Breakfast briefing: Markets see US as just a paper tiger on Iran

Economy / news

US data weakens; Canada retaliates on tariffs; copper & other base metals hit record highs; Taiwan delivers more strong data; private credit shock in Australia; bird flu spreads in Australia; UST 10yr at 4.64%; gold rises and oil falls; NZ$1 = 59.7 USc

26th Aug 26, 7:25am by David Chaston

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the oil price has eased overnight on signs of new negotiations between the US and Iran, and relief that the US sanctions weren't as advertised. They exempted Chinese banks, for example. And China said it will support Iran.

But first overnight, the Pulse dairy auction delivered higher prices from last week's full auction event - in USD terms at least. For example WMP was up almost +1%. But the rising NZD turned that into a -0.7% softening.

In the US, ADP weekly private jobs update remains very low with less than +12,000 new jobs added over the past four weeks.

Sales of new homes in the US were unusually low as well with the July level the lowest for that month since 2017 (apart from the pandemic 2022 drop). That puts them -6.5% lower than year-ago levels.

The Richmond Fed's factory survey came in with a positive overall outcome in August, but lower than for July and the lowest since April. Re-shoring isn't a thing in the Mid-Atlantic states. The growth rate of prices paid and prices received rose in the month. Meanwhile their services survey in the region revealed slowing activity, with only slight increases in prices and costs.

And that is consistent with the pullback in consumer sentiment as measured by the Conference Board in the US. It is measure that has been falling away since early 2025.

There was a less well supported US Treasury 2 year bond sale overnight, but the yield dipped to 4.16% (4.20% high) from the prior equivalent event a month ago of 4.27%.

In Canada, they reported lower wholesale sales in July, ending a run of expansions. The decline mainly reflects lower sales of agricultural supplies and minerals and ores. Otherwise little change.

In the escalating trade war the US is waging on Canada, Canada has responded with 50% duties on American dairy products, steel, farm equipment, and appliances.

And copper has risen to a new record high on the uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies. It isn't the only metal trading in the stratosphere of uncertainty. Tin is another example.

Taiwan's July update of industrial production extended its outsized growth reporting (+26.9% from a year ago). And that was matched with high growth of retail sales there (+7.7%)

Later today we will be watching the July CPI update from Australia where a fall in the rate from June's 3.8% to 3.2% is anticipated.

Meanwhile, they are dealing with some major events. Firstly in NSW, a major home builder has collapsed. The Bathla Group has failed owing AU$3.6 bln in debt supposedly due to soaring construction costs which they can't recover just as a sharp decline in property sales hit them. Construction activity has frozen across approximately 15,000 homes, townhouses, and apartment developments currently underway. The vast majority of the AU$3.6 bln of debt is owed to private credit funds and non-bank lenders. There are sure to be cascading impacts.

And bird flu is spreading faster now in Australia. So far more than 300 dead bird events have been confirmed out of 27,000 reports of unexplained dead bird events.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.64%, down -6 bps from yesterday at this time. The 30 year yield is at 5.18%, down -5 bps. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +44 bps (down -2 bps). Their 1-5 curve is now at +35 bps (-3 bps) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +94 bps (-6 bps). The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.68%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is now at 2.89%, up +1 bp. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.98%, down -1 bp from yesterday. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.75%, also down -1 bp.

Wall Street is slightly firmer with the S&P500 up +0.2% and the Nasdaq up +0.4%. European markets started mixed between Frankfurt's +0.6% rise and Paris's -0.2% easing. Yesterday Tokyo ended up +0.5%. Hong Kong ended little-changed and Shanghai was up +0.2%. Singapore rose a full +1.0%. The ASX200 ended its Tuesday session up +0.7%. The NZX50 ended up +0.8%.

The price of gold is now at US$4648/oz, up +US$12 from yesterday at this time. Silver has firmed +50 USc to just under US$69/oz.

Oil prices are down -US$3 from yesterday at just over US$82/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is just under US$88.50/bbl and down -US$3.50. Hormuz transits have completely stopped with no ships exiting over the past 24 hours (0 dark with transponders off) and only four entering for new loads (1 dark), all Iran linked. The Red Sea activity is still low at about about 20 each way at the Yemen chokepoint.

The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from yesterday at just over 59.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 83.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +10 bps at 51.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 63.2, up +20 bps from this time yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$79,195 and up +0.4% from yesterday at this time. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest at just on +/-1.7%.

Daily exchange rates

Select chart tabs

Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

65 Comments

by powerdownkiwi | 26th Aug 26, 7:39am 1787686776

Few seem to be making the connection between the rapid disintegration of the USA, both physically and socially (irretrievably connected) - and the validity of 'money' in the First World.

The collection of forward bets - in digital proxy, nothing more - on the planet has never been bigger, nor has the underwriting resource-stock been less. Never has there been more infrastructure succumbing to entropy.

Our government has attempted to prolong the myth that 'money' has permanent validity. Understandably unchallenged by those with something to 'lose', nonetheless the issue will have to be addressed. Stanford has attempted to peddle said myth to youngsters - part of the school curriculum; stating that money is a store of 'wealth', that money can make money (I kid you not). Ironic that that era is coming to an end, and that the reaction is to extend (everything; L/A sprawl over food-producing land) and pretend.

by murray86 | 26th Aug 26, 7:57am 1787687874

It's a significantly complex problem. The US dollar value is primarily propped up by external demand, but that demand is waning somewhat. Internal economic support is also significant too as internal local economies continue to function albeit conflicted by costs impacted by external events driven by their government. The upcoming midterms could have a significant impact, which will effect the rest of the world.

In NZ it is less clear. Government mismanagement since at least the 1980s has seen the structural support for our $ value undermined and depleted. The parties currently putting themselves forward for election are not presenting any plan or vision that would support our currency. Despite his mantra, Luxon doesn't even seem to understand what the 'basics' are for the NZ economy in an increasingly unstable world. It seems few if any of the others do as well.

by powerdownkiwi | 26th Aug 26, 8:54am 1787691267

I'm still waiting for an 'economics' journalist (close to an oxymoron, but) to examine what underwrites proxy (money).

Bessent Threatens To Blow Up GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM (graph at 19:23 is thought-provoking)

The moment Trump just lost the world

by Colin Maxwell | 26th Aug 26, 10:26am 1787696796

PDK - you ask what "underwrites proxy (money)." - I'll have a go.... How about, when you take out military threats and hegemonic coercion, you are really only left with the illusion of value, plus legal tender and tax laws.

The Illusion of Value

Modern fiat currency is a financial system built entirely on systemic obligations, debt mechanics, and the managed erosion of purchasing power. While often described as a tool for economic stability, fiat operates as a melting proxy for real money.

Unlike historical hard assets, it has no fixed anchor to physical reality. Instead, it functions as a highly sophisticated credit machine. This machine is designed to systematically devalue cash over time. By doing so, it forces capital out of savings and into active economic circulation.

