Breakfast briefing: Forced distortions a new economic threat

Economy / news

Trump bluster sets new low tone, raises risks; eyes on expected Japanese rate hike; China bolsters equity demand; freight rates fall sharply; Turkey cuts rates hard again; UST 10yr at 4.65%; gold and oil down; NZ$1 = 56.8 USc; TWI = 67.2

24th Jan 25, 7:30am by David Chaston

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news we are living in a new world of imposed distortions. Ethical politics or business dealing is out the window. Trust is being replaced by force. It is hard to see how this will end well. After all, business relies on trust, honesty and integrity. Without it, why would you make a deal? The result can only be higher risk premiums.

First, the annual Davos meetings are underway, and today they were dominated by US Presidential bluster where we claimed he would force interest rates down, force the oil price down, and force other countries to "put America First". He also threatened any country who challenged the American FANGs with taxes on their activities in their own countries. Billionaires don't see the need to pay taxes - their fair share, or any share - to anyone.

US jobless claims fell back sharply from last week's big seasonal increase. But the fall was not as much as seasonal factors would have anticipated. On a seasonally-adjusted basis they rose. There are now 2.24 mln people on these benefits, which is actually the highest since the last Trump Administration. (Interestingly, the new US-DOL leadership 'hid' this data, shifting it to a 'new' location.)

In the regions, the December factory survey from the Kansas City Fed revealed a further contraction. New order levels were low, and despite improved manager sentiment, they actually don't expect new order levels to rise much.

In Canada, retail sales rose much more than expected in December, their best December rise since 2019, and the biggest any-month gain since May.

Japan said its exports rose +2.8% in December from a year ago, meaning that eleven of the past twelve months recorded export growth. Only nine of the past twelve recorded import growth.

And all eyes turn to the Bank of Japan and their expected +25 bps rate hike, later today.

A rise in South Korean business sentiment in January comes after authorities there reported a quite soft Q4-2024 GDP growth outcome.

Singapore's CPI inflation was up +1.6% in December, the same as November and slightly more than the +1.5% expected.

Taiwanese retail sales rose +2.9% in December with a modest performance. But Taiwanese industrial production surged +20% in December from the same month a year ago which itself wasn't especially soft.

In China, they are directing insurers to buy equities, a move designed to put a floor under the pressure on those markets.

After 'peaking' in October at their long-run average, the EU consumer sentiment survey has slipped to be more net-negative since. But the latest January 2025 survey essentially held the December level to be almost 2 percentage points better than year-ago levels.

In Turkey, their central bank claimed overnight that inflation there is under control at 44% and heading in the right direction. So it cut 2.5% from its policy interest rate taking that benchmark down to 45%.

Driven by rates out of China, container shipping freight rates fell a sharpish -11% last week, although they are still 140% higher than pre-pandemic levels. The Baltic Dry index for bulk cargoes fell a sharp -16% in the past week, now at the very lower end of its long-run average level since 1969.

The UST 10yr yield is up at 4.65% with a +4 bps rise from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is more positive at +36 bps. Their 1-5 curve is also more positive at +26 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve has also steepened, now to +31 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today over 4.55% and up another +3 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 1.67% and up +2 bps. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.66% and down -1 bp.

Wall Street was little-changed in Thursday trade, up +0.3% on the S&P500. Overnight European markets were up +0.7% except London which was up +0.2%. Yesterday, Tokyo rose +0.8%, Hong Kong fell another -0.4%, but Shanghai rose +0.5%. Singapore rose +0.7%. The ASX200 fell -0.7% in its Thursday trade while the NZX50 rose +0.2%.

The price of gold will start today at US$2757/oz and down -US$1 from yesterday.

Oil prices are down -US$1 at just over US$75.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now under US$78.50.

The Kiwi dollar is now on 56.8 USc and up +20 bps from this time yesterday and more than a one month high. Against the Aussie we basically unchanged at 90.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 54.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 67.2 and also essentially unchanged from yesterday. A fall against the Yen offset the USD rise.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$106,275 and up +2.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.8%.

Monday is the Auckland Anniversary holiday, and Australia Day, so the newsflow will be light. But we will have continuing regular service on Monday.

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85 Comments

by IT GUY | 24th Jan 25, 7:43am 1737657832

Noting the lower net migration numbers from yesterday, this seems logical, less migrants viewing NZ as a great place to come to, and more locals bailing to what looks like a greener pastures.

