Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
TSB has raised some fixed rates today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
TSB has raised one rate and cut two. Heretaunga Building Society moved too. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
A PICK UP
Westpac's retail spending pulse update for July shows retail spending on Westpac issued credit and debit cards took a step higher in July, coinciding with the FIFA World Cup. However, pain at the pump is continuing to squeeze households' spending power. But in July, the decrease in petrol prices allowed a rise in other discretionary spending.
AMBLING ALONG
ANZ's Truckometer tracking isn't especially positive. Their Light Traffic Index rose +1.3% in July but that is only back to roughly where it was a year ago. The Heavy Traffic Index eased -0.2% in the month but is up a stronger +1.6% from a year ago..
NEW FMA CHAIRMAN QUITS TWO BOARDS
New Financial Markets Authority Chairman James Miller is standing down as a director of both Vista Group and Ryman Healthcare to free up more time for his role at the FMA.
NZX50 DIPS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was down -0.3% today, and down -0.4% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +2.5% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +7.3%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.7% so far today. Gentrack, Vector, Mercury, Air NZ and Ryman are the main decliners; while Serko, Heartland, and Stride Property lead the mixed session
RAISING $100 MLN-PLUS
Westpac NZ has launched a new $100 mln five year bond, that allows them to accept unlimited oversubscriptions (at their discretion). They are expecting demand to be heavy enough that they can pay a margin over swap of only about 70 bps. It closes Thursday, 10:30am.
TRANSITION BLESSED
On 12 June 2026, ANZ NZ announced that Ben Kelleher would replace Antonia Watson as CEO and Group Executive, subject to non-objection from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The RBNZ confirmed today they have no objection. Kelleher will commence as ANZ NZ CEO and Group Executive on 1 October 2026.
S&P IS A BELIEVER
S&P Global Ratings says they now expect New Zealand's economy to grow faster in 2026 and 2027 due to rising domestic confidence. their forecasts are +2.4% for 2026 and +2.5% for 2027, about half a percentage point stronger for both. "High frequency indicators point to improving domestic demand, and rising consumer and investor confidence. In particular, growth in business investment has been much better than we initially thought and is carrying growing momentum into the second half of this year," said Vincent Conti, head of macroeconomic modelling at S&P Global Ratings. (link requires sign in.)
"EXPLAIN YOURSELF"
In Australia, regulator ASIC has issued a warning about 'fast-rising' car insurance premiums. ASIC claims car insurance premiums are 'surging' and insurers are opaque about the reasons when communicating with customers. They are baffled why consumers aren't switching even though 'negotiating works'.
STATIC BUT NEGATIVE
In Australia, the July NAB business confidence survey remained weak and static at -6 points, while business conditions edged up by 1 point to +4 points, staying below the long-term average of +7.
SWAP RATES FIRMER
Wholesale swap rates may be firmer today on global risk trends. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.95% on Monday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is up +3 bps at 5.01%. The China 10 year bond rate is holding at 1.70%. The Japanese 10 year bond is still at 2.80% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.72% and dipping -1 bp. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Monday rate down -4 bps at 4.67%.) But the UST 10yr yield is up +4 bps at 4.72%.
EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is now down -0.2%. The ASX200 has opened its Tuesday trade up +0.3%. Tokyo has opened up +2.1%. Hong Kong has opened down -0.5% and Shanghai is down -0.1% at its open. Singapore is up +0.9% in early Tuesday trade today. Wall Street ended its Monday trade with the S&P500 down -0.1% rise at its open, and the Nasdaq down -0.3%.
OIL PRICES RISE NOTABLY
American oil prices have risen +US$4 from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark is now just on US$82.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$88/bbl and up +US$3.50.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
There have been very few trades today and the price is holding at $54/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD RISING
In early Asian trade, gold is up +US$94/oz from this morning, now at US$4413/oz. Silver is up +US$2.50 at just under US$66/oz.
NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged against the USD from yesterday at this time, still jost over 58.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 to 83.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +10 bps at 51 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just under 62.5 and little-changed.
BITCOIN LOWER
The bitcoin price is now at US$63,984 and down -1.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 1.2%.
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21 Comments
Fascinating stuff on how people are deceived by official statistics that the ruling elite uses to suggest they're solving issues. Aussie's home ownership rate counts homes, not people. It's all to do with how the question is posed in census. Same issue exists in the U.S. Home ownership for younger people is far worse (up to 17 ppts) than any time post-WWII.
When we hear the words home ownership rate, we assume it means the share of Australians who own a home.
Most of us have that wrong, and I did too until recently. The rate counts buildings, not people. And the people locked out of ownership are propping up the very number that says the market is fine. That is a large part of why change has been so hard to win. You cannot build political urgency on a statistic that hides the problem.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/misinterpretations-census-homeownership-…
Wow. What an incredibly cynical way to manipulate statistics.
Different commenters on here including myself have been pointing this out in NZ stats for many years. Last I remember non home owning adults in NZ are in the majority, around 52%
RBA holds OCR at 4.35%
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-08-11/rba-interest-rates-august-2026/1…
Loving my Oz TD at 4.75/3m
Erica pm
mitchel dep pm
bishop finance
where does brown go ?
P-trap, gully, sewer, outfall.
Unless it's Wellington, where a step or two are omitted.
Im Not sure Erica has PM aspirations. Bishop would be the safe bet with her as deputy. Simeon can go back to preaching to his flock.
Erica & Mitchell could win the election.
But the Nats won't do that because the NACO - Nats always chicken out (I hope I'm wrong).
They can't solve the global wave breaking on them.
What amazes me, is the number of people avoiding addressing the wave, by fixating on minutiae like who might lead a yesterday-focused party.
When the ship is going down with no lifeboats you may as well watch the feature film
You must be fun at parties
Lol....rarely so im told, but every once in a while.....
Willis seems to me to be the person with the most to gain and lose
She has had plenty of opportunity to advance her prospects given her prime portfolio. But she hasn’t. Again there seems to be just too much corporate world look to her make up, and not all that dissimilar characteristics to the mother of all budgets Richardson. National under Key ended up losing contact with the people on the street so to speak, and they have not regained that factor. Whoever comes forward now had better be aware that needs to be addressed or they will continue to wallow.
List only
If Luxon goes I wonder what will happen with the Botany seat. Might be too late to replace him ?
He stands and a bi election later
I think Nats need a female leader here to win female votes, I cannot see mitch being fin min maybe Chris Bishop maybe Simeon Brown
neither could be worse then Willis
According to Roy Morgan polls, its only the child bearing age (18-49) female vote thats overwhelming Left throughout the last 3 yrs (sad Jacinda fangirls? Not trusting Luxon / Nats on abortion?). All other demographics consistently Right leaning.
then an easy win for ES
Doubtful, even though it needs to be, that it will be easy for any contender given the recent parades of ill-tempered succession. Bridges ousted English and sent Joyce packing. Muller was propelled beyond himself to oust Bridges. Then Collins took the hospital pass and self defeated by an attempt to stymie Bridges, and then was defeated by Luxon who saw off Bridges.. No sirree, leaders don’t come and go at National in much of an orderly fashion.
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