 2020 hadn’t occurred NZ may well have had an overload of pandemic patients swamping hospitals. Heck even the White Island tragedy went close to that as far as ICUs. But because the lockdown did occur that factor can’t be described and nor will it be if the policy of immediate lock downs continues on the emergence of covid cases in the community. If and when that lockdown policy ceases, then your concerns regarding theoretical admissions are likely to be identified as valid or not.

by mfd | 19th Aug 21, 10:48am 1629326900

Well aware vaccines aren't 100% effective, this is why I included it in my post. Yes, they are very busy now, imagine adding a few hundred or thousand needing treatment for covid into the mix.

I'm not sure we agree on base truths - do you believe covid is real, spreads fast and causes illness and deaths?

Profile posted a 0.15% IFR up thread which I didn't dispute - maybe it's double or half that in NZ's exact situation, who knows? For each death there'll be a number of other hospitalisations, shall we say 5? Here in Chch we serve a slightly smaller population than Fiji, so using their example we'd see ~10 deaths per day and ~50 hospitalisations on top of what we have now - we do not have the beds for this.

by Noncents | 19th Aug 21, 12:00pm 1629331210

It's an interesting conundrum. Worthy of a quick theoretical experiment.

Q: Why don't we want overloaded hospitals?
A: because treatments may be deferred/missed due to shortage of resources. Potentially leaving people with long term/ongoing health issues or worse case dying.

So, what exactly is the difference between a lockdown and the virus running rampant? Both remove the resources, both cause ongoing issues, and have caused deaths.

I agree we don't have the beds for masses, but we don't have them now either.
I agree we are saving some lives, but at the same time we are already condeming some to death.

When all this comes to an end and we look back with hindsight, I wonder if we would have done things differently.

by mfd | 19th Aug 21, 12:27pm 1629332873

There is a difference between turning away people who need a hospital bed right now and delaying routine treatments and diagnostics. At the very least, it feels very different to the person sending them away.

by rastus1 | 19th Aug 21, 1:24pm 1629336242

Tell that to a patient with an illness that is rapidly becoming terminal due to non treatment. I think the point made was a good one. We are basically ignoring the thousands who seriously ill and are being pushed aside for covid preparations.

by False economies | 19th Aug 21, 10:41am 1629326485

It's funny, you and profile and co talk about the hyped FEAR all the time, and yet it is your posts that scream fear more than most. Scared of vaccines, scared of lockdowns, scared of pharmaceutical companies, scared of govt interference...while most people just get on with it, living with a bit of hope while accepting that there are no silver bullets or easy decisions. There are always trade-offs in everything.

by Big Jim | 19th Aug 21, 11:02am 1629327760

apologies
I think Simon Dallow just really shook me up

by scarfie | 19th Aug 21, 10:06am 1629324363

It is the practice of being unscientific, you are anti science by behaving that way, all the while probably believing you are being rational. Nope, you are riddled with fear.

Consequentialist ethics have no place in science.

by mfd | 19th Aug 21, 10:12am 1629324758

I'm young, health and vaccinated and have no elderly family in NZ, so no reason for fear on my part. I also happen to be a practicing Scientist working in healthcare. I'm simply weighing up options and a short, sharp lockdown with a reasonable chance of wiping out covid once again seems way better than a drawn-out half arsed lockdown or letting rip and losing a few thousand people. Please point out my unscientific irrationalities specifically.

by scarfie | 19th Aug 21, 10:23am 1629325423

It is the weighing up that is half arsed. It simply can't be measured, the fact you are attempting it illustrated perfectly why this is a sham from start to finish, scientists that are simply not good enough.

by mfd | 19th Aug 21, 10:35am 1629326116

OK, well I'm an applied Scientist used to working in situations with incomplete information so this is fairly normal for me albeit on a much larger scale. Incomplete information does not mean there's no role for Science, just that the error bars grow.

How would you make this kind of decision if it were in your hands?

by Noncents | 19th Aug 21, 12:04pm 1629331462

"How would you make this kind of decision if it were in your hands?"

We would obviously all make different decisions. You probably wouldn't like mine.
But we will never know what response was better (Quantatively or qualitively) you can only really measure, how happy you were with the chosen response.