Interesting that china is telling insurers to invest in equities to try and put a floor under the stock market, I suggest this kick the can down the road may halt the bleeding but eventually you will reach the can, and then the insurance industry will need a rescue package.

I am hearing stories of states? in china holding rich visitors hostage and extracting payments for relaese, so desperate for funds as no land sales are happening for revenues..

by Foxglove. | 24th Jan 25, 7:53am 1737658431

Wonder why the US-DOL would see fit to hide the latest jobless figures when the new administration is only days old? Given the penchant in US politics for the full on blame game this was likely ammo especially by adding a claim that it had been tracking well four years earlier?

by Kate | 24th Jan 25, 8:10am 1737659454

The full Davos speech if you can stomach it;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6yYHUC_134

The comments stream is quite entertaining.

by Frank. | 24th Jan 25, 8:48am 1737661726

Let go of the hate, embrace the love.

by Baywatch | 24th Jan 25, 9:00am 1737662407

Lol - heading to Hollywood frankie?

A cult is described as a system or group of people who practice excessive devotion to a figure, object, or belief system. Its characteristics include having a leader that preaches an explicit belief system or ideology and who is followed by unquestioning believers

by kiwikidsnz | 24th Jan 25, 9:05am 1737662719

"Be kind"

by Baywatch | 24th Jan 25, 9:12am 1737663173

Will send you a box Kiwi as you are such a fan - Former PM Dame Jacinda Ardern’s book, A Different Kind of Power, out in June

Luxy writing his one as we speak - Flounder under pressure - should be a top seller

by Brocky | 24th Jan 25, 9:15am 1737663312

Can you send me one also? I'm out of toilet paper.

by Baywatch | 24th Jan 25, 9:25am 1737663938

Will do - I guess you are spending quite some time in there now (nice and cool)

by Brocky | 24th Jan 25, 9:39am 1737664745

You seem quite enthusiastic about temperature Aaron. I'm heading away on a snow vacation shortly - would you like a daily update on the weather conditions?

by Baywatch | 24th Jan 25, 1:28pm 1737678527

Just post daily on Tik Tok ..and Insta, plus facebook...

by interesting1234 | 24th Jan 25, 1:55pm 1737680118

like and subscribe

by Pa1nter | 24th Jan 25, 11:16am 1737670599

Dame Jacinda Ardern’s book, A Different Kind of Power

Ghandi was a different kind of power.

Jacinda was same old, same old, wearing a cloak of virtuosity.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 24th Jan 25, 11:41am 1737672077

virtuosity = great skill in music or another artistic pursuit.

You meant virtue, right?

Can you imagine Trump, Putin, Key, Netanyahu, etc. ever being claimed to be thus? Ergo, perhaps not so much the "same old, same old"?

Now Luxy, wearing the cloak of "successful businessman", is so "same old, same old" that it's a cleché, and a tired one at that.

by Pa1nter | 24th Jan 25, 12:43pm 1737675825

Can you imagine Trump, Putin, Key, Netanyahu, etc. ever being claimed to be thus?

They're all going to promote themselves as being of virtue. Not in such a deliberate way as Jacinda's kindness rhetoric, but it's all much the same. The disconnect by many of signalling ones virtue, vs. their actual behaviour, and conduct of character, is quite large. Someone doing it at high frequency or volume, should be viewed with a decent level of suspicion.

Actual virtue is self evident, it doesn't need advertising.

by the Joneses | 24th Jan 25, 1:54pm 1737680084

In which way was Jacinda not acting kind? Honest question.

Asking people to be kind to each other in a time of stress, seems pretty normal to me. It was the biggest national emergency in living memory.

by interesting1234 | 24th Jan 25, 2:06pm 1737680814

It was the facade of being kind, while simultaneously endorsing mandatory vaccinations to be in the workplace and draconian laws restricting the movement of citizens by virtue of vaccination status, and passing extraordinary laws allowing the likes of police to break into a home if they suspected someone had breached lockdown. All show, but in the background, devious and overreaching. Actions speak louder than words, and in this regard she as the poster child for being a fraud.

by HouseMouse | 24th Jan 25, 2:21pm 1737681683

It was generally very very unkind to younger people

by Palmtree08 | 24th Jan 25, 3:53pm 1737687205

"simultaneously endorsing mandatory vaccinations"

Well it was all about pressure from the "back on track" crowd to get the human super organism stripping NZ of its resources and piling up the waste again. The time between lock down and the vaccine was the most peaceful and community cohesive period in living memory!

by Pa1nter | 24th Jan 25, 2:50pm 1737683436

In which way was Jacinda not acting kind? Honest question.

