Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
KIWIBANK'S PARENT HAS INTEREST IN TSB
David McLean, chairman of Kiwibank's parent company Kiwi Capital Group told BusinessDesk there's interest in talking to TSB's shareholder the Toi Foundation about "some sort of getting together with TSB." McLean's comments come with Toi facing a legal challenge from the Taranaki Community Accountability Society to the proposed sale of TSB to Heartland Group Holdings, and ahead of Heartland and Kiwibank reporting annual financial results on Thursday.
IT IS TOUGH TO SELL IN WINTER
The high numbers of homes for sale and the lackluster sales volumes are keeping buyers in the driving seat through winter.
NOW TOO OLD TO GROW NATURALLY
At 30 June 2026, the estimated resident population was 5,357,300, up +0.7% in a year. The "natural increase" (births less deaths) was just over half the overall +36,400 expansion but was the smallest annual 'natural" growth since the 1940s. In turn, that is likely because we have aged significantly with the median age of females and males at 39.3 and 37.8 years respectively. Weak births drove a -2.1% decrease in the under-5-year-old age group in the June 2026 quarter.
INFIRM DEMOGRAPHICS
From a year ago, there were 56,268 live births registered (down from 58,365), 38,037 deaths were registered (up from 37,323). The fertility rate was 1.51 births per woman, down from 1.57. The infant mortality rate was 5.33 deaths per 1,000 live births, up from 5.19 per 1,000.
SFO CHASES FRAUD ALLEGATION
The Serious Fraud Office has filed charges against a former council manager and two associates alleging they deceived two councils into awarding contracts valued at more than $12 mln to an engineering firm they controlled. The two victim councils are Kapiti Coast (who referred the matter) and Auckland Council.
NZX50 FIRMS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up +0.4% today and down -0.6% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +4.0% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +6.2%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.1% so far today. a2 Milk, Stride Property, EBOS, and Kathmandu rose offsetting retreats by Briscoes, Meridian, F&P Healthcare, and Air NZ.
LOOKING WEAKER
The latest bid prices on the dairy derivatives market suggests that tomorrow's full dairy auction will be a weak one, suggesting WMP may fall -2.5% from last week's Pulse event, down more than -4% for SMP.
SLIGHTLY LESS GRUMPY
In Australia, their consumer sentiment has improved from low levels but it is still net-negative and still below last year's level at this time. The improvement was driven by mortgage holders who were relieved that the RBA didn't increase rates at its last decision. The survey also shows house price expectations declined as the housing market weakened. But renters are less likely to expect price falls and are more downbeat about home purchases.
WHEN LONG TERM INTEREST RATES TURN UP ...
Rising interest rates, especially long term rates, and especially long term benchmark rates, have the direct effect of pushing down asset prices, especially commodity assets like real estate where investors are motivated by yield. This problem is playing out dramatically in Japan. They have had loose money policies and extremely low benchmark interest rates for a very long time, mostly approaching zero. But now they are rising, are at 2.9% for Japanese government 10 year bonds, but for 30-year JGBs, a key investment target for life insurers, they have now climbed to the 3.9% range. Nikkei estimates these losses could now exceed -¥30 tin (-NZ$320 bln). For perspective, New Zealand's annual nominal GDP is NZ$450 bln, so losses of this size just for a handful of Japanese life insurers may well cause serious heartburn. They should be able to survive - but only so long as their offsetting equity gains keep coming, and that is not guaranteed.
SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates will likely be marginally firmer today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +2 bps at 2.97% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield has risen +2 bps to 5.05% from this time yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.67%. The Japanese 10 year bond is now at 2.94% today and up +1 bp and a new 30+ year high. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.77% and up +2 bps.. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Monday rate up +4 bps at 4.72%.) And the UST 10yr yield is now at 4.73%, up +5 bps from this time yesterday.
EQUITIES BUCK GLOBAL TRENDS
The NZX50 is now up +0.5% from Monday's close. The ASX200 has opened up +0.2%. Tokyo has opened down -1.6%. Hong Kong has opened down -0.6% and Shanghai is down -0.5% at its open. Singapore is down -1.5% however in early Tuesday trade today. Wall Street ended its Monday session with the S&P500 down -0.5% and the Nasdaq composite down -0.3%.