Fiscal Extortion: The True Engine of Demand

The primary force underwritten by a fiat currency is the sovereign power of taxation. Governments do not rely on voluntary public trust to maintain their currency's worth. Instead, they legally mandate that all tax liabilities must be settled exclusively in the state-issued token.

This dynamic creates a perpetual, non-negotiable demand. Every citizen and corporation must continuously acquire fiat simply to avoid asset seizure or imprisonment. Legal tender laws reinforce this cycle by forcing courts and creditors to accept these digital or paper tokens to settle debts. This effectively outlaws alternative baselines for commerce.

The Aggregate Claim: Currency as a Diluting Share

A fiat token is essentially a circulating claim cheque on a nation’s total economic output, or Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It is underwritten by the collective intellect, labor, and resources of the workforce. However, because the supply of these claims can be expanded infinitely by central banks, the value of each individual token is continuously diluted.

When a government prints more currency without a matching increase in real-world goods, services, or resource monopolies (like energy and manufacturing), it does not create wealth. It merely dilutes the purchasing power of every existing token in circulation.

Balance Sheet Reality: A System of Capitalised Debt

Contrary to popular belief, fiat is not backed by reserves of wealth. It is backed by obligations of future payment. Every unit of currency issued exists as a liability on a central bank balance sheet. This liability is matched against government bonds, foreign reserves, and commercial debt.

Furthermore, the vast majority of modern money is created when commercial banks issue loans. This means fiat is fundamentally underwritten by debt. The system relies on enforceable claims against real-world collateral, such as physical real estate, corporate equipment, and business inventory. If the debts cannot be serviced, the underlying real-world assets are seized.

The Velocity Incentive: Why Devaluation is a Feature

The fatal flaw of the fiat system is its inability to act as a long-term store of value. When benchmarked against hard assets like gold, every major fiat currency reveals a steep, irreversible decay in purchasing power CME Group.

For example, the U.S. dollar has lost over 98% of its value since the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913. 85% of that value has been lost just since 1971.

This structural degradation is not an accident. It is a core feature of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) frameworks and central banking. By ensuring that idle cash loses value every year, the system penalises savers.

It forces capital into volatile financial markets, equities, and real estate simply to outrun inflation. This artificial velocity keeps the debt machine spinning, but it exposes the foundational unsustainability of unbacked fiat.

by powerdownkiwi | 26th Aug 26, 10:27am 1787696856

Cheers Colin - I wasn't asking, though.

I was asking why they aren't.

by Colin Maxwell | 26th Aug 26, 12:36pm 1787704589

"I was asking why they aren't."

Ok... I'll have a go at answering that one too...

Tenure-ship within the FIC.

In decades and tens of thousands of hours of study, until the last year or so, I only ever found three major entities who publicaly challenged this wealth heist long term... Prof Richard Werner, Ellen Brown, and Prof Michael Hudson.

The list is finally growing now especially in recent months when even an amoeba having a bad day, could reason that the fiat-casino model is broken.

The impetus? - well its finally beginning to dawn on academia itself, that they cannot continue to promote this thieving mythology because as the entire charade breaks down, they will lose their jobs anyway.

I have followed Ausy-born Prof Steve Keen* for years, as terminally boring and "told-yah-so" as he is, but it was only post 2008/GFC carnage that he dared to explicitly endorse structural alternatives, and in particular, the public utility money creation model.

*(In 2014, he became a professor and Head of the School of Economics, History and Politics at Kingston University in London. He has since taken retirement and is crowd source funded to undertake independent research)

Even the terminally stupid should have seen the writing on the wall, long before the GFC, and so I count Keen as a relative Johnny-come-lately.

So that's it - a grand total of 3! - representing 0.01%, in terms of all the qualified academic economists - no wonder the entire western world is in such a giant pickle.

by powerdownkiwi | 26th Aug 26, 1:36pm 1787708206

Frederick Soddy.

Wealth, Virtual Wealth and Debt - Wikipedia

I've owned a copy for years...

by murray86 | 26th Aug 26, 11:00am 1787698832

Colin these posts about economics and banking are gold! keep them up?

"A fiat token is essentially a circulating claim cheque on a nation’s total economic output, or Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It is underwritten by the collective intellect, labor, and resources of the workforce." This encapsulates my arguments about what supports the value of the national currency. Colins further commentary identifies why those values are persistently undermined. Further when Nixon tossed the gold standard, what most of us don't realise is that the real 'gold' for us is the industry, the economic activities that provided employment, products for our population to use and surplus to export. Outr politicians were too stupid to realise on the introduction of the 'Free Market' economic policies that in allowing our industries to be sold and relocated overseas, there were effectively giving away our gold.

Your commentary of 'Fiscal Extortion' provides the rationale as to why the tax system needs to be completely upended.

by interesting1234 | 26th Aug 26, 11:24am 1787700262

Yes the realisation for many that money isn't value, it is a promise, well exampled by the notes form the Bank of England displaying "I promise to pay the bearer on demand the sum of" whatever the denomination of the note is.

A promise, as in business, law enforcement etc, is only as valuable as the person is to keep to it. And when the populace realise that old mate USA may not pay up on work already done, they will look elsewhere to deal in currencies with more fortitude to this almighty promise.

by Bubbles1972 | 26th Aug 26, 11:43am 1787701412

Great post, thanks Colin.

by Let me be Frank | 26th Aug 26, 1:23pm 1787707419

Comprehensive and much to agree with ....one area however appears missed, interest, the increase in supply demanded (aka growth) is not enforced velocity it is the need to provide for interest....if the supply does not increase sufficiently then default must occur.

The end of the rentier economy.

by Colin Maxwell | 26th Aug 26, 9:32am 1787693566

Agreed,PDK.

The Mirage of Currency-Driven Prosperity

The narrative of persistent economic growth in Western-centric nations depends entirely on the metric used to measure it. For decades, Gross Domestic Product has served as the definitive gauge of national prosperity, tracking the total market value of all goods and services produced within a country's borders.

However, because GDP is denominated in fiat currencies, it inherently functions like a rubber ruler that stretches more with every passing year. When this fluctuating yardstick is replaced with a rigid, historically sound benchmark like gold, the illusion of steady expansion quickly dissolves.

Evaluating economic output through the lens of hard asset scarcity reveals that what modern frameworks celebrate as structural growth is, in reality, a reflection of currency debasement masking deep systemic decay.

The Great Quarter-Century Devaluation

When stripped of the artificial expansion of the fiat money supply, the trajectory of long-term economic performance shifts dramatically.

For instance, when the United States GDP is denominated strictly in ounces of gold, the economy peaks around the turn of the millennium near thirty-nine billion ounces.

Over the subsequent quarter-century, massive gold appreciation routinely outpaces nominal economic activity. By the mid-2026 macroeconomic landscape, this gold-denominated output plummets to roughly seven billion ounces, representing an aggregate collapse in gold-purchasing power terms of over eighty per cent.

While economists justly note that gold introduces its own localized volatility due to speculative commodity cycles, the long-term multi-decade trend remains clear. The apparent growth of the Western economic engine is heavily dependent on printing more units of currency rather than actually scaling up the physical volume of wealth.