In which way were Jacinda's actions or outcomes significantly kinder than the norm? Did she house more people? Heal more people? Improve the lot of more people?

The outcomes are grossly disproportionate to the amount of kindness being promoted.

Not saying it's definitely relevant in her instance, but there's something disingenuous about leading with your virtues. "If you're against me, you must be against kindness. This is so, because we both came to an understanding that I'm all about kindness. When I told you".

by Chaosinflesh | 24th Jan 25, 3:49pm 1737686944

"We're not going to force people to be vaccinated"....

But you won't be allowed to work to feed yourselves and your family.

by Zwifter | 24th Jan 25, 4:08pm 1737688080

People with commitments were basically forced to take it. Very few were in my position where I happily gave it the middle finger but some had high principals and took a pretty hard financial hit not taking it and quit their jobs.

by Brocky | 24th Jan 25, 9:06am 1737662792

What are the difficult parts to stomach?

by redcows1 | 24th Jan 25, 9:25am 1737663940

Probably the very sight of a bunch of rich pr#$s practicing exactly the opposite of their preaching . Bunch of non working parasites.

by blobbles | 24th Jan 25, 10:18am 1737667119

Holy cow, this is fantasy land stuff, he really is completely detached from reality

by ChrisOfNoFame | 24th Jan 25, 8:58am 1737662322

Who remembers the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere from fifth form history?

And now we have Trumponomics wanting to do the same? The population of the USA is some 350 million whereas the rest of world is quite a bit larger. For Trumponomics to function, it is going to require a huge investment in logistics assets with a huge corresponding - and ongoing - hit to the environment moving stuff around.

I don't see America being 'great' if our world heats up faster and mass migration ensues as people have to move from regions that were once arable but have now become so arid nothing much will grow. And many areas of the USA are in this category.

If people in developed countries think they have immigration problems now, mainly from places already affected by global warming like the middle east, africa, mexico etc, then they ain't seen nothing yet.

But don't worry. There aren't many billionaires and they can go live wherever they like because governments fawn over these scoundrels. Never in human history have so few been able to privatize such massive gains while socializing indescribable suffering and losses.

by Foxglove. | 24th Jan 25, 9:21am 1737663709

Again it seems Trump is of the fixed opinion that the world needs the USA more so than the other way round. Except of course there is stuff, minerals & other raw material, that the USA has never had. Interesting though that there is a notion that Trump is heading policy towards the individual states taking more care of themselves at the expense of federal assistance, for instance natural disasters, floods, fires you name it. Possibly that could be considered within the context of size where as a matter of comparison ten states each have economies larger than or similar to Russia. How though that though would be “adjusted” within the federal tax take is not clear.

by agnostium | 24th Jan 25, 10:31am 1737667886

Trump is heading policy towards the individual states taking more care of themselves at the expense of federal assistance

No he's not. He's just talking shit as he always does. Ignore what he says it's undecipherable because he doesn't actually have any coherent policy. Look instead at what actually gets passed by congress and signed off. It's almost the exact opposite of half the stuff he spouts.

by Kate | 24th Jan 25, 3:19pm 1737685165

More than half his Executive Orders are not legally-binding orders but rather they are 'wishful thinking' proclamations.

That's the strategy - flood the zone.

by Foxglove. | 24th Jan 25, 3:36pm 1737686188

As I suggested the other day just like the chaff, the aluminium strips WW2 bombers clouded the sky with to confuse the radar, throw off the interceptor fighters and conceal the intended target.

by RickStrauss | 24th Jan 25, 4:31pm 1737689501

Distract from the looting for self and donors

by murray86 | 24th Jan 25, 9:24am 1737663859

The pathetic bit about Trumps actions and claims are that it is clear that he does not understand how and why America was considered "great" post WW2. It did that by mostly working with the western world, not against it. True its politics required it to have enemies and the USSR and China seemed keen to fill those squares, and they did bully a lot of smaller countries due to their anti-communist phobia (which still lingers in their anti-socialism rhetoric), but for the majority they presented opportunities and often partnership.