My gut feel is that in 20-30 years humanity will look back and say, we went a bit OTT with that Covid thing.

by mfd | 19th Aug 21, 12:18pm 1629332284

You may well be right. I am generally happy with the NZ approach so far though. The initial strong lockdowns were needed because we didn't understand the disease - people were throwing around 1-2% fatality rates at that time which would have been devastating. Once we managed to eliminate it we got stuck in a position where even if it's not as bad as we first though, it was less costly to maintain elimination than to let the disease in and have to deal with it.

We'll have to change tack eventually, and I think that when vaccines have been given to anyone who wants them is the right time.

by Noncents | 19th Aug 21, 12:30pm 1629333041

I agree with the initial lockdown (I think it could have been stricter)

But now, looking at everything I would just treat as endemic like the flu. Most people will come out of it just fine, a few will not.

My concern is that we have now set a precedent for future viruses. The whole concept of Zero deaths is simply fanciful. Build the underlying infrastructure to cater with health in general. Some will always get sick, and some will die, that is just nature.

by scarfie | 19th Aug 21, 2:46pm 1629341195

Well consequentialism isn't science, so why are you trying to do it if you are a scientist? For that reason alone I'd say you fall short of the standard required to be a scientist, but I guess you can call yourself what you like.

If scientists were intelligent enough they'd have gone into engineering. Same sort of thinking required but less room for mistakes, so the bad ones get weeded out. In medical science you just bury your mistakes, and lots have been buried over the years. Or the world of finance also picks off the best minds of this type.

Why also the need to make a decision? A whole personality trait in itself, this need for control. People can make their own decisions, and in fact the obesity epidemic says they already have and there is really bugger all you can do about that. So leave it alone. No one has ever given me a reason why I should have my civil liberties trashed for fat people.

My cousin, a philosopher, pointed out to me that science doesn't require ethics. And also that if it was required for people to die to prove the scientist right they would kill people. He is right, and there are examples in this whole covid experience to show it is true.

by Foxglove. | 19th Aug 21, 3:04pm 1629342265

Unfortunately not all of them are weeded out. Canterbury/Christchurch EQs offer due testament to that fact and if subsequently you had had to deal with some of that profession working for EQC and the insurers your confidence in that process would have taken quite a knock as well.

by mfd | 19th Aug 21, 3:17pm 1629343064

I can call myself a Scientist because of my Science degrees, my registration as a Scientist and my job title. Incidentally, one of those degrees minored in Philosophy.

Firstly, regarding decisions, you are calling for a world without public policy. Sometimes we are stronger as a cohesive body and decisions need to be made as a whole. The success of the first lockdown is a great example of this. On a smaller scale, if I don't make decisions at work patients don't get treated properly.

I can't speak for all of medical science, but in my area we have a very strong culture of reporting errors and improving from them, not burying them. As a result, our error rates are extremely small in a Medical context. We require some basic ethics - the goal of curing our patients and limiting the side-effects as we do so.

It's a shame you have such a distorted view of Science. Most of us are decent people.

by Foxglove. | 19th Aug 21, 3:55pm 1629345326

Well that is reassuring. Heaven knows where we would be if most of you were indecent. Just Kidding. have enjoyed the dialogue today. :>§)

by mfd | 19th Aug 21, 3:58pm 1629345489

That may be the case if we get the go-ahead to work from home.

by Carlos67 | 19th Aug 21, 10:47am 1629326824

Lockdown is the way to go but only if its strictly followed. The issue will be the more lockdowns or the longer the lockdown the less effective it will be. If everyone didn't leave the house for weeks it would work for sure but even the exercising locally thing has problems. Never seen so many people out walking, running, cycling and dog walking in my life the other day in our road.

by Noncents | 19th Aug 21, 12:44pm 1629333847

lol, exactly. A 1 year lockdown and the whole country would be fit enough to run a marathon.

Our overall health and fitness would increase to the point we would probably save hundreds of millions a year on healthcare as well.

by blobbles | 19th Aug 21, 10:12am 1629324775

This is correct, they appear to be some people with far fetched opinions, most of the time not supported by evidence. The number of times I have seen them show selective data interpreted wrongly, falsified data etc... it's just not worth it. Frankly I am surprised they are allowed to continue, but I guess we are in an age of misinformation...

