A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; less mortgage interest paid, dairy prices soft, Queenstown rising, Aussie inflation pressure eases, swaps soft, NZX firm, NZD firm, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today. All current mortgage rates are here. And note, you can compare mortgage offers with our unique calculator that takes into account other costs and cashback incentives, here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here either Also we have some analysis on how household deposits are changing. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

BUSINESS RATE CHANGES
Business base rates are all rising about now, now that the notice period from the last OCR-induced change has arrived. For example, ANZ is increasing its Working Capital Base Rate +25 bps to 11.00% effective today. Remember, these are base rates; risk premiums apply on top (often 1-4%) plus 'management fees" (often about 1.5%). Details here. (Households with mortgages get a great interest rate deal compared to businesses.)

PAYING LESS MORTGAGE INTEREST
The latest RBNZ reconciliation of all banks' mortgage books shows that they totaled almost $400 bln as at June, 2026. Meanwhile mortgage interest paid in Q2-2026 was $4.8 bln, less than the $5.4 bln in Q2-2025. For the year to June, borrowers paid $19.8 bln, down from $22.6 bln in the prior equivalent year. This is the least since the end of 2024 and given that mortgage rates are rising again, it may be a turning point higher.

SMALL DIP
At the overnight dairy Pulse auction, prices achieved were a bit more than -1% lower than the prior week's full auction in USD, but a bit less than that in NZD.

SHIFTING TO THE MOUNTAINS
StatsNZ released some interesting population data about Otago today. They pointed out that in 25 years Queenstown-Lakes and Central Otago districts will be home to 40% of the province's population, nearly rivaling Dunedin. That will be a big shift from Dunedin's current 52% and Queenstown's 21%. And in turn that is a big shift the 64% who lived in Dunedin in 1996.

NZX50 RISES
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index was up +1.0% today, and up +1.7% for the past 5 trading sessions. It is up +4.8% from six months ago. From a year ago it is now up +8.2%. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +2.2% so far today. Serko, EBOS, Vulcan Steel and F&P Healthcare rally while Meridian, Briscoes, Contact and Port of Tauranga retreat

A 22 YEAR RECORD
The RBNZ's foreign currency intervention capacity rose more than +$1 bln in June from May, bolstered by them spending $572 mln to buy NZD. That $572 mln purchased was the most for any month since this disclosure started in 2004.

TSB SALE OPPONENTS GETTING INDEPENDENT REPORT ON PROPOSED DEAL
The Taranaki Community Accountability Society Incorporated, established in June to protect the community's interest in TSB Bank and ensure compliance with its shareholder the Toi Foundation's Trust Deed, has hired Northington Partners to report on the proposed takeover of TSB by Heartland. On June 2, Heartland Group Holdings announced it had signed a deal with the Toi Foundation to buy TSB in a deal valued at $620 mln.

SIMON UPTON CALLS FOR BETTER ENVIRONMENTAL DATA
Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment Simon Upton is calling for better data on the environment. In a new report Upton says a lack of accessible environmental information is impeding better environmental management and adding costs to the system. He says environmental information is collected in a fragmented way by a wide range of public and private organisations. Upton says he has been drawing attention to the "often-threadbare state of environmental information" for almost nine years, with almost every investigation he has undertaken hampered by a lack of reliable information. "It’s hard to make judgements – or run your business – if you lack key facts," Upton says.

PRESSURE EASES
In Australia, June CPI inflation came in at 3.8%, and less than the 4.0% expected. It was kept up by the expiry of household energy support measures, but the falls in fuel costs more than offset that. More here. Will this deter the RBA from moving their policy rate on August 11? It may do, but inflation expectations remain very high. Some analysts now expect a hawkish hold. The lower CPI has hit the AUD hard today, presumably because FX markets no longer see higher interest rates imminently.

RISING CREDIT RISK
The global credit risk environment has evolved heading into 2H26 but continues to be driven by two main sources of short-term risk, according to Fitch Ratings: rising vulnerability to an AI-related market correction and persistent geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. This is on top of a broader context of slowing US consumer momentum, high inflation risks stemming from the 2Q energy shock and structural public finance pressures limiting the ability to respond to risk events.

SWAP RATES EASE
Wholesale swap rates may have retreated somewhat today. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was up +1 bp at 2.92% on Tuesday. Today, the Australian 10 year bond yield is unchanged from yesterday at 5.02%. The China 10 year bond rate has held at 1.72%. The Japanese 10 year bond is also little-changed at 2.77% today. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.76%, and up 2 bps from this time yesterday. (The RBNZ data is now 'prior day' with the Tuesday rate up +1 bp at 4.72%.) The UST 10yr yield is down another -4 bps at 4.63%.

EQUITIES MIXED
The local equity market is slightly softer since 3pm - and now up +0.7%. Meanwhile, the ASX200 is has risen +1.0% liking the idea of their rates on hold. Tokyo has opened down another -1.1%. Hong Kong is up +1.6% but Shanghai is down -0.4% at its open today. Singapore is up +0.5% at its open. Wall Street was up a minor +0.2% in Tuesday trade on the S&P500 with the Nasdaq down another -0.2%.

OIL PRICES TURN UP
American oil prices have risen +US$2 on a flare-up in the Persian Gulf and from this time yesterday with the WTI benchmark is now just on US$82.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is just on US$87.50/bbl and up +US$1. Iran was annoyed Trump claimed talks were taking place when they weren't, so they reinforced their point. Then the US and Saudi Arabia attacked Iran-linked forces in Iraq. And the Houthis attacked two Saudi tankers off Yemen. This mess isn't going away.

CARBON PRICE LITTLE-CHANGED
There have been very few trades so far again today and the price has dipped slightly to $55.50/NZU. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD SOFTISH
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$18/oz from this time yesterday, now at US$4027/oz. Silver is now just on US$57.50/oz and little-changed from yesterday.

NZD FIRM, ESPECIALLY AGAINST THE AUD
The Kiwi dollar is +10 bps firmer against the USD from this time yesterday, now at just on 57.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +70 bps at 83.2 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.7 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now just over 61.7 and up +10 bps.

BITCOIN FIRMISH
The bitcoin price is now at US$63,825 and up +1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been low at just on +/- 0.9%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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