OIL PRICES UP AGAIN
American oil prices are up +US$2.50 from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark is now just under US$85/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$91.50/bbl and also up +US$2.50/bbl.
CARBON PRICE STILL STALLED
We can't find any trades today either, so the price has held at $54/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$5/oz from yesterday, now at US$4399/oz. Silver is holding just under US$65.50/oz.
NZD DIPS
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed against the USD from this time yesterday, still just on 59 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps to just over 82.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 50.9 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 62.5 and down -10 bps.
BITCOIN FIRMS
The bitcoin price is now at US$64,065 and up +1.3% from yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 1.0%.
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36 Comments
By next year 65+ will out number the 0-14 age group. 0-14 peaking in 2024. Not good for government bureaucracy expansion or getting you bed pan changed.
Surely Tesla’s humanoid robots would be able to empty the bed pan by that stage? Probably empty it onto your bed but empty it nonetheless.
That handy robot will also give it a wash in the sink with the rest of the dishes.
Don't panic, I'm told NZ super is affordable even if everyone is over 65. Which may well be the outcome once that 0-14 age group realise they are at the bottom of an upside down pyramid and also realise Australia weren't that stupid.
We are the last generation
Could Sir Michael Cullen be the greatest NZer to have ever lived?
Can you image how much worse it would be without Kiwisaver and the Cullen Fund?
No way that English and Key would have created either of them.
Difficult little personality that one. On one hand justifiably acknowledged as cerebral, on the other, readily stooped into pretty base gutter sniping about political rivals or past benefactors, for instance Merv Wellington or Christs College respectively. But your point is valid, at least amongst all the political duck shoving he stood up and actually did something.
Blessed where those living in the early Ponzi years for they could do nothing wrong , where even a bird shitting on you could possibly ... turn to gold... and be considered lucky.
Now its just bird shit. He was a great man and he took initiative at the right time, he was also lucky.
I would have considered him the best NZer ever if he had set up a NZ version of Freddie Mae or Fanny Mac so that their was a secondary mortgage market and NZ housing lending was not controlled by the big 4 Aussie banks. Underwriting controls could have controlled the latter stages of the Ponzi and we could probably limited lending at 5 times salary. Alas he and 5 houses Helen (or was it really 50 in a blind trust ?) did not see the errors of turning shelter into a financial asset, pricing out many in Labour's working class, and indebting forever those stupid enough to buy at the top.
Great yes, Greatest Yeah nah.
Lets build a bridge.
Fair enough. That labour government also started kiwibank, although that was Andertons baby and Cullan opposed it.
Could you imagine this lot doing anything like that? Or anything at all for that matter? Hipkins might be even worse.
Neither sides realizes the true shit that NZ is in, now we have so much private debt against houses.
Anything to improve the future will likely hurt those with the most debt.
ToP has proposed alternatives, no one else yet. Thats not saying I agree with all of tops ideas,
in moderation a bit of land tax is probably not a bad idea, but how can you justify a tax to force people to subdive who cannot subdivide due to council ? that feels more a pure new tax, not necessarily on wealth, will not a shitty 500k auckland shitbox get 1.75%?
To 'neither side' you can add Jimbo Jones.
Culen was challenged on the Limits to Growth a long time back - by me.
Politely but forcefully disengaged.
All he did was take buying-power from 'now' and put it into shares. Which, like fiat-levered, debt-issued 'money' - were always going to be revalued down in the inevitable reconciliation. I regard him as being spectrum-smart but in generalist terms, dumb. Probably kind, well-meaning and empathetic in the old-labour way, but, well, so was Kirk.
Their approach only worked in a less-populated, less depleted, less polluted world.
PDK do you work? Collect NZ super? If it's pointless you can send that cheque to me if you like.
I do not think most are aware, or wish to be aware. I was looking at NZ household debt to GDP - up from 30% in 1990 to 90% now. It has been at 90% since 2008, the financial crisis. the same trend is apparent in the UK, but there the ratio is now around 65%.
NZ-ers are massively indebted, and as you say, this seems to be related to housing.