The Financialisation and Churn Paradox

This distortion becomes even more acute when accounting for the concept of economic churn. Standard GDP operates as an agnostic ledger of gross transaction velocity, meaning it tallies all monetary exchanges equally, regardless of whether an activity is genuinely productive, neutral, or actively parasitic.

In heavily financialised Western economies, the Financial Services, Insurance, and Real Estate sectors represent an immense share of economic tracking. Activities such as high-frequency algorithmic trading, complex derivative restructuring, and speculative debt generation are categorized as high-value additions to the economy.

In practice, however, these operations function primarily as a circular vacuum, reallocating existing resources and extracting fees rather than inventing new goods or elevating societal capability.

Counting the Costs of Systemic Decay

Furthermore, conventional metrics frequently count defensive expenditures as positive growth.

When a nation suffers from crumbling infrastructure, widespread cybercrime, or expanding chronic health crises, the billions of dollars spent to repair roads, patch digital security networks, and treat illness are added directly to the national ledger.

GDP transforms the rising societal cost of a problem into a sign of economic health.

If a specialized accounting method were to systematically strip out this speculative financial turnover alongside the defensive costs of systemic failure, it would reveal that the core productive capacity of the West has drastically contracted relative to the global pool of tangible wealth.

The Thermodynamics of Economic Contraction

This structural decay becomes undeniable when evaluating Western economic performance through a biophysical lens, specifically using the benchmark of energy returned on investment (EROI).

This scientific metric measures the quantity of usable energy a society acquires relative to the amount of energy expended to obtain it. During the twentieth century, Western industrial expansion was fueled by highly concentrated, easily accessible fossil fuels that yielded massive energy returns.

Today, as those finite resources deplete, Western nations must rely on deep-water drilling, fracturing, and a transition to renewable infrastructures, all of which possess drastically lower energy return ratios.

When an economy's EROI falls, a rapidly growing share of its physical work and resources must be diverted back into the energy sector just to keep the lights on. This thermodynamic tax acts as a hidden drain on the economic engine.

While fiat GDP continues to rise due to the sheer cost and activity of managing this energy squeeze, the net surplus energy available to support health, education, and genuine innovation is steadily evaporating.

The Blind Spot of Physical Wealth Liquidation

This disconnect highlights a fundamental systemic error where nominal currency expansion is routinely conflated with true wealth generation, while simultaneously ignoring what heterodox economists refer to as Physical GDP, or true productive progress.

By prioritizing fiat transactions over physical realities, modern policy frameworks operate with a critical blind spot regarding resource depletion. Standard GDP accounts for the extraction and consumption of finite natural capital, such as minerals, topsoil, and clean water, purely as an immediate income stream.

It entirely zeroes out the long-term capital depreciation of the underlying ecosystem. A country that completely logs its old-growth forests appears remarkably prosperous on paper during the year of the harvest, despite permanently liquidating its foundational natural wealth.

Ultimately, this financialised accounting framework has allowed Western economies to mask severe de-industrialisation.

The Myth of Headline GDP 'Growth'

Because a dollar generated via a speculative debt instrument looks identical to a dollar generated by manufacturing a high-speed rail car or fabricating an advanced microchip, physical production has been systematically offshored by 'developed' Western-centric economies in exchange for debt-fueled asset inflation within an increasingly financialised model.

Under a historical gold benchmark, trade imbalances and excessive domestic deficits naturally triggered an outflow of specie, cooling the overheated economy and forcing structural realignment.

The modern debt-based monetary system completely bypasses this self-correcting mechanism, facilitating unprecedented asset bubbles and allowing paper money to spin faster and faster while chasing a shrinking share of real-world value.

by profile | 26th Aug 26, 8:11am 1787688673

Demographics is destiny.

"...The 20th-century model the country has inherited doesn’t align with today’s demographics. American seniors can no longer count on four or five workers each to pay for their benefits.

...A husband and wife with an income around $100,000 who turned 65 years old in 2025 are expected to receive 4.4 times as much in Medicare benefits (in present value and net of premiums) as they paid in Medicare payroll taxes during their working years. And the gap is projected to grow: That same couple retiring in 2045 is projected to receive 5.3 times as much in benefits as it paid in taxes.

Last year Medicare premiums covered 14 percent of the program’s expenditures. Payroll taxes covered 33 percent. The remaining 53 percent was mostly debt.

...The main Social Security trust fund will go insolvent in 2032, during the next president’s term in office, according to this year’s trustees report. The Medicare hospital fund will follow in 2033."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/interactive/2026/08/24/social-s…

by Foxglove | 26th Aug 26, 8:17am 1787689026

So to put it in Australian vernacular, the USA is white anted.

by murray86 | 26th Aug 26, 8:23am 1787689400

Pretty bad, but the core would be the costs of healthcare in the US wouldn't it? Their system is significantly broken.

by powerdownkiwi | 26th Aug 26, 8:38am 1787690317

Not so much cost - it's the allocation of available effort.

Less into their ME misadventure, less into the Trump rabbit-hole; less into unmaintainable infrastructure. Would release some effort.

by profile | 26th Aug 26, 9:19am 1787692745

Social security is just as dire. Dependency ratios are going from 8:1 in the 1950's to 2:1 by 2100. Hence welfare state politicians are hell bent on immigration at any cost.

"...Since 2010, Social Security benefits have exceeded payroll tax collections. ...Both programs are, and have always been, pay-as-you-go, where taxes collected from current workers fund benefits for current retirees. Social Security and Medicare both add to annual deficits right now, even though the trust funds still have positive balances on paper.

For many years, Social Security took in more money in taxes than it paid out in benefits. But the government didn’t save that extra money. Money stored in the trust fund is held in Treasury bonds, meaning the government spent it. "

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/interactive/2026/08/24/social-security-medicare-insolvency-is-coming-here-are-solutions/

"The population decline in the zero immigration scenario is especially significant, as it shows that in the absence of any immigration, there would be a continued annual population loss every year between 2024 and 2100."

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/new-census-projections-show-immigrat…

by Palmtree08 | 26th Aug 26, 9:37am 1787693872

"Hence welfare state politicians are hell bent on immigration at any cost."

Whereas the hard right are looking towards their women to fill the perceived need to grow like a yeast culture.

"There were an estimated 1.01 additional births above expectation per 1000 reproductive-aged females in states following the adoption of abortion bans"

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11826436/

"Instead of expanding access to contraception, the focus of Title X will be “to strengthen family formation and assist clients in achieving healthy pregnancies,” according to the new guidance. That will align the program with the administration’s efforts to increase the U.S. birth rate."

https://stateline.org/2026/06/18/trump-changes-pregnancy-prevention-pro…

by profile | 26th Aug 26, 1:52pm 1787709167

"1.70% increase" is not going to move the needle when births are running 25%-50% below replacement! Cool "hard right" story though.

by Palmtree08 | 26th Aug 26, 3:17pm 1787714270

Yeah, but this is just policy in it's "infancy". If the Christian nationalists can fully take over America, total ban on abortion, contraception and education indoctrination, the US will have birthrates fitting right into the Sub Saharan African club.

by LouB | 26th Aug 26, 10:56am 1787698610

Commodification of EVERYTHING.

