Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
TSB has lowered its 1 year fixed rate to 4.85% today, well below the main banks, but has raised its 18 month rate at the same time. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
TAKING ANOTHER STEP LOWER
There has been a major drop in residential property sales in August. The REINZ data shows residential property sales were down -13% year-on-year in August. Details by region are here.
PUMPING THE BRAKES
August’s retail activity as measured through electronic card data shows retail spending dropped by over -$220 mln compared to July. From a year ago it is up only +$72 mln or just +0.8%, not inflation adjusted. Although these numbers are off a relatively strong July, the August drop disappointed retailers who blamed the rising OCR and a jump in petrol prices.
MORE BIG WHOLESALE FUNDING ACTIVITY
ANZ (NZ) and BNZ borrowed a combined €1.75 bln via covered bond issues (about NZ$3 bln). These are a form of securitisation of home loans, allowing the banks to raise super-sized wholesale funding - on top of outsized recent regular bond issues.
'HIGH' BUT TINY
Banking disputes hit a 10-year high in the year to June 2026.according to the Banking Ombudsman Scheme, while fraud and scam complaints fell -40%. But by any measure, these numbers are very small, with just 283 disputes in the year, with 260 of them resolved. Given there are more than 3.8 mln bank customers, the volume of complaints that are handed to this Ombudsman service is remarkably tiny.
STUCK HIGH
There were 28,350 commercial premises for lease in our latest review of the realestate.co.nz 'for lease' section. That is +13.8% higher than year ago levels and while this overall level isn't really rising, it isn't falling either, so no noticeable sign that an improving economy is needing more commercial premises.
NZX50 DIPS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is down -0.3% today so far. It is down -2.2% for the past 5 trading sessions. But it is up +2.5% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up only +2.2%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +1.0% so far today. Gentrack, Kathmandu, a2 Milk and AirNZ lift while Infratil, Channel Infrastructure, Ryman and Vista Group fall.
Payments NZ says Minister of Finance Nicola Willis has designated the High Value Clearing System (HVCS) under the Financial Market Infrastructures Act, following a Reserve Bank recommendation to do so. HVCS, which is operated by Payments NZ, will receive formal Reserve Bank regulation and supervision from 12 October. About $551 bln worth of payments, including house purchases, are cleared through HVCS every month.
STABILISING?
China's new-built house prices have stopped falling overall. This is largely due to small rises in some of their largest cities. However in a majority of their seventy largest cities, new house prices fell or were unchanged. For second and third tier cities they are still falling although at a slower rate. For existing homes, they are still declining too.
CHINESE RETAIL HURT BY LOW CAR SALES
And staying in China, their retail sales rose a meagre +0.4% in August from a year ago, less than their low inflation levels and slowing from a +0.6% gain in July. And that was only half the expected +0.8% increase. There was weak demand for big-ticket items, with car sales down a very sharp -18.5%, furniture was down -7.9%, building materials -11.8%, and gold and silver jewelry sales fell -17.5%. If it wasn't for the sharp fall in car sales, the rest would have been up +2.5%, helped by cosmetics, hospitality, and appliances.
STILL DISCONNECTED
China said its industrial production industrial production rose +5.2% in real terms in August from a year ago. However, China electricity production was basically stable in August, essentially matching the July level and up +0.8% from year-ago levels.
SWAPS FIRM
Wholesale swap rates will likely be higher today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The RBNZ 90 day rate was up +4 bps at 3.13% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield has risen +5 bps to 5.41% and the unusual discount to the New Zealand 10yr equivalent is now back at post-pandemic lows. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.68%. The Japanese 10 year bond is up +2 bps at 3.00%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 5.07% and up +3 bps from yesterday. (The RBNZ 10 year rate is 'prior day' and was down -2 bps to 5.01% on Monday.) And the UST 10yr yield is now at 5.01%, and up +3 bps from yesterday at this time and now its highest since 2007.
EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is now down -0.5% from Monday's close. The ASX200 has opened down -0.9%. Tokyo has opened up +0.9%. The KOSPI has firmed +0.3% at its open today. Hong Kong has opened down -0.2% while Shanghai is up +0.1% at its open. Singapore is down a full -1.0% in early Tuesday trade today. Wall Street ended lower with the S&P500 down -0.5% and the Nasdaq down -0.6%.
OIL PRICES HOLD HIGH
American oil prices are unchanged from yesterday with the WTI benchmark still at just under US$103/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -50 USc at just on US$107/bbl.
CARBON PRICE FIRMS
There have been very few trades reported so far today. The price has risen to $50.50/NZU and up +$1. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD DIPS AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is down another -US$24/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4311/oz. Silver is down -50 USc at US$63.50/oz.
NZD LOWER AGAIN
The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from this time yesterday, now at 57.6 USc and back down to its July dip. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 80.8 AUc. Against the euro we down -10 bps at just under 49.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just on 61 and down -20 bps from this time yesterday.
BITCOIN ON HOLD
The bitcoin price is now at US$77,893 and up less than +0.2% from yesterday. Volatility has been modest, at just on +/- 1.3%.
HOW THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORCES AFFECT US
If you want to catch up on what happened last night, try our Economy Watch podcast, here.
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