NZ has shown go-hard lock downs have worked for us. We can revisit that policy when we have a high vaccination rate. Until our vaccination rate is way up there, the government is doing what it should, as evidenced by the past. The vaccine changes the situation, but only when we are well vaccinated.

by Big Jim | 19th Aug 21, 11:21am 1629328867

So ...
You talk about the "vaccine changing the situation" ... & about opinions "not supported by evidence"

So, how does does Israel's current situation reconcile these two statements ... in your (non) far fetched opinion?

by blobbles | 19th Aug 21, 11:39am 1629329974

Israel is only 64% vaccinated, so lots of unvaccinated people. Vaccinated people can still catch and spread it, but they are much less likely to suffer severe effects and their spread rate is lower (shorter infectious period). Everywhere around the world health professionals are reporting those that aren't vaccinated are worse affected.

All of this information is available and is being constantly updated by epidemiologists and subject matter experts. Instead of trying to create fear and panic via misinformation, maybe just read the official guidance, backed up by experts: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/delta-variant.html

by Big Jim | 19th Aug 21, 11:25am 1629329115

Unvaccinated and vaccinated have similar viral load in communities high in SARS-CoV-2 delta

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210803/Unvaccinated-and-vaccinated-…

Any thoughts?

by blobbles | 19th Aug 21, 11:44am 1629330252

For example, this is a great example of selectively interpreting data to suit a poorly thought out argument. This says nothing about the patient outcomes. So you have taken the context away and used it for fear mongering, either for yourself or to tell others.

Unfortunately I have engaged you, I will no longer entertain your lack of critical thinking by responding to specious arguments.

by Big Jim | 19th Aug 21, 1:44pm 1629337481

the IRONY being thick...
EVERYTHING is selective ! Thats why we keep rambling about the MSM / one source of truth rubbish

The standard response is as per yours ... "fearmongering .. lack of critical thinking ..."

by kiwichas | 19th Aug 21, 10:45am 1629326742

The pig-ignorant antivacc trolls out in force this am, best ignored

by Big Jim | 19th Aug 21, 11:47am 1629330457

Commenting here is limited to medical professionals.
Call them pig ignorant trolls if you must

https://www.medscape.com/sites/public/covid-19/vaccine-insights/how-con…

by False economies | 19th Aug 21, 1:24pm 1629336251

From the website you link to....so not really limited to medical professionals (not all of whom are qualified to give authoritative comment anyway...)
"Etienne Gauthier3 hours ago
@Dr. zachary kilpatrick ****I'm not a medical professional*** can you help me understand what should I conclude from this article?"

"Sinead Osborne1 day ago
Hi everyone. I'll be honest, I'm not a medical professional however I've been reading all these comments"

by Big Jim | 19th Aug 21, 1:54pm 1629338040

youre right
best ignore the other 1400 commentators - just in case

by False economies | 19th Aug 21, 3:44pm 1629344676

I'm not saying ignore the other commentators, merely pointing out that you saying it is all medics (and trying to gain some credibilty for your "argument") is false.
What is it that you think you are proving by linking to such a site? That doctors are saying there are side effects to a vaccine? Well, duh. Find me a doctor who won't agree with that statement.

Some of those comments are talking about magnets in the vaccine and conducting electricity....

by rastus1 | 19th Aug 21, 8:55am 1629320101

I do take issue with the term 'cases' when what they are talking about is positive tests. In my mind the term 'case' indicates someone is ill and being treated.

by scarfie | 19th Aug 21, 10:07am 1629324432

Another illustration of rhetoric trumping science.

by Squishy | 19th Aug 21, 9:16am 1629321387

Good cop, bad cop. Media scares people with irrational stories of Covid-19 mayhem and the Prime Minister appears on telly moments later to assure people everything will be all right if they do exactly as they are told.