What did you do today?

Oh, I ran the the childcare centre and generated $50 profit from each of the 35 kids for that service

Oh, I made 400 widgets and after paying childcare, I've got $100 left over.

Oh I delivered my consulting report recommending a 15% drop in head count and a 10% salary boost for the executive team and pocketed $20k.

Illustrative only. Cynical old b*****d am I not?

by Palmtree08 | 26th Aug 26, 11:03am 1787698996

Cynical? Nah, just observing who's running the hamster wheel.

by interesting1234 | 26th Aug 26, 11:49am 1787701746

Yep, you are describing the service sector vs the real economy. Find a niche, skim off of it for money while adding little real value, versus grow, build create something tangible and useful for society which gets undervalued and most of these ideas or contraptions don't get to market to have their true value realised.

by IT GUY | 26th Aug 26, 9:47am 1787694430

Bathla collapse may be Australian private credit’s cockroach moment

Private credit lenders should have seen the collapse of the Sydney home builder coming. But we’re about to find out who might be exposed.

by LouB | 26th Aug 26, 11:06am 1787699213

How big is the private credit sector in Australia?

Commentary has dropped away on the state of the private credit sector in other parts of the world.

Is this Aussie event a signal of imminent wider fracturing?

by Let me be Frank | 26th Aug 26, 10:50am 1787698209

Banking history, tax, war and more than one way to destroy a currency....unfortunately no consideration of LTG.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MWZ8hTwOCUU&t=2373s

by WFS | 26th Aug 26, 10:50am 1787698209

I read a lot of thoughts and reasoning around the issues and problems with the fiat system and impending entropy, and I dont disagree, however I would love to read more about what your possible alternatives are and how could that transitioin could ever occur.... or are there none.

by Bubbles1972 | 26th Aug 26, 10:56am 1787698571

Likewise. It seems like the way forward is to use all available finances to build a small, energy efficient off grid home on a patch of land where you can be somewhat self sufficient. Have a small town/village close for support and community.

The obvious issue being this is not going to be an option for all 8 billion people!

by powerdownkiwi | 26th Aug 26, 11:38am 1787701139

There are things you can do, and things too big to change.

You cannot change the 8 billion: they're here. (Catton was right, writing when there were 4 billion, but nobody listened).

You can insulate yourself - but it takes a willing partner/family (the usual brake). Yes, local and community are the key words; triage will presumably be a big thing (I joke about turning Ford Rangers into windmills).

Then it's a matter of optimising; best card first.

by interesting1234 | 26th Aug 26, 11:51am 1787701914

I'd say for one, get some tangible knowledge and skills to be able to share and/or use. Building, regenerative gardening/farming (composting, companion planting, soil maintenance etc), brewing, cooking, carpentry, forest management, all sorts of options. We all need hobbies anyway right?

by Bubbles1972 | 26th Aug 26, 12:09pm 1787702971

Sounds great to me. A massive shift for many though I feel.

by interesting1234 | 26th Aug 26, 3:30pm 1787715038

Anything to get people off of the technology and into the real world more will do us all some good. Roll on the weekend so I can get out to a national park and soak in a bit more of the pre-human world.

by Bubbles1972 | 26th Aug 26, 3:54pm 1787716450

I like the cut of your jib.

by Colin Maxwell | 26th Aug 26, 11:38am 1787701100

Hi WFS

I recently guest-wrote an article on solution based alternatives and it was enthusiastically endorsed by Prof Michael Hudson...

https://sovereignista.com/2026/08/22/the-financial-holy-grail-how-a-thr…

by Palmtree08 | 26th Aug 26, 2:13pm 1787710393

Any transition is incompatable with the exponential growthist agenda currently being enforced globally. Until that little issue is confronted nothing will change and we'll all be consuming ever smaller slices of pie. There are possible alternatives such as lifestyle advocates like David Holgrem

https://permacultureprinciples.com/permaculture-principles/?srsltid=Afm…

and Chris Smaje promote.

https://chrissmaje.com/

by bulls hit | 26th Aug 26, 11:00am 1787698807

Some insightful commentary on the Iran/Israel situation...

https://www.daily-sun.com/opinion/893406

Meanwhile China sits back, powder dry

by KH | 26th Aug 26, 11:56am 1787702161

Very wise article.

In regard to Israel. There is this line. ".......It may emerge as the war’s most striking paradox: strongest tactically, but most strategically diminished......"

by Colin Maxwell | 26th Aug 26, 12:22pm 1787703777

POSIWID stands for "the Purpose Of a System Is What It Does." Coined by British cyberneticist Stafford Beer.

It means that an international institution, treaty, or foreign policy should be judged by its actual, ongoing outcomes rather than its stated intents, noble ideals, or official rhetoric. (Wiki)

Indrajit Samarajiva ( AKA Indi), a wonderfully insightful geopolitical analyst has just written a very in depth article on this phenomenon as it relates to the US hegemony, and their contrived 'enemies'.

https://sovereignista.com/2026/08/25/the-logistics-war-part-1-the-oil/

Indi's conclusion...

"Bond markets are one of those second or third order effects that Ghalibaf was talking about. The effects of these effects will be higher interest rates, mortgage rates, and quite likely a Greatest Depression (long time coming). The trillion dollar question is when, but zero points for saying never.

The funny thing is that both Iran, Russia, China, America’s declared enemies, are trying to avoid this situation. They’re trying to give the Empire a way out. And it’s honestly easier than what they’re doing now.

All America has to do to resolve the Hormuz situation is go home. All they have to do to resolve the Ukraine situation is go home. All they have do to resolve the trade war is trade normally.

But no, they’re rather blow up their home front than abandon a bit of imperializing abroad.

This is how empires die I guess. The way they came in, just less successfully."

by murray86 | 26th Aug 26, 1:02pm 1787706146

"All they have to do to resolve the Ukraine situation is go home."

So let's ask the Europeans about that? Do you think they'd agree? Putin wasn't solving anything when he invaded Ukraine. He was doing the same thing the US is doing now in the ME. an unnecessary war that has the significant potential of backfiring completely and destroying your own nation. The Americans, and NATO, didn't start the Ukraine war, Russia did. All the rationales presented, including the political fiddling in Ukraine did not drive Russia to invade. They didn't drive Russia to invade Crimea or Georgia. Putin's ego did that on his own.

I have to agree that the best way they can resolve the Iran war is just go home.

by powerdownkiwi | 26th Aug 26, 1:37pm 1787708278

Believe me, Putin thought he was solving something.

Perspective...

by Palmtree08 | 26th Aug 26, 1:55pm 1787709327

"All they have to do to resolve the Ukraine situation is go home."