His current path is isolationism which will more likely cripple the US as other countries build their own manufacturing to avoid buying from the US. Trade blocks will be created without them and they will find they can't bully their way in without significant concessions. NZ should be reconsidering some of its treaties with the US to see how they will fare under the Trump administration. In the end it might all come down to their military posture and how that pans out.

by Foxglove. | 24th Jan 25, 9:51am 1737665473

The international expansion, globalisation if you like, commenced by Reagan & Bush senior was partly aimed at embracing China and thereby undercutting the Soviet Union and it succeeded somewhat there. The accompanying exploitation of Chinese manufacturing, its scale, prowess and cheapness was though at the expense of the equivalent sectors in the USA itself. Which in a way is ironic because all that international outgoing support post WW2 had bolstered the same. Trump now seeks to turn back the tide. Even old King Canute knew he couldn’t do that.

by interesting1234 | 24th Jan 25, 12:21pm 1737674515

The accompanying exploitation of Chinese manufacturing, its scale, prowess and cheapness was though at the expense of the equivalent sectors in the USA itself.

Like the rest of the western hemisphere, it seemed like an achievement at the time to offshore production to lower costs and afford a better standard of living while corporations reaped larger profits, until only decades on they realised that all of that money funneled to China was making them a force to be reckoned with that could compete at a level of the USA. Now they think they can claw everything back to the homeland, but it comes at great cost to do so, and large increase in production cost of material goods which the average punter likely wouldn't be willing or able to pay for at scale to keep said production profitable without gracious government subsidization.

by He Kahukura | 24th Jan 25, 12:53pm 1737676415

A major issue for the Trump cabinet is that there is no knowledge about how to create all this so called industrialisation to MAGA. That was WW II stuff and look how long that took to get going. That group of industrialists are long gone. The current rich cohort have little idea how their inherited wealth came into being. How to use their wealth productively is beyond them and if they do manage to get a half hearted attempt going and making stuff there will be no workers to make it anyway.

by interesting1234 | 24th Jan 25, 2:11pm 1737681073

Hmm agreed. Trump raves about free market and capitalism while crowing from an inherited wealth from his father, which was built on the back of high taxation post WWII and mainly the deregulation that followed their golden years. I can't see people like this in the elite club being a fan of state or federal subsidy to set up production on-shore unless they themselves benefit from it (which will be the likely scenario, wink wink have this lucrative govt contract mate).

by Foxglove. | 24th Jan 25, 2:12pm 1737681127

The USA did gear up for WW2 remarkably quickly once they started up in earnest. The liberty ships for example plus a staggering number of aircraft carriers. Suggest V D Hanson “The Second World Wars” that details all of that. But agree it’s hard to see today such as the Packard factory being converted virtually overnight to production of Rolls Royce Merlin engines.Just the shambles that the once world leading Boeing group has turned itself into is fairly indicative.

by profile | 24th Jan 25, 2:16pm 1737681394

"For every 10% increase in solar and wind share, the electricity cost increases by more than 5 cents a kilowatt-hour.

...That means we’re paying for two power systems: renewables and backup. Moreover, as fossil fuels are used less, those power sources need to earn their capital costs back in fewer hours, leading to even more expensive power.

One study shows that in China the real cost of solar power on average is twice as high as that of coal. Similarly, a peer-reviewed study of Germany and Texas shows that solar and wind are many times more expensive than fossil fuels. Germany, the U.K., Spain, and Denmark, all of which increasingly rely on solar and wind power, have some of the world’s most expensive electricity.

The International Energy Agency’s latest data (from 2022) on solar and wind power generation costs and consumption across nearly 70 countries shows a clear correlation between more solar and wind and higher average household and industry energy prices."

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/green-electricity-costs-a-bundle-wind-solar…

by solardb | 24th Jan 25, 9:47am 1737665265

Links don't work.

by profile | 24th Jan 25, 2:18pm 1737681514

edited the link chap. My humble apologies - big oil doesn't pay enough to get it perfect every time. There was enough info in the link to google it?!

by murray86 | 24th Jan 25, 9:50am 1737665422

That's the problem - what's the solution?