On TOP tax, I am looking at that and thinking - maybe a LVT of some sort makes sense, but then I think of the mass of houses I see for sale around $750,000 (outside Auckland etc), that is around $13,000 tax, then you have your rates, maybe $5,000, then utilites, say $5,000, so you are talking over $20,000 just to own and live in the place. UBI will fund that, if you are a resident and living there, if a resident that has been away, you are not entitled to the UBI for five years, and you would have to pay more income tax.
In all though, I agree, NZ has huge problems around debt and housing. We have looking at houses and thinking - how does this pan out? One bought for $1.15m in 2021, now worth $900k tops, two bed, open plan, cold, pretty basic. Another, $850k, a family house, huge, been on the market for a year, empty. Meanwhile, masses of $500 - $600k boxes, basic, basic, cold, no heating other than one heat pump, in need of work. I look at them and think - who is going to buy these if values are flat, let alone down?
"mass of houses I see for sale around $750,000": the Opportunity tax is on the land not the house as far as I understand. They have a good calculator on their website, I was surprised to come out on 'top' even with an Auckland section.
They say they will introduce this over 10 years
how does that work 1/10 of the tax a 1/10 of the UBI
how does that impact current super benefits
having to run the old and new system at the same time negates the savings of less government
it fails over at first inspection
a 0.25% land tax by itself may fly
Give the Left the thin end of the LVT wedge & guess what they'll change & increase it to in a decade with a new way to steal other people's money.
You were?...by who?...or did you simply fail to understand what was explained to you?
lets stop tip toeing around the US30Y at 5.3%
its going up because those buying are losing faith in being willing to invest for less yield. Gold is going up for the same reason
The Fed is losing the room or the room has lost faith in the Fed?
Interest is a financial site and this is the biggest news in decades!!!!!!!!!
This is about to blow apart the last decade of investment in assets at 2-3% now they are basically bankrupt, and professional investors need 5.3% before they hand money to the US Gov, the haha safest in the world. the carry trade is being manipulated by us intervention, if Japan starts selling treasuries the 30Y will be at 7%. Maybe our Belgium friends have already started selling.
what should an investor in you right now wanting a 30 year mortgage in shitty NZD expect 7.3%?
this is about to blow up
Decades?...since the last hegemon lost credibility perhaps....but this time we cant double down.
I have learnt after being on trading floors for many of those decades that their is no limit to the fuckery they will try.
They do indeed try....but they cannot outbid physics
Until we have a crisis big enough to takes peoples eyes off the fuckery
Maybe aliens will appear over Washington / London / Moscow and Beijing
Hard to tell what the rabbit hat trick will be this time, last time it was printing money, maybe this time its negative interest rates?
the issue I think is that global fuckery needs global participation and trump does not seem one to bring countries together to participate in the orgy of screwing over the little guy, indeed many little guys want to see the rich get screwed this time.
the current undertone is everyone wants to F the other
Thats not physics....the system that matters is evolving ...we are not.
Maybe aliens will appear over Washington / London / Moscow and Beijing
LOL. The 'Nerd Reich' takeover seems more plausible;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sg7YNUbaV-8
Printing money again.
There seem to be a lot of major issues all hitting us a once; demographics, energy, wars, tarrifs, extreme speculation, covid debt, AI boom, Trump.
Stagflation is definitely on the cards now, the Fed won't be able to get long term rates down because the market knows they will have to increase the cash rate eventually, and probably in a panic.
yeah and NZ rates are US plus a risk margin....
current us rates
- The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.67% as of August 13, 2026, down from last week when it averaged 6.69%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.58%.
- The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.96%, down from last week when it averaged 6.01%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.71%.
risk margin? Do you mean this 0.04%? it was in the other direction yesterday morning.
The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.77% and up +2 bps.
And the UST 10yr yield is now at 4.73%, up +5 bps
Beers still cold. Just sampled some sirloin from our beasts just in. Excellent. 200kgs of beef @ $10/kg all in. Life’s not so bad.
So glad I am rural
Same, it's a bad day when you have to buy supermarket meat. Free range eggs, Wiltshire sheep and dairy-beef cross. Cholesterol levels good too, thanks to high fiber, low carb diet.
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