All the wannabe hegemony Russia has to do, is go home, and pay reparations of course.

by Colin Maxwell | 26th Aug 26, 2:10pm 1787710212

Your claim, Murray, that Russia started this war purely out of "Putin's ego" completely reverses the roles of aggressor and defender.

In the realm of great power politics, a nation cannot "go home" when it is already in its own neighborhood, defending its own borders against an encroaching foreign superpower.

Moving the Global Superpower Back Home

The argument that Russia can just pack up ignores the reality of who actually expanded into whose backyard.

Over the last thirty years, it is the United States and its military alliance that have moved over 1,000 miles eastward toward Russia, not the other way around.

Prominent political scientists, such as John Mearsheimer from the University of Chicago, argue that the conflict will only end when the U.S. stops treating Ukraine as an American military outpost.

For Russia, security means pushing Western weapons, trainers, and intelligence assets away from its 1,200-mile shared border. The true path to peace requires Washington to take its military footprint back across the Atlantic and accept that Eastern Europe cannot be used as a forward base to encircle Moscow.

The Double Standard of American Intervention

You compare this conflict to US actions in the Middle East, but completely miss the most crucial difference: geographic proximity.

The United States launched devastating wars thousands of miles away from its own borders against powers that posed zero threat to the American homeland. Russia, by contrast, is responding directly to an existential threat on its immediate frontier.

To understand why the US needs to withdraw, analysts frequently point to the Monroe Doctrine. For over two centuries, the United States has declared that any foreign military presence anywhere in the Western Hemisphere is a direct threat to its national security.

During the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, Washington was ready to risk a global nuclear war to force a rival superpower to take its missiles and "go home." By the way, it would have been more accurate to name it the "Turkish Missile Crisis", because Russia's response in Cuba was simply a reaction to the US preemptively installing nuclear missiles in Turkey and attempting to overthrow the Cuban government.

Expecting Russia to quietly tolerate a Western military footprint in Ukraine expects Moscow to accept a security vulnerability that the United States itself would never accept - tantamount to Russia installing nukes in Mexico, for example, and aimed directly at US cities.

Dismantling the Blueprint of Encirclement

The claim that Western "political fiddling" did not cause this war overlooks a clear, documented history of U.S. meddling designed to destabilise Russia's periphery.

Foreign policy experts like Jeffrey Sachs point out that the United States spent decades actively pulling Ukraine out of Russia’s economic and security orbit. This systemic blueprint shows how American interference progressively closed the door on peace:

The 1990s Expansion: Despite verbal promises to Moscow that NATO would not expand "one inch eastward" after the Cold War, the U.S. steadily absorbed former Soviet bloc states into its military alliance.

The 2008 Encirclement Declared: At the Bucharest Summit, the U.S. forced through a declaration that Ukraine and Georgia "will become" NATO members, crossing Russia's ultimate, well-known red line.

The 2014 US - Backed Regime Change: Top American officials actively engineered and supported the violent overthrow of Ukraine’s democratically elected, neutral president, Viktor Yanukovych, replacing him with a hand-picked, fiercely anti-Russian government.

The 2015-2021 Proxy Army Build: Long before the 2022 intervention, the U.S. poured billions of dollars into training, intelligence, and advanced weaponry, turning Ukraine into a de facto Western military asset designed to bleed Russia.

True De-escalation Through US Neutrality

The military actions in Georgia in 2008, Crimea in 2014, and the rest of Ukraine were not driven by ego, but were defensive, reactive maneuvers to stop U.S. encroachment.

In 2008, Russia acted to halt Georgia’s fast-tracked integration into NATO.

In 2014, Moscow secured its vital Black Sea naval base in Crimea before the new, U.S.-backed government in Kyiv could hand it over to Western navies.

For eight years, Russia tried to resolve the crisis through the Minsk Agreements, which would have kept Ukraine intact in exchange for regional autonomy and strict neutrality.

Western architects of the Minsk Agreements later openly admitted the treaties were used primarily to buy time to weaponise Ukraine, rather than to secure lasting neutrality.”

When the United States completely rejected Russia's final diplomatic proposals in late 2021 - which simply asked for a binding guarantee that NATO would stop expanding - Washington made it clear that it had no intention of respecting Russia's basic security.

This is not what you nor Palmtree wants to hear.... this blatant proxy war will not end until the United States finally agrees to back down, stop its eastward push, and let Ukraine return to being a neutral buffer state.

by powerdownkiwi | 26th Aug 26, 2:27pm 1787711222

Agreed.

Oh, but he's evil...

Note: 'they' all are...

by Palmtree08 | 26th Aug 26, 2:37pm 1787711834

You're better than that PDK. Justifying Putin butchery in Ukraine with some weird notion "he had no choice" is BS! Ukraine has every right to it's own agency without Kremlin dictatorship input. Your lack of care about Ukrainians rights to self determination is concerning!

"Oh, but he's evil...Note: 'they' all are..." So lets just turn a blind eye to Russian barbarism huh? You'd have to search pretty hard outside Netanyahu to find another leader commiting genocide in the neighbouring country.

Russian human safari Kherson.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lmyslTMbkkE

by Palmtree08 | 26th Aug 26, 2:27pm 1787711234

Always good to hear you repeating Russian mafia state propaganda Colin. Puts into perspective your lack of critical thinking, which reduces credibility of whatever else you have to say. Repeating the RT endorsed nonsense spouted by the likes of Sachs and Mearsheimer has an analogy with "profile" quoting Lomborg and Pielke on climate. Gaslighting at its finest.

by powerdownkiwi | 26th Aug 26, 2:42pm 1787712145

One can always find reinforcement. I look both ways, as much as possible. And obliquely too - my understanding of Russia includes the Arthur Ransome autobiography, for instance. Middle East includes Seven Pillars of Wisdom; Daughter of the Desert, and so on. Barbarossa/Kurst are good subjects, and always remember that the Great Game is over energy. Always was - the Germans lost WW2 by having less nett energy available, not because they were evil, or stupider. What the West did post USSR implosion - well, it's hardly surprising there are repercussions. Remember Peral Harbour was a repercussion (FDR oil embargo) - but: Yellow Peril.

Pipelines, vilifications, strategic advances - it's all about resources, the greatest of all being low-entropy energy (thus the US predicament doesn't go away if Trump ceases to exist).

by Palmtree08 | 26th Aug 26, 2:46pm 1787712417

And this justifies refusing Ukrainian agency how exactly? The thieving, murdering, torturing, raping of individuals, just wanting to get on with their lives in peace, without being subservient to Putins desire to expand his mafia empire? Who the F is this little turd, to have such a devastating effect over so many peoples lives?

by Colin Maxwell | 26th Aug 26, 2:38pm 1787711931

Clearly the resident russophobes choose to completely overlook the fact that European treaties showing that nations legally agreed not to enhance their own security at the expense of others.

The 1999 OSCE Istanbul Document and the 2010 Astana Declaration - both signed by the United States, European nations, and Russia, explicitly established the principle of the 'Indivisibility of Security.'