I note Bill Gates first molten salt reactor is progressing, albeit foundations only so far - https://newatlas.com/energy/molten-salt-nuclear/.

China have approved a very large dam in Tibet that will produce 300 TWH, three time the Three gorges Dam. (https://newatlas.com/energy/yarlung-tsangpo-hydroelectric-project-china/) Can't see the Greenies let NZ do another dam anytime soon.

by solardb | 24th Jan 25, 10:12am 1737666744

Problem is it's not true, another one of profiles and Co's faulty links.

Still waiting for the whale song Oia request proof.

by kiwikidsnz | 24th Jan 25, 12:25pm 1737674711

Not sure if this cost summary is what you mean, link provided yesterday. If you're looking for something else you could always ask the TPU or MBIE.

https://assets.nationbuilder.com/taxpayers/pages/13864/attachments/orig…;

Noting also that the MSM are completely ignoring this as usual.

by solardb | 24th Jan 25, 12:38pm 1737675524

They say it is a link to a Oia request, but there is no sign of any request to land care or mbie.

FYI.org.nz

by Baywatch | 24th Jan 25, 10:39am 1737668358

And dams are so cheap to build ..?

$211 million

Waimea Water Limited (WWL) announced on Monday that the final cost of the controversial dam is $211 million, double the $104.5 million projected cost when the Tasman District Council voted to go ahead with the project in 2018, and nearly three times the $75.9 million price it consulted on in 2017

by redcows1 | 24th Jan 25, 11:01am 1737669675

That's not even a decent example, not least because its not even a hydroelectric dam .

by blobbles | 24th Jan 25, 11:31am 1737671491

It does have the potential to be one, they have a hydro channel built in (though wouldn't provide heaps of energy).

But infra costs pre-covid to post covid almost doubled everywhere, so its not a great example.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 24th Jan 25, 12:36pm 1737675374

"And dams are so cheap to build ..?"

Over their entire productive lifetime? Yup. They are cheap. Even cheaper if carbon was priced at it's real cost.

And profile's spin that having old, fossil fuel burning plant on standby - so it costs more when it must be started up - is pure hokum.

Why? Because dams are also batteries in that they store energy that can be 'fired up' in minutes without destroying our planet.

by powerdownkiwi | 24th Jan 25, 3:48pm 1737686923

The above comment was incorrect (the poster has consistently chosen not to get informed, but chooses to opine).

Dams are made of concrete - which produces a shit-ton of C02. They also often induce methane, for obvious reasons.

And it's not 'carbon cost'' - there is no such animal. Either carbon is emitted, or it isn't. Price is irrelevant, and there is no equivalent energy form to fossil, in EROEI terms.

Water-at-height is indeed the most benign battery - but it is unrealistic to think it can replace fossil storage like-for-like. That was explained clearly, in a chosenly-avoided link I sent the poster. Others need to know this, when reading his posits.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 24th Jan 25, 7:51pm 1737701508

Still not producing any alternatives, ay PDK.

Just 'prepare for the Rapture'? Take your god and foxtrot oscar.

by redheadonist | 24th Jan 25, 6:34pm 1737696852

You place a large responsibility on one person to provide solutions. What is yours?

by ChrisOfNoFame | 24th Jan 25, 7:50pm 1737701452

Are you serious?

I've posted one above. And post others frequently.

There is no 'one solution'. It's a collection of changed human behaviors. For example, I have posted that women's education and the removal of religious doctrine are both part of the solution. That's why PDK attacks every suggestion I make. His religious beliefs become a victim in saving ourselves and our planet.

PDK, on the other hand, posts nothing except that fact we're all doomed and should embrace our deaths and gods. Oh. And how wrong I must be presenting, any part, of any solution.

by upquark | 24th Jan 25, 10:48am 1737668896

Chinese 'artificial sun' sets a record towards fusion power generation

by solardb | 24th Jan 25, 11:59am 1737673161

The Tibet dam has major implications for India and Bangladesh downstream.

In NZ, what we need is storage. Most of our dams are run of the river, the north island ones have virtually no storage. The south island ones have some storage, especially if you include the snow pack at the start of summer.

Any future dams need off river storage, in conjunction with pumped storage.