It's great media and situational management by government. People who are not fearful will not be compliant.

by Foxglove. | 19th Aug 21, 8:01am 1629316915

With regard to vaccination for CV19 NZ has been caught with its pants at half mast. By way of comparison. When I moved into the primary produce export sector in the early 1970s we used to fasten onto Norway as subject for research and analysis. Primitive sort of work in those pre computer internet days undoubtedly, but certainly not unhelpful. Lengthy bit of land, mountainous, same population, outdoors active people, good fisherman, forestry, venison, harsher winter and out side of the EEC. Most of that still exists. Prompted on this thought early this morning when a well spoken lady from Norway phoned in to talk back to explain the situation there. They have had approx 145000 cases 810 deaths are now living day to day with 56000 active cases, life is virtually normal. Vaccination is over 50% for the first dose over 80% for the second. What have they got what we haven’t got?

by middleman1 | 19th Aug 21, 8:08am 1629317329

A competently managed vaccination program.

by Timmyboy | 19th Aug 21, 8:30am 1629318651

I hear this all the time but how would you run it better when shipments are at the whim of Pfizer with only a few days notice?

by Foxglove. | 19th Aug 21, 8:44am 1629319441

Or perhaps NZ flexed its muscles and haggled on price and simply got the Bird from Pzifer? Hence the necessity of the subsequent hasty phone call from the PM to Pzifer HQ?

by middleman1 | 19th Aug 21, 8:46am 1629319619

Our dismal developed world vaccination penetration ranking status shows it can be done far better. Foxgloves post shows other small nations pulled it off. The Ardern government said we'd receive priority but were not able to deliver on this promise. What evidence did they have for this or were they just making shit up ?

by kiwichas | 19th Aug 21, 2:08pm 1629338888

Just making it up, excuse was we do not have an emergency,.I note Ayesha Verrall had decided we did not need to order booster shots either, just in case we might not need them.

by gnx | 19th Aug 21, 8:10am 1629317452

The government was advised that Pfizer could only complete the supply of vaccines in the second half of 2021.Nothing has changed...we are on track.

I assume you are a boomer..have had your shot and now don't give a stuff about anyone else.

by frazz | 19th Aug 21, 8:18am 1629317898

Boomers underlockdown...que outrage

by middleman1 | 19th Aug 21, 8:27am 1629318467

Hipkins front of the queue track. We are about to pay the price for being last in the OECD.

by Lapun | 19th Aug 21, 9:43am 1629323010

Maybe the opposite - since most Kiwis are not vaccinated we are taking this lockdown seriously. My son in Sydney since Easter says Aussies are not sensible - plenty of people in the street, etc. If we had say 80% vaccinated would there be complacency about distancing, mask wearing, keeping records of shopping and public transport?

by middleman1 | 19th Aug 21, 10:03am 1629324189

NZs dismally low use of the tracer app before this outbreak suggest that low vaccination rates don't increase compliance. This despite most people being generally aware that NZ had escaped a contagion so far, in large part due to dumb luck. We got lucky with the wellington holidaying Aussie and had various other close calls. Ms Ardern explained how gullible Tauranga waterfront workers are susceptible to anti vax conspiracy theories leading to mass exposure on a covid carrying freighter. Again, by some miracle, it seems we dodged yet anther bullet there.

by sharetrader | 19th Aug 21, 10:03am 1629324198

it started at the leadership of NSW. she has not taken the right steps from day one and is very reactive, now she has put most of australia and NZ into lockdown all from one case. i am amazed at how (so far) queensland has kept it out with the amount of traffic going across the border.
as for NZ, many of us knew it was a matter of time it came across our border and those that work in those industries connected to the border prepared last week when the warning was issued

by Foxglove. | 19th Aug 21, 1:08pm 1629335328

Your response is as intemperate as it is inaccurate. My age is beyond that of a boomer. At this age and stage of life a lockdown causes little change to my usual activities. My concern though in raising the Norway comparison is that here is a similar nation to that of NZ, now entertaining a lifestyle near enough to normal. Therefore if NZ had arrived at the same vaccination progress in the same time a lot of NZrs might too have the advantage of not having lockdowns suddenly arriving and interrupting employment and social activities and the overhanging threat associated with that almost on a daily basis.Obviously that would include those younger than the detested boomers as well.

by HouseMouse | 19th Aug 21, 8:22am 1629318157

Interesting thoughts.
Very different cultural mindsight. No-nonsense competence and efficiency is central to the Scandanavian mindset.
Also, their whole economy and society was never decimated by neo-liberalism. Community wellbeing remains a very high priority.