These binding agreements state that while nations have the right to choose their security arrangements, they 'will not strengthen their security at the expense of the security of other States.'

NATO expansion into Ukraine directly violates this treaty framework. Ukraine's desire to join a hostile anti-Russian military alliance cannot legally or logically override the collective obligation to maintain a balanced, stable security architecture for the entire continent.

by Palmtree08 | 26th Aug 26, 2:42pm 1787712153

"Ukraine's desire to join a hostile anti-Russian military alliance cannot legally or logically override the collective obligation to maintain a balanced, stable security architecture for the entire continent."

And who are Putin and his team of mafia fascists to dictate who the people of Ukraine associate with?

by powerdownkiwi | 26th Aug 26, 2:44pm 1787712254

Partly, it is hard being a dominant hegemony without someone else to vilify.

Or to justify your military-industrial complex via.

by Colin Maxwell | 26th Aug 26, 3:07pm 1787713642

I am afraid we are encountering selective memory syndrome here, PDK.

What the Russophobes Never Ever Mention

The mainstream Western narrative surrounding the conflict in Ukraine frequently presents the 2022 military intervention as an entirely unprovoked, isolated act of aggression driven solely by Kremlin expansionism.

This one-sided framing systematically ignores a complex, eight-year humanitarian crisis in eastern Ukraine that deeply influenced Moscow's strategic calculations.

Far from a sudden outburst, the military action was the climax of an ongoing civil war triggered by the 2014 Kyiv regime change, during which the Ukrainian government engaged in a sustained campaign of violence and systemic discrimination against its own ethnic Russian and Russian-speaking populations in the Donbas region.

The Domestic Pressure of Strategic Patience

Within Russia's political landscape, the primary criticism directed at Vladimir Putin prior to 2022 was not that he was too aggressive, but rather that he was overly patient and tolerant of Western and Ukrainian actions.

For eight years, Russian society watched continuous media coverage of residential areas in Donetsk and Luhansk being shelled by the Ukrainian military.

While the Kremlin consistently pursued the diplomatic framework of the Minsk Agreements - hoping to secure the safety and constitutional rights of Russian-speakers within a federalised, neutral Ukraine - domestic hardliners argued that this diplomatic patience was a fatal mistake.

They maintained that Moscow's restraint simply allowed Kyiv to build a heavily fortified military presence on Russia's doorstep with Western assistance, while the plight of compatriots in the Donbas went completely unaddressed by international bodies.

The Human Toll of an Ignored Conflict

The human cost of the war in Donbas between April 2014 and the end of 2021 provides the stark factual foundation that Western talking head commentators omit.

According to verified data from the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, the total death toll of this eight-year conflict was estimated between 14,200 and 14,400 people.

This devastating figure includes approximately 3,404 non-combatant civilians, alongside an estimated 4,400 Ukrainian service members and 6,500 Russian-backed separatist fighters.

Furthermore, civilian injuries during this pre-2022 period exceeded 7,000, leaving an entire region deeply traumatised by a war that the West chose to ignore because it did not fit their broader geopolitical narrative.

The Escalation of February 2022

The situation reached a breaking point in mid-February 2022, creating a catastrophic scenario that forced a military response. Reports from the independent Special Monitoring Mission of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe, which had been stationed along the frontlines for years, documented a massive, sudden spike in ceasefire violations.

In the days immediately leading up to the 24th of February, the international monitors recorded thousands of artillery explosions along the contact line.

Moscow interpreted this massive bombardment not as standard skirmishing, but as the opening artillery barrage of a long-awaited, full-scale Ukrainian military offensive designed to forcibly overrun and recapture the Donbas, leaving Russia with no choice but to intervene kinetically to protect the population.

Cultural Warfare and Linguistic Erasure

Beyond the kinetic warfare, the post-2014 authorities in Kyiv launched a systemic legislative assault on the identity of ethnic Russians, which Moscow viewed as a form of cultural erasure.

Immediately following the Maidan coup, the Ukrainian parliament pushed through controversial laws that stripped Russian of its long-held status as an official regional language.

Subsequent legislation heavily restricted Russian-language media, banned the importation of Russian books, and mandated the exclusive use of Ukrainian in public administration, commerce, and the educational system.

Despite repeated warnings from human rights organisations and European legal bodies regarding the violation of minority linguistic rights, Kyiv accelerated these policies, signaling to Moscow that peaceful coexistence and political compromise within Ukraine had been permanently destroyed.

by Colin Maxwell | 26th Aug 26, 3:27pm 1787714830

The Minsk Illusion and the Admission of Strategic Deception

The final collapse of the diplomatic path to peace becomes clear when examining how Western leaders actually viewed the Minsk Agreements. Brokered in 2014 and 2015 by Germany and France, these accords were meant to end the fighting in the Donbas.

The treaty required Kyiv to grant special constitutional autonomy to the Russian-speaking regions and declare permanent neutrality, in exchange for restoring Ukraine's control over its state border.

While Moscow repeatedly urged the West to make Kyiv honor these legally binding commitments, European leaders later admitted that the entire diplomatic framework was a calculated deception designed to buy time for military preparation.

The true nature of this diplomatic strategy was unmasked by the very Western leaders who brokered the deals. In late 2022, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel explicitly stated in an interview with Die Zeit that the 2014 Minsk Agreement was merely an attempt to give Ukraine valuable time to become stronger.

She admitted that everyone involved understood the conflict was merely frozen and that the problem had not been resolved, noting that Ukraine used that vital period to develop the formidable military capacity it displayed in 2022.

Shortly after Merkel's revelation, former French President François Hollande confirmed this assessment, stating that the Minsk Agreements had successfully halted the Russian 'offensive' for a time, giving the Ukrainian army a crucial opportunity to improve its training, equipment, and defensive posture.

For political analysts and the leadership in Moscow, these extraordinary admissions proved that the West had never acted in good faith. The Minsk process was not a genuine search for a peaceful, neutral solution, but a strategic delaying tactic used to convert Ukraine into a heavily fortified NATO proxy on Russia's border.

By treating international treaties as a screen to build up a military force capable of overrunning the Donbas, Western powers systematically shut the door on a peaceful resolution.

This left Moscow with the realisation that diplomatic agreements with Washington and Europe were meaningless, leaving military intervention as the only remaining tool to protect its security and its people - tragically this applies more than ever today.

This complete misrepresentation of Russia's position by the Western MIC, the MSM talking heads, and the Russophobes, who are dumb enough to swallow this tripe, cultivate by far the greatest existential threat to humanity in the last century.

The situation and the flashpoints now extent all the way from the Baltic to the African continent and is in serious danger of escalating into a nuclear holocaust, especially with lunatics like the Trump Admin and Netanyahu close to their red buttons. Putin and the RF know this only too well.

by bulls hit | 26th Aug 26, 5:19pm 1787721568

Perhaps the West had a slightly cynical view of Russia when signing the Minsk agreement, given that Crimea had been invaded and illegally annexed only 6 months prior

by Colin Maxwell | 26th Aug 26, 7:06pm 1787728006

Your attempt, Bulls Hit, to justify Western diplomatic deception completely reverses cause and effect by creating a false timeline.