Having said that, I don't really see a problem with the West Coast proposed hydro scheme, which the local greens are opposed too. Need to pick our fights I think, not oppose everything.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 24th Jan 25, 12:39pm 1737675593

"Most of our dams are run of the river, the north island ones have virtually no storage. "

Say what? Lake Taupo is the storage for many of these 'run of the river' dams.

by Chaosinflesh | 24th Jan 25, 12:50pm 1737676215

Someone more knowledgeable feel free to reply:

As I understand it, a considerable problem that has emerged in the last 20-30 years on the Waikato is not the storage capacity, but the significant increase in water use by the nearby dairy industry.

by mfd | 24th Jan 25, 12:52pm 1737676347

In terms of practical storage capacity it's pretty small.

https://www.transpower.co.nz/system-operator/notices-and-reporting/week…

North Island storage capacity topping at about 500 GWh vs nearly 4,000 GWh in the South Island. Obviously the lake itself is massive, but it's probably unpalatable to have the lake shore move regularly by several kilometers if more storage is tapped.

I think this is also the time for one of us to mention the disgrace of the current coalition scrapping the NZ battery project just before it reported its recommendations on how best to increase storage or otherwise reduce the dry year problem.

by solardb | 24th Jan 25, 1:17pm 1737677869

Lake taupo is storage for the Waikato river, but quite restrained in allowable level variation.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 24th Jan 25, 2:18pm 1737681529

"but quite restrained in allowable level variation."

Agreed. Both yourself and mfd make this point.

So why does this limit exist? When was it put in place? What are the consequences of relaxing the limits? Is a national resource being held to ransom by local interests? And let's be clear - before the dams and weirs Taupo went up and down in a range far, far greater than is allowed today.

Maybe if the limits were relaxed, greenies would front up to the necessity of more dams in other places?

by solardb | 24th Jan 25, 3:50pm 1737687012

I think it's more lake front property owners that are making all the noise about it, I'm sure it quite happily flooded the surrounding areas before property became the number one consideration.

by Palmtree08 | 24th Jan 25, 4:06pm 1737687996

Degrowth is the answer. The yeasty cult in power make the energy situation increasingly difficult to balance.

by M0ralHazard | 24th Jan 25, 10:47am 1737668825

Is that applicable in NZ where Hydro and Geothermal could be used to buffer a large portion of Renewables?

by redcows1 | 24th Jan 25, 11:01am 1737669708

No it's not.

by bender | 24th Jan 25, 11:07am 1737670047

But the power cos will quote it when raising rates again.

by KH | 24th Jan 25, 1:39pm 1737679168

Expensive power? Well maybe if you are buying it in. From remote generation which includes solar etc.

But but but. If it's your own solar, off your roof, it's cheap cheap.

So why not.

by kraken | 24th Jan 25, 9:51am 1737665460

Beautiful, pull up a chart of the Japanese 2y and 10y and watch those yields climb. End of an era.

Those at Davos will be rubbing their hands together like Mr. Burns, imagining all the dirt-cheap assets they'll scoop up after the debt market goes bust.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 24th Jan 25, 11:29am 1737671364

"pull up a chart of the Japanese 2y and 10y" ... Perhaps you could post a link?

by kraken | 24th Jan 25, 12:42pm 1737675746

Zoom out to see the previous 40 years. The whole curve is selling off. End of the yen carry trade. BOJ has to choose between saving their debt or saving their currency.

https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/government-bond-yield

by nickb | 24th Jan 25, 9:54am 1737665644

Reiterating what I think must be a very important concept for the economy focussed.

https://www.britannica.com/science/confirmation-bias

The very familiar but often ignored concept of <i>confirmation bias which threatens flexible thought and adaptation to changing conditions.</i>

As for the type of people that go to Davos- not my President, not my Prime Minister in fact for most of them, <i>no-one did or would vote for them</i>.Doesn’t mean I wouldn’t listen but scepticism required. Self interest and ego settings at maximum. World government types- no rabbit hole required.

by Hamish | 24th Jan 25, 10:00am 1737666051

That soil moisture chart!

by solardb | 24th Jan 25, 10:44am 1737668667

Yeah , good dose of rain but a week of wind to blow it all out of the plants.

Could get worst with no sign of any tropical activity coming down.