by Foxglove. | 19th Aug 21, 10:52am 1629327134

Yes on visits to Scandinavia, Baltic States there is a level of community self support, mature, progressive and born out of necessity. Has to be, the winters are extreme, deadly dangerous for a start. Think this social status is partly what Sweden based their strategy on plus they have, or may still have, an accurate nationwide tracking system of individual alcohol consumption, that would have been adapted one would think.

by Pragmatist | 19th Aug 21, 8:33am 1629318835

People that know that "Vaccination is over 50% for the first dose over 80% for the second." doesn't make sense....

by Foxglove. | 19th Aug 21, 8:58am 1629320289

Apologies, didn’t intend to confuse, perhaps could have said 50% of the population has been vaccinated once and another 30% has been vaccinated twice.Post was already getting a bit wordy though.

by TheTor | 19th Aug 21, 9:48am 1629323288

That's just terrible maths as it doesn't equate to 80% of anything.

by dollar_bill | 19th Aug 21, 11:35am 1629329734

A bit like the logic applied to vaccine shipments and vaccination rates.

by TheTor | 19th Aug 21, 9:45am 1629323148

Haha my thoughts exactly.

by FCM | 19th Aug 21, 8:49am 1629319790

yep what is the plan. Is it to open up and live with virus once we are 70% vaccinated. Or is it lockdown as soon as one case pops up even after we are vaccinated. If the later, then they should stop ALL flights from Oseas except cargo and medical and reduce MIQ to basically nothing and wait ten years to see what happens in rest of the world. I am hoping they have the sense and see you need to live with this and it aint ever going away. So get on and roll out some huge vaccination programmes in schools, large workplaces, big government organisations, at airports.

by Cowpat | 19th Aug 21, 7:54am 1629316498

Having read the confusing but enjoyable August MPS , the baseline scenario for house prices, puts the median New Zealand home at $ 1,016,000 end 2022 .

by HouseMouse | 19th Aug 21, 8:11am 1629317518

That's sick.

by JustAnOpinion | 19th Aug 21, 9:30am 1629322219

And 7 figure housing prices in Auckland central suburbs will start with a 2 for a 3 bed. Looking at suburbs such as Remuera (lol) semi-detached 3 bed will start with a 3, stand alone house will start with a 4.

I remember when the lottery was $1,000,000.00 !! Only a handy deposit on 3 bed now.

by Audaxes | 19th Aug 21, 8:01am 1629316884

The US Fed released the minutes of their last meeting earlier today and they now see their inflation target being hit. But they are debating the timing and mechanics of easing back their stimulus policies.

The US administration is reacting: Biden To Increase Food Stamp Benefits By 25%, The Largest Hike In The Program's History

by Cowpat | 19th Aug 21, 8:06am 1629317173

As New Zealand locks down and the RBNZ holds I see no change to front runner ANZ mortgage rates.

by JustAnOpinion | 19th Aug 21, 11:05am 1629327928

No need, the pretence of competitiveness is surely no longer required given the evidence to the contrary without any interest from regulators. I will however get a laugh if the others in the cartel raise theirs in kind.

by Audaxes | 19th Aug 21, 8:08am 1629317305

US’ irrational Xinjiang crackdown a danger to global industrial chain

In addition to a series of bans or restrictions on Xinjiang cotton, tomatoes and polycrystalline silicon, the US Congress is expected to launch a tougher crackdown against the region by approving "legislation later this year that would prohibit imports of all products from Xinjiang unless the importer can prove their items are free of forced labor," the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday.

What would this mean for the global price of goods?

by youngdumbandbroke | 19th Aug 21, 8:37am 1629319065

I'm not sure the free of forced labour part is irrational, though.

by Lapun | 19th Aug 21, 9:46am 1629323174

I wonder if that applies to the international deep sea fishing fleet. Will even NZ start to worry about slave labour on fishing vessels operating near NZ?

by JustAnOpinion | 19th Aug 21, 11:12am 1629328371

Our navy has 9 ships, even if we objected it would be a little meaningless.

by FCM | 19th Aug 21, 8:43am 1629319403

Are they rolling out the wage subsidy again...how many millions are the likes of Fletchers etc allowed to claim, even though these companies are posting huge profits. Its easy to show a 40% drop in revenue when no one is working.

by youngdumbandbroke | 19th Aug 21, 8:49am 1629319792

IRD would rather fry the small fish as per

by frazz | 19th Aug 21, 9:01am 1629320480

Don't worry about it -its not as if you and I are going to have to pay it back - once again its loaded onto the future to worry about - relax!

by Squishy | 19th Aug 21, 9:11am 1629321097

I saw an entertaining suggestion the other day that, now all the people with holiday houses have fled Auckland, people who are in need of a house should occupy the empty dwellings.