To suggest that the West was merely "cynical" because of the March 2014 annexation of Crimea completely ignores the violent catalyst that occurred just weeks prior. In February 2014, the United States and its allies actively supported and celebrated the unconstitutional overthrow of Ukraine’s democratically elected, neutral president, Viktor Yanukovych.

This forcefully replaced a buffer government with a hand-picked, fiercely anti-Russian regime. Moscow's move to secure Crimea, and its vital, historic Black Sea naval base, was a direct strategic reaction to prevent a hostile military alliance from seizing its most critical southern defensive flank.

Furthermore, you are drastically downplaying what Western leaders themselves have openly confessed. Angela Merkel and François Hollande did not claim they were just acting out of "cynicism" over Crimea. They explicitly stated that the Minsk Agreements were treated as a deliberate delaying tactic designed to buy time to build up a heavily fortified, NATO-trained military in Ukraine.

If the West believed that peaceful diplomacy was impossible or invalid because of Crimea, they should not have signed a legally binding international treaty and pushed it through UN Security Council Resolution 2202.

To sign a peace accord with the explicit, pre-meditated intent to treat it as a military screen is not "cynicism" - it is absolute diplomatic bad faith. By using diplomacy as a weapon to arm a proxy rather than resolve a civil conflict, the West systematically destroyed the last remaining avenue for a peaceful, neutral solution.

by Colin Maxwell | 26th Aug 26, 4:28pm 1787718522

I believe that the RoW that are preparing for a new multipolar glolbal paradigm and in particular the China/Russia/Iran bloc, are actively managing the timeline of a collapsing American financial empire, and hoping to minimise the economic carnage along the way.

From this viewpoint, sideshows like the multi-trillion-dollar Dmitriev package and other ongoing diplomatic overtures, are not genuine attempts to integrate with the West, but are strategic, stalling gestures, allowing the United States to exhaust its remaining financial and military capital in unwinnable proxy conflicts. Beijing and Moscow may simply be running out the clock until the Western financial system collapses under its own weight.

The argument that the United States is approaching a point of financial insolvency is grounded in the structural realities of the U.S. bond market and the skyrocketing federal debt, which has led to intense global discussions about de-dollarisation. Analysts who share this view argue that the absolute limits of fiat currency and debt-financed warfare are rapidly approaching.

If the U.S. bond market faces a systemic loss of confidence, Washington will lose its ability to issue the cheap debt required to fund its global military footprint, maintain overseas bases, and continuously supply weapons to active fronts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

In this context, floating massive economic proposals like the Dmitriev package serves a dual purpose for the Kremlin.

First, it offers a temporary diplomatic distraction that sounds out the true level of desperation within the political establishment of a transactionally minded Trump administration.

Second, it buys critical time. By dragging out negotiations over the next few months while the underlying economic indicators of the West continue to decay, Russia and China can allow the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran to reach their natural conclusions as Western funding mechanisms naturally dry up.

Therefore, rather than an abrupt financial strike, the evidence suggests that Beijing and Moscow prefer a controlled, gradual dismantling of the U.S. dollar hegemony. They are systematically building parallel financial architecture - such as the mBridge digital currency platform and non-dollar clearing systems - to insulate themselves from the inevitable fallout.

Floating economic packages and testing the waters with Washington allows them to safely manage the decline, ensuring that when the U.S. fiat system finally unravels, the Eastern powers are at least partially protected while the West absorbs much of the economic shockwave.

by Let me be Frank | 26th Aug 26, 4:46pm 1787719576

You do your understanding of the mechanics of money a disservice Colin when you conflate the mechanics with personalities....there is nothing altruistic about Putin or even Xi, though Xis record to date may be considered more confined to his realm...that may or may not last.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AgHaGrZkkv4

by Colin Maxwell | 26th Aug 26, 6:22pm 1787725322

You are attempting to reduce a complex, structural argument about global macroeconomics into a simple debate over personal morals and individual altruism.

By claiming I am "conflating mechanics with personalities" because Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping lack "altruism," you completely miss my original point.

My original comment did not attribute altruism, kindness, or benevolence to the leadership of the Russian Federation or China. Instead, I presented a hypothesis of how these powers might be navigating the systemic structural decline of Western financial dominance

Your critique falls flat because it projects a requirement for "altruism" onto a strategy that is entirely driven by self-preservation and cold geopolitical calculation. Realist international relations theory dictates that states act to secure their own survival and maximize their stability.

When I argue that the non-Western bloc is attempting to "minimise the economic carnage along the way," I am describing strategic damage control, not charity.

Beijing and Moscow rely heavily on global trade networks and stable commodity markets. A sudden, chaotic implosion of the U.S. dollar or a rapid collapse of the U.S. bond market would cause massive global hyperinflation, destroy primary export markets, and trigger worldwide instability. Managing the timeline of a rival’s decline to protect one's own domestic economy is an act of supreme self-interest, not altruism.

Floating an astronomically inflated $12 trillion joint investment framework directly to a transactionally minded U.S. administration is a classic example of using economic diplomacy as a tactical stalling mechanism. The Kremlin is fully aware that the U.S. financial system is heavily burdened by skyrocketing federal debt and vulnerable bond auctions.

By offering a massive commercial distraction to Washington, Moscow effectively tests the waters, sounds out Western desperation, and buys the necessary time for the parallel BRICS+ financial architectures, such as the mBridge platform, to mature. This allows the shifting global paradigm to safely decouple from the dollar before the system fractures.

Nice try, but ultimately it is you Frank, who is blatantly guilty of conflating mechanics with personalities.

By shifting the conversation to whether Putin or Xi are "good" or "altruistic" actors, you completely ignore the mathematical and structural realities I raised: the limitations of fiat currency, the strain of debt-financed proxy warfare, and the mechanics of de-dollarisation.

BTW, your link to the music video for "People Are Strange" by The Doors, is little more than an attempt at ad hominem mockery, relying on vague, emotional pop-culture tropes, rather than engaging in a serious discussion on geopolitics and macroeconomics.

This further destroys your claim that it is me that "conflates mechanics with personalities."
You actually reinforced with readers, the definitive proof that it is you who is obsessing over personalities, rather than engaging with my macroeconomic points.

Nations do not build parallel clearing systems or accumulate massive physical gold reserves out of emotional spite or personal ego; they do so as a structural defense mechanism against a failing reserve currency.

Just like the talking heads on MSM, you attempt to shift the focus onto the personal morality of foreign leaders to try to create a convenient distraction from the very real, systemic economic unwinding that Washington is currently facing.

In your case I believe you may be doing this unwittingly.

by Let me be Frank | 26th Aug 26, 6:37pm 1787726278

"My original comment did not attribute altruism, kindness, or benevolence to the leadership of the Russian Federation or China. Instead, I presented a hypothesis of how these powers might be navigating the systemic structural decline of Western financial dominance"

Oh that it did...rather you sought to excuse the immoral and detrimental acts of the Putin regime with some form of fake justification for the suffering of millions of innocents

by Colin Maxwell | 26th Aug 26, 7:09pm 1787728182

Frank, your retreat into pure emotionalism and moral signaling is a text-book confirmation that you have completely run out of structural, economic, or factual arguments.