Of course, as soon as I say that....

by General Comment | 24th Jan 25, 11:23am 1737671031

Metservice says rain is 2 days away. Always 2 days away. I'm sure they're just doing it for the clicks.

by solardb | 24th Jan 25, 11:44am 1737672299

Weatherwatch.co.nz. Phil Duncan is honest, and their rain forecasts are the most accurate in NZ.

by jimmyH | 24th Jan 25, 12:19pm 1737674396

Landscaper here, 5 rain out days predicted by met service, for Auckland in last ten weeks,only one of the 5 predicted,was wet enough to interrupt work. No improvement in accuracy in the last 14 years I have been doing that business. Now , I just ignore there warnings, and work until rain actually does stop work. It's rare.

There seems to be a lot of Butt covering in their forecasts. Commercially, they are unreliable, for Auckland.

by KH | 24th Jan 25, 1:42pm 1737679351

Cannot mow now in Central Otago.

Because it will start a grass fire. So dry.

It does get the grass down, but also the house possibly at the same time.

by kiwimummma | 24th Jan 25, 10:39am 1737668368

I have appreciated interest.co.nz's political neutrality; reporting facts not opinions, and opinions are clearly indicated as such. It seems a rare quality amongst journalists these days as the MSM has only become a mouthpiece for propaganda. I am no Trump fan, but for people who are - that is their prerogative. The anti-Trump sentiment that has emerged on this site compromises its previous political neutrality and I'd encourage interest.co.nz to consider how this impacts interest.co.nz's cred.

by agnostium | 24th Jan 25, 11:00am 1737669601

First, the annual Davos meetings are underway, and today they were dominated by US Presidential bluster where we claimed he would force interest rates down, force the oil price down, and force other countries to "put America First". He also threatened any country who challenged the American FANGs with taxes on their activities in their own countries.

How is this anything other than objective reporting on factual things Trump said. If you are challenging the word 'bluster' then please explain how you would better describe what it is.

by Pa1nter | 24th Jan 25, 11:13am 1737670409

Imagine if objectivity precluded you from determining someone was a knob or not.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 24th Jan 25, 11:36am 1737671780

Commenting on the absurdity of Trumponomics is completely consistent with good journalism and is IMO political neutral.

People that think Trump is some economic miracle worker are living inside a MAGA bubble. They need to step out from time to time to see Trumponomic's short term "successes" won't benefit them anything like as much as those inside the MAGA bubble believe ... While the medium to longer term consequences will be horrific for them.

by Silvi | 24th Jan 25, 12:04pm 1737673488

Trump's burble on coal was another one for the ages. And calling for the price of oil to drop and then to tariff imports: then David calling the Davos speech bluster is actually quite kind. I am so pleased to learn that coal can never go away, weather bombing it will never go away.. So useful to have Trump 34 telling us!

by solardb | 24th Jan 25, 12:08pm 1737673719

Be interesting to know how many votes he got in the Eastern coal mining areas. After all the bluster in the last campaign, he did nothing for them.

by blobbles | 24th Jan 25, 1:22pm 1737678175

Nothing wrong with the statements above, it is bluster and he issued threats. If it was Biden saying that, pretty sure David would have written exactly the same.

by powerdownkiwi | 24th Jan 25, 4:00pm 1737687626

The MSM - DC included - fail by some orders of magnitude - but not in the particular angle you mention.

The joke is that energy underwrites money, 100%. And the energy cost of energy, is inexorably rising. So much so, that it now takes more than $1 of debt, to 'create' $! of GDP. And GDP was a bullsh-t count even before that; it fails to account inputs or outputs (real ones).

Energy cannot possible get 'cheaper' from here on in; not unless we all amass ever-more debt which will never be repaid.

Which will inevitable result in a system collapse via lack of faith.

No - repeat no - journalist in NZ, pointed out that connection. Not one. And several have no excust for not knowing...

by Palmtree08 | 24th Jan 25, 4:25pm 1737689109

"No - repeat no - journalist in NZ, pointed out that connection"

You largely summed it up with "system collapse via lack of faith"

Scattering the pigeons isn't good for advertising revenue, sooo.... expect the alternative reality narrative to continue long after weeds have grown around the Dodge Ram parked up where the tank ran dry.

by Zwifter | 24th Jan 25, 11:51am 1737672684

Its the beginning of the end for the USA, perfect timing and 4 years should do it. Basically resorting to threats and bullying now to try and make America great again.