I thought it was particularly funny because we all know that Property Rights are inalienable whereas Human Rights are only theoretical propositions in New Zealand.

by Lapun | 19th Aug 21, 9:51am 1629323510

Squatter's rights to property ownership in the UK was either 12 or 20 years. But the concept is not uniquely British; tribes in PNG and I've been told Maori too accept the right to ownership of land if the original owner has made no assertion of ownership for a prolonged period. I had an Irish colleague whose parents returned to Ireland simply because if they didn't live on their small holding they would lose ownership by Irish law. So the principle of squatters rights is widespread and accepted - all NZ has to do is make it 20 days not 20 years. All those empty houses would be occupied before October.

by alittle | 19th Aug 21, 9:47am 1629323229

"RBNZ forecasts house prices will rise another 10% by mid-2022, before falling 5% by late 2024; It says house prices 'appear to be above their sustainable level';"

WHAT A STUPIDITY

RBNZ admits that house price is at unsustainable level and than say that it expects further 10% rise......WHAT ARE THEY DOING NOW IF THEY KNOW THAT WILL RISE FURTHER.

RBNZ expects house price to rise by 10% and than assures FHB that will fall by 5%.....Really is it a joke....are they not creating FOMO ......

If one reads or listen to RBNZ, hard to understand except that he wants ponzi to continue.

He has been wrong most of the time as earlier said that house price will stabilise and now saying that price will rise by 10% but what if it goes up by 30% or 20% and than it falls by 5%. After massive rise of 70% to 100% even if the price falls by 5% what is he trying to say or unknowingly came out with his mindset.

IS THIS HOW JACINDA AND ORR HAS DECIDED TO SOLVE HOUSING CRISIS.....RISE BY 70% THAN FALL OF 5% THAN RISE......

If anyone make any sense of what he is saying.....

by mikekirk29 | 19th Aug 21, 10:19am 1629325188

China and Xi showing full authoritarian colour now and world barely noticing.
Taiwan only a matter of time.
Nov-Feb I would say.
China looking to dev its own economic sphere of dec countries
Is NZ going to have to accept it is one of them??

by JoolzT | 19th Aug 21, 10:23am 1629325411

Pfizer won’t grant licenses to manufacture the vaccine so we are reliant on a single supplier. Our fragmented, decentralised health system hasn’t helped. The joys of the free market! As my old dad used to say, it’s fine if you’re buying a car or a telly, but as an allocation tool for areas of public need it’s not neutral or self-regulating at all.

by Kate | 19th Aug 21, 1:12pm 1629335549

Has China stopped reporting on coronavirus stats;

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/

Very weird graphs there. Wonder if that's the kind of information they want to regulate internally and externally via the ISP/tech crackdown?

by Foxglove. | 19th Aug 21, 2:25pm 1629339959

Some interesting dynamics emerging. China and Russia to a slightly lesser degree, have been enhancing their relationships with the Taliban, well before the USA withdrawal was even announced . Some strategic ducks being lined up. Friends in Afghanistan, Iran, Syria, a very large territory virtually from the sub continent to the Mediterranean. Amongst that though is the problems both Russia and China have demonstrated in dealing with their muslim communities. Shifting sands indeed. In terms of CV19 reporting perhaps China has adopted Nth Korea’s model. Things have gone very quiet there too generally haven’t they.

by Billboy | 20th Aug 21, 11:39am 1629416346

Simple question. What is then cost of this (necessary) lock-down compared to the financial advantage gained by a few businesses through opening the border to Australia. It would be most interesting to find the premium we would have had to pay had we insured the whole country against this. It is my thought that no insurance company would touch it!! Any actuaries out there want to comment? There has been and will continue to be pressure to open the borders. In actuality (far beyond the experts predictions) we have survived fiscally well beyond even the expectations of the most optimistic.