When presented with hard macroeconomic data regarding the U.S. bond market, fiat currency limits, and the strategic timing of de-dollarisation, you cannot engage. Instead, you create a classic straw man fallacy, claiming that an objective analysis of global power mechanics is somehow an "excuse" or "justification" for human suffering.

Analyzing the cold, calculated moves of a nation-state is not an act of moral validation; it is the fundamental basis of realist geopolitics. If a meteorologist explains the atmospheric mechanics that cause a destructive hurricane, they are not "excusing" the storm or justifying the suffering of those in its path - they are explaining why it happens. Your inability to understand the difference between explanation and justification is exactly why your critique falls flat.

Furthermore, it is precisely this mainstream framing - reducing existential, balance-of-power conflicts to a simplistic, emotionally charged narrative of "good versus evil" - that represents one of the greatest threats to global stability today, and risking large chunks of the Northern Hemisphere being turned into molten glass.

When commentators like yourself choose to ignore documented security red lines, broken diplomatic treaties like the Minsk Accords, and structural economic shifts, you close the door on rational diplomacy. Framing a rival superpower purely as an irrational, immoral actor with no defined security interests makes compromise impossible and actively drives the world towards a catastrophic miscalculation.

I am looking at the cold, mathematical chess board of global finance and state survival. You are looking at a moral melodrama. Until you can separate your personal emotions from the structural mechanics of global macroeconomics, you are simply talking to yourself.

by Let me be Frank | 26th Aug 26, 7:20pm 1787728854

Sorry for being human. If you hadnt noticed (it appears you havnt) ALL treaties are temporary. I have no idea why you seek to ignore the hypocrisy of you view on Putins actions in Ukraine but will confidently predict that you will never gain acceptance of your analysis until such time as you can recognise the fact.

Good luck.

by Colin Maxwell | 26th Aug 26, 8:22pm 1787732558

Frank, dismissing this situation with "ALL treaties are temporary" you are admitting a staggering admission of intellectual and strategic bankruptcy.

By dismissing international treaties as disposable scraps of paper, you are openly embracing a lawless global playground where signatures mean nothing and raw military power is the only rule.

If binding diplomatic accords, such as the Minsk Agreements or the UN Security Council resolutions that encoded them, are just temporary delaying tactics to be cast aside when convenient, then the West has completely destroyed the possibility of peaceful coexistence.

You are actively justifying the exact untrustworthy, treaty-breaking behavior that makes kinetic conflict inevitable.

This systematic transformation of international law from a tool of dispute resolution into a weapon of geopolitical coercion is precisely what has broken global trust. The Western establishment fiercely defends the territorial integrity of its proxies while routinely violating the sovereignty of nations across the Middle East whenever a regime change serves its strategic goals.

The unilateral seizure of foreign central bank reserves, the imposition of secondary economic sanctions, and the weaponisation of the SWIFT banking system have proven to the Rest of the World (RoW) that Western legal and financial institutions are inherently unsafe.

When treaties endorsed by the United Nations Security Council are publicly unmasked by Angela Merkel and François Hollande as deliberate delaying tactics used to build up proxy armies, the entire concept of diplomatic deterrence collapses. The West has proven itself fundamentally "agreement-incapable." Diplomacy cannot function when a signature on an international accord is treated merely as a temporary screen for military or economic encirclement.

Faced with an adversary that treats international law as a disposable weapon, the non-Western bloc has abandoned the illusion of Western-led integration.

As I noted originally, they are not acting out of "altruism" or emotional spite; they are executing a structural defense mechanism. The rapid deployment of the mBridge digital currency platform, the expansion of non-dollar clearing mechanisms, and the aggressive accumulation of physical gold are designed to neutralize Western financial leverage entirely.

Your vague warning that I will "never gain acceptance" for my analysis is nothing more than a retreat into the safety of mainstream media consensus. I am not seeking the approval of the crowd - I am analyzing documented historical facts, treaty violations, and the structural realities of a failing fiat currency system.

By gradually running out the clock while the debt-burdened U.S. bond market fractures under its own weight, the global majority is actively preparing for a multipolar paradigm where security is guaranteed by a hard balance of physical power and commodity-backed trade, rather than the worthless promises of Western diplomacy.

You started this debate trying to lecture me on personal morality, and you have ended it by arguing that international law is meaningless. You haven't exposed any hypocrisy, on my account, you have exposed the absolute nihilism of your own.

by Let me be Frank | 26th Aug 26, 4:22pm 1787718143

A hegemon lives or dies on its ability to project power...that does not necessarily require a demon to vilify. The fact that the Trump led US is a cot case of human failings is no reason to overlook or justify other forms of human failing....and Putins Russia is another example.

Sadly history shows that those of lesser morality tend to have greater ambition and greater success(?)

by murray86 | 27th Aug 26, 7:57am 1787774259

Colin, you're ignoring the entire rationale behind NATO. Your blindness ignores the fact that NATO is now closer to Russia as a consequence of Russia's activities convincing Sweden and Finland to join. Ukraine did not join NATO, and is not a member. It has applied at least twice and been rejected both times. Ukraine had multiple security guarantees with Russia which were ignored by Putin twice, the first time when he invaded Crimea and the second time when he invaded the rest of Ukraine.

America has not expanded towards Russia. NATO was a defensive agreement post WW2, between the European nations and the US. US support at the time was considered essential due to their industrial capacity being far removed. The US deliberately positioned itself as such, but this was not a colonisation of Europe. The US did not command NATO, but shared that role equally with the European members. NATO does not actively recruit members. Any country has to apply to join and must meet fairly stringent standards. Ukraine didn't and wasn't allowed to join. If your argument about NATO expansion eastward towards Russia is valid justification for the invasion of Ukraine, what about Sweden and Finland?

by Colin Maxwell | 29th Aug 26, 4:57pm 1787979461

Anyway, I am sick to death of being insulted by accusations of "blindness" and arguing the toss about this, when my position is already explained in detail within this thread.

Suffice to say that your claim presents a highly sanitised history of Western alignment. NATO was, and remains, an instrument of American geopolitical power projection.

While the sovereign right of nations to choose their security alliances must be upheld, an honest critique must acknowledge that NATO's expansion was an active political choice made by Washington and its allies.

By oversimplifying Ukraine's complex path and pretending the US acts merely as an equal partner among peers, the argument fails to grasp the full, tragic complexity of the systemic collapse of European security.

by Palmtree08 | 26th Aug 26, 3:24pm 1787714667

"no intention of respecting Russia's basic security."

Laughable! That would be why Putin offered Trumps America the Dmitriev $12 trillion economic cooperation package? Because he was concerned about NATO taking his (because he regards Russia as his) resources.