Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news long term rates just keep on rising ahead of the change in the US Administration. And now the USD is slipping back.
First up however, the overnight GDT dairy Pulse auction brought the expected changes. The SMP price extended its recent rises, and the WMP price essentially held its full auction recovery. This event didn't signal any changes or concerns.
In the US, their Redbook retail pulse index rose 'only' +5% last week from the same week a year ago, but to be fair the base was strong. No unusual signals here either.
There were two January sentiment surveys out overnight. The NFIB one for SMEs was quite bullish and at a six year high. But the RCM/TIPP investor one went backwards unexpectedly, although it was off a 40 month high.
As expected, overall American producer prices rose, rising +3.3% from a year ago, although the rise wasn't quite as much as the +3.4% expected. While the lid was kept on by the unchanged services component, we need to keep an eye on the goods rise in December from November, which jumped +0.6% in the month, an unusually high shift. They won't want that to repeat.
In a new report, the US Congressional Budget Office is projecting a sharp change in American demographics if the cap in migration is enforced. American will join Japan, China and Europe by growing older quicker - and much quicker than previously expected. And while this aging is going on, population growth will stall out at 370 mln in 2055. The viability of safety net programs will involve difficult choices.
In China, their December new yuan loan data was released overnight and there is some impact from their recent stimulus efforts showing up here. It was expected to show a weak borrowing impulse, and it did, just not as weak as was anticipated. Chinese banks extended ¥990 bln in new loans in December, above ¥580 bln in November (which was the lowest since 2012) and above forecasts of ¥850 bln. Still this was the lowest December rise since 2017.
China is making a "stable yuan" a core policy objective. It is a stability against the USD they are managing.
A sidebar update for once highflying Evergrande Property development company; A PRC court has ruled it must make payments it hasn't the resources to make. And a Hong Kong court has ordered its liquidation. The next saga will be the legal proceedings against its auditor PwC by the liquidator.
And we should note that today is the start of their enormous internal annual migration. January 14 is the kickoff of their Spring Festival travel rush, as workers begin to head home for the long vacation over the Lunar New Year. The Golden Week holiday around this event formally starts on January 28 and runs until February 4. But people are on the move now - including for international vacations.
After slipping in December, the Westpac consumer sentiment survey for Australia slipped again in January. Homeowners and renters got more pessimistic about current conditions. But they are better than year-ago levels. And their forward looking views are positive now.
The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.81%, and up +4 bps from this time yesterday. This level is threatening their October 2023 high, and prior to that it is the highest since 2007. The key 2-10 yield curve is now positive by +43 bps. Their 1-5 curve is slightly more positive at +38 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve is unchanged, still by +49 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.70% and up +1 bp. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 1.66% and up +1 bp. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.79% and up another +7 bps, essentially matching the US equivalent.
Wall Street is in its Tuesday session and down -0.2% on the S&P500. Overnight, European markets were quite mixed with London down -0.3%, Frankfurt up +0.7% and Paris up +0.2%. Tokyo ended its Tuesday trade down -1.8%, Hong Kong was up +1.8% and Shanghai rose a very strong +2.5%. Singapore dipped -0.1%. The ASX200 ended its Tuesday recovering +0.5% while the NZX50 ended up +0.4%.
The price of gold will start today at US$2671/oz and up +US$6 from yesterday.
Oil prices are down -US$1 from yesterday at just over US$77.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just on US$80.
The Kiwi dollar starts today just on 56 USc and up +½c from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 90.5 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 54.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67 and up +40 bps from yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$95,517 and back up +3.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained high at +/- 3.3%.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
48 Comments
'The viability of safety net programs will involve difficult choices.'
By 2055, DC, there will be more 'difficult choices' than that.
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/
Scoping...
"difficult choices" depends on perspectives. We have already seen that US politicians are very self serving in power. They will just step up measures to entrench that power and further insulate themselves from population backlash. The lip service sops to assuage public angst will become more apparent as lacking substance. Trump may accelerate that process with the Republicans. The attack on the capitol was a warning though, ignore the public need at your peril.
But in the long run, globally a declining population is a good thing. Economics will need to adjust to accommodate that rather than perpetually spouting 'growth' BS. Sustainable stability should be the target.
Interesting about how a declining population works. In China with a population that is no longer increasing and is predicted to decrease there is a problem of young people being unemployed. No jobs for them.
Yet we have people claiming that there will not be enough young people to support the old, when population decreases. Will a decreasing population actually have that problem.
The US has been in residence since WW2 with military bases. Would be interesting to see how much that contributes to the Greenland economy vis a vis day by day services. Huge mass of land, small population in a relationship that has been ticking along seemingly compatibly. The USA is correct in maintaining the security of Greenland’s strategic importance but hard to see what else it could offer. On the other hand it should much easier to see what potential mineral wealth might be extractable shouldn’t it.
'Is now showing interest' The US first tried to buy Greenland in 1867 following the purchase of Alaska. . US has had a large footprint there for years with continual discussions about the relationship. Trump just being Trump spouting on about something he just heard about.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_Thule_Air_Base_B-52_crash
Little known fact...the US nearly nuked Greenland in 1968.
(Just 2 years after an incident in Spain https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1966_Palomares_incident)
The bond market sell-off continues, with the New Zealand 2y government bond yield rising to 3.76%, up 19bps from its Jan 3rd low of 3.57%.
If central banks set their cash rates near the 2y government bond yields, then a 0.5% cut is the most they can implement. If the 2y continues to sell off before Feb 19, then a cut could be off the table?
Even our friend Tony might be joining Team HFL. The bond market won't give him a choice.
"Tony Alexander: US punctures Kiwi hopes of cheaper mortgages in 2025"
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/tony-alexander-us-punctures-kiwi-hopes-o…
Thanks, and to the dispair of many, it looks like I called it right again:
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/131466/economists-see-latest-nzier-q…
I was musing that a bank may change its forecast to 25bps soon... Orr hates going back on what he has said though, he is stubborn.
But a 50 here means there is an outside chance he may have to hike down the path...to stop a falling NZD, and its much easier not to have a collapsing NZD in the first place.
Talking to a friend last night who has split with partner, they have two investment properties that where on market most of last year, removed Dec, about to put back on.... have another friend that bought place next to them in Glendowie but there are issues with stormwater and sewage and they cannot bowl both and build townhouses, it was also taken off market Dec will be back on soon.
There is a bucket of higher end property, mostly land value, that will take big drops to move. I can see this pushing the averages achieved down this year, but the lower end property may not fall to much further. i think the mediums be somewhere in between these results.
I do not see overall NZ Wide gains this year.
Things are dire outside the housing market as well. IRD has reportedly stepped up liquidations to recoup unpaid taxes from businesses.
This comes after years of applying a somewhat soft touch on tax compliance, at least since the onset of Covid. Overdue tax debt has more than doubled between 2020 and June 2024 to over $8b (7% of tax revenue).
True. Economists often use a euphemism that a weaker NZD will help "rebalance" our large trade/CA deficit.
Lower for longer NZD will lead to higher import prices across the board and gradually eat into any household savings from the drop in mortgage rates seen over the last 6 months.
Food and fibre make up 11% of the GDP, so the export gains from low NZD is going to remain concentrated compared to the impact of costlier imports that every household relies on.
They’re in to me at the moment. Are refusing to accept my alcohol costs as a business expense. It has become quite an involved dispute (no idea why) however they’ve agreed to waive penalties if it is not resolved in the next couple of weeks. It’s simple really. I cannot day trade without day drinking. The alcohol is therefore the major component (and cost) to my success. They should think themselves fortunate that I have let them off the night costs as in reality I spend every waking moment looking out for a deal.
Same here. I'll be about 20-30% down in terms of tax the business is paying (when comparing what I owe provisionally to projected performance).
What does blow my mind is how so many businesses seem to get away with not paying tax for so long. I feel bad if I pay my GST or provisional tax in the evening on the day it's due ... feel like the IRD will come kick my door down and waterboard me for the payment only just making it on time, and then you hear about some business going into liquidation having owed six, seven figures in tax for yonks and wonder how they got away with it?
For example, I had trouble with an ex-client paying me for a while. Eventually I hassled them enough that they coughed up just to get me to go away. Looked up the company a few months later on the register and they were placed into liquidation, owing the IRD $150k in tax arrears.
What is extraordinary is the so called businesses that post loss after loss and offset these to personal income. Prolific with lifestyle blocks. Applies to both income tax and gst.
The IR tend to focus n the folk with good records so they can audit easily (to the irritation of CA's). Much harder to audit someone who has made a hash of the books - if they even have any. Hours of work for the IR and often ends with damn all tax recovered.
I’m with ya there. Down 20% yoy. Just had a large construction based competitor with 6+ staff call me asking if he could offload any staff to my business to help him out as they’re very quiet. I could hear the desperation in his voice. Survive til 2025 with false optimism all along, anyone with half a brain could have worked